The gold market is an integral part of China's financial market and a link between gold mining, smelting, management and financial enterprises. At present, China's gold market is facing some problems, such as backward management system, lack of derivative products, single market subject, disconnection between domestic and foreign markets, and low quality of traders. This paper discusses the important role of gold in the financial market and the factors affecting the fluctuation of gold price, in order to provide reference for the reform of gold market.
Keywords investment research gold market banking
1. Gold is a safe haven for financial market turmoil.
The World Gold Council recently reminded investors that gold is an asset without credit risk, which does not involve the credit risk of counterparties and does not become anyone's liability. Therefore, gold is a good investment choice and a safe haven for financial market turmoil.
According to the World Gold Council, investors adopt the strategy of "safe investment transfer" to protect their wealth to resist the uncertainty of the current global financial market. Rozanna Wozniak, manager of the investment research department of the association, said: "We are not surprised by the recent reaction of gold. With the catastrophic bankruptcy of powerful financial institutions, investors all over the world are waiting for the next bad news in fear. In just one day, the GLD position of the world's largest exchange gold fund (ETF) increased by 6%, from 6 14 tons to 650 tons. Previous evidence shows that there are extensive physical purchases in major gold markets around the world. Since gold will not become anyone's debt, it now seems to be a good investment choice. "
The World Gold Council believes that the particularity of gold is that it is both a commodity and a monetary asset. Because of its own supply and demand dynamics, its ups and downs are relatively independent, and the way affected by external factors is also different from other markets. There are various regions and ways of gold demand, which makes this precious metal basically isolated from the western economic cycle. The World Gold Council pointed out that despite the recent drop in oil prices, the inflationary pressure in many parts of the world is still very high, and gold is regarded as a means to fight inflation. Although its real value may change in a short time, its purchasing power has remained stable for centuries. Of course, these short-term factors need to be based on the long-term trend of supply and demand fundamentals. Since 200 1, the fundamentals of gold have been supporting the rise of gold prices.
Second, the role of gold in preserving and increasing personal assets.
Today, Keynes's view many years ago still echoes in my ears: "Gold plays an important role in our system. As the last guard and reserve in an emergency, there is nothing to replace it. "
Gold has the natural property of being immortal for thousands of years, and also has extremely high value, which is not affected by changes in social environment. Therefore, gold storage is the best way to store wealth. Tibetan gold has become the historical complex of several generations of ordinary people in China because of its special advantages in resisting political upheaval and natural disasters. The hot sale of gold jewelry in the 1980s and 1990s, and all kinds of gold bars at the beginning of 2 1 century are all outbreaks of hidden gold complex. In the case of rising prices in 2007, gold provided a safe and reliable way for China residents to store their wealth.
In 2007, the domestic CPI index maintained a slow upward trend, rising from 2.2% in June to 3.4% in May. After entering June, the CPI index suddenly accelerated. After reaching 4.4% in June, it was refreshed to 5.6% in July, followed by 6.5%, 6.2% and 6.5% in August, September and 65438+1October respectively, and the CPI index of165438+1October was-6.9. Although the People's Bank of China raised interest rates nine times to curb the overheating of the national economy, the negative interest rate on deposits actually made people laugh that "you can't beat Liu Xiang, but you have to beat CPI". In this economic environment, gold, which has always been regarded as the best tool to resist inflation, has once again entered people's field of vision. With the listing of various investment and commemorative gold bars, the stable intrinsic value of gold makes buying physical gold products the best choice for ordinary people to resist the risks of rising prices and currency depreciation.
In addition to the traditional zodiac gold bars, various investment gold bars have also become the darling of the physical gold market in 2007. Because the price of investment gold bars is mostly related to the real-time quotation of Shanghai Gold Exchange, and the added value of the process is low, it has become the first choice for the public to maintain value. During the year, Admiralty Investment Gold Bar successively set up sales and repurchase outlets in Beijing, Tianjin, Changsha, Shanghai, Hangzhou and Wuxi. In July, the sales volume of Nanjing Gaosaier gold bars reached 130kg, while the first-day sales volume of Shaanxi Hongyi investment gold bars in the market reached 597,000 yuan at the end of the year. In the field of physical gold, commercial banks have also made great efforts. ICBC, Industrial Bank, Huaxia Bank and Shenzhen Development Bank successively cooperated with the Gold Exchange to launch personal physical gold products, while the sales of CCB's own brand "Longdingjin" physical gold products exceeded 1 ton as of September 30, an increase of more than 100% compared with the annual sales in 2006. From the hot sales of physical gold products in various places, it can be seen that more and more families begin to use physical gold as the choice of asset preservation, and hiding gold in the people is gradually becoming the trend of family financial portfolio.
Roy Jaslant, a gold expert, once analyzed the purchasing power of gold for four centuries and came to the conclusion that "the purchasing power of gold in the middle of the twentieth century was similar to that in the seventeenth century". He also found that "for a long time, gold will always maintain its constant purchasing power level, and every half century, commodity prices will return to a constant gold value, instead of gold value fluctuating according to commodity price fluctuations". The function of maintaining the value of gold is mainly manifested in two aspects: first, the value of gold can not be zero regardless of political turmoil or economic turmoil, and gold has its intrinsic value as a physical asset; Second, no matter how the society changes and how time passes, the value of gold is eternal and has long-term intrinsic value. Therefore, from the long-term historical trend, gold investment is an effective means to prevent inflation and an effective way to preserve assets.
In 2007, the performance of China stock market exceeded most people's imagination. Index highs and transaction levels have been constantly refreshed, and almost all records have been rewritten. The Shanghai Composite Index climbed from less than 3,000 points at the beginning of the year to 6 124 points. Before May 30th, the daily trading volume of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets once exceeded 400 billion yuan. However, on May 30th, the decision of the Ministry of Finance to raise the stamp duty on securities transactions to 0.3% caused the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets to plummet. The Shanghai Composite Index dropped from 4,334 points to 3,767 points, a drop of more than 6%, and the turnover of the two cities fell to 200 billion yuan. The deep adjustment of the stock market did not end there. From 10 to 17, the stock market plunged again, once falling to 46 19.5 1, with the range as high as 2 1.6%. As of 12 and 19, compared with historical highs, the indexes of the two cities still fell by about 19.3% and 16% respectively. Compared with the ups and downs of the stock market, the gold market is obviously more worthy of the description of "cow hooves". The gold market in 2007 did not repeat the mistake of diving sharply after hitting a 26-year high in 2006. In the first eight months, the price of gold kept a range fluctuation, and the consolidation was between 600-700 USD/oz. In the last four months, the price of gold has gone out of a magnificent rising market. On June 7 165438, it rose to a 27-year historical high of 846.55 USD/oz, and rose by 200 USD in just two months. Since then, the price of gold has been fluctuating between $770 and $830 per ounce for more than a month, without the sharp correction that some people expected.
With the risk of price fluctuation in other investment markets increasing, the gold price has hit record highs, which makes investors gradually turn their attention to the gold market. In fact, the profitability of gold investment is closely related to other social investment products, because the price changes of various investment products will affect the cost of gold investment. When the deposit interest rate is high, the foreign exchange rate is high and the stock price is high, investors tend to buy more money, foreign exchange and stocks and reduce their holdings of gold. When other investment markets are not satisfactory, investing in gold has become an effective way to gain income.
Third, various factors of gold price fluctuation.
1, activities of the central bank
Central banks are big holders of gold, and their willingness to hold gold directly affects the trend of gold prices. If the central bank absorbs or increases its holdings of gold, the price of gold will rise; Conversely, if the central bank sells gold, the price of gold will weaken. In the late 1990s, central banks continued to sell gold, which weakened the gold and once fell to an all-time low of $265 per ounce. 2. Consumption factor This factor depends on the quality of the economy.
The economic situation has improved, people's income has increased, and their desire for consumption has increased. Gold and silver jewelry has become the object of consumers' purchase. The increase in demand stimulated the price of gold. On the contrary, if the economy is not good, consumers' willingness to buy will decline, and the price of gold will weaken due to the decline in demand.
3, the demand of science and technology industry
Another use of gold is widely used in modern high-tech industries, such as electronic technology, communication technology, aerospace technology, chemical technology, medical technology and so on. The annual demand of these industries is about 60 tons, accounting for 17% of the total consumption. Therefore, the more the above industries develop, the greater the demand for gold, and the price of gold will rise. On the other hand, with the development of science and technology, the mining cost of gold will be reduced accordingly, and the price of gold will be soft.
4. Investment demand
Because of the investment value of gold itself, when the above factors are favorable to gold, investors will enter the market one after another, and gold is driven by demand factors, making the price of gold popular.
5. Global gold supply and demand.
The supply of gold mainly comes from three aspects: the gold output of mine development, the sale of reserves by central banks and the recovery of old gold. While the demand for gold continues to grow, the growth rate of supply cannot keep up with the growth pace of demand. This means that central banks need to sell gold to make up for the gap between supply and demand, but it is limited by the agreements signed between central banks. If the market continues to worry about the prospect of the dollar, the demand for gold will rise.
6. Political factors
Because gold has the function of avoiding risks, if the political situation is tense and the war is overcast, this function of gold will play a role and investors will buy gold, so the price of gold will rise. For example, 1991August19 The former Soviet Union disintegrated, and the price of gold soared in one hour 10 USD (in ounces); If the political situation is stable, the price of gold will return to its original state immediately. For example, in the Gulf War of 1992, the price of gold was higher than 400 dollars, but after the war situation was controlled, the price of gold weakened. However, if the war is regional, its impact may not stimulate the price of gold to rise sharply.
7. Economic factors The economic quality can affect the rise and fall of gold.
If the economy overheats, it will cause inflation concerns. Because gold has the function of hedging inflation risk, once inflation occurs, investors will choose to buy gold. However, the index to measure inflation depends largely on the change of oil price. Therefore, the rise in oil prices will stimulate the rise in gold prices. On the contrary, if the oil price is stable, so will the gold price. However, if the economy improves and interest rates rise, such as the interest rate of the US dollar, investors will take the US dollar instead of gold, and the price of gold will be under pressure. A good example is the recent market expectation of a US dollar interest rate hike.
As a kind of hard currency, gold has always been favored by people for its preservation and storage function, fluidity, rarity, durability and ductility. A country's gold reserve is one of the important indicators of its economic strength. Nowadays, gold has increasingly become an excellent investment and financial management tool welcomed by the public because of its functions of preserving value, hedging and hedging.
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