I. Main business and basic financial analysis
Specifically, at present, the company's business is gradually moving closer to China, and the revenue of smart devices has also increased. The company's overall operating performance is in line with market expectations.
2. Financial aspect: According to the research reports of many brokers, the company's financial situation is good and there is no big risk. After the exchange loss of 200 million yuan was hedged in 2020, there was no real loss, and the company always had the habit of hedging.
3. Future income guarantee: By the end of the first quarter of 2002/KLOC-0, the company's total orders in hand were about 92.5 billion yuan, more than four times the company's income in the past 20 years, of which the unfinished amount of projects under construction was about 41200 million yuan. In the post-epidemic era, the world will enter the stage of infrastructure-driven demand. The new cement production capacity abroad is mainly concentrated in Africa, Southeast Asia, South Asia, Central Asia and South America, and the company has cultivated in these areas for many years. Domestic companies rely on the big tree of China Building Materials, which has great development potential, and will be introduced in detail later.
Comments: The company's position in the industry and orders in hand show that the company's basic market is very stable, and the global Daxing infrastructure will promote the appropriate expansion and price increase of the cement industry.
Comments: From the perspective of the number of shareholders, from the third quarter of 2020, the number of shareholders decreased significantly, and then maintained a slow downward trend, and the stock price began to gradually pick up. Judging from the proportion of institutional positions to tradable shareholders at the end of the last two quarters, all three institutions are new to the top ten tradable shareholders, and northbound funds have also slightly increased their positions. At the end of 2020, China Life Pension Fund and Guangfa CSI Infrastructure Engineering Index Fund failed to enter the top ten tradable shareholders at the end of the first quarter of 2002/kloc-0 because their positions were less than 0.4 1 (it is impossible to obtain evidence on whether to withdraw). Judging from the changes in institutional positions, it is very likely that new institutions will tentatively open positions in the first quarter. At present, the overall proportion of institutional posts is low. Compared with institutional positions, there is still a lot of room for further positions.
Third, technical analysis.
Judging from the market index and industry index, in the first quarter, the stock price rose significantly, the trading volume increased significantly, and the number of shareholders decreased slowly. New institutions tentatively buy, and there are three daily limit in 17 trading days. The average cost of the new organization is estimated to be between 8.5 and 9.5 yuan. Since April, the market has maintained a sideways trend, and its share price can shrink obviously after a slow correction, which is naturally expected to fall.
Four, the main factors affecting the stock price
(1) Absolute leader of carbon neutrality in cement industry: As a high-energy consumption industry, energy saving and emission reduction in cement industry is of great significance to realize the overall vision of "carbon neutrality" in China. The company is the core supplier of energy-saving and emission-reduction equipment and technology for domestic cement production lines, and the related indicators of green cement technology of the company have reached the world leading level, leading the development of energy-saving and emission-reduction technology and equipment for cement industry, low energy consumption and low system power consumption for low-carbon life, ultra-low emission technology and equipment for cement production, oxygen-enriched combustion and carbon capture technology, and new low-carbon cement production technology.
At present, it is predicted that the annual carbon emission of the industry is 65.438+37.6 million tons, accounting for 654.38+0.3.5% of the total carbon emission in China, slightly lower than that of the steel industry. The application effect of intelligent technology independently developed by the company is remarkable. In the intelligent demonstration line of cement production, the qualified rate of cement clinker produced in Huaikan South increased by more than 3%, the clinker strength increased by 1.5 MPa, the production line was reduced by 50%, and the automatic collection rate of production data reached 100%. Moreover, the optimization of production configuration under digital solution can reduce clinker cost by more than 15 yuan, and intelligent production will further realize cost reduction and efficiency increase.
Comments: The company is a real provider of low-carbon solutions in the cement industry. With more and more strict environmental protection requirements, many brokers have also evaluated and calculated from various aspects. Although the total amount is different, it shows that it is optimistic about the huge potential of the low-carbon technological transformation market as a whole. This is similar to low-carbon metallurgy in the steel industry. Sinosteel International, as a provider of low-carbon solutions for the steel industry, is cooperating with major steel enterprises such as Baowu Iron and Steel, Hegang and Angang, while Sinoma International is a provider of low-carbon solutions for the cement industry, which also has broad prospects.
2. The overseas epidemic situation has a certain negative impact on the company's operation.
The company's overseas business accounts for about 50%, and the epidemic situation in India and Africa is grim, which will have a certain negative impact on the development of overseas business. According to the investor research report released on April 30th, the company has taken various measures to reduce the negative impact. From the reality, it will still put some pressure on the stock price, but it will not affect the medium-term trend.
3. Substantial progress has been made in increasing asset acquisition, but the impact is not significant.
A number of brokerage industry research reports show that most predict that the price of 202 1 cement will rise steadily, but the magnitude is not large. In order to cope with the serious impact of the epidemic on the economy, at present, other major countries in the world are releasing a lot of water, which has brought about a continuous rise in global inflation, as evidenced by the continuous rise in commodity prices. In the future, after the epidemic is effectively controlled, the excess liquidity will be gradually recovered, but infrastructure is still needed to stimulate the recovery of demand (the United States is already taking action), so the probability of cement prices maintaining an upward trend is high. At the same time, domestic cement prices will benefit from stricter environmental protection policies, accelerate the elimination of backward production capacity, and accelerate the concentration of cement market share to head enterprises such as Sinoma and Conch. The increase of cement price makes the profits of large enterprises more abundant. Accelerating the technical upgrading of production lines and equipment is conducive to the rapid spread of the company's business.
On the whole, the company's fundamentals are good, and the authentic imagination of carbon neutrality is large. The orders on hand are sufficient and the performance is guaranteed. The fixed increase is progressing smoothly and the acquisition target is good. After the stock price is adjusted by shrinkage, it is more conducive to the take-off of the stock price.
The above are only personal opinions and are not for investment reference.