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How to treat the paper on the slowdown of China's economic growth
From 1978 to 20 1 1 year, China's economy maintained an average annual high growth rate of 9.87% for 32 years. In such a long time span, achieving high-speed growth close to double digits can be said to be an economic miracle that attracts worldwide attention. From 20 12 to 20 13, it increased by 7.7%, and in the first three quarters of 20 14, it increased by 7.4%. We can clearly see that the new normal from high-speed growth to medium-high-speed growth is an objective fact. The new normal means different from the past; The "normality" of the new normal is relative stability. That is to say, the "new normal" is different from the past. It is not only a relatively stable state in a certain period, but also an irreversible new trend, indicating that China's economy has entered a new period of medium and high-speed growth. The conditions and environment of China's economic development have changed greatly or will change soon, and the economic growth has entered a "normal growth" of medium and high speed. This state is not a short-term state, nor is it a state of the past, but a state that transcends the past and has a fresh breath, and will last for quite some time. We should deeply understand this objective fact and actively adapt to the new changes. (1) The change of economic growth rate from high-speed to medium-high-speed conforms to the economic law, and the economic operation has the law of periodic change, which has experienced the process of growth, deceleration and even decline to re-growth. Economic growth is like running a marathon alone. After running at a high speed for a while, you must slow down, otherwise your body can't bear it, and then adjust your state and move on. After years of rapid economic growth, China will inevitably enter a new adjustment period. The slow growth rate is determined by the inherent logic of China's economic development. The principle of economics shows that the growth rate of GDP often fluctuates reasonably around the potential growth rate. It is an indisputable fact that the potential growth rate will decline in the future. With the decline of labor supply, the cost of environmental treatment rises, consumption inclines to service goods, and the economic growth potential of China decreases, correspondingly, the GDP growth rate also decreases, making it difficult to maintain high-speed growth. On the other hand, the growth mode of high input, high consumption and high pollution makes the carrying capacity of resources and environment decline and it is difficult to bear high speed. China's economic growth is in line with the law, and if it violates the law, it will suffer, or even backfire. (2) The transformation of economic growth from high-speed to medium-high-speed is the general trend of economic development in modern countries. International experience shows that when a country or region experiences a high-speed growth stage, there will be a phenomenon of speed-up shift. According to the statistics of the Growth and Development Committee of the World Bank, only 13 countries have maintained a high growth rate of more than 7% for more than 25 consecutive years after World War II. From 1950 to 1972, the average annual growth rate of Japanese GDP was 9.7%, from 1973 to 1990 to 4.26%, and from 19 1 to 20/kloc. During the period from 196 1 to 1996, the average annual GDP growth rate of Korea was 8.02%, and it was only 4.07% during the period from 1997 to 20 12. During the period of 1952- 1994, the GDP of Taiwan Province Province increased by 8.62% annually, and decreased to 4. 15% during the period of 1995-20 13. Looking around the world, many countries have directly switched from the high speed of more than 8% to the medium speed of about 4%, while China's economy can still maintain a medium-high level of 7% ~ 8% for some time. (3) Although the economic growth rate has slowed down, the actual growth rate is still considerable. Under the background of increasing downward pressure on the economy, GDP increased by 7.4% in the first three quarters of 20 14. In 20 13, the total GDP has reached 56.9 trillion yuan, making it the second largest economy in the world. Such a huge total base means that the increment represented by each percentage point increase cannot be underestimated. In 20 13, the GDP increased by more than 5 trillion yuan, equivalent to the economic aggregate of 1994. Even if the growth rate is around 7%, China's economy is in the leading position in the world in terms of speed and volume.