Over the past 20 years of reform and opening up, China has made remarkable achievements in economic development. The total GDP increased from 896.44 billion yuan in 1985 to more than 30 trillion yuan in 2008, and the total import and export volume increased from 1985 to 2.56 trillion dollars in 2008, ranking from 65,438 in world trade. Foreign trade has become an indispensable part of China's economic development. However, with the increasing dependence on foreign countries and the influence of the international environment, the prospect of China's foreign trade development is not optimistic. The dependence on foreign trade has risen too fast and the value is on the high side. Dependence on foreign trade, also called foreign trade coefficient, is the proportion of a country's total foreign trade to its GDP. The development of China's dependence on foreign trade has mainly gone through three stages: the first stage was in 1980s. At that time, China's foreign trade management implemented centralized management and unified planning mechanism, and the dependence on foreign trade was only between 7%- 10%; The second stage is the 1990s. Affected by the reform of 1994 exchange rate system and the financial crisis in Southeast Asia, China's dependence on foreign trade fluctuated greatly and rose slowly. The total volume of import and export trade grew at an average annual rate of 12.4%, and the dependence on foreign trade hovered between 30% and 43%. The third stage is after 2 1 century. With China's accession to the WTO, its integration into the world economy has gradually accelerated, and its dependence on foreign trade has been rising, reaching 68.69% in 2008. Theoretically speaking, due to the shortage of resources, the demand for a single product in the domestic market is limited, and the products produced by domestic enterprises cannot be sold at home, so most of them take the road of export-oriented economic development and have a high dependence on foreign trade. For a big country, because of its rich natural resources and large population, its domestic potential market capacity is large and its dependence on foreign trade will be low. However, contrary to theoretical speculation, China's dependence is increasing year by year. Especially after China's entry into WTO, China's foreign trade has the characteristics of a small country's economy, and its dependence on foreign trade has exceeded the world average. At present, the world average dependence on foreign trade is 4 1%, of which the average level of developed countries is 38.4% and that of developing countries is 5 1%. Compared with other big countries in the world, China's dependence on foreign trade is not only higher than that of developed countries such as the United States (25%) and Japan (22%), but also higher than that of developing countries such as India (3 1%) and Brazil (25%). Analysis of internal and external factors of foreign trade "short board" Since the reform and opening up, China's foreign trade has maintained rapid growth, which has played an important role in achieving steady and rapid growth of the national economy. However, with the rapid growth of China's foreign trade, there are still great hidden dangers in foreign trade export, which makes China's foreign trade face more and more severe challenges. The export dependence of labor-intensive goods is too high, which leads to the deterioration of the terms of trade: in recent years, despite the optimization of China's foreign trade commodity structure, products with high export competitiveness are still concentrated in labor-intensive products such as clothing, shoes and toys, while capital and technology-intensive products lack international competitiveness. At the same time, the price of labor-intensive products in the international market has fallen for a long time, which has worsened China's terms of trade and led to export poverty. The increasing dependence on strategic resource products and high-tech imports has narrowed the room for maneuver of China's foreign economic policy: in recent years, the dependence on foreign countries for strategic resource products and high-tech products in China has been on the rise. The overall reserves of mineral resources in China are insufficient, and the demand structure is out of line with the resource supply structure, especially in the large demand for bulk minerals such as rich iron ore, manganese, chromium, potassium, salt, copper and aluminum. It is estimated that the existing reserves of 45 main minerals in China can guarantee that only 24 minerals will be needed in 20 10 and only 6 minerals will be needed in 2020. In addition, the import dependence of capital goods and high-tech products is also high. At present, the import dependence of general instruments and meters in China is 52.87%, the import dependence of mid-range products and key parts exceeds 60%, and the import dependence of large-scale high-precision instruments and meters, large-scale civil aircraft and computer chips is almost as high as 100%. The high import dependence of these strategic resource products and high-tech products will not only cause China's technology-intensive industries to form a long-term dependence on the international market, but also affect the speed of China's scientific and technological progress and the development of independent innovation ability. It will also increase the probability that China's economy will be affected by the external economy and cause great hidden dangers to China's economic development in the future. The high dependence of major trading partners on foreign trade aggravates China's foreign trade risk: in international trade, the larger the market scope, the smaller the influence of individual markets, the less the country is affected by external economy, and the safer the economy, otherwise the risk will increase. At present, although China has trade relations with more than 200 countries and regions in the world, the import and export of foreign trade are mainly concentrated in a few countries and regions such as Europe, America, Japan, ASEAN and South Korea, and the market share growth of emerging markets has been low. As the import and export market is highly concentrated, China's import and export are directly affected by the economic changes in these countries, especially the European Union and the United States. In such a concentrated import and export market, once the markets of major import and export countries change, it will not only easily lead to trade frictions, but also directly affect the stability and development of China's domestic economy and threaten China's economic security. The American subprime mortgage crisis is a revelation to us. The high proportion of processing trade affects international competitiveness: processing trade began to develop in the early 1980 s, and then its proportion rose rapidly. At present, processing trade accounts for half of China's export trade and has become the largest trade mode in China. Different from general trade, the production and processing of general trade are completed in China, and the added value of products is high, while the processing trade is "two ends are outside", which has low correlation with domestic industries and makes little contribution to the national economy. At present, most of China's processing trade methods are primary processing and low-tech products, and the core technology is controlled by multinational companies and has not been transferred to China. At the same time, due to the extensive use of resource products and energy products, the pressure on domestic resources and energy supply has intensified. Excessive dependence on foreign capital reduces the dominant position of China's foreign trade: the growth of China's foreign trade is largely achieved through the growth of foreign-funded enterprises. Foreign-funded enterprises hold the initiative in foreign trade. On the one hand, the core technology of production is mastered by foreign parties, and China is only responsible for the low-tech links in the production chain; On the other hand, the export channels are controlled by foreign parties, which makes China lack the initiative to develop foreign trade. Once the international economic environment and international political structure change, the withdrawal of foreign-funded enterprises will have a serious impact on China's foreign trade. Foreign trade frictions have intensified and the trade environment has deteriorated: by the end of 2007, more than 600 anti-dumping, safeguard measures and special investigations have been initiated by more than 30 countries and regions against China. About 7 1% of enterprises and 39% of products in China have been affected to varying degrees and suffered heavy losses, making China one of the countries suffering the most anti-dumping in the world. At present, the friction between trading partners tends to be frequent and long-term, and the international trade friction they face has developed from micro-level and enterprise level to macro-level and institutionalized level. The way of trade friction has also changed from tariff and quota permission in the past to anti-dumping, countervailing, technical barriers, social and labor standards. Countervailing, green barriers and technical barriers have also become common measures to deal with China products in some countries and regions outside Europe and America. The proportion of the tertiary industry is too small, which is not conducive to the upgrading of China's domestic industrial structure: overall, the degree of tradeability of the tertiary industry is low. The lower the proportion of tertiary industry in GDP, the higher the dependence on foreign trade. At present, the tertiary industry accounts for 75% of GDP in the United States, 65% in Japan and only 33% in China. For a long time, China's export products are mainly concentrated in labor-intensive products, which is not conducive to the upgrading of China's industrial structure and increases the difficulty of improving the competitive advantage of foreign trade. RMB exchange rate fluctuation affects import and export: From the correlation analysis of foreign trade dependence and exchange rate change, foreign trade dependence is most closely related to exchange rate change. On the premise that other conditions remain unchanged, RMB appreciation will reduce the dependence on foreign trade; When the RMB depreciates, the dependence on foreign trade will increase. It can be said that the depreciation of RMB is an important reason for the rapid increase of China's dependence on foreign trade. Since 2003, the RMB has been affected by many factors, the exchange rate has risen and exports have been affected. For example, in 2008, the RMB exchange rate continued to rise, and the plight of China's export enterprises began to gradually emerge. The China Import and Export Fair (Canton Fair), regarded by the outside world as the weather vane of China's export situation, encountered a cold front in its export transactions this spring. The turnover of the Guangdong delegation on the first day decreased by nearly 50% compared with the previous session, and the orders of textile enterprises also decreased by 20%. The premise and prospect of trade recovery: implementing the domestic demand-oriented economic development strategy: China has a population of 654.38+0.3 billion, and its domestic market potential is huge, which is one of the important reasons why many foreign businessmen are optimistic about China. While maintaining the sustained and healthy growth of foreign trade, we will strive to expand the pulling effect and influence of the domestic market on economic growth. At present, we should shift the focus of expanding domestic demand from investment to consumption as soon as possible, promote the rapid growth of consumer demand, and base the export of manufactured goods in China on meeting domestic demand. On the premise of satisfying the domestic market, we will form the comparative advantage of China's manufactured goods and reduce our dependence on foreign markets. Therefore, fiscal measures and monetary policies should be taken to reduce interest rates to stimulate domestic consumption and investment. By gradually establishing a social security system covering the whole society, the burden of medical care, pension, education and housing for the people will be reduced, the income of employees and personal income tax will be increased, and the disposable income of the people will be indirectly increased to provide support for expanding effective domestic demand. Adjust the industrial structure and attach importance to the transformation and upgrading of processing trade: dynamically adjust the classification catalogue of processing trade commodities according to the needs of domestic industrial upgrading; Moderately develop labor-intensive industries, focusing on supporting labor capital-intensive industries and labor technology-intensive industries; Combine the advantages of labor force with domestic and foreign capital or high-tech manufacturing industry to promote the transformation and upgrading of processing trade; Strengthen the supporting capacity of domestic products, improve the localization rate of export commodities, strengthen technical cooperation with foreign-invested enterprises and improve product quality; By formulating preferential policies, attracting foreign-funded enterprises to set up R&D and marketing centers to undertake the transfer of foreign-funded high-end processing trade industries and links; Increase the proportion of processing trade in domestic procurement, improve product quality, increase domestic procurement, extend domestic industrial chain, and promote the localization rate of processing trade products; Implement strategic trade policies, give preferential support to high-tech industries such as finance, taxation and import and export policies, cultivate high-tech industries in China, and gradually form high-tech industrial clusters. For imported raw materials and raw materials, such as oil, we should increase investment in science and technology, study their substitutes as soon as possible, reduce imports, and avoid being subject to other countries. Implementing the strategy of diversification of foreign capital to alleviate trade friction: In order to reduce the trade friction caused by excessive market concentration, China must continue to adjust the pattern of import and export markets, adhere to the strategy of market diversification, develop trade relations with neighboring countries and regions such as Latin America and Africa at a new level on the basis of consolidating the markets of developed countries such as Europe, America and Japan, and form a reasonable and hierarchical diversification pattern of China's export market in the world. Reduce dependence on specific trading partners and specific import and export commodities. For some important industrial products subject to foreign anti-dumping, enterprises can diversify their export products by developing differentiated products. Promote the upgrading of processing trade and vigorously develop service trade: service trade is the focus of China's foreign trade development. In the future, we should improve the quality of processing trade products, strive to cut into higher industrial links, enhance the supporting capacity of domestic industries of processing trade, accelerate the transformation and upgrading of processing trade, develop projects with high added value, high technology and high foreign exchange earning, continue to use processing trade to undertake industrial upgrading and transfer in developed countries, fully absorb foreign advanced production technology, management experience and design standards, and increase the contribution of processing trade to domestic economic development. At the same time, we should gradually open the service market and vigorously develop service trade. Support powerful enterprises to "go global", especially encourage the export of service trade with advantages, and participate in international division of labor and competition at a higher level, so as to make it a new growth point of China's foreign trade in the future. Improve the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism and implement an exchange rate system based on market supply and demand. In view of the fact that RMB depreciation is one of the important reasons to stimulate the rapid growth of China's foreign trade, and it is also the main factor leading to the increase of foreign trade dependence, we should stabilize the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level, improve the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism, and implement an exchange rate system based on market supply and demand. In addition, domestic enterprises can set up production plants in the target market by going abroad, avoid trade barriers, reduce the balance of payments, and make China's balance of payments tend to be balanced, thus maintaining the stability of the RMB exchange rate, keeping the currency issuance in China at a reasonable level, and reducing the inflationary pressure caused by the inflow of hot money into additional currencies. Attach importance to resource conservation and ensure national security and sustainable development: attach great importance to China's energy and resource protection strategy and establish and improve an important resource guarantee system. First of all, it is necessary to formulate overseas resource utilization strategies and increase investment in the development of natural resources. In addition to looking for energy supply places overseas, China should actively promote cooperation with foreign countries in the field of energy-saving technologies. Secondly, strengthen resource-oriented foreign investment and reserve strategic resources; Thirdly, the government should formulate a national energy-saving plan, formulate various incentive and mandatory measures for energy conservation and emission reduction, strengthen supervision and take the road of sustainable development with high efficiency and low consumption; In addition, a more reasonable government performance evaluation system should be established. Change the practice of pursuing trade target growth as the core of foreign trade policy, change ideas, establish an index system for scientifically judging foreign trade policy and its implementation effect, and change the continuous growth of import and export volume in the past into the establishment of "winning by quality" as the core of the whole foreign trade policy.