Before 2003, Japan was China's largest trading partner. Although it was later surpassed by the United States and the European Union, the exchanges were still very frequent. At the same time, China and Japan are two economic powers in the world, and their economic and trade relations have an important impact on the economic development of China, Japan, East Asia and even the world.
On July 2, 2005, China began to implement a managed floating exchange rate system based on market supply and demand and with reference to a basket of currencies. In addition, there are international demands for RMB appreciation, and some countries, such as Japan, have started a trade war with China, believing that the undervalued RMB will affect the normal exchanges between China and Japan. China government has always adhered to an independent exchange rate mechanism. After a long time, the RMB began to appreciate slowly against the US dollar. Whether RMB appreciation can improve Sino-Japanese trade needs further study.
I. Analysis of RMB exchange rate against Japanese yen
From the data of RMB exchange rate against Japanese yen from 2002 to September 2007, we can see that the development trend of RMB exchange rate against Japanese yen during this period can be divided into two stages. From June 2002 to March 2005, the RMB depreciated against the Japanese yen. Since March 2005, the RMB has generally appreciated against the Japanese yen. In the process of these two trends, the exchange rate of RMB against Japanese yen fluctuated.
Second, the development of Sino-Japanese trade in recent years
In the long run, the scale of import and export trade between China and Japan is on the rise, which can be seen from the changes in the absolute value and relative value of import and export trade between the two countries. After four years of development, the total trade volume in 2006 was US$ 207.36 billion, and in 2002 it was US$1010/billion, which more than doubled in 2006 compared with 2002. The average growth rate from 2002 to March 2005 was 20.6%, while the average growth rate since March 2005 was 1 1.2%. The growth rate from 2002 to March 2005 was obviously faster than that from 2005 to the present.
In addition, the trade structure between China and Japan has also undergone significant changes. The performance is as follows: the proportion of primary commodities in China's exports to Japan is declining. China's exports to Japan are mainly labor-intensive products such as textiles, while Japan's exports to China are mostly capital-intensive products such as electronic products. At present, the proportion of primary products in China's exports to Japan is getting smaller and smaller. In 2000, the proportion of primary products still accounted for 60%, and in 2004 it has dropped to 16.3%. In 2003, the proportion of manufactured goods exported to Japan reached 84.5%, of which high-tech and high-value-added machinery and transportation equipment accounted for 35.6%.
Third, the impact of the exchange rate change of RMB against Japanese yen on Sino-Japanese trade.
According to Marshall-Lerner condition, as long as the sum of demand price elasticity of export commodities and demand price elasticity of import commodities is greater than 1, the depreciation of local currency can improve the trade balance. Bi Ke's Dick-Robinson-Metzler condition holds that whether and to what extent the devaluation of the local currency can improve the trade balance depends not only on the demand price elasticity of import and export commodities, but also on the supply price elasticity of import and export commodities.
From 2002 to March 2005, the RMB depreciated against the Japanese yen. During this period, Sino-Japanese trade grew rapidly. Since March 2005, the RMB has shown an overall appreciation trend against the Japanese yen. During this period, the growth rate of Sino-Japanese trade dropped significantly. In this sense, the appreciation of RMB against Japanese yen is not conducive to the development of Sino-Japanese trade. However, it did not affect the further growth of the total import and export volume of Sino-Japanese trade.
In addition, from 2002 to March 2005, the growth rate of China's imports to Japan was higher than that of its exports. It can be seen that the appreciation of RMB is relatively beneficial to imports and is not conducive to exports. Because after the appreciation of RMB, the price of foreign goods measured by RMB is relatively cheap. Of course, most of these goods are capital-intensive goods.
Generally speaking, if the RMB continues to appreciate, it will slow down the growth of Sino-Japanese trade, but the import and export volume of Sino-Japanese trade will not decrease and will continue to grow at a relatively slow rate.
In these two trends, the exchange rate of RMB against Japanese yen fluctuates. From August 2005 to June 2005, the RMB depreciated by 0.06% against the Japanese yen. At the same time, exports and imports to Japan have decreased relatively. Among them, exports to Japan decreased by 1. 14%, and imports to Japan decreased by 3. 1%. In addition, 65438+from February 2005 to February 2006, from April 2006 to June 2006 and so on. The RMB depreciated against the Japanese yen, and the import and export to Japan declined to some extent. From August 2006 to June 2006, the RMB appreciated against the Japanese yen, while the import and export volume to Japan declined. From June 2006 to February 2006, RMB appreciated against Japanese yen, but its import and export to Japan increased.
China and Japan are both big exporting countries with strong production capacity. Compared with domestic consumption capacity, it is overcapacity. Therefore, we can think that the supply elasticity of the two countries is quite large, and even think that its supply elasticity is infinite, thus satisfying the Marshall-Lerner condition. Then the depreciation of exchange rate can cause the increase of import and export, and the appreciation can cause the decrease of import and export. However, when the RMB appreciates against the Japanese yen, it is accompanied by an increase and a decrease in the import and export volume to Japan; When the RMB depreciates against Japan, both the import and export of trade with Japan increase. Obviously, this does not match.
Generally speaking, there is no stable relationship between the exchange rate of RMB against Japanese yen and the change of trade volume with Japan.
Four. conclusion and suggestion
1. In the long run, the appreciation of RMB against Japanese yen will not affect the absolute growth of Sino-Japanese trade, but will affect the growth of Sino-Japanese import and export.
2. In the short term, there is no stable relationship between RMB appreciation against Japanese yen and Sino-Japanese trade.
3. Due to the great complementarity between China and Japan, China's imports to Japan are mostly capital-intensive products, while its exports to Japan are mostly labor-intensive products. With the continuous appreciation of RMB exchange rate, it is relatively cheap for China to import high-tech products from Japan. Therefore, we should seize this opportunity to accelerate the transformation of trade structure, improve the technical content of products and accelerate the adjustment of industrial structure.
In recent years, although the economic and trade development between China and Japan is generally good, friction exists objectively. In 2002, there was disagreement on the issue of pesticide residues in vegetables exported from China to Japan. In 2004 and 2005, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry issued the White Paper on Japanese Trade, calling on Japanese enterprises to pay attention to reducing the loss of high technology and dependence on the China market when investing in China. Therefore, it is necessary to strengthen the economic strategic dialogue between China and Japan, form a high-level consultation mechanism in the economic field between the two countries, and make the economies of the two countries develop in a better and faster direction.