As a pillar industry that drives China's economic growth, the automobile industry policy has always been highly valued by the central government. At present, there are two main problems in China's automobile industry policy: First, the industrial policy is incomplete. Automobile is an industry with strong externalities. The rapid development of automobile industry will produce a series of related problems such as environmental protection, energy and transportation. Therefore, a complete automobile industry policy should not only cover the manufacturing field, but also cover environmental protection, energy, transportation and other related fields. However, the current industrial policy of China's automobile industry is only limited to the field of automobile manufacturing, which is incomplete and cannot meet such a huge policy demand. Second, industrial policy has a strong protective color. Automobile manufacturing is a competitive field, and the government only needs to pay attention to external issues such as safety, energy saving and environmental protection. As for who will produce and what model to produce, the price should be decided by the enterprise and the market. However, China has been implementing strict project approval and catalogue management for a long time, and private capital faces extremely high access barriers in vehicle projects. Although China has abolished the automobile catalogue and implemented the announcement system management, this reform measure has not reflected the intention of reducing the policy control of enterprises in order to liberalize market competition except simplifying the provincial declaration procedure and changing the annual announcement into the monthly announcement. Although Geely, Da Yue and zhonghua car, which have always been called quasi-cars, have been allowed to sell in the whole country, it is not difficult to see from the positioning description of large automobile groups and strategic alliances in the new automobile industry policy "Draft for Comment" that the new automobile industry policy actually does not encourage private capital to enter the automobile industry on a large scale, and diversified capital will be strongly restricted from entering the automobile industry. The long-term existence of these two problems will lead to the deterioration of ecological environment, social injustice and the decline of economic efficiency in China, which is not conducive to the realization of sustainable development.
First, it is not conducive to the improvement of the ecological environment.
First of all, it will aggravate the trend of resource depletion. The rapid increase in the number of cars will inevitably lead to an increase in the demand for cultivated land resources, such as expansion, more roads and more parking lots. At present, the number of family cars in China is 4.89 million. It is estimated that by 20 10 and 2020, this number will increase to 1466 and 72 million respectively, and the number of cars in China will reach1300,000. Assuming that the rush hour travel rate is 40%, it can be calculated that the direct land for these cars is 500,000 hectares. More seriously, it will stimulate the suburbanization of urban residents' houses and greatly increase the urban area. According to the economic development of western countries, this added value is dozens of times that of direct land use. This does not include the waste of cultivated land caused by cars owned by as many as 800 million rural people in China in the future. Cultivated land resources belong to "survival resources", that is, the most indispensable factor for human survival. If China's automobile industry policy blindly encourages industrial growth and does not fully consider the relationship between the development of this industry and cultivated land resources, China will face severe survival challenges.
In addition, China's energy reserves are far below the world average. Since 1993, China has become a net oil importer, and now13 of China's oil consumption depends on imports. Excessive dependence on imports will seriously endanger the country's oil security, and the rapid development of the automobile industry and the entry of automobiles into thousands of households will undoubtedly accelerate this trend. In 2000, the oil consumed by motor vehicles in China accounted for about 1/3 of the total oil consumption in China. It is predicted that the demand for motor vehicle fuel in China will rise sharply in 20 10 and 2020, accounting for 43% and 57% of the total oil demand in that year respectively. Therefore, the rapid development of automobile industry and the alleviation of energy consumption are a pair of contradictions that cannot be avoided in automobile industry policy.
Secondly, the consumption of automobile products is external, that is, air and noise pollution. In the urban areas of Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and other big cities, motor vehicle emissions have become the biggest source of pollutants. According to the forecast of the State Environmental Protection Administration, in 2005, the share rate of automobile exhaust emissions in urban air pollution in China will reach about 79%, and urban pollution is changing from soot pollution to automobile exhaust pollution.
In addition to the high population density and the sharp increase in the number of automobiles, the most important causes of automobile emission pollution in China are backward automobile production technology and environmental protection standards, poor automobile performance, long service life and poor fuel quality. The data show that China's automobile exhaust emission standards are nearly 10 years behind most developed countries, and the implementation is uneven. Even cars that meet China's emission standards have carbon monoxide emissions about twice that of European cars, and hydrocarbon and nitrogen oxides emissions more than three times that of European cars. Compared with American standards, the upper limit of carbon monoxide emission in China is 56% higher, nitrogen oxides are 32% higher and hydrocarbons are more than three times higher. The cost and loss of air pollution are very high. According to the World Bank's estimation, China's GDP has been offset by 5% due to the increase of medical expenses caused by air pollution and the loss of productivity caused by workers' illness. Therefore, if environmental protection is excluded from the automobile industry policy, the economic growth driven by the growth of the automobile industry will only be an illusion of prosperity.
Second, it is not conducive to social progress.
First of all, a highly protective industrial policy is not conducive to achieving social justice. In recent years, the profit of the automobile industry accounts for nearly 60% of the profit of the machinery industry, which is called the pillar industry that drives the GDP growth of China. However, this high profit is obtained through monopoly in the unfair competition created by the government's protective policies, and most of them stay in the industry, in the form of high wages and high welfare for workers in the industry, and the interests of consumers are not reflected. In contrast, the degree of marketization of China's household appliances industry is much higher than that of the automobile industry, and it has strong international competitiveness. The profit margins of Haier, Changhong and other enterprises are very low, but all the people benefit from the products with low price and high quality service realized by free competition, and the social wealth has been distributed fairly.
In addition, due to the combination of examination and approval system and power, the management and use of project funds are basically in the hands of a few power departments and individuals. The project is examined and approved at different levels in a highly monopolized and closed state, and there is no effective supervision and accountability mechanism, which leads to rent-seeking activities, unfair wealth distribution and social corruption.
If the automobile industry cannot compete fairly on a completely market-oriented platform, its driving significance to related industries is questionable, and it is more likely to be a huge waste of social resources and unfair distribution of wealth.
Secondly, incomplete industrial policies affect social development. Due to the unreasonable urban planning, the serious lag of public transportation and poor traffic management, with the rapid development of the automobile industry, the traffic congestion problem has become increasingly prominent, which has become an important factor affecting the development of the automobile industry and even the whole society. Since 1980s, most of the 3 1 big cities with a population of over one million in China are close to saturation, and the traffic in some urban centers is close to semi-paralysis. The average speed of motor vehicles in urban areas of megacities has dropped from about 20 kilometers in the past to about 12 kilometers now, which is equivalent to the speed of bicycles. The economic losses caused by traffic congestion and traffic efficiency decline in China amount to tens of billions of yuan every year. The decline in transportation and traffic efficiency has also increased the financial burden. In Beijing alone, the investment in alleviating traffic congestion in 2003 was as high as 35 billion yuan. At the same time, traffic accidents are also increasing. In recent years, the death rate of traffic accidents in China ranks first in the world. In 2003, one person died in a traffic accident every five minutes on average. In the same year, the traffic accidents above the medium level accepted by the national public security traffic management departments caused direct economic losses of 3.37 billion yuan. In addition, the idling of cars caused by traffic congestion has also aggravated environmental pollution and energy consumption. Therefore, if the industrial policy does not adapt to the urban and transportation planning for a long time, traffic congestion will further seriously hinder social progress and development.
Third, it is not conducive to achieving sustained economic growth.
Some people say that the development of automobile industry, especially car industry, can promote the development of many related industries and increase employment opportunities. Therefore, it should be protected if it does not have international competitiveness. But in fact, the backwardness of China's automobile industry is the result of long-term high protection.
Protecting new industries is indeed a policy to support industrial growth and development. Because the losses caused by protective policies such as tariffs may only be short-term losses, if China's emerging industries can grow rapidly in a short time, realize economies of scale, become mature industries and compete with foreign industries, then this policy measure of exchanging short-term losses for long-term benefits is desirable. China's highly protected automobile industry policy is a choice made by China under the given historical conditions, and it has indeed promoted the automobile industry to have a certain production capacity and scale in a short time. However, it is worth noting that the infant industry theory does not advocate restricting private capital from participating in competition. On the contrary, its implicit premise is domestic fair competition. Only under this precondition can the industry innovate continuously, expand the production scale and improve the production efficiency, and finally grow into a mature industry with international competitiveness. Otherwise, the dynamic optimal allocation of resources and the long-term benefits of economic growth cannot be realized.
On the other hand, this kind of protection policy usually leads to the decline of the whole social and economic efficiency, because there are the following problems: First, the choice of infant industries. There is still no unified view on the definition of infant industry standards in economic theory circles, and most of the existing standards are difficult to quantify and operate concretely. All kinds of industries strive for protection and policy inclination in the name of infant industry. In the economic practice of various countries, it is a common phenomenon that "fake infant industries" have been protected. The so-called "fake infant industries" means that these industries were initially protected, but they became competitive due to factors unrelated to protection. Therefore, the apparent success of its protection actually means a waste of social resources.
Second, the term of protection of infant industries. Liszt, the proponent of the theory of protecting infant industries, thinks that the protection period should be 30 years as the upper limit. If the infant industry has grown up and achieved economies of scale, the government should cancel the protection policy in time, so that the industry can fully participate in market competition, promote its innovation through effective and fair competition and the role of the law of value, and develop and grow in innovation. This means that the prerequisite for the success of the protection policy and the promotion of GDP growth is that the government has superb economic decision-making ability. But in fact, the government usually does not have this ability. Coupled with the inertia of protection and the existence of vested interest groups, temporary protection usually becomes permanent protection. Protected industries blindly rely on policy inclination rather than improving production efficiency to improve profit margins. The industry has lost its development momentum and has been in a naive state, unable to achieve the policy objectives of improving economic efficiency and promoting economic growth. After nearly half a century's protection, China's automobile industry is still an infant industry, which is a good example.
At the same time, the monopoly caused by protection will bring high monopoly profits, so social capital will be transferred from the department with high production efficiency but lower profit rate than the protected industry and invested in the protected industry. In this way, social capital is allocated to inefficient sectors, which leads to the reduction of resource allocation efficiency and social productivity level, and the sustainable economic growth cannot be realized.
Four. conclusion
Judging from the current situation in China, the development of automobile industry is obviously restricted by factors other than manufacturing in many aspects, such as environmental protection standards, energy supply, urban planning, administrative examination and approval of infrastructure construction and so on. The industrial policy of an automobile industry cannot meet such a huge policy demand. Therefore, from the perspective of sustainable development strategy, the industrial policy of the automobile industry urgently needs to be transformed into a complete automobile industry policy to encourage fair competition, which needs to include the following factors.
1. Fair competition. The lack of competition in China's automobile industry is actually the lack of fair and effective competition. Only by further relaxing industrial policies, lowering the entry threshold and encouraging the capital of various economic sectors to participate in automobile manufacturing can we enhance the development vitality of China's automobile industry as soon as possible and rapidly improve the technical level and quality of China's automobile products.
2. Intensive land use. At present, some policy makers and planners follow the example of some western countries' functional zoning land use methods, but in fact, this method has begun to be doubted and abandoned in western countries, because it will inevitably lead to an increase in travel volume and a longer travel distance. Moshe Sadif, the author of "Cities in the Post-automobile Age", pointedly pointed out that the car-centered traffic development model in western countries has plunged them into a vicious circle of "owning cars → building more roads → traveling far → relying more on cars", making it difficult to ride a tiger. Some people of insight in these countries began to call for a re-examination of the automobile industry policy and advocated the intensification of housing and transportation. However, the existing urban structure in China is basically a land use model with mixed functions, which conforms to the principle of sustainable development. Therefore, western countries are optimistic about China's mixed land use model and put forward the concept of "compact city". China should adhere to the direction of compact and mixed urban land use. Specifically, except for a few special zoning, urban zoning should include residential, commercial, entertainment, industrial, health education and other land components, and each component should be matched in a reasonable proportion. In this way, most daily trips can be carried out in the partition, thus reducing the travel distance.
3. Travel by bus. From the perspective of sustainable development strategy, the fundamental purpose of economic development is to develop production, improve the living environment of all mankind and improve living standards, and the movement of people and things is only a means to achieve this goal. People and things move in a variety of ways, and the car is only one of them, and it is the one with the highest cost, while public transportation is the lowest cost. At present, cities with high population density all over the world adopt high taxes (including license plate tax and car tax). ) and high fees (entry fees in some areas, parking fees, etc.). ) restrict the car traffic mode and tilt to the bus operation mode. The future development direction of urban traffic in China can't rely on the car model with large per capita area and large parking area. Instead, we should adopt a new public transportation mode with small floor space, large volume and high speed, with cars as transportation AIDS and rail transit vehicles to carry the passenger flow of modern cities. Therefore, we should vigorously develop public transport, set up bus lanes, increase the high-tech content of public transport management and improve the level of public transport service. Big cities should establish a modern three-dimensional public transport system with rail transit as the backbone, ordinary ground bus as the supplement, and various modes of passenger transport organically connected. Adjust the site layout, improve the bus and subway connection system, facilitate transfer, provide citizens with fast, convenient, safe and comfortable travel services, and greatly increase the proportion of bus trips. help me
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