(1) Fee-tax ratio. Although the tax reform will greatly increase the fiscal revenue during the Tenth Five-Year Plan period, it cannot solve the problem of increasing the country's disposable financial resources, because most of the increased revenue has been clearly used, just a change in management methods. The significance of changing fees into taxes is not to directly increase the amount of disposable financial resources of the country, but to control "chaos", which is a system construction to standardize the government's distribution behavior and is conducive to the formation of a good macroeconomic operating environment. (2) the fiscal policy orientation required for macro-control. Due to the influence of the Southeast Asian financial crisis and other factors, the international and domestic economic environment is not good, and the late ninth five-year plan and even the early tenth five-year plan can not be an opportunity to increase taxes in policy application. (3) financial system. The new fiscal and taxation system from 65438 to 0994 has been in operation for several years. After continuous running-in and improvement, a stable fiscal revenue growth mechanism has been initially formed, which itself ensures the synchronization of fiscal revenue growth and economic growth during the Ninth Five-Year Plan period. (4) Economic growth. According to the research reports of some institutions and the development report of the World Bank, considering the economic growth rate of 7% and the price plan of 3% in the price forecast of the State Planning Commission, the current GDP growth rate in the Tenth Five-Year Plan is 10%. Among several factors, we believe that the amount that directly affects the country's disposable financial resources during the Tenth Five-Year Plan period is mainly economic growth, so economic growth is the main parameter for income calculation. Accordingly, in 2005, the national fiscal revenue will reach191500 million yuan, and the disposable financial resources will increase annually by more than1400 million yuan. The consideration of expenditure is mainly analyzed from two aspects: need and possibility. Whether it is necessary to continue to expand the scale of expenditure during the tenth five-year plan period mainly depends on the development of the medium-term economic situation, and the key lies in the changing trend of the international economic situation and the effect of the policy of expanding domestic demand adopted in the past two years. Judging from the regulation and operation of the economic cycle, fiscal policy should have a transition from expansion to contraction, which needs to be consistent, and cannot and should not be ups and downs. Therefore, no matter how the situation develops, the pressure of financial expenditure is great. Mainly reflected in the increase of social security subsidies (basic living allowance for laid-off workers, living allowance for poor people, etc.). ), the government's follow-up financial pressure on infrastructure investment projects to expand domestic demand, and various social costs of promoting market-oriented reforms. , all need to increase fiscal expenditure. Another scholar thinks that China's finance will face the following factors at the beginning of 2 1 century. 1. During the Ninth Five-Year Plan period, the proportion of fiscal revenue in GDP continued to increase, and it is expected to remain at the level of 12% in 2000. However, due to some temporary and policy factors, the growth of fiscal revenue during the Ninth Five-Year Plan period is very important, and it will be difficult to continue to play its role during the Tenth Five-Year Plan period. During the Tenth Five-Year Plan period, the growth of national fiscal revenue will mainly depend on the coordinated growth of tax revenue and economy. 2. At present, the mechanism of coordinated growth of fiscal revenue and economy in China has not really been established, and the factors that affect the increase of fiscal revenue in China for a long time still exist. 3. Judging from the budgetary fiscal revenue and expenditure, the macro tax burden of the economy (the proportion of budgetary fiscal revenue to gdp) is very low, and 1998 is only 12.4%. From the perspective of the whole government distribution activities, considering the sources of funds that government activities rely on, such as extra-budgetary and extra-institutional, the burden of maintaining the whole government operation is estimated to account for more than 25% of gdp. Therefore, from the perspective of full-caliber government revenue, the economic tax burden is not low. The dilemma faced by the Tenth Five-Year Plan is that if measures are taken to increase fiscal revenue without reducing irregular government distribution activities in the economy, it will inevitably increase the burden level of the whole economy; If only the extra-budgetary and extra-institutional management is changed into budget management, the original expenditure pattern of this part of funds will have to be maintained, which will not increase the financial resources that can be directly controlled by the finance, so it will not effectively alleviate the current financial revenue difficulties. 4. 1998 and 1999 For two consecutive years, China has implemented a proactive fiscal policy to increase the issuance of national debt and expand government demand. At present, at the end of the Ninth Five-Year Plan and the beginning of the Tenth Five-Year Plan, it is still inevitable to continue to implement the relatively expanding fiscal policy. It is generally believed that China's economy needs long-term structural adjustment. According to the analysis of experts from the World Bank, during this period, if effective measures cannot be taken, the economic growth rate may drop to about 4.5%, which is obviously unacceptable for the current social situation in China. Therefore, fiscal policy is facing the pressure of technological expansion. 5. The weak financial foundation and the serious shortage of controllable financial resources are one of the main reasons for the contradiction of fiscal policies. According to preliminary estimates, if the price factor is considered, such as keeping the statutory expenditure growth in step with the economic growth, the expenditure on supporting agriculture, science, education, culture and health, price compensation and other factors can account for about 50% of the annual financial resources. If we consider the financial needs of a large number of laid-off workers in recent years, such as living security and grain purchase, the financial resources at the disposal of the government (especially the central government) are extremely limited, and the contradiction between fiscal revenue and expenditure will become more prominent during the Tenth Five-Year Plan period, and the central government, as the main body of macro-control, will undoubtedly face a more severe test. 6. In the absence of economic means of fiscal regulation and control in China, the implementation of proactive fiscal policy is ultimately reflected in the increase of fiscal deficit and national debt, but the expansion of fiscal deficit and the increase of national debt scale also increase fiscal risks accordingly. Obviously, no matter from the perspective of fiscal deficit or national debt, fiscal risk is not a reassuring problem, which is related to China's fragile fiscal foundation. Some scholars believe that the prediction of the scale of China's national debt during the Tenth Five-Year Plan period is mainly based on the economic operation during the Ninth Five-Year Plan period, especially closely related to the national economic planning index 1999. The main indicators during the Tenth Five-Year Plan period are predicted as follows: GDP is planned to increase by 7%, namely10648 billion yuan,11713 billion yuan,1288.4 billion yuan and14/respectively. The growth rate of the central fiscal revenue and expenditure remains unchanged at 1999, and the interest rate is calculated according to the actual interest rate of the maturing national debt. The central fiscal deficits in each year are 1, 8 1 billion yuan, 1 99 billion yuan, 2,654.38+0.9 billion yuan, 2,465.438+0 billion yuan and 265 billion yuan respectively. According to the deficit of the central government and the repayment of domestic debts and foreign debts during the Tenth Five-Year Plan period, the annual issuance of government bonds will be 4 10 billion yuan, 380 billion yuan, 380 billion yuan, 350 billion yuan and 350 billion yuan respectively, totaling nearly 654,380+09 billion yuan, an increase of 380 billion yuan over the Ninth Five-Year Plan period. According to this calculation, during the Tenth Five-Year Plan period, the deficit ratio of the central finance excluding interest expenses and the debt burden rate of the central finance are still within the internationally recognized safety line. According to this index, there is still room for issuing bonds during the Tenth Five-Year Plan period. Some scholars believe that at the beginning of 2 1 century, especially during the Tenth Five-Year Plan period, the macroeconomic operation and development of China will present the following basic trends. 1. The economic growth rate continues to be constrained by demand. China's lack of demand, apart from the impact of large fluctuations in exports, is mainly due to the decline in the final consumption rate and the impact of insufficient consumer demand on expanding investment. From the international comparison, the final consumption rate of China in recent years is far lower than the world average, and it is also significantly lower than that of Asian countries with high savings rate and low consumption rate, because the gap between China's household consumption rate and other countries is very large (about 20 percentage points lower); However, the consumption rate of urban residents in China is not lower than that in other countries. The problem is that the consumption level in rural areas is too low, which affects the consumption rate of the whole residents. From now until the Tenth Five-Year Plan period, it is difficult to fundamentally change the situation of unbalanced domestic demand structure and insufficient demand in China. From this perspective, the expansion of consumption demand in China basically depends on the arrival of the consumption expansion period of rural residents. 2. The quality of economic growth will be gradually improved. During the Tenth Five-Year Plan period, we will vigorously promote the reform and strategic adjustment of the state-owned economic system, improve the economic benefits of state-owned enterprises, promote the rapid development of the non-state-owned economy, especially the mixed ownership economy, make the competition mechanism more reasonable and effective, and further strengthen the regulatory role of the market mechanism. The process of state-owned enterprise reform and ownership structure adjustment, coupled with the constraint of relatively insufficient market demand, will greatly promote the transformation of economic growth mode, thus gradually improving the quality of economic growth. It is estimated that the most obvious area for the transformation of growth mode and the improvement of growth quality during the Tenth Five-Year Plan period will be the consumer goods industry. The adjustment of industrial structure will take a big step. Since 1990s, China's structural problems have become more prominent. One is that the deviation of the three industrial structures has obviously deepened, and the other is that the upgrading of the industrial structure is very slow. These two aspects have great influence on the speed and quality of China's economic growth. Therefore, during the Tenth Five-Year Plan period, we must vigorously promote the adjustment and upgrading of industrial structure. Opening to the outside world will enter an important new period. After China's entry into WTO, the industries that will be hit hardest will be agriculture, heavy industry, especially high-tech industries and many tertiary industries, and most consumer goods industries already have strong external competitiveness. Even if China does not join the WTO in the near future, it will certainly implement the further opening-up policy in the early 20th century and make great strides in reducing tariffs and foreign investment conditions. Domestic enterprises will face more shocks from commodity imports and the entry of international multinational companies, and face greater international competition pressure. At the same time, more domestic enterprises will meet the new international challenges and expand their export and investment. Therefore, during the Tenth Five-Year Plan period, China can not only make further use of the favorable conditions of opening to the outside world, but also accelerate the transformation of growth mode and the upgrading of industrial structure, so as to improve its international competitiveness as soon as possible.