1. Five major banks: specifically including industry, agriculture, China, construction and communications. Its capital strength is strong, the customer structure is good, the customer base is mainly large and medium-sized enterprises, and small and micro enterprises have always been mainly head customers with strong anti-risk ability, which will be affected to some extent in this epidemic, but the overall impact is not great. In addition, infrastructure construction will be increased this year to hedge against the economic downturn, and large banks will be the main financing force at that time, so the overall situation is more promising.
2. 12 national joint-stock banks: including China Merchants Bank, CITIC, China Everbright, Huaxia, Ping An, Minsheng, Xingye, Pudong Development Bank, Guangfa, Hengfeng, Zheshang and Bohai. Its customer base is mainly some large and medium-sized enterprises, which has been greatly impacted. However, as a national bank, it has large room for manoeuvre, strong business innovation and scientific and technological capabilities, good personal business management and certain hedging ability, and the overall problem is not big.
Three. Local small and medium-sized legal person institutions: including city commercial banks, rural commercial banks, credit cooperatives, etc. Their customer groups are mainly local state-owned enterprises and small and medium-sized enterprises, so the impact is more obvious and there will be great differences in different regions. If the local economic strength is strong and the epidemic situation is not serious, the overall transition can be smooth; If the local economic strength is poor and the epidemic situation is serious, it is necessary to rely on the support policies of the central and local governments to successfully pass the customs.
4. Private banks: including Weizhong Bank, Shanghai Huarui Bank and Wenzhou Private Bank. , there will be great differences, depending on the type of enterprises they serve and their technical and online business capabilities. For example, Zhongguancun Bank in Beijing, whose customers are mostly high-tech enterprises, will basically not have an adverse impact in this epidemic.
5. Policy banks and development banks: including China Development Bank, Export-Import Bank and Agricultural Development Bank. All three banks have special state support policies, and they are not purely commercial, so they are not affected much.
6. Postal Savings Bank: The customer base is mainly small and medium-sized enterprises, but due to the large number of outlets (to towns and villages), the assets are large, and they also have certain anti-risk ability.
However, it should be emphasized that finance is the core of modern economic operation, and the central government, ministries and local governments will try their best to maintain the stable development of economy and finance, so we should believe that even if there are difficulties, it will be temporary and long-term positive.
Banks must be greatly affected by this security incident. Otherwise, why does the central bank continue to carry out reverse repurchase operations? These two weeks add up to almost 2 trillion new funds! It is to directly inject liquidity into the bank, so that the bank will not receive a lot of loans because of this incident, and finally the funds will be difficult to pay, forming a liquidity risk.
The two core businesses of banks are deposits and loans, which have been greatly impacted. Deposits will definitely continue to decrease, and loans will definitely increase the overdue rate of arrears, which will eventually lead to an increase in the non-performing loan ratio. These two aspects are negative factors that affect the steady operation of banks. Judging from the cases at home and abroad, the core reason for most banks with problems is that these two aspects are risky.
1. Let's talk about the impact of borrowing first. Many people are worried that personal mortgage credit cards may be affected and they will not be able to repay the bank as scheduled. But the real bank is concerned about the maturity of the borrowing enterprise. If it cannot be returned, that is the big problem. In the classification of bank loans, it is mainly divided into personal loans and corporate loans, and corporate loans are the bulk of loans. Therefore, in this incident, it mainly depends on whether the corporate loan will be overdue.
So far, because things broke out before the Spring Festival, construction started a week after the Spring Festival, and the repayment period of many enterprises should not have arrived yet. But banks are worried now, because most enterprises will be negatively affected, such as entertainment, restaurants, tourism and some manufacturing industries will be the hardest hit areas. Although they haven't thought of it yet, they will definitely have no money to pay it back in the future. As long as it is overdue, it will affect the bank's indicators, increase the non-performing rate and be controlled by the central bank.
The central bank has made preparations in advance, and has repeatedly warned banks not to lend in advance, and those who can renew their loans must renew their loans. Don't harm the interests of corporate customers for the sake of the evaluation index of your own bank. However, it depends on how the bank will implement it in the future.
At the same time, the central bank also reminded banks that for the affected individual customers, their mortgages and credit cards should also be given appropriate measures to delay repayment. However, at present, the internal standards of banks are very strict, but the benefits are not great at all.
2. From the perspective of deposits, it is easier for everyone to understand. During this period, everyone will sit still and spend less money, so savings will be lower and lower, and the joint reaction is that bank deposits will gradually decrease.
In view of this, banks are not worried now. Because after the central bank's 800 billion reverse repurchase operation, banks should have sufficient funds to hedge the reduction of personal and corporate deposits.
To sum up: banks will be hit hard, but we have a strong central bank and supervision department, which will strive to support the stability of the banking system, so there will be no survival crisis in the overall banking industry. But their profit performance this year may be affected.
This year, the performance of most industries will be affected, not just banking. But banks should be more customer-centric, which is the moment when they should really be anxious and help customers. Otherwise, the bank's profits will be preserved, all funds will be recovered, and all customers will disappear. Isn't that tiring and fishing?
From the analysis of banking companies in recent years, I think the impact of this epidemic on banks exists, but it will be limited. The main indicators of banks are asset quality on the one hand and interest margin on the other. And the influence of consumer confidence.
The impact of this epidemic, whether for large enterprises or small and medium-sized enterprises, has a certain degree of impact and loss. This raises the relative risk of enterprises, and banks should not only bear the heavy responsibility of loans, but also bear the heavy responsibility of relative risks. Therefore, in terms of the quality of loan assets, it will be reduced. In other words, the quality of bank assets has a certain degree of influence.
On the other hand? The interest difference of the bank. This time, a large amount of money was put into the market to increase the liquidity of market money and reduce the risk of enterprises. The more money in the market, the lower the interest rate. The interest rate difference between banks will also narrow, which will have a decreasing impact on the interest rate situation of banks.
And consumer confidence. Now banks are gradually developing into retail banks, that is, increasing more retail businesses such as personal consumption credit loans. During the epidemic, parties, banquets, tours and other activities were basically cancelled. And confidence in the future will also be hit, and consumption in 2020 may be unsatisfactory. Then in this case, it has a great impact on the income of bank retail business.
So ... why is the impact limited?
The money put into the market does not directly enter enterprises and individuals, but flows out through banks. If more money is put in, even if the interest difference is reduced, the relative income will not be greatly reduced. In this respect, I think the impact is limited. Although the quality of assets will have an impact, banks will also depend on the situation. For example, the interest rate of high-quality assets will be lower, and the interest rate of risky assets will be higher to control risks.
Although consumption has decreased, this reduction definitely exists, but with the deepening of online shopping, the loss will be limited.
On the whole, the epidemic has an impact on banks, but the impact is limited.
For banks, the impact of this epidemic is still great.
The traditional business of banks is debt business and asset business. Debt business is mainly deposits, and asset business is mainly loans. Banks' profits mainly come from deposit and loan spreads.
Affected by this epidemic, the capital flow is very tight, whether from enterprises or individuals.
For enterprises, it doesn't start work, but the daily consumption is still very large. Without new sales income, they can only eat old money, that is, bank deposits.
For individuals, everyone does not go to work and has no income, so they can only take bank deposits to maintain their daily lives.
In this case, the bank's debt business is first affected. The source of funds, that is, deposits, has decreased, and the funds used for lending have also decreased, resulting in a decrease in bank profits.
A large part of the bank's business is mortgage business, and the sudden epidemic has caught many "house slaves" off guard. Because the enterprise can't return to work and the individual has no income, will it affect whether the mortgage payment can be repaid as scheduled? In fact, many people have been seriously affected, facing the risk of loans overdue, or even cut off their mortgage.
Loans overdue will lead to an increase in the non-performing loan ratio of banks. If the supply is cut off in a large area, it may also cause bank losses. In this way, the bank's various regulatory indicators will face a test.
In order to maintain social stability, for some groups with special difficulties, banks may also implement some preferential policies and lose some income.
According to the requirements of the regulatory authorities, banks should give preferential loan interest rates to SMEs to help them tide over the difficulties and solve their financing difficulties.
It is generally expected that the LPR interest rate will go down on the 20th of this month, which means that the loan interest rate will be further reduced and the interest income will be reduced, thus affecting the profits of banks.
In addition, although everyone has no money now, it is not convenient to go to the bank for loans because of the epidemic. This has also affected the bank's credit business more or less.
The bank's wealth management business will also be affected.
Therefore, this epidemic has a great impact on banks.
Banks are still greatly affected by the epidemic.
Banks shoulder the heavy responsibility of supporting the real economy. Since the outbreak of the epidemic, the epidemic in COVID-19 has pressed the "pause button" for the whole social operation, and the pace of development and operation of most industries has slowed down.
On the one hand, banks can't reduce the interest expenses of deposits, and they can't guarantee to recover the interest income of each loan.
Because of the epidemic, non-livelihood enterprises have been slow to start work and their income sources have been cut off. They also need to invest a lot of money to protect property expenses, repay bank loan interest, maintain personnel expenses and run enterprises. The liquidity originally retained in the bank will only be less and less, or even dried up, and the bad debt rate of bank loans will increase; However, if the business is difficult, the income of employees will be limited, employees will lack income sources, and personal savings deposits of banks will also decrease. The mortgage interest owed to the bank can be delayed, but it cannot be exempted.
This puts banks, enterprises and individuals in a dilemma.
Although banks are said to be "guaranteed by drought and flood", their liquidity has lost, the default rate of enterprises has increased, and the sources of deposits have decreased, making life difficult for banks. What's more, at the moment of the epidemic, in order to prevent people from gathering and avoid cross-infection, few people actually go to the bank to handle business, so don't think about the bank's "good start" in the new year.
Fortunately, in order to release the liquidity of funds, the People's Bank of China has carried out the reverse repurchase operation of10.2 trillion in the open market since February 3, which ensured the supply of funds in the market, enhanced the liquidity of banks and gave a shot in the arm for economic recovery!
Under the epidemic situation, the central bank, the Ministry of Finance, China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission and other five departments also jointly issued relevant notices to give relevant support to the people who lost their income sources due to the epidemic situation. All kinds of banks have also issued announcements, which can suspend all kinds of repayment, do not charge penalty interest after the deadline, and are not included in such caring measures as credit information system.
Generally speaking, the impact of the epidemic on banks is quite great, but it will not hurt the bones. I believe that with the joint efforts of the people of China, we will definitely overcome the epidemic and tide over the difficulties as soon as possible.
Banks will certainly be affected by the epidemic. In China, finance is an embarrassing existence, which bears the heavy responsibility of supporting the real economy. Banks are no exception. On the one hand, it is necessary to solve the financing difficulty of the real economy, that is, to increase loans, on the other hand, it is necessary to solve the financing difficulty of the real economy, that is, to reduce the loan interest rate.
Affected by the sudden epidemic, in order to curb the further spread of the epidemic, the relevant parties strictly control the flow of personnel, implement grid management of residential villages, prohibit primary and secondary schools from starting school, and prohibit enterprises from starting work without approval. The economic impact is inevitable, and many small and medium-sized enterprises soon fall into operational difficulties. The real economy, especially small and medium-sized enterprises, urgently needs to reduce the burden and resume production. Banks have become an important carrier to reduce the burden on small and medium-sized enterprises.
The impact of diseases on banks comes from two aspects: the narrowing of net interest margin and the increase of non-performing loans.
The downward trend of LPR leads to the narrowing of net interest margin.
At the beginning of the new year, the central bank implemented 7+ 14-day reverse repurchase120 billion yuan, and the reverse repurchase rate was lowered by 10 basis point, and the winning bid rates were 2.40% and 2.55%. The market expects MLF and LPR to follow up, and central bank officials also made it clear in relevant questions and answers that there is a high probability that the interest rates of MLF and LPR will be lowered, which is an upward adjustment.
The downward trend of LPR means that the bank loan interest rate will follow a certain downward trend, but the cost of the bank's debt side can't keep up with the downward trend, which is equivalent to the narrowing of the bank's net interest margin. One of the main sources of bank profits is net interest margin, and the narrowing of net interest margin will reduce bank profits.
This LPR interest rate cut is not the end of interest rate cut, but the beginning, and it will continue to lower the LPR interest rate. The more interest rates LPR reduces, the greater the impact on banks. Although the downward trend of LPR 10 basis point does not mean that the loan interest rate will fall by 10 basis point, the downward trend of the loan interest rate is certain. At the end of the third quarter of 20 19, the balance of RMB loans of financial institutions was 149.92 trillion yuan, and the net interest margin narrowed by 10 basis point, which meant that the bank's loss profit was15 billion yuan, accounting for 0.9% of the accumulated net profit of commercial banks in the first three quarters of 20 19. Real estate mortgage loans will keep the interest rate unchanged, which can only reflect a rough estimate, but even if calculated according to the new RMB loans, the loss is still a big data. 19 RMB loans increased by 9.67 trillion yuan in the first half of the year. The narrowing of net interest margin affected the annualized profit by about 1000 billion, and the bank's share price trend was very depressed.
This policy requires banks to make moderate profits.
The China Banking Regulatory Commission issued the Notice on Strengthening the Financial Services of Banking and Insurance Industry to Cooperate with the Prevention and Control of Pneumonia in novel coronavirus, encouraging the banking industry to appropriately reduce the loan interest rate, in fact, requiring banks to make profits.
In addition to guiding interest rates down, relevant parties have also taken targeted measures to actively support the real economy. Generally speaking, the enterprises affected by the epidemic adopt the policy of "one household, one policy", and do not blindly lend, cut off or suppress loans. By adjusting credit structure, extending loans, reducing overdue fees, arranging loan renewal in advance, increasing credit loans and medium-and long-term loans, and reducing the cost of comprehensive loans, they can help enterprises tide over the epidemic period smoothly. This policy is quite beneficial to the real economy and has a great impact on banks. On the one hand, loans cannot be processed in time, which brings the risk of increasing non-performing loans. On the other hand, banks are required to make profits in various ways to help enterprises tide over the difficulties.
The pressure of non-performing loans is increasing.
In addition, due to the impact of diseases and economic downturn, some small and medium-sized enterprises will go bankrupt, especially some vulnerable enterprises such as catering, transportation, tourism, food and beverage, film and television entertainment, which may not survive this round of impact and thus go bankrupt. Industry insiders predict that "if the three-month harvest period is reduced by 60% and the three-month recovery period is reduced by 30%, the national tourism industry is expected to lose nearly 3 trillion this year." The tourism industry has lost 3 trillion yuan, and many small businesses can't survive the cold winter. The catering industry is also cold and windy, with huge losses. During the Spring Festival last year, the income of catering industry reached more than 700 billion yuan, and there is no statistical data this year. Even if calculated according to the loss of 80% last year, it will exceed 500 billion yuan. The catering industry is mostly small and medium-sized enterprises, and its ability to resist risks is weak. It is not excluded that some enterprises will close down or even close down.
The economic downturn and the decline in the industry prosperity will increase the number of non-performing assets of banks. The notice issued by relevant parties to appropriately increase the tolerance of non-performing loans in the banking system actually reveals that the quality of bank assets is under pressure, and behind the pressure is the increase of non-performing assets, which requires real money to write off, which will also reduce bank profits. Therefore, since the new year, the overall trend of banks has not been strong, which has become the chief culprit dragging down the rebound of the Shanghai Composite Index.
The problem is that in the face of sudden disease attacks, banks can only respond passively and cannot take effective measures to reduce loan losses.
First of all, banks, as the most extensive financial services industry at present, are naturally affected by this epidemic. Whether for state-owned banks or chain commercial banks, the business indicators in the first quarter may be lowered according to the actual situation and the development of the subsequent epidemic, which is the most intuitive impact of the epidemic on these banks.
In addition to the impact on the bank's performance in the first quarter, related people's livelihood security work, especially the approval and lending of funds in epidemic areas, requires employees to work overtime, so we can often see some pictures and videos on the Internet, and some bank personnel in key security areas still wear protective clothing and masks to stick to their jobs.
In addition to performance indicators and additional security costs, the savings rate that banks attach great importance to may also be greatly suppressed in the first quarter. In addition, for a small number of banks, if the subsequent epidemic continues, it may increase the bad debt rate of banks, which is also one of the potential negative effects of banks at present.
Banks will also be greatly affected, mainly in the increase of bad debts and non-performing loans, and there are large losses, but they are not enough to pose a fundamental threat to banks.
Banks collect money from depositors and then give loans to enterprises to help them become bigger and stronger. In return, the enterprise needs to pay interest and repay the principal within the specified time, that is, repay the principal and interest.
Under the epidemic, many enterprises, especially small and medium-sized enterprises, are difficult to survive. At this time, it is difficult for enterprises to have revenue, but the expenditure is still relatively large. Whether they can survive the epidemic is a question. Even if there is, the loss of the enterprise is huge.
Once the enterprise suffers huge losses and has no money to repay bank loans and interest, the bank's bad debts will increase. The longer the epidemic lasts, the greater the impact on enterprises, the greater the losses, and the more bad debts banks have, the greater the impact on banks.
Therefore, during this epidemic, banks will also be greatly affected, and it is impossible to have no impact.
However, compared with enterprises, the impact on banks is relatively small. After all, the epidemic first directly hit enterprises, and indirectly hit banks, which is equivalent to banks behind enterprises.
However, the loan ratio of banks to SMEs is actually not high, because banks also pursue profit and risk control. The bigger the enterprise, the stronger the risk control ability, and the more willing the bank is to lend.
During the epidemic, large enterprises are often more resistant to risks than small enterprises, and considering that most of the bank loan business comes from large and medium-sized enterprises, the epidemic will not hurt banks much, but the impact will be greater.
Are banks greatly affected by the epidemic? February 10, the first day of Shanghai's resumption of work, Monday. The industrial and commercial bureau, the tax bureau, the social security bureau, the economic park and enterprises have all resumed work. But I went to three or four banks, but they didn't open. I don't know what happened these days. I think this epidemic, such as delaying work, delaying school, and being isolated at home, has a great impact on all walks of life. Economy is a whole, a cyclic dynamic body. How long can the working capital of an enterprise last at present? What channels do enterprises need to borrow funds? Banks may have corresponding measures and opportunities. However, most catering, entertainment and small and medium-sized enterprises have stopped production. This bank can be imagined.
I think this epidemic still has a certain impact on banks, mainly the increase of bad debts and non-performing loans, which will also cause great losses to banks, but the shortage will also pose a fundamental threat to banks, especially to some local small banks. The longer the epidemic lasts, the longer it takes for enterprises to return to work, and the merchants can't open their doors normally, which also has a great impact on the deposit and withdrawal business of banks.