Current location - Education and Training Encyclopedia - Graduation thesis - Lecture 005- Uncertainty, Evolution and Economic Theory
Lecture 005- Uncertainty, Evolution and Economic Theory
From 65438 to 0950, Aqin published a paper entitled Uncertainty, Evolution and Economic Theory in the Journal of Political Economy. This is a very important economics paper, which has found a solid foundation for the whole building of economics, and therefore has become one of the most cited articles in economics. Aqin initiated the study of economic activities and economic systems through Darwin's evolutionary viewpoint.

The survival of all things depends on conditions, and has nothing to do with rationality or not.

The world is full of uncertainty. From the statistical point of view, as long as there is uncertainty, it is impossible for people to calculate the optimal solution, and there is only one optimal probability interval at most.

Economics is concerned with the conditions of survival: how a person, an organization or even a system can survive, and what conditions are needed for survival. These have nothing to do with whether people are rational or not.

The rules of the game determine the probability of winning or losing.

As Archin said, when the environment changes, analysts can know which type of participants will succeed. If we change the rules, we can know the difference of winning or losing probability. For example, the rules of basketball have changed and players have to wear high heels, so we can predict that Lin Chi-ling is probably better than Jordan.

think

(1) The times make heroes, and the environment is very important for a person's success; Heroes create situations, and rulemakers take the initiative in social operation; Assess the situation, correctly judge your situation, and customize your own secret of success. Don't blindly follow the crowd, and don't be maverick for the sake of maverick.

(2) Rules are a screening mechanism, which can eliminate people outside the rules and consolidate and safeguard the rights and interests within the rules. Therefore, rulemakers have undoubtedly become a beacon. No matter which industry, it is a great honor to be a participant or leader in rulemaking. It is a great achievement for an individual to become an authority in a certain field; A country must be a strong country if it can have a place in international exchanges and a considerable right to speak.

(3) We can't decide 95% of things in life, such as our origins, our IQ and our opportunities. This is why when we achieve something, we should thank our own strength, which is why we must give back to the society after we achieve something. Because what we get may not really belong to us. We are born with different scripts. No matter whether the script is good or bad, we should try our best to interpret it. Sometimes a bad deck of cards can be played brilliantly. What we get bit by bit is often paid by many others, so we should always be grateful. In a regular system, when we desperately draw strength to climb, don't forget to turn around and give others some warmth and strength.