How to understand the current international economic situation

The current world economic development can be described as "ice and fire": the prospect of economic recovery in developed countries is unpredictable, and the economic development of emerging market countries is facing overheating; Developed economies such as Europe, America and Japan are trying to adopt a looser monetary policy, while emerging market countries have started the process of raising interest rates, and monetary policy tends to tighten. The IMF's forecast of the world real estate market is pessimistic, and it thinks that the real estate market bubble in developing countries represented by China is serious. Developed countries demand RMB appreciation for the purpose of restoring trade balance, international trade friction intensifies, and business risks of foreign trade enterprises rise.

20 1 1 year international economic situation

In the World Economic Outlook published in June 20 10, the IMF believes that the world economic growth rate in the first half of 20 10 is 5.25%, which is 0.5 percentage points higher than the previous forecast. It is predicted that the world economic growth rate will be 4.8% in 20 10 and 4.2% in 201year. The IMF also predicts that the economic growth rate of developed economies will be 2.7% in 20 10 and 2.2% in 201year. The current financial crisis led to a 3.2% decline in the economic development of developed countries in 2009. Generally speaking, the economic recovery of developed countries, which occupy an important position in the world economy, is the premise of the world economic recovery.

The American economy is slowly recovering, and high unemployment rate and depressed real estate industry are the biggest obstacles to economic recovery. The American economy achieved 3.7% growth in the second quarter of 20 10. Although it decreased by 1. 1% compared with the previous quarter, it has achieved growth for four consecutive quarters, indicating that the economy has begun to recover. In addition, the leading indicator of the US economy-PMI (Purchasing Managers Index, published by Institute of Supply Management every month)-was 54.4 in September, which has exceeded the watershed of economic expansion and contraction of 50 in 14 months, indicating that the US economy will continue to expand in the future.

However, the unemployment rate in the United States in September was 9.6%, which was the same as that in August and about 4 percentage points higher than that before the crisis, posing a threat to the consumption-driven economic growth in the United States. The data shows that the median sales of existing homes in the United States decreased by 1.9% in August, which was 23% lower than the highest price before the crisis. Sales of existing homes decreased by 27% in July, while sales in August only increased by 8.55%. This shows that the withdrawal of housing subsidy policy has had a huge impact on the real estate market. It is predicted that house prices in the United States will still fluctuate at the bottom in 2065, and the economic recovery in the United States, which is plagued by the sluggish real estate market and high unemployment rate, will "falter". The IMF predicts that the economic growth rate of the United States will be 2.7% this year and 2.2% next year, but it is unlikely that the economy will double bottom.

The economic recovery in the euro zone is weaker than that in the United States, and the risk of sovereign debt has laid a hidden danger for medium and long-term growth. In the first two quarters of 20 10, the GDP of the euro zone (calculated at constant prices) increased slightly by 1. 1% and 2.4% respectively, and came out of recession for five consecutive quarters. Judging from the leading indicators of economy, in September of 2065,438+00, PMI had been higher than 50 for 12 months. It is predicted that in the third quarter of 20 10, the euro zone will still achieve growth of about 2%. The IMF predicts that the economic growth rate of the euro zone this year will be 1.7%, 1 1.

The main challenge of economic growth in the euro zone is the sovereign debt risk of member countries. It is found that while the European Central Bank and IMF provide hundreds of billions of euros of aid to Greece, the European Union has launched a rescue plan of up to 750 billion euros, which will reduce the sovereign debt risk faced by the euro zone in the short term, but the sovereign debt of the euro zone member countries will be concentrated in the medium term. At that time, the market liquidity risk will rise, and the difficulty and cost of refinancing will increase. The risk of sovereign debt may spread to financial institutions, and the fragility of the financial market in the euro zone will become more obvious. In addition, the unemployment rate in the euro zone in August was 10. 1%, which remained the highest level since the crisis for four consecutive months and became one of the main obstacles to economic recovery. High unemployment rate, sovereign debt risk and financial market fragility have become potential threats to economic growth in the euro zone, and the risk of double dip in the euro zone has increased.

The risk of double dip in Japan's economy is rising, and the highest debt ratio in the world increases the uncertainty of financial markets. In the second quarter of 20 10, Japan's GDP only increased by 0.4%, and the economic prosperity index (manufacturing PMI index) fell for four consecutive months. In September, it fell below the watershed of expansion and contraction for the first time, indicating that Japan's economy is likely to fall into recession again in the future.

The main obstacles to Japan's economic recovery include: (1) the rapid and sharp appreciation of the yen against the US dollar has curbed exports. Since May 20 10, the exchange rate of Japanese yen against the US dollar has risen from 1: 95 to the current 1: 80, with an appreciation rate as high as 16%. The appreciation of the yen led to a decrease in Japan's exports in August 12%. (2) The unemployment rate is still at a high level since the crisis, which has restrained the growth of domestic consumption. Japan's unemployment rate in August was 5. 1%, which was 1.3 percentage points higher than before the crisis. Although the unemployment rate was lower than that in Europe and America at that time, considering the low female employment rate in Japan (about 15 percentage points lower than that in northern Europe), the unemployment situation in Japan was still quite severe. (3) The ratio of national debt to GDP exceeds 200%, the attraction of zero benchmark interest rate to international capital decreases, and the risk of Japanese sovereign debt increases. Although the Japanese yen, as an international reserve currency, reduces the default risk faced by bond investors, Japan's economy is sluggish, its population is aging, and its monetary policy is close to failure. In the future, the possibility that the Japanese government will repay its debts by issuing additional currency will increase, thus increasing the inflation risk in Japan in the future. This paper predicts that Japan's economy may experience negative growth in the fourth quarter of 20 10, and the road to recovery in the future is difficult.

According to the IMF's forecast, the economic growth rate of emerging market countries in 20 10 is 7. 1%, and it is 6.4% in 201year, which is significantly higher than that of developed countries. Emerging market countries will maintain rapid growth this year and next because of their relatively small economic base, abundant and cheap labor, low degree of internationalization of financial markets and limited impact by the international financial crisis, but signs of overheating have emerged.

Thanks to the rebound in resource commodity prices, Russia's economy has recovered rapidly. Russia, one of the BRIC countries, saw a GDP growth rate of 5.2% in the second quarter of 20 10, which was 1.3 percentage points higher than the first quarter. Judging from the PMI index, except for September, which was slightly lower than 50, the comprehensive PMI of the past year was higher than 50, which indicates that the Russian economy has been expanding. As crude oil and other resource commodities occupy an important position in the Russian economy, international oil prices have rebounded sharply compared with the crisis period, and food prices have also shown an upward trend, resulting in a substantial year-on-year increase in Russian exports. This paper predicts that the Russian economy will maintain a recovery trend.

Brazil's economy continues to grow rapidly, but the pressure of hot money inflow increases. Brazil has the fastest economic growth among the BRIC countries, with the economic growth rate exceeding 15% in the first two quarters of 20 10. Even during the financial crisis, Brazil's economy still maintained a growth rate of more than 6%, and the leading economic indicator PMI also showed that Brazil's economy will continue to maintain rapid growth. However, Brazil raised interest rates three times in a row to curb economic overheating, which made overnight rate as high as 10.75%, far higher than the benchmark interest rates of major international currencies. High interest rate is a huge "temptation" to international hot money. Although the Brazilian government has introduced relevant measures to control the inflow of hot money, the effect is not ideal, and Brazil's exchange rate mechanism will face the test of hot money shock in the future.

India's economy continues to grow at a high speed, but inflationary pressure is high. India's GDP growth rate was above10 in the first two quarters of 20 10. As the PMI of service industry was 55.6 in September, which was higher than 50 for 12 months in a row, this paper predicts that India will still maintain rapid growth in the future, but at present, India's CPI is as high as 10%, and the interbank lending rate is as high as 6.6 1%.

Investment in the real estate market in developed countries has collapsed, and house prices will be at a low level in the next five years. The real estate cycle in developed countries in the past decade is obviously different from the historical economic cycle, because the changes in the real estate cycle have been strengthened by bank credit. Loose monetary conditions and unconstrained financial innovation make it easier for families to raise funds, which in turn enlarges their investment leverage. De-leverage has made the current real estate recession "unprecedented" in macroeconomic impact. The process of household deleveraging is much slower than that of companies or financial institutions, because the real estate value in household balance sheets accounts for an absolute proportion, and it is more difficult to sell houses than stocks and bonds. Therefore, the recovery of the real estate market is more difficult than the recession recovery caused by the company's balance sheet related problems.

The recovery in Spain and Ireland is even slower. The interaction between real estate market demand and credit supply has contributed to the excessive prosperity of the real estate industry in these two countries, resulting in an "abnormally high" proportion of real estate in all industries and distorting the allocation of social resources. At the end of 2006, the real estate industry in Spain and Ireland accounted for 65,438+02% and 65,438+00% of the economic added value respectively, while the average ratio in the euro zone was 7%. The recession of the excessively "prosperous" real estate industry has directly led to a sharp drop in output and a sharp rise in unemployment rate. At present, the unemployment rate in Spain exceeds 20%.

Comparing the current real estate cycle with the economic cycle, it is found that the trend of real estate price and private consumption expenditure in developed countries is basically consistent with the historical trend. House prices have stabilized and private consumption has gradually recovered, but real estate investment is still far below the historical level, and the recovery is very slow. Historically, real estate investment in developed countries has a positive correlation with the trend of housing prices, with a correlation coefficient of about 0.3. IMF predicts that real estate prices in developed countries will return to basic values in the next five years, with an annual decline of 0.5% ~ 1.5%. During this period, real estate investment will continue to be sluggish.

There will be another bubble in Asia. For Canada in the Asia-Pacific region and some countries in northern Europe, house prices and real estate investment have rebounded sharply since 2009, but it remains to be seen whether the rebound can be sustained. At present, the ratio of house price to rent and the ratio of house price to income in these countries are still higher than the historical average, and econometric models show that house prices have seriously deviated from the basic value. For some Asian countries and regions, such as China, Singapore and Hongkong, although the economies of these countries and regions have basically supported high housing prices, due to the lack of relevant verification, this support may not be credible. The rising vacancy rate, the expansion of mortgage scale and the massive inflow of foreign capital (especially into China) mean that the real estate market is overheated, and the housing prices in Beijing, Shanghai, Nanjing and Shenzhen deviate from the basic value more seriously than those in other cities.

Compared with the past economic recovery, the hope of relying on real estate to promote the sustained growth of the overall economy is even more slim. In developed countries where house prices are still depressed, the high unemployment rate and foreclosure rate still restrict the recovery of house prices; In developing countries where real estate prices and housing investment rebound, the fear of bubbles will curb the role of the real estate industry in economic growth in the short term.