With the risk of economic recession depressing market demand expectations, WTI oil price hit its biggest weekly decline since April last week, and the oil market demand prospect has also become the focus of market attention. So today, Bian Xiao is here to sort out the knowledge about crude oil for everyone. Let's have a look!
Goldman Sachs remains optimistic about the oil price outlook.
Due to the weak gasoline consumption data in the United States last week, WTI oil prices fell by 9.93% last week, the biggest weekly decline since April this year. Brent crude oil also fell by 8.98% last week.
On Monday morning, international oil prices opened lower again, and WTI crude oil once fell below $88/barrel. However, as of press time, the intraday decline has basically recovered, and WTI crude oil rebounded to around $89/barrel.
In recent months, due to the slowdown of global economic growth, people's concerns about the decline in energy use have intensified, and investors have withdrawn from commodities. Since mid-June, WTI crude oil has dropped from a high of 123.68 USD to 89 USD, with a cumulative drop of 27% in the past two months.
Last Sunday (August 7), analysts such as DamienCourvalin of Goldman Sachs released a report saying that although oil prices have fallen, they have not completely lost their upward momentum.
After nearly two months of falling oil prices, Goldman Sachs analysts lowered their forecasts for oil prices:
The forecast of Brent oil price in the third quarter will be lowered from 140 USD/barrel to10 USD/barrel, and the forecast of Brent crude oil price in the fourth quarter will be lowered from 130 USD/barrel to 125 USD/barrel, and the forecast will be maintained in 2023.
Goldman Sachs pointed out that the reasons for the recent decline in oil prices include sluggish market liquidity and many concerns about potential risks such as economic recession and the release of strategic oil reserves by the United States.
The gasoline market demand has not been destroyed?
Goldman Sachs believes that only after the retail price of fuel rises sharply will the market demand be destroyed, which will lead to the rebalancing of market supply and demand-this has not happened yet.
The current situation is that while the price of crude oil has recently fallen, the price of gasoline has continued to fall. According to data from American Automobile Association (AAA), as of last Saturday, the average retail price of gasoline in the United States fell for 54 consecutive days, reaching just over $4 per gallon.
It is worth mentioning that last week, the us energy information administration (EIA) reported that the average gasoline demand in the United States in July had fallen below the level of the same period in 2020. This data is also the biggest culprit that triggered the sharp drop in oil prices last week. However, this data makes many people in the industry suspect that this is a "false negative" issued by Biden's government.
According to the data of GasBuddy, a well-known gas station navigation website in the United States, as of the week of July 24, the daily demand for retail gasoline reached more than 9.5 million barrels, the highest this year.
The data of American gasoline reserves does not seem to be consistent with the decline in demand. In view of the pressure to increase gasoline production, the refinery has been running at full capacity this summer. If the demand for gasoline really drops, the inventory of gasoline should rise rapidly. But last month, gasoline stocks were basically flat, still at a five-year low.
Goldman Sachs is also optimistic about the demand prospect of the US gasoline market, and believes that the decline in the retail price of gasoline is unlikely to last.
They believe that the retail price of fuel in the United States will rise to the end of the year, and it is expected that the price of gasoline in the United States will rise to $4.35 in the fourth quarter.
What are the leading stocks of the oil concept?
China Petrochemical (600028):
Leading stock is the leading stock of petroleum processing in Chaoyang District, Beijing.
In 20021year, the company realized a net profit of 7120.8 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 1 14.02%.
On August 7th, the share price of China Petrochemical rose by 1.95% in three days, with a market value of 497.603 billion yuan and the latest price of 4. 1 yuan.
China Petroleum (60 1857):
Leading shares of the largest exploration and mining enterprise in China; The company is mainly engaged in oil and gas exploration, exploitation, sales and transportation; Suitable for all links of combustible ice.
XD China Stone Company achieved a net profit of 92 1.6 1 billion in 202 1%, with a compound growth rate of 4 1.8% in recent five years. Earnings per share, 0.5 yuan.
According to the latest news of the opening on August 7th, the share price of China Petroleum rose by 1.35% within 7 days. By 3 pm, the stock rose 0.97% to 5.2 yuan.
Shengli shares (000407):
In the past seven trading days, Shengli shares fell for four days, during which the overall decline was 0.8%. The highest price is 3.8 yuan, and the lowest price is 3.74 yuan. Compared with seven trading days ago, the market value of Shengli shares fell by 26.4025 million yuan.
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