1992 46.3 ―

1993 76.7 65.7

1994 50.8 -36.5

1995 54.6 7.6

1996 68.3 25.3

1997 6 1.2 - 10.6

1998 54.8 - 10.5

1999 57.2 40.4

2000 80.3 39.9

200 1 106.7 33.3

2002 1 19.3 1 1.8

2003 157.6 32. 1

2004 2 12.3 34.7

2005 29 1.0 37. 1

2006 334 15

2007 48 1.6 44.3

2008 500

A pair of basic estimates of Sino-Russian trade potential

In 2004, the leaders of China and Russia reached a consensus that by 20 10, the trade volume between China and Russia should reach 60-80 billion US dollars. According to the current scale of Sino-Russian trade, the total volume of Sino-Russian trade needs to double by 20 10 to achieve the goal of $60 billion. If 2005 is taken as the base, the annual growth rate of Sino-Russian trade will be above 30% in the next four years. There is no doubt that the trade volume between China and Russia will reach $60 billion in 2008 and $80 billion in 2009. The question is, with the increase of Sino-Russian trade scale and base, can the annual growth rate remain above 30% in the future? What is Russia's demand potential for goods and services? Will the demand for Russian ability to pay continue to rise? Is there a new growth point for China's import and export to Russia? These issues are related to the sustainable development of Sino-Russian trade, and are also an important basis for answering whether the 20 10 Sino-Russian trade volume can reach 60-80 billion US dollars.

From the statistical data from the early 1990s to 2005, Sino-Russian trade did show an accelerated growth trend. From 1992 to 200 1, it took 10 years for Sino-Russian trade breakthrough 10 billion dollars; 200 1 By 2004, Sino-Russian trade exceeded the $20 billion mark in three years. From 2004 to 2005, the trade volume between China and Russia approached the $30 billion mark in only 1 year (see the table below).

We must see that there are still some uncertain or irregular factors in Sino-Russian trade. For example, China's purchase of Russian military products and technical equipment for nuclear power plant projects does not happen every year, nor is it a stable factor for the sustained growth of trade. Therefore, whether Sino-Russian trade can continue to grow and accelerate depends mainly on the potential of general commodity trade and service trade.

(A) Russia's market demand potential is still great.

In recent years, with the sustained growth of Russian economy and the increase of residents' income, Russia's demand for the following products will continue to expand.

1. Mechanical and electrical products. At present, a considerable number of existing household appliances in Russia need to be eliminated. It is understood that more than half of color TV sets need to be upgraded, and the demand for refrigerators, air conditioners and small household appliances is strong. In the past 10 years, the number of harvesters and tractors that can be used normally in Russia has been reduced by nearly half, and the annual scrap rate of equipment has reached 6%~ 10%. It is urgent to update agricultural machinery and tools and establish a new maintenance system. Russia's woodworking machinery is backward, and only wood can be processed preliminarily, so there is great demand potential for this kind of mechanical products.

2. Building materials products. As the Russian real estate market continues to heat up, the demand for building materials shows an obvious upward trend. At present, 70% of insulation materials needed by Russia are imported, including door and window materials, plumbing equipment, roofing materials, plywood, paint, metal tile and natural tiles.

3. Textiles and clothing. At present, Russia's annual consumption of clothing and textiles is about $36 billion, including clothing, shoes, pillow towels, bath towels, bedding, cotton cloth, silk and so on. Russia's textile industry has outdated equipment and backward technology, which is far from meeting the demand and mainly depends on imports.

4. Furniture. According to the prediction of Russian experts, the demand for furniture in Russia will increase by 5-7 times in the next five years. The biggest obstacle to Russian furniture production is outdated equipment, with the aging rate reaching 70%~80%, and 40% of the equipment has been used for more than 20 years. Russia relies on imports for 85% of MDF used in furniture production, and high-quality veneer materials and paints are also mainly imported. The main problem of China furniture exported to Russia is that the design style does not match the market demand.

5. Agricultural products. The agricultural production capacity in the Russian Far East is declining year by year, and the contradiction between supply and demand of agricultural products is becoming increasingly prominent, so the cost of transporting agricultural products from Europe is very high. At present, there are about 800,000 tons of grain, 400,000 tons of vegetables, 400,000 tons of meat and meat products, 600,000 tons of milk and dairy products and 400,000 tons of fruit in the Far East alone. 80% of the vegetable demand in the Russian Far East is imported from Heilongjiang Province, and the market price is 4~6 times that of domestic similar products.

(b) The demand for some Russian products in China market is sustainable and has growth potential.

From the perspective of the next 5~ 10 years, the demand of China market for many Russian products, including technical products, is not only sustainable, but also has predictable growth potential, which is embodied in the following six aspects.

1. The demand for energy products will show an increasing trend. With the development of China's economy, the demand for energy, especially oil, natural gas and electricity, will greatly increase, and the scale of energy imports will continue to expand. Take oil as an example. China imported 70.27 million tons of oil in 2000, 60.26 million tons in 2006, 694,654.38 million tons in 2002, 9,654.38 million tons in 2003 and 654.38 million tons in 2004. China adopts a diversified strategy in oil import, but importing oil from Russia is the focus of this diversified strategy. In the past six years, with the increasing import of oil from Russia, we will see the broad prospects of Sino-Russian oil trade. China imported Russian oil/kloc-0.4767 million tons in 2000, 0.766 million tons in 2006, 3,029,600 tons in 2002, 5,254,800 tons in 2003, 0.774 million tons in 2004 and 2005. With the laying of oil and gas pipelines and the connection of power grids between China and Russia, the scale of Sino-Russian trade in this field is bound to expand day by day. If the rise in oil prices is taken into account, the total bilateral energy trade will be even more impressive.

2. China's demand for Russian nuclear industry technology and equipment is still great. According to China's energy strategy, accelerating the development and utilization of nuclear energy and building more nuclear power plants have been included in China's long-term construction plan. In this field, Russia has great advantages and export capacity, and the technology and equipment that can be exported to China are highly competitive.

3. China's demand for Russian timber is sustainable. At present, 40% of China's timber needs to be imported, and Russia is fully capable of meeting the gap in China. Only Russia regards timber as a strategic resource, so it has taken restrictive measures in logging and export, which has restricted the timber trade between China and Russia. In spite of this, the trade volume of Russian timber imported by China is still increasing year by year. In 2000, China imported 593 1 000 cubic meters of wood from Russia, 8765,000 cubic meters in 2006, 5438+0,480,840 cubic meters in 2002 and 436,700 cubic meters in 2003.

China's demand for Russian coal, mineral products, non-ferrous metals, chemical raw materials and fertilizers will only increase, but will not decrease. This demand in China will not weaken or disappear for a long time. Russia has the supply capacity in this field, and China's demand scale and purchasing power are no problem.

5. China's demand for Russian large-scale power station equipment and large-scale engineering construction machinery will also maintain a considerable scale and a high level. In the future, China's infrastructure construction and real estate development will remain hot areas for government and enterprise investment, and Russia can make great achievements in the export of some large-scale construction machinery.

6. China has a strong demand for Russian technology products in many fields, such as biotechnology, materials technology, nuclear industry technology, agricultural technology, aerospace technology and information technology. Although China has formulated and implemented the strategy of independent innovation, it takes a process from basic research to the formation of industrial technology, and it also advocates innovation on the basis of imitation and absorption. Russia has unique advantages in the above technical fields. From the overall technical level of Russia, Russia's 1/4 technology is in the world's leading level, 1/2 is in the world's first-class level, and two-thirds of the technical level is equivalent to that of the United States. Therefore, the potential of Sino-Russian technology trade is very great. If Russia can fully realize its own advantages, truly regard China as a reliable strategic partner, and completely get rid of the thinking mode during the Cold War, the technology trade between China and Russia will have broad prospects.

Second, the factors affecting the sustainable development of Sino-Russian trade

(A) trade with Russia has not yet formed a scale and standardization.

In 2005, the total border trade between China and North Korea reached US$ 5.57 billion, a year-on-year increase of 32.7%. This is just the statistics of the customs, and the actual border trade volume is much larger than this. The reason why Sino-Russian trade can reach the scale of more than 30 billion US dollars, except for border trade, is mainly driven by some large projects and bulk trade, such as military trade, oil and gas trade, supporting products for power station construction, etc., while the proportion of conventional general commodity trade is not very large. After great waves in the 1990s, individuals, individual enterprises and large state-owned trading companies trading with Russia in China basically withdrew from Russia. Therefore, two prominent characteristics of current trade with Russia are: non-scale and non-standardization. This form of trade is developing to a higher level, and it is more difficult to achieve leap-forward development.

(2) At present, the commodity trade between China and Russia is mainly concentrated in the Russian Far East Siberia.

Although China has the most geographical advantage in the trade with this region, after all, its population is limited, totaling over 6 million, its income level is far lower than that of Russia and Europe, its consumption level is low, and its market capacity is limited. China's border provinces and cities can become the market of Russian Far East Siberia, which is understandable, or is a unique condition. Enterprises from all countries have to squeeze into this area to do trade, which makes international trade competition become domestic enterprise competition and regional competition, and the trade interests of all parties will be reduced. Moreover, from the perspective of the sustainable development of trade with Russia, this is also a short-sighted and ambitious performance.

(3) Narrow trade channels with Russia have become the bottleneck of Sino-Russian trade development.

Among the Sino-Russian border trade ports, Suifenhe River has the best conditions and the largest freight volume, and it is also a trade port directly connected with Russia and trans-siberian railway. However, in recent years, the freight volume of Suifenhe River has been saturated. On Suibin Railway, Suifenhe-Xiachengzi 95 km is still a single line; Suifenhe-Grothkopp Wo 26 km is still a set of tracks. Although the Suiyang-Dongning local railway has been completed, it has not yet been connected with Russia. The bridge connecting Heihe River and Blagoveshchensk has not been built so far, and the expected land-sea combined transport channel connecting Mudanjiang River and Suifenhe River to Russian ports, Japan, South Korea, North America and the southeast coastal areas of China has not been fully opened. At present, although the roads leading to Suifenhe and Heihe in China have been greatly improved, the roads leading to other ports are still in poor condition, and a large number of imported goods cannot be shipped out quickly.

(D) At present, "grey customs clearance" is still prevalent. Although it is wishful thinking, it is Chinese businessmen or enterprises that suffer in the end.

Goods in China are confiscated and fined from time to time. For China, the "grey customs clearance" has caused people in China to compete for lower prices, interfered with the overall development of the Russian market, and damaged the image of Russian enterprises and Russian goods, which is a major hidden danger in Sino-Russian trade. From the Russian government's point of view, "grey customs clearance" causes the loss of state tax revenue, interferes with the normal trade order, corrodes state staff, tarnishes Russia's reputation, and even affects the process of "joining the WTO".

(5) In recent years, Russia has restricted the export of timber, minerals and other raw materials, which are commodities that China needs to import.

To continue to expand the scale of Sino-Russian trade, it is necessary to strengthen mutual investment between China and Russia, especially to increase China's investment in resource development and product processing, so as to promote trade through investment, optimize the trade structure between China and Russia and upgrade the trade level between China and Russia. However, the investment environment in Russia is poor and the investment risk is high. First, there are many technical requirements in Russian investment laws and regulations, which often lead to the arbitrariness of law enforcement. Second, local laws are inconsistent with federal laws, taxation and other related laws are unstable, and there are often laws that are not observed, which cannot fully protect the interests of foreign investors. Third, Russia still sets a series of restrictions on foreign investment, such as restricting the development of oil and gas resources, prohibiting the purchase of real estate, and restricting foreign investors from participating in state procurement and bidding for privatization of enterprises. The fourth is administrative barriers, such as setting conditions for foreign capital to enter the Russian banking system and setting the highest proportion of foreign capital in Russian enterprises (for example, the capital of natural gas enterprises cannot exceed 20%). Fifth, Russia's investment-related infrastructure and supporting facilities are not perfect, the government is inefficient, officials are corrupt, and the social security situation makes investors flinch.

(6) Sino-Russian trade structure began to appear friction and disputes.

In recent years, in Sino-Russian trade, China has mainly exported light industrial products and electronic products to Russia, which are basically finished products, while imports from Russia are mainly petroleum, timber, mineral products and various non-ferrous metals, all of which are raw materials or primary products. At present, textile products account for about 50% of China's exports to Russia, while raw materials imported from Russia account for about 60%. In this case, Russia not only did not complain, but even became disgusted and even vigilant. It believes that China only focuses on Russia's strategic resources and does not want to buy more Russian mechanical and electrical products, so it has repeatedly asked China to import more Russian mechanical and electrical products. We can understand Russia's mood, mentality and demands. But it must be explained and explained rationally and objectively. First of all, Sino-Russian trade is generally balanced, and in most cases it is Russia's surplus, which is completely different from the pattern of Sino-US trade. The emergence of this trade structure in Sino-Russian trade is by no means a man-made result, but is determined by the industrial structure of both sides and the complementarity of bilateral trade. Without this complementarity, Sino-Russian trade is impossible. Secondly, most of Russian mechanical and electrical products are inferior in quality and technology, and the after-sales service and spare parts supply are not in place, which is difficult for customers in China to accept, including the large nuclear power plant equipment exported from Russia to China. Its design concept is world-class, but the process quality is often problematic. In addition, we should also see that most of China's enterprises importing mechanical and electrical products from Europe, America, Japan and other countries have invested and set up factories in China, while there are few Russian enterprises investing in China, so there is no demand in this respect.

Third, the sustainable development of Sino-Russian trade countermeasures

(1) Accelerate the transformation and construction of transportation routes and open up a big trade channel with Russia.

In recent years, it is necessary to complete the capacity expansion and reconstruction of Suifenhe Port, the reconstruction of Suifenhe-grotte-Kefu line, the reconstruction of Suifenhe-Mudanjiang double track and the construction of Dongning-Ussurisk local railway. Complete the electrification transformation from Harbin to Suifenhe and from Harbin to Manzhouli. Accelerate the construction of Heihe Bridge, Guluo River Heilongjiang Bridge, Luo Beida Bridge Bridge and Raohe Bridge, and complete the expressway construction from Mudanjiang to Suifenhe, Mudanjiang to Hailin and Mudanjiang to Acheng.

In terms of waterway, the navigation hub project of Dadingzishan in Songhua River, the waterway layout of Heilongjiang-Khabarovsk, Tongjiang-Khabarovsk and the port expansion project of Jiamusi-Fuyuan river-sea combined transport line will be completed as soon as possible.

(2) Take the border port cities and counties as the rear and the Russian Far East as the base to enter the Russian hinterland market (the European part of Russia).

Russia and some European markets have high consumption level, strong payment ability and great market potential, which are our target markets for expanding trade scale and improving trade level. Recently, the China Entrepreneurs' Federation is planning to establish China Mechanical and Electrical Products City in Moscow with related enterprises. The author believes that this is a good idea to further develop the Russian market. In order to enter and expand some European markets in Russia, on the one hand, it is necessary to establish a gradually extended trade base, storage system and sales network; On the other hand, it is necessary to optimize and integrate China's trade resources, form a business group or consortium to trade with Russia, and compete in some European markets in Russia with the best quality goods, the most reasonable price, the best after-sales service and the smoothest supply channels.

(3) Accelerate the development of production, processing and export bases of agricultural and sideline products in border areas.

In recent years, Heilongjiang Province has established grain export bases, vegetable export bases and meat, eggs and milk export bases to Russia. In the future, we should focus on cultivating leading enterprises, increase policy and financial support, improve the scale, quality and efficiency of export bases to Russia along the border, and maintain the momentum of sustainable development.

(4) Promoting trade through investment and realizing the integration of investment and trade with Russia.

As mentioned above, Russia wants foreign investment in the production of many products, infrastructure construction and transformation, and resource development and deep processing. We should seize the opportunity to establish enterprises in Russia that can meet the needs of the Russian market and produce products sold in Russia. This form will avoid all kinds of difficulties in entrepot trade, and adjust the production scale and product specifications at any time according to the changes in the Russian market and the requirements of consumers. In the process of investment, some mechanical equipment and raw materials need to be imported from China; Some products processed in Russia can also be sold back to the domestic market or to the third country market, thus generating a driving effect of investment on trade. The author believes that the establishment of a production and processing park in Russia can avoid many risks of investing in Russia, and it is easier to communicate with the relevant departments of the Russian government, so that the management of the park is more borne by the Chinese side and various uncertainties are avoided.

(e) North-South enterprises jointly invest in Russian projects.

In recent years, southern enterprises have become more and more interested in Russian market and investment, but due to their lack of understanding of Russian market and investment environment, they have little experience and lessons in dealing with Russian government and businessmen, so they are cautious and worried. And enterprises in Heilongjiang province have advantages in these aspects. If we can combine the capital advantages and management advantages of southern enterprises to jointly invest in Russian projects, we should complement each other and unite with each other, and we will get better investment benefits in Russia. Of course, the key to the success of this investment method lies in the selection of projects and the establishment of a good cooperation mechanism and mutual trust.

(six) with the help of the advantages of Russian enterprises, the investment strategy of shell operation is implemented.

At present, many large and medium-sized state-owned and private enterprises in Russia have poor operating efficiency, outdated technology and equipment, and their products are not suitable for market demand, but they lack funds for transformation and upgrading. For this kind of Russian enterprises, China's powerful enterprises can adopt the investment strategy of shell operation instead. On the one hand, it can save all kinds of complicated procedures for new enterprises, enjoy all kinds of relevant treatment of local enterprises, and make full use of the favorable conditions for Russian enterprises to deal with relevant departments of Russian local governments; On the other hand, we can give full play to China's advantages in capital, applied technology and management, and make the enterprise bigger and stronger. Of course, this Sino-Russian joint venture needs to clarify the division of property rights, the principle of income distribution, solve the Russian personnel resettlement and debt liability, and at the same time choose future development projects and design the management mechanism of the enterprise.

(7) Relying on the port advantages of Suifenhe River and the advantages of Russian forestry resources, establish a timber trading center covering East Asia.

At present, Longjiang Shanglian Group in Suifenhe is preparing to establish a timber exchange, and the idea of this project is very good. We should actively support it to make this matter bigger and better, and make it modernized and internationalized. This timber exchange should be designed according to international standards and adopt modern electronic trading means, including not only spot trading but also futures trading; Not only to attract customers from China, but also to attract Russian sellers and customers; Not only the wood in Suifenhe market, but also the wood in Heilongjiang Province and Russia; Its buyer customers are not limited to China, but oriented to Northeast Asia and even Southeast Asia. Russian forestry resources are an important support of this trading market. If Russian sellers and customers can enter this market in large numbers, it will not only save the cost of intermediate links, but also make wood prices more transparent and fair, improve transaction efficiency and save transaction costs. This realistic interest will push relevant Russian interest groups to ask the government to relax the restrictions on timber export and forest harvesting, so as to ensure the continuity and long-term nature of China's timber import to Russia.

(8) Develop and standardize border trade, and take the lead in establishing a Sino-Russian free trade zone with "one region spanning two countries" at Suifenhe Port.

After more than 30 years of development and ups and downs, Sino-Russian border trade should now be said to be increasingly standardized and normalized. In the first half of 2006, the border trade volume between China and Russia was $310.3 billion. Border trade has become an important part of Sino-Russian trade, which is indispensable to the economic development of bilateral ports and the employment of personnel. In 2006, Russia adopted a tightening policy on border trade, and the goods carried by natural persons in transit duty-free were reduced from 50 kg to 35 kg, with the intention of "forcing" border trade to formal trade and increasing the federal government's tax revenue. However, this has harmed the economic interests of Russia's border areas, and the governments in Russia's border areas are very supportive of border trade because it embodies the common interests of both sides and has strong economic vitality. At present, Shanghai Shimao Group has invested and established a trade complex in Suifenhe China Customs District, which has a product processing area, a commodity storage area and a leisure and entertainment area. There are artificial lakes and two five-star hotels in the Sino-Russian border area, and the Russian highway outside the customs is also built by Shimao Group. In this way, the mutual trade zone, which was originally located at the border, began to develop into a Sino-Russian free trade zone and a comprehensive trade zone of "one area across two countries". This will not only expand the scale of border trade, but also enhance its stamina and attractiveness. In this regard, the Russian government and relevant authorities should give strong policy support and help, especially communicate with China, solve the problem of Sino-Russian policy coordination, and create conditions and environment for the development of enterprises and border trade.

Now, enterprises are ahead, and their strategic vision and investment courage are admirable. The government should also be brave in innovation, overcome difficulties, and work with enterprises to achieve the sustainable development of Sino-Russian trade.

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