On February 25th, Guanghua School of Management of Peking University and Institute of Economic Policy of Peking University jointly held the "Economic Situation and Policy Outlook Analysis Meeting before the two sessions". Eight Guanghua scholars were invited to share the theme.
The following is a summary of these opinions:
Qiao Liu: the key task during the tenth five-year plan period
Qiao Liu, Dean of Guanghua School of Management, Peking University, Professor of Finance Department. Distinguished professor is a Changjiang Scholar of the Ministry of Education and an outstanding young winner of the National Natural Science Foundation.
Liu Qiao pointed out that there are the following key tasks during the 14 th Five-Year Plan period: First, increase the growth rate of total factor productivity; The second is to establish a strong domestic market and give play to the basic role of consumption; Third, increase the proportion of residents' income and eliminate the dual structure of urban and rural areas; Fourth, China is moving upstream of the global value chain; Fifth, strengthen the strength of R&D and increase the proportion of basic science R&D; Sixth, promote market-oriented reform and improve the efficiency of optimal allocation of resources; Seventh, we began to optimize and reshape the energy structure and industrial structure around the time points of "peak carbon dioxide emission" and "carbon neutrality".
Liu Qiao emphasized that the future growth momentum should be tilted towards "improving total factor productivity", and re-industrialization, new infrastructure, big country industry and higher level of reform and opening up will become the focus. In addition, when it comes to the next development blueprint, we should pay attention to one statement, that is, to play the "basic" role of consumption. Increasing residents' income is the key to increasing consumption, and eliminating the dual structure between urban and rural areas is the key to increasing residents' income.
Color: 202 1 macroeconomic and policy trends
Color, associate professor of Guanghua School of Management, Peking University, and deputy director of Institute of Economic Policy, Peking University. He has presided over and participated in the research projects of the Central Financial and Economic Leading Group, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Health and other national ministries and commissions, and won instructions from national leaders and commendation from relevant ministries and commissions.
Professor Color said that the sustainability of 202 1 export depends on overseas epidemic situation, which may show a trend of high before and low after, and the economic growth rate will fall back quarter by quarter, and the annual growth rate is still expected to exceed 8%. The GDP growth target is still important at present, and the economic growth target should be balanced to avoid ups and downs in the next few years.
The emergency policy of 202 1 should be gradually withdrawn, and the countercyclical adjustment policy need not be withdrawn in a hurry. Macroeconomic policies in the post-epidemic era need to strengthen precision drip irrigation, improve quality and efficiency, and better serve the national strategy and the national economy and people's livelihood. In the post-epidemic era, emergency fiscal policies such as special national debt, taxation, social security and welfare should gradually return to normalization, counter-cyclical fiscal policies should be adjusted steadily and gradually, and special debt can play a greater role. At the same time, monetary policy should gradually realize a normal turn, avoid a sharp turn in policy, pay more attention to broad inflation and prevent bubbles.
Li Zhouan: High-standard Market System and Factor Marketization
Li Zhouan, vice president of Guanghua School of Management, Peking University, professor and doctoral supervisor of the Department of Applied Economics, director of undergraduate/postgraduate programs, dean of the School of Business Administration of Peking University, distinguished professor, Changjiang Scholar of the Ministry of Education.
Professor Li Zhou 'an analyzed that at the end of June 5438+ 10 this year, the Central Office and the State Council issued the Action Plan for Building a High-standard Market System, which further reflected China's coping strategies and ideas based on seeking growth momentum from within and deepening the reform dividend. The new development pattern will be based on the dual deepening of market-oriented reform: the deep expansion from commodity market to factor market; Horizontal integration from domestic market to international market.
How to put the action plan into practice? Looking at the reform process of China in the past 40 years, any reform that incites local competition is relatively easy to achieve its goal. We can consider some reform items that are suitable for local governments to take the initiative to evaluate the performance of local officials, or rank the reform performance, which is both incentive and pressure; Encourage local governments to innovate, allow them to try first, and those who innovate first will benefit first, while giving local officials room for fault tolerance; First, focus on a few key reform areas, take the lead in breaking through, and gradually advance from point to area.
Xu Xianping: Policy Thinking on Domestic Big Cycle and New Urbanization
Counselor of the State Council Counselor's Office, distinguished professor of Guanghua School of Management, Peking University, and Xu Xianping, former deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission; Doctor of Management Engineering, Hunan University, visiting scholar at Kennedy School, Harvard University; Deputies to the 9th, 10th and 11th National People's Congress, and members of the 12th China People's Political Consultative Conference.
Professor Xu Xianping pointed out that the low consumption rate of residents is the blocking point of smooth domestic circulation, the new urbanization is the basic point of smooth domestic circulation, and the new urbanization with people as the core is the biggest domestic demand. At present, there are 65.438+35 billion migrant workers in cities, and 52 million migrant workers have lived in the same town for more than 65.438+00 years. It is suggested that the urbanization of agricultural transfer population should be accelerated by "increment of stock belt". Urbanization is the only way to modernization, and China's urbanization is still in the stage of accelerated development. At present, the annual income of migrant workers has exceeded that of urban residents and is about three times that of rural residents, which is a potential goal of expanding middle-income groups. Therefore, only by reducing the number of farmers can farmers get rich and rich farmers expand domestic demand.
Facing the core needs of migrant workers, Professor Xu Xianping put forward three major policy measures: First, vigorously strengthen the construction of affordable rental housing; The second measure is to fully guarantee the education of the children who move with them; The third measure is to accelerate the equalization of basic public services, which is also the core of urbanization of agricultural transfer population and reform of household registration system.
Tang Yao: Challenges and opportunities for industrial and regional economic development brought by the commitment of peak carbon dioxide emission.
Tang Yao, associate professor, Department of Applied Economics, Guanghua School of Management, Peking University. From 2009 to 2065438+07, he taught at Bowdoin College in the United States and obtained tenure. His main research interests are macroeconomics, international economics and corporate strategy of China.
The 14th Five-Year Plan emphasizes that China will achieve "carbon dioxide emission peak" in 2030 and "carbon neutrality" in 2060. Professor Tang Yao believes that this goal is feasible, and it is necessary to reduce carbon emissions and build carbon capture capacity in the future.
From the industrial point of view, coal in fossil energy production should reach its peak first; Accelerate the development of renewable non-nuclear energy and non-fossil energy; Improve energy efficiency; Industry should develop to the upstream of industrial chain and value chain; Accelerate the development of service industry. From a regional perspective, energy production is concentrated in advantageous areas; Adjust the energy production structure of traditional energy provinces; Areas lacking advantages in technology and cost should speed up energy production capacity.
Specifically, it is necessary to comprehensively use market and policy means, on the one hand, accelerate the construction of carbon emissions trading market and reasonably price carbon emissions. On the other hand, we should adjust the energy structure, industrial structure and energy efficiency through policies, arrange financial funds to support green development-related projects, study the tax system related to carbon emission reduction, guide funds to flow to green development areas, and develop green financial products.
Zhang Zheng: Looking at the Capital Market Reform from the Performance of A-share Market
Zhang Zheng, finance professor and vice president of Guanghua School of Management, Peking University, doctoral supervisor, deputy director of Peking University National Financial Research Center, and executive director of China Real Estate Investment Trust Fund Research Center of Guanghua School of Management, Peking University. Professor Zhang Zheng's main research areas are financial markets and institutions, real estate finance and asset management.
Professor Zhang Zheng summed up the achievements and shortcomings of the A-share market from six aspects: the A-share market has developed rapidly in the past 30 years, but its relative scale is not high, and there is still huge room for development in the future; The proportion of capital gains in A-share investment returns is too high, and there is a lack of equity investment products with high dividend ratio; Judging from the price discovery function, A shares still have many shortcomings; The overall quality of listed companies is not high, and the market has not formed an effective elimination mechanism; Personal short-term investment and irrational trading behavior erode investment income, and A shares lack long-term funds; We should treat the A-share registration system rationally, showing the characteristics of high first-day increase, high average price-earnings ratio and high turnover rate, and the market evolution needs a process.
In view of the focus of the next stage of reform, he believes that, first of all, adhere to the pilot registration system and improve the normalized and multi-channel delisting system; Second, further improve the quality of listed companies; Third, promote the pilot project of infrastructure public offering REITs to form a demonstration effect. Fourth, promote the reform of the investment side of the capital market and the implementation of the individual pension account policy, and optimize the medium and long-term capital market environment.
Zhang Qinghua: Coordinated Development of Urban Agglomeration and Cities and Per Capita Welfare
Zhang Qinghua is a professor and doctoral supervisor in the Department of Applied Economics, Guanghua School of Management, Peking University. Her main research interests include urban economics, public finance, search and matching, and applied econometrics.
Professor Zhang Qinghua said that according to the theory of urban economics, under given conditions, with the increase of the total urban population, the per capita welfare first increases and then decreases, that is, the inverted U-shaped relationship. So every city has an optimal scale.
But in 20 10, the population size of about 88% prefecture-level cities is less than 40% of the optimal size. Most cities are under-populated and a few cities are over-populated, resulting in huge welfare losses. More than half of the cities lost more than 30% of their welfare, and 22% lost more than 44%.
High-quality urbanization urgently needs to form a reasonable urban system. The coordinated development of urban agglomerations and cities is expected to become a breakthrough. In order to give full play to the synergistic effect of urban agglomeration, first, improve the factor market and improve the efficiency of factor allocation in urban agglomeration; Second, reasonably arrange and coordinate the industrial development within the urban agglomeration and optimize the industrial structure; Third, optimize the internal spatial structure of megacities in urban agglomerations.
Chen Yuyu: Two Challenges of China's Long-term Economic Growth
Chen Yuyu, Professor of Applied Economics Department of Guanghua School of Management, Peking University, Director of Economic Policy Research Institute of Peking University. 20 14 won the Outstanding Youth Award of the National Natural Science Foundation, and 20 16 was selected as the Changjiang Scholar distinguished professor of the Ministry of Education.
Professor Chen Yuyu believes that in the next fifteen years, China's long-term economic growth will face two major challenges: uneven income distribution and aging population.
In the past 30-40 years, the global income gap has been widening. The widening of this gap is reflected in three aspects. First, the income gap between countries is widening (excluding the China factor); Second, the income gap between different groups in most countries is expanding rapidly; Third, the income gap between different income groups is unbalanced, especially between high-income groups and the public.
In addition, we are also facing the challenge of solving the problem of providing for the aged with a huge population. The population over 65 years old accounts for 15 to 65 years old, which is called "dependency ratio". At present, this ratio is 18%, and it will reach 25% by 2035, which means that four working people need to support 1 elderly.
How to deal with two major challenges? First, reform the income distribution system and design policies that give consideration to efficiency and fairness; Second, give full play to the power of state-owned assets and adjust the income distribution structure; Third, promote the equalization of education and reasonably evaluate the impact of fiscal expenditure on income distribution.