The number of business bankruptcies and the number of financial institution failures have deteriorated sharply, briefly and super-periodically.
The financial crisis originated in America. The main cause of the financial crisis is the bursting of the economic bubble caused by credit expansion and virtual economy. The subprime mortgage crisis is the fuse.
The actual subprime bonds are only $600 billion, which triggered such a big financial crisis because of following the trend, that is, people's psychological expectations. Herd effect: refers to the existence of herd effect in the market.
Some investors who have not formed their own expectations or obtained first-hand information will change their behavior according to the behavior of other investors. In theory, herding behavior will aggravate the market.
Field fluctuations, and become the key to the success of the leader's behavior. In the following situations, sesame seed cake is the leader. In the real economy, subprime mortgage is the leader.
From the subprime mortgage crisis to the financial crisis, here is an original case:
Two people sell baked wheat cakes, and each person sells 20 baked wheat cakes every day (because the demand for baked wheat cakes is only 40). The price is one yuan, and the daily output value is 40 yuan. Later, they discussed and bought and sold 65,438+000 pieces (A to B).
Buy 100 pieces, b buy 100 pieces from a). If the price remains the same, the daily trading volume will become 240 yuan. -Virtual economy came into being.
If the price of sesame cakes traded with each other is 5 yuan, the daily transaction amount is 1040 yuan. At this time, A and B will raise the market biscuits to 2 yuan. Someone heard that baked wheat cakes were sold for 15 yuan dollars and saw the market.
When you only have 2 yuan, buy it quickly. -The bubble economy came into being.
If you can't bake the cake right away, you can buy the cake ahead. On the one hand, A and B increase the number of baked wheat cakes (above 100 per day), on the other hand, they sell forward baked wheat cakes and issue baked wheat cakes bonds.
In the transaction, the buyer buys with cash and mortgage. -Financing and financial intervention
Some people want to buy, there is neither cash nor collateral, so A and B issue subordinated biscuit bonds and buy insurance from insurance institutions. -Sub-prime bonds sowed the seeds for the sub-prime crisis.
One day, I found that I couldn't eat the cookies I bought, and I needed a place to store them and they were moldy, so I sold them quickly, even if the price was lower. The bubble burst.
This is how the financial crisis broke out. Cookie shop layoffs (as long as 40 cookies a day)-unemployment; Cookie bonds become waste paper-subprime mortgage crisis
Mortgage loan (collateral is worthless) can not be recovered, the liquidity crisis of the lending bank, the bankruptcy of the insurance company and so on. -Financial crisis
In the process from subprime mortgage crisis to financial crisis, the financial leverage of financial institutions and the issuance and circulation of financial derivatives have played an amplification role.
From the deeper analysis of the reasons in the United States, there are the following three points:
First, the consequences of long-term accumulation of consumption in advance. Consumption in advance has long been popular in the United States, encouraging people to buy houses, cars and high-end consumer goods. In pursuit of high profits,
Credit cards are issued to residents to encourage consumption in advance. Enjoy today with tomorrow's money "Let your dreams come early and make them come true." Being able to earn and spend is the pride of the times.
Son. " To put it bluntly, this kind of advanced consumption has also brought temporary prosperity for several years. However, this advance in purchasing power in the future is, after all, "spending money to buy grain" and there is a bubble.
Bubble, a temporary prosperity, has an illusory color. Once the economy is depressed and a large number of unemployed people appear, they are still unable to repay their debts, and consumers' ability to pay drops sharply. American subprime debt is in
In front of the world, bank bad debts are piling up, and some investment banks are facing bankruptcy.
Second, American banks are burdened with high salaries. The American banking industry has been pampered for a long time and seems to be a "favored son of heaven." High-level leaders are paid well, and there are millions of annual salaries everywhere.
Middle-level white-collar workers also earn hundreds of thousands a year. For a long time, the banking industry has covered up the contradiction because of the huge amount of loans and rich profits. Although the salary is high every year, it can get by.
Once the debtor is unable to pay his debts, a batch of bad debts will appear, forming a triangular debt. At first, the bank was in trouble, and then it suffered huge losses. So a lot of layoffs. If you seriously reflect, the high salary is too much.
Enjoying economic achievements happily contains exploitation factors. Or it is a foolish act of "fishing with exhausted resources" and "killing the goose to get the egg".
Third, the United States currently lacks emerging industries. Over the years, emerging industries in the United States have often led the world trend. Such as expressway, automobile industry, aviation industry and electronic communication industry. Such as computers
Our hardware, software and mobile phones are far ahead. When many countries were still in infancy, the United States had formed an industry on a large scale. But in the past decade, these leading industries in the United States have been hovering.
State, and many countries in the world are catching up quickly, computers and mobile phones and other electronic industries are developing rapidly, and the advantages of the United States are relatively weakened, or are gradually losing their advantages.
The financial crisis triggered by the US subprime mortgage crisis has spread all over the world, and its direct impact on China is relatively limited. China's official reserves and dollar assets invested by commercial banks are both in this crisis.
Once the risk is exposed, but overall, the investment loss is limited, which will not cause a big impact on China's financial system.
The specific impacts are as follows:
First, the decrease in US consumption affects China's exports, while the decrease in external demand means that foreign consumers' demand for high value-added products and low value-added products decreases simultaneously. In this environment, it is out.
Exporters may not have the motivation to innovate technology, but are forced to maintain market share by lowering product prices, which may lead to further deterioration of the terms of trade of China's export enterprises. On the import side:
Affected by the financial crisis, the American economy may still decline in the second half of the year, which will lead to the continued decline of its national consumption capacity and desire, while investment expenditure will increase.
China's foreign trade export is not good news. "If the consumer demand of American citizens decreases and the manufacturing industry gradually recovers due to increased investment, it will inevitably reduce the import of goods from China.
The number of.
Second, increase the cost of domestic imports. On the import side, the impact of the financial turmoil is closely related to the exchange rate of the US dollar. At present, almost all goods in the international market are priced in dollars.
The strength of the dollar determines the trend of commodity prices. Although in the medium and long term, the US economy is strong and the exchange rate of the US dollar is high, the policy of weakening the US dollar in the short term seems to have
As recognized by the market, in this way, the prices of crude oil, iron ore and other resource products will be pushed up again, and the cost of importing commodities denominated in US dollars in China will also be greatly increased.
Third, confidence in the domestic financial market has been hit hard. The first level is market confidence. The bankruptcy of institutions with big problems in the United States has cast a shadow on investors' psychology in China. approach
What is certain is that the second day after the news of Lehman Brothers' bankruptcy came, it coincided with the opening of the A-share market during the three-day Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, and the banking sector in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets plummeted across the board, and the performance could only be "terrible"
Capacity, of which ICBC dropped by 9.95%, China Construction Bank by 9.94% and China Bank by 9. 17%. Under the vertical blow of various bad news, the banking stocks in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets fell by more than 9.0% throughout the day.
As many as eight bank shares fell.
Fourth, it has brought direct losses to domestic financial institutions. The direct impact of Lehman Brothers bankruptcy on domestic financial institutions includes two aspects: on the one hand, financial institutions and investors in China hold
There are many subordinated bonds, resulting in actual losses; On the other hand, the financial crisis leads to the recession in the United States, which will be transmitted to China. According to bankruptcy documents, Lehman Brothers' top 30 unsecured debts
The owners are mainly Asian financial institutions, including Japanese Blue Sky Bank, Central Mitsui Trust, Sumitomo Mitsui Finance, Mizuho Industrial Bank, Trust Central Treasury, and China China Bank, a domestic financial institution.
The line is involved again. It is reported that Lehman owes $462 million to Japan's Blue Sky Bank, $382 million to Mizuho Industrial Bank and $382 million to Citigroup's Hong Kong subsidiary.
About US$ 275 million, Bank of China new york Branch also took the lead in lending US$ 50 million to Lehman Brothers.
In view of the negative effects brought about by the financial crisis, such as economic contraction and unemployment increase, China mainly has the following policy measures, which should be said to be related to economic growth, inflation, unemployment and the international community.
The income and expenditure of the four aspects of the national macroeconomic objectives are interrelated and will have a positive impact:
(1) Since July 2008, the monetary policy has been substantially adjusted in a timely manner. Reduce the impact of the open market, stop issuing 3-year central bank bills and reduce 1 year and 3-month central bank bills.
The frequency of bill issuance will guide the central bank's bill issuance interest rate to decline appropriately to ensure liquidity supply.
(2) loose monetary policy. In September 10, 1 1, 12, the benchmark interest rate was lowered continuously, the deposit reserve ratio was lowered, and the benchmark interest rate for loans was lowered. with the purpose of
Increase the money supply in the market and expand investment and consumption.
(3) On1October 27th, 2008, 10, a 30% discount on the interest rate of the first home loan was also implemented; Support residents to purchase ordinary self-occupied housing and improved ordinary housing for the first time.
(4) The restrictions on the credit planning of commercial banks have been cancelled.
(5) Insist on differential treatment, maintain pressure, and encourage financial institutions to increase loans for reconstruction of disaster areas, "agriculture, rural areas and farmers" and small and medium-sized enterprises.
(6) Promoting foreign trade: the import and export industry bears the brunt, with many employees (according to statistics, it has reached 1 100 million). First, increase the export tax rebate; Second, the appreciation of the renminbi, both.
Means to improve export competitiveness;
(7) Foreign economic cooperation and coordination (such as currency swap among China, Japan and South Korea). ).
These are the main monetary policies and other policies.
(1) loose fiscal policy: tax reduction (reduction of securities transaction tax and cancellation of interest tax have been implemented) and expansion of government expenditure (4 trillion to stimulate domestic demand is being implemented);
(2) Promoting foreign trade: the import and export industry bears the brunt, with a large number of employees (according to statistics, it has reached 1 100 million). First, increase the export tax rebate; Second, the appreciation of the renminbi, both.
Means to improve export competitiveness;
(3) Reduce the burden on enterprises: adjust the labor law, etc.
(4) Strengthen public expenditure on social security/medical care, and maintain the stability of social and economic development environment.
(5) Industrial revitalization planning.