At present, the world economy is in the rising period of a new economic cycle. In the next five years ~ 10, the world economy will develop faster than in the 1980s and 1990s. The rise of developing powers such as China, Indian, Russian and Brazil will accelerate the adjustment of international economic relations and the evolution of the pattern, and the trend of multipolarization will become increasingly obvious. The "twin deficits" of American economy makes the development of world economy unbalanced. The depreciation of the US dollar and soaring oil prices have increased global economic risks, but the overall trend of the world economy is still improving.

Last year, the world economy grew by nearly 5%, the best in the past 30 years. This year, due to the weak economies of the euro zone and Japan, the global output growth rate will slow down.

The American economy is still the engine of the world economy. International institutions and economists generally believe that the US economy will continue to expand steadily. Despite the impact of high oil prices and the "twin deficits" of financial trade, the US economy is endogenous and its growth momentum will not change. The reason is: 1. Business investment recovered strongly and household consumption continued to grow. 2。 Although the era of low interest rates has ended, the macro environment is still relaxed. 3。 Although the "new economy" lacks new impetus, its vitality reappears. In addition, the Obama administration's continued tax cuts, the weak dollar and the moderate decline in oil prices are all conducive to the continued expansion of the US economy.

Japan suffered from the Fukushima nuclear crisis, and its economic recession and recovery were struggling. Last year, international institutions were generally optimistic about the Japanese economy. Japan's economy was at a standstill in the first half of this year and may resume growth in the second half. However, Japan's economic recovery depends not on domestic demand, but on foreign trade. Because, at present, it is still difficult to support Japan's economic recovery only by domestic demand. It can be seen that the current Japanese economic foundation is still fragile. First, the impact of soaring oil prices on the economy began to appear; Second, domestic demand is still not strong; Third, economic development depends heavily on exports.

Economic growth in the euro zone is slow, but the recovery momentum can be maintained. After two consecutive years of downturn, the euro zone economy grew by 2% last year. Although it is lower than the IMF's estimated 2.2%, it is still the best passive continuous appreciation of the euro in the past four years. High oil prices have begun to affect the economic recovery in the euro zone.

Asia's economic growth has peaked, but it is still the fastest growing region in the world. The macro-economy in this region is basically stable, the effect of intra-regional cooperation is prominent, and a mutually beneficial and win-win pattern is taking shape. The development trend is: East Asia will continue to grow rapidly, while the "four little dragons" will expand moderately; Southeast Asia's economy will recover steadily, and Vietnam will become the leader; South Asia's economic growth momentum is not weak, and India has become a regional leader; Central Asia's economy is growing rapidly, but the risks of resource-based economy will increase. In the next few years, Asia will maintain the high growth of the global economy and remain the growth center of the world economy.

The economy of developing countries will enter a period of steady growth. International institutions are generally optimistic about the medium and long-term economic prospects of developing countries. At present, developing countries have gained unprecedented opportunities for development: 1. Overall, the macroeconomic environment has improved. 2。 International raw material prices continue to rise. 3。 South-South economic and trade cooperation has been significantly strengthened. The acceleration of regional cooperation between Asia and Latin America, Asia and Africa, Asia and Latin America has promoted the vigorous development of pan-regional, regional and bilateral cooperation among developing countries. 4。 China, Indian, Russian, Brazilian, South African and other developing countries have accelerated their economic development and played an unprecedented demonstration effect and leading role in the regional economy.

The current world economic situation and its influence on China

1. The world economy keeps growing, but the foreign trade market space in China is still relatively large. 2. The unbalanced development of the world economy has a great impact on China's processing trade, and the general trade has maintained rapid growth. . 3. The high unemployment rate in major economies aggravates the risk of world economic friction, and most of the trade frictions initiated by countries such as Europe and America are initiated by the unemployment sector. 4. High oil prices have aggravated the import cost of China, which may lead to cost-driven inflation. 5. Adjust the focus of foreign investment policy according to the trend of foreign direct investment in the world. We will shift the focus to the directional development of some service industries, give priority to the development of service trade of productive services, and focus on the development of export-oriented service industries such as transportation and commercial distribution services related to trade in goods.

There are five outstanding problems in the current economic operation.

-There are still many constraints to further increase grain output and farmers' income. There is limited room for the grain purchase price to continue to rise. The prices of agricultural materials such as chemical fertilizers remain high. It is prone to floods.

-There are still many new projects in fixed assets investment, and the investment structure is still unreasonable. Because the institutional reasons for investment expansion have not been fundamentally eliminated, investment growth in some places is still too fast.

-the profit growth rate of industrial enterprises has declined. The benefits of the industry have been clearly differentiated. The profits of coal, oil exploitation, ferrous and nonferrous metals and other extractive industries increased rapidly, while the profits of building materials, petroleum processing, transportation equipment, chemical fiber and other industries declined more.

-The overall situation of coal, electricity and oil transportation is still tight. Because the growth mode has not changed fundamentally, the utilization rate of resources is low and the waste is serious, the contradiction between energy and resource constraints is still outstanding.

-The situation of production safety is still grim. The phenomenon of illegal production against the wind still exists, with frequent serious accidents and frequent accidents such as road traffic and dangerous chemicals.

Energy conservation is the fundamental way to solve the energy problem in China.

China has a large population and relatively insufficient energy resources, and its per capita possession is far below the world average. The per capita remaining recoverable reserves of coal, oil and natural gas are only 58.6%, 7.69% and 7.05% of the world average respectively. At present, China is in an important stage of accelerating industrialization and urbanization. The consumption intensity of energy resources is high, the consumption scale is expanding, and the contradiction between energy supply and demand is becoming increasingly prominent. In the future, with the further expansion of economic scale, energy demand will continue to grow rapidly.

Therefore, energy is a prominent bottleneck restricting China's economic and social development at present and for a long time to come, which is directly related to the smooth realization of the goal of building a well-off society in an all-round way.

Energy conservation is the essential requirement of Scientific Outlook on Development.

China is rich in coal but short of oil. Among the fossil resources that replace oil, coal can meet the demand matching with the shortage of oil in the near and medium term10 million tons, that is, synthesizing oil by liquefied coal is one of the most practical and feasible ways to realize the basic self-sufficiency of petroleum products in China. Coal can be converted into gasoline and diesel by direct or indirect liquefaction. Direct coal liquefaction has harsh operating conditions and strong dependence on coal types. Indirect liquefaction of coal is to make syngas from coal gasification first, and then convert it into gasoline and diesel oil through catalytic synthesis. The operating conditions of indirect coal liquefaction are mild, which is almost independent of coal type.

The utilization of nuclear fission energy is more and more extensive, and the related technology is improving day by day, which is a feasible and reliable scheme to solve the energy shortage problem in the next century. The construction, operation and maintenance of nuclear fission power stations, the exploitation of nuclear materials and the disposal of nuclear waste will form a huge industrial chain in the next century. The utilization of nuclear fission energy is limited by the limited reserves of nuclear materials on the earth and the difficulties and dangers of human nuclear waste disposal. Using nuclear fusion energy may be the most important way for mankind to finally solve the energy problem. Sunlight is the energy released by nuclear fusion of hydrogen in the sun. The main raw material of nuclear fusion is inexhaustible deuterium contained in the vast sea water, and its product is inert gas helium. Therefore, there is neither shortage of raw materials nor pollution problems such as nuclear waste or nuclear leakage in nuclear fusion.

The international environment is complex and changeable. At present, the international environment is complex and changeable, and peace and development are the mainstream, but the factors that affect peaceful development still exist, such as power politics, hegemonism, terrorism, regional conflicts, nuclear weapons proliferation, natural disasters, transnational crimes, diseases, smuggling and drug trafficking, etc. Therefore, it is necessary to strengthen international cooperation.

It is of great significance for China's diplomacy to judge the current international situation and communicate with big countries. At present, the competition of comprehensive national strength among countries is becoming increasingly fierce, and the relationship between countries is cooperation and competition, dependence and containment. The overall stability of the international situation provides opportunities for the development of China, but hegemonism and power politics still exist, and China still faces severe challenges.

China should properly handle its relations with big countries, especially with the United States, Russia, the European Union and Japan. The unilateral policy of the United States has been frustrated and it actively seeks international cooperation, but the strategy of the United States to dominate the world has not changed. On the one hand, China should expand cooperation and increase the positive factors in the diplomacy between the two countries; On the other hand, we must adhere to principles and safeguard interests.

The continuous eastward expansion of NATO has seriously affected Russia's expansion in Europe, and Russia has turned its attention to Asia. At the same time, Russia is rich in natural resources, which is of great significance to China in terms of energy supply and border issues.

The EU is actively strengthening its strategic cooperation with the United States, strengthening its dialogue with China, and seeking cooperation with China on major power issues. At the same time, we also saw the huge market brought by the rapid economic development in China.

Because Japan can't face historical issues correctly, it actively expands and establishes its status as a big country, and actively cooperates with the United States to contain China. The opposition between China and Japan is obvious, and it is not easy to handle Sino-Japanese relations well, but the long-term rigidity of Sino-Japanese relations will not be conducive to the development of China.

At the same time, we should properly handle the relations with neighboring countries and create a more favorable external environment for China's economic development and social progress.