The future computer technology will develop in the direction of ultra-high-speed, ultra-small, parallel punishment and intelligence. Despite the physical limitations, the performance of the focus CPU of computers using silicon chips will continue to grow. As a successful enterprise model driven by Moore's Law, it is estimated that Inter will introduce 65.438+billion transistor microprocessing penalty in 2006 and 65.438+billion transistor microprocessing penalty in 2065.438+00, with a performance of 65.438+billion MIPS (65.438+billion instructions per second). Supercomputers with 100 trillion times per second will appear at the beginning of this century. Ultra-high-speed computers will adopt parallel processing and punishment technology, so that the computer system can execute multiple instructions at the same time or handle and punish multiple data. This is the key technology to improve the computer structure and speed.
At the same time, the computer will have more intelligent components, and it will have a variety of perceptual abilities, certain thinking and judgment abilities, and certain natural language abilities. In addition to providing natural hand-eye input (such as voice input and handwriting input), various interactive devices that can make people feel immersive have appeared, and virtual reality technology is the concentrated embodiment of the development in this field.
The storage capacity of traditional magnetic storage and optical disk is increasing, and the new mass storage technology tends to be mature. The storage capacity of the new storage can reach 10tb per cubic centimeter (based on a book with 300,000 words, it can store about150,000 books). The permanent storage of information will also become a reality, and the Millennium memory is being studied and manufactured. Such a memory can resist interference, high temperature, shock, water and corrosion. If this is the case, today's large number of documents can be preserved as they are and will be immortal.
New computer systems are constantly emerging.
The rapid development of silicon wafer technology also means that silicon technology is getting closer to its physical limit. For this reason, researchers all over the world are stepping up research and development of new computers, and computers will have a quantitative change or even a qualitative change from the reform of architecture to the revolution of devices and technologies. New quantum computer, optical quantum computer, life computer, nano computer, etc. Will come into our lives in the 2 1 century, covering all fields.
quantum computer
Quantum computer is developed based on quantum effect. It uses the characteristics of a chain-like molecular polymer to represent the switching state, and uses laser pulses to change the state of molecules, so that information moves along the polymer, thus carrying out cross operation.
Data in quantum computers are stored in qubits. Due to the quantum superposition effect, a qubit can be 0 or 1, or both 0 and 1 can be stored. Therefore, a qubit can store two data, and the storage capacity of a quantum computer is much larger than that of an ordinary computer with the same number of bits. At the same time, quantum computer can realize quantum parallel computing, and its operation speed may be 65.438+0 billion times faster than the Pentium III chip of personal computer at present. There are three kinds of quantum computers being developed: nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) quantum computers, silicon-based semiconductor quantum computers and ion trap quantum computers. It is expected that quantum computers will be popularized in 2030.
Optical quantum computer
Optical quantum computer is an all-optical digital computer, which uses optical quantum instead of electrons, optical interconnection instead of wire interconnection, optical hardware instead of electronic hardware, and optical operation instead of electrical operation.
Compared with electronic computers, the parallel channel density of "wireless computer" information notification of optical computers is extremely high. A triangular prism with a diameter of 5 cents is many times larger than the existing telephone cables in the world. The parallelism and high speed of light naturally determine that the parallel processing punishment ability of optical computer is very strong and it has ultra-high speed operation. Ultra-high-speed electronic computers can only do things at low temperature, while optical computers can do things at room temperature. Optical computers also have the same fault tolerance as human brains. When a component in the system is damaged or degraded, it will not affect the final calculation result.
At present, the world's first optical computer has been successfully developed by more than 70 scientists from Britain, France, Belgium, Germany and Italy in Europe, and its operation speed is 1000 times faster than that of electronic computers. Scientists predict that the further research and manufacture of optical computers will become one of the high-tech topics in the 2 1 century.
Life substance computer (molecular computer)
The running process of life computer is the interaction between amino acid molecules and surrounding physical and chemical media. The switch of the computer is operated by enzymes, and the program is clearly stated in the enzyme synthesis system itself and the structure of amino acids.
In 1970s, many people found that deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA) in different states can represent the presence or absence of information. From the genetic code in DNA molecules to the stored data, DNA molecules change from one gene to another through biochemical reactions. The gene coding before the reaction is related to the input data, and the gene coding after the reaction is related to the output data. If this reaction process can be controlled, then a successful DNA computer can be made.
Amino acid molecules are much smaller than the electronic components on the silicon chip, and they are very close. It takes only 10 picosecond for a computer to complete an operation on a living body, which is1100,000 times faster than human thinking. DNA molecular computer has amazing storage capacity. 1 m3 DNA solution can store 1 trillion binary data. The energy consumed by DNA computers is very small, only one billionth of that of electronic computers. Because the raw material of living material chip is amino acid molecules, the living material computer not only has the function of self-repair, but also can be directly connected with living materials. It is predicted that 10 ~ 20 years later, DNA computers will enter the practical stage.
Nanocomputer
"Nano" is a unit of measurement. One nanometer is equal to 10[-9] meters, which is about 10 times the diameter of hydrogen atoms. Nanotechnology is a new frontier scientific research field that has developed rapidly since the early 1980s. The ultimate goal is that human beings can directly manipulate a single atom according to their own will and produce products with specific functions.
Now nanotechnology begins with MEMS (Micro Electro Mechanical System). Sensors, motors and various disposal punishers are all placed on a silicon chip to form a system. The computer memory chip developed and manufactured by nanotechnology is only a few hundred atoms in size, which is one thousandth of the diameter of human hair. Nano-computers not only hardly need to consume any energy, but also have many times stronger performance than current computers.
At present, there have been some encouraging news about the successful development of nano-computers. Researchers at HP Labs have begun to apply nanotechnology to research and manufacture chips. Once their research is successful, it will pave the way for the research, manufacture and production of other microcomputer components.
Interconnected collection continues to expand and improve.
Today, many people talk about the inevitable connection between computers and collections. On the one hand, it is increasingly difficult to see isolated computers that have not joined the collection. On the other hand, the concept of computers has been expanded by the collection. The Internet, which emerged in the 1990s, developed in full swing in the past, with unprecedented influence and popularity. Never has a technology changed our study, life and habits so dramatically as the Internet. Almost all countries in the world have computer collections directly or indirectly connected to the Internet, making it a global computer interconnection collection. Many people can communicate freely with other users around the world through the Internet, and they can get all kinds of information from the Internet.
Looking back on the development of Internet collection in China, we can feel the rapid popularization of the Internet. In the past three years, CNNIC's survey of Internet collections in China shows that the development of Internet in China has shown explosive growth. In June 2000, the number of networked computers in China was 3.5 million, and it was 8.92 million in 20001year, which more than doubled. In June 2000, the number of Internet users in China was 8.9 million. The count of 200 1 and 1 is 22.5 million, which has nearly tripled; In June 2000, the number of domain names registered under 5438+1October CN was 48575, and in June 2006, the number of domain names registered under 5438+1October was 122099, which nearly tripled. At present, the total capacity of international lines is 2799M, which is 8 times that of June 35, 20001m.
Many people have fully realized the charm of collection. The Internet has greatly narrowed the boundaries between time and space. Through collection, many people can enjoy computer hardware resources, software resources and information resources. The concept of "collection is computer" has been proved again and again by facts and gradually accepted by everyone.
In the next 10 year, it is imperative to establish a transparent all-optical collection, and the transmission rate of the Internet will increase by 100 times. Medical diagnosis, distance education, e-commerce, video conference and video library will be popularized on the Internet. At the same time, the construction of wireless collection will become the main battlefield for many companies to compete. In the future, we can connect to the Internet, communicate, get information and watch TV programs anytime and anywhere through wireless access.
Mobile computing technology and system
With the rapid development and wide application of the Internet, the maturity of wireless mobile communication technology and the continuous improvement of computer punishment ability, new services and applications are constantly emerging. Mobile computing is put forward to improve the efficiency of things and exchange and dispose of punishment information at any time, which has become an important direction of industrial development.
Mobile computing includes three elements: communication, computing and mobility. These three aspects are independent and interrelated. Before the concept of mobile computing was put forward, many people had studied it for a long time, and mobile computing was the first time to combine them for research. They can be transformed into each other, for example, by calculating penalties (source compression, channel coding, buffering, prefetching) to improve the capacity of the communication system.
Mobility can bring new applications to computing and communication, but it also brings many problems. The biggest problem is how to face the challenges brought by the wireless mobile environment. In the wireless mobile environment, the signal will be affected by all kinds of interference and micro-interference, and multipath and movement will occur, which will bring about problems such as signal dispersion in time and frequency domain, limited frequency band resources, and large transmission delay. In this environment, there are many problems that mobile communication collection and computer collection have not encountered. First, channel reliability and system configuration. Limited wireless bandwidth and harsh communication environment make all kinds of applications must be based on unreliable and possibly disconnected physical connections. In the mobile computing and acquisition environment, the movement of the position of the mobile terminal requires the system to be configured and updated in real time. Secondly, in order to realize various calculations on the move, it is necessary to support broadband data services. Thirdly, how to extend the existing mobile management technology, which is mainly used for voice services, to broadband data services. Fourthly, how to transplant some mature technologies in fixed computing acquisition to mobile computing acquisition.
All kinds of new microcomputer and information terminal products for global acquisition applications will become the main products. Portable computers, digital genetic computers, mobile phones and terminal products, as well as various handheld personal information terminal products, will integrate mobile computing and digital communication. Mobile phones will be embedded with high-performance chips and software to surf the Internet, watch TV and listen to TV according to standard wireless communication protocols (such as Bluetooth). The new generation growing up on the Internet will naturally not only use cars as a means of transportation, but provide users with functions such as surfing the Internet, office and family entertainment, and become an information platform on wheels.