Recently, with the promulgation of the national top-level new energy automobile industry policy and the listing of shares of new car-making forces such as Ideal and Tucki, the share prices of new energy automobile companies such as Weilai, BYD and Tesla have continuously broken through new highs. The heat and height of new energy vehicles have really been refreshed. With the publication of "New Energy Automobile Industry Development Plan (20021-2035)", the sales proportion, energy consumption standards and supporting policies of future 15 new energy vehicles are interpreted in detail, and the future development direction of China automobile industry is pointed out, which can be said to be a great benefit, especially for China new energy automobile industry with an investment of more than 2 trillion in the whole industry chain.
However, it can be seen from the planning that the future support will focus on "ecological large enterprises", power exchange, charging pile construction, travel and parking concessions, electrification of vehicles in public areas and so on. Through the means of tax incentives, the key point will be to get through the link of "using new energy vehicles" and dispel the concerns of potential car owners, rather than the previous policy. Therefore, the spirit of "Planning" is not only the support for vehicle manufacturers, but also good for the whole new energy vehicle industry chain, especially for industries related to "battery life (charging)", such as charging piles, which is the only industrial link with financial support mentioned in "Planning".
Second, the status quo.
For the proportion of pure electric new energy vehicle sales mentioned in the plan, it will reach 20% of all automobile sales in 2025, and only 4.3% at this stage, which also means that the sales of new energy vehicles have great prospects in the future, not to mention a higher proportion in the future. To achieve this goal, we need not only the control and support at the policy level, but also the joint efforts of the whole automobile industry in China in technology, market and brand.
Especially in the link related to "battery life (energy supplement)", it is difficult for an enterprise to bear the investment of "full blossom" of the whole industry ecological chain, especially the new energy automobile enterprises and the charging pile construction and operation enterprises, which are generally losing a lot at present, and most of them are far from reaching the profit standard. According to the forecast, the number of new energy vehicles will exceed 25 million in 2025, 80 million in 2030 and 65.438+600 million in 2035.
By the end of February 20 19, the total number of charging infrastructure in China was1210.9 million, including 510.6 million public charging piles, 703,000 private charging piles, and the vehicle-pile ratio was 3.50: 1. From June 5438 to February 2020, the national charging infrastructure only increased by 26,000, including public charging piles10.5 million and private charging piles 1 1 10,000.
Faced with the gap of 15 and10.50 billion new energy vehicle charging piles in the future, it is difficult for any enterprise to come up with this investment. Therefore, the charging infrastructure is divided into residential charging and public charging network in the plan, and the guiding development direction is given. In terms of residents' charging, the planning emphasizes intelligence and order, and advocates residents to enjoy charging piles, which shows that with the expansion of electric vehicles, the demand for private charging piles is increasingly difficult to meet, especially in old communities.
This means that "charging piles have to be built by new energy owners" to pay the bill. Even if the whole vehicle manufacturer gives a full set of gifts, plus policy subsidies, most of the expenses will be borne by the owner. After all, wool comes from sheep. However, with the popularization of the policy of "limiting the line" and "limiting the license" and the preferential treatment of new energy vehicles in this respect, buying new energy vehicles will also be a last resort for car owners. From this point of view, combined with the relevant rules of planning, it shows that "hybrid" and "extended range" new energy route models will still be the mainstream in the future.
In addition, even "hybrid" and "extended range" new energy vehicles will still use charging piles to some extent. Together with other pure electric vehicles, the investment and market opportunities of charging piles in China in the next 15 years are expected to be at least 6 trillion yuan, which will benefit related industries such as hardware and software equipment manufacturing, new infrastructure construction and charging pile operation.
Third, the worries and concerns of potential car owners.
In 20 19, the operating income of China's automobile manufacturing industry was 8,084.67 billion yuan, accounting for about 8 16% of the annual GDP. The production and sales volume are 2572 1000 and 25.769 million respectively, of which new energy vehicles account for only single digits, and new energy vehicles have not completely dispelled the worries and concerns of potential owners.
1, price
From the perspective of automobile sales, most consumers still choose fuel vehicles with the price of 65,438+0-200,000 yuan. Although some high-end luxury models are growing rapidly, it is not enough to show that consumers' willingness to buy has been biased towards high-end models. At present, the new energy vehicles with the price of 654.38+0-200,000 yuan are not enough to pose a threat to the market position of fuel vehicles, but the new energy vehicles listed (or reduced in cost) in the future will have great market competitiveness.
2. Safety
At present, the new energy vehicle is still a "new species", and people will inevitably look at it with a magnifying glass. Consumers are still worried about the safety of new energy vehicles, especially in the news background of "explosion", "nature" and "recall" from time to time, consumers are still a little hesitant. And car companies constantly compete for the "endurance" ability of electric vehicles, which will inevitably adopt some more radical technical solutions, which will improve the "safety risk" of themselves and their owners.
Step 3 be patient
Before there is a big breakthrough in the key technologies of electric vehicles, the safety and endurance of electric vehicles are a contradictory dilemma, as are the requirements for endurance and energy consumption reduction in planning. Relying on "stacking batteries" or "carrying engines" will improve the endurance of vehicles, but the energy consumption may not meet the relevant standards. Moreover, this "endurance" that most car owners will not use in their daily driving will also increase the purchase cost of their own vehicles in terms of "battery pack" and "engine". Therefore, the "Planning" weakens the requirements for the cruising range of new energy vehicles and strengthens the rapid replenishment of energy.
Fourth, the endurance mode of new energy vehicles
At present, there are many technical routes for the battery life (charging) of mainstream new energy vehicles:
1, self-charging battery life of external power supply
It is suitable for all brands of pure electric vehicles such as Fast Charge and Wally, and the time varies from 30 minutes to several hours.
2. Charging life of public charging piles
Suitable for all brands of pure electric vehicles. In the later stage, it will be based on fast charging. The charging time of different brands and different batteries is different. Generally, it takes at least 30 minutes to charge once.
3. Life of self-generating battery using extra fuel
The sales of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles are even less. At present, there are only more than 8,000 vehicles, and there are even fewer hydrogen refueling stations, only a few dozen vehicles.
Program electric vehicles, such as Li one, generally charge when driving in urban areas and refuel when driving long distances between cities.
4, external fuel internal combustion engine life
Plug-in hybrid vehicles, such as BYD DM, generally charge (less) to refuel when driving in urban areas and refuel when driving long distances between cities.
The battery life of this brand power station is changed.
For some brands of pure electric vehicles, such as Weilai, it only takes a few minutes to change electricity at this brand's power station, which is basically equivalent to refueling. However, the coverage of power stations is not much. In the future, with the increase of sales, the number of power stations and their spare batteries will also increase, which is a great investment for vehicle manufacturers.
Verb (abbreviation for verb) Endurance anxiety of new energy vehicles;
The cruising range of new energy vehicles is related to the road environment and the vehicle's battery management system (or prompt method), and there is no unified standard of 100% reliability, especially after the battery is aged, which makes the driver feel uncertain on the road. The farther they go, the greater their anxiety. Where can I charge (change electricity)? Is it charged once every 200 kilometers? Or 300 kilometers? If the charging pile 300 kilometers away is broken, or there are cars waiting in line to charge, do you want to go to a place 350 kilometers away? Or just wait here? What should I do if I continue to queue up in a hurry? How long will it take to charge (the car in front+my own car)? This feeling should be the mileage anxiety of new energy owners.
Even if some people say that the fuel cell has a long battery life, if the fuel cell needs to be recharged, has the car not yet driven to the next hydrogen refueling station? How to rescue?
Sixth, the solution to mileage anxiety:
1. Increase the number and distribution points of public charging piles.
Opening branches near residential areas (commercial areas and residential areas) and setting up "tidal parking spaces" and public charging piles not only solve the problem of insufficient parking spaces, but also solve the problems of charging safety and charging methods;
Set up public charging piles in all ground parking lots (parking spaces) and transfer stations with operating charges according to a certain proportion of parking spaces;
Set up public charging piles in all parking spaces in the expressway service area according to a certain proportion;
It is suggested that a certain number of public charging piles should be set up in automobile maintenance and car washing service outlets to increase market competitiveness.
It is suggested that a certain number of public charging piles should be set up in the parking spaces of public business places such as hotels and teahouses to increase market competitiveness.
2. Realize the brand-wide common public power exchange standard and implementation method.
Explore the possibility of standardized disassembly of new energy vehicle batteries, make one of the batteries universal, and realize partial use and replacement of all brand new energy vehicle batteries in power stations. Let all electric vehicles add a universal alternative way to quickly replenish energy in addition to charging.
3, a variety of emergency rescue (or increase endurance).
In addition, a variety of rescue measures (increasing endurance) are realized to ensure that new energy owners dare to drive and want to drive, so as to promote the better popularization of new energy vehicles. For example: external battery pack, external extended range engine and so on. According to laws and regulations, cars are allowed to tow small trailers within 700kg, without applying for a license or adding a quasi-driving model.
Seven, the new increase in possible business opportunities.
As a result, in addition to a large number of new infrastructure such as charging piles, there may be the following business opportunities:
1, battery life of public power exchange station
The possible business opportunities in the future are suitable for some electric vehicles, but it is necessary to unify the battery standards of new cars or modify the battery packs of old cars.
2. Emergency durability of plug-ins (generators, fuel cells and power batteries)
The possible business opportunities in the future are suitable for all electric vehicles, and it is necessary to modify old cars or unify the standards of new cars.
Eighth, explore other additional business opportunities.
Emergency rescue may be a good market entry point, which can be explored and supplemented, such as: battery sales, battery modification, vehicle modification, charging pile construction, engineering construction, public power station operation/custody, public charging pile operation/custody, new car sales, financial insurance, maintenance of traditional and new energy vehicles, emergency rescue, construction and operation of automobile parks and real estate, and research and development of batteries, accessories and vehicles.
Nine. Influence on China Automobile Industry
The mainstream in the future will focus on the sales of new energy vehicles. For automobile manufacturers, increase investment in technology research and development and reduce short-term profits, otherwise they may fall behind. If everyone engages in an "arms race", it will definitely drag down and eliminate a number of vehicle manufacturers, and the profits of the winners will definitely increase in the future.
It may be a small test for the existing charging pile (changing power station) operating enterprises. If the pace is slow, the good points and cakes in the market will be taken away by others. If the pace is big, it is easy to pull eggs and the financial pressure is increased, there will be a danger of collapse.
For the existing automobile aftermarket operators, they are basically small enterprises, and the boat is small and easy to turn around. As long as we adjust the direction in time and increase the relevant technical reserves and equipment, we should be able to adjust it soon. Even relying on "Internet" technology, there may be several large-scale "brand operation" enterprises in the automotive aftermarket.
We are in an era of change, and all walks of life are changing with each passing day, such as sailing against the current, if you don't advance, you will retreat. Only by constantly changing, meeting the challenges of science and technology and the baptism of commercial tide, meeting the "changing needs of consumers" and moving in the right direction can we survive.
If you are thinking about the future development direction of the industry, or are interested in the possible new business opportunities mentioned in this article, welcome to communicate with us. In this respect, we are also thinking and exploring. We are planning a new energy vehicle Internet self-driving travel video program "All the way to the end of the world" and another automobile industry brand, which has registered its trademark.
This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.