Recently, with the country's strengthening macro-policy forecast, the domestic and international environment facing China's foreign trade development has slightly improved. With the slow recovery of the American real estate market, the sales volume of new houses increased by 265,438+0.7% in 2065,438+02, and the price rose obviously. The unemployment rate in September was 7.8%, the lowest since 2009 1. The European Central Bank launched a direct currency trading plan, and the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) launched a new round of rescue negotiations for Greece, which temporarily eased the European debt crisis, and the bond yields of peripheral countries such as Spain and Italy fell. The implementation of quantitative easing policy in major developed economies has played a role in restraining depression to some extent by reducing the yield of short-term bonds, reducing the cost of debt and boosting market confidence. Some emerging economies have also relaxed their macroeconomic policies, which will be driven by economic growth. According to the JPMorgan Chase Global Purchasing Managers Index released in September, it rebounded slightly from 48. 1 to 48.9 in August, indicating that the global economic recession has eased.

China's economic growth rate tends to be stable and continues to show positive changes. Compared with August, the growth rate, industrial production, retail sales and fixed assets investment index rebounded in September. The first time was four months and 49.8, which was close to the threshold of 50. The consumer confidence index rebounded in the ups and downs of the 65,438+000 line. It reached 100.8 in mid-September. The State Council issued several opinions on promoting the steady growth of foreign trade and providing export tax rebates and financial services. Improve the level of trade facilitation, improve the trade environment and optimize the trade structure, and put forward a series of specific policies and measures, such as expanding the scale of export credit insurance, improving customs clearance efficiency, reducing the statutory inspection and quarantine catalogue, standardizing and reducing import and export links. The gradual implementation of these policies and measures will strengthen the effect of the previous policy of steady growth of foreign trade, further enhance the confidence of import and export enterprises, especially small and medium-sized enterprises, ease the operational difficulties of Chinese enterprises and promote the steady growth of foreign trade.

At the same time, we should also see that the recovery of the world economy is still insufficient and it is difficult to fundamentally improve the weak external demand. The economic growth in the United States has not improved significantly, and the growth rate of personal consumption is still lower than before the crisis. With the weakening of the economy in the core countries of the euro zone, the heavily indebted countries have been declining, and the rate has soared to a record high, which has seriously limited the consumption power and confidence. Japan's post-earthquake reconstruction effect declined, the export situation deteriorated and economic growth slowed down. Emerging economies in underdeveloped countries "decoupled" and their growth rate slowed down. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts that the world economy will grow by 3.3% in 20 12, which is lower than 3.8% in 2010/year. Russia, India, Brazil and South Africa, among which developed countries increased by 1.3%, down by 0.3 percentage points over the previous year; Emerging markets and developing countries grew by 5.3%, 0.9 percentage points lower than the same period of last year, and the growth rate will be lower than 20 1 1. The World Trade Organization (WTO) predicts that global trade will increase by 2.5% in 20 12, which is far lower than 5% in 2012. Coupled with the sharp increase in trade friction against China products, the external environment faced by China's foreign trade development is still extremely complicated, and it takes great efforts to achieve a stable recovery of imports and exports.

Based on the above factors, it is predicted that the import and export in the fourth quarter of 20 12 will continue the upward trend in September. China's share of global trade is expected to remain stable or increase slightly when the growth rate of foreign trade in major economies generally slows down or shows negative growth. Analysis of China's Foreign Trade Development Environment

In 20 13 and 20 13 years, the internal and external environment faced by China's foreign trade development may be slightly better than that in 20 12 years, but the resistance to the stable rebound of foreign trade still exists.

Internationally, the macroeconomic policy with this country aggravated the debt crisis and eased it slightly, so as to stabilize the trend of American economic recovery, promote the development of market confidence and expectations, and improve the development of the global economic environment by 20 13. The sovereign debt problem in developed countries has weakened the potential side effects of economic growth, and the measures to stimulate the economy have become increasingly prominent. Coupled with trade and investment protectionism, many difficulties faced by emerging economies are increasing, and the momentum of low growth and high risks in the world economy has not changed significantly.

First of all, the momentum of global economic growth is still insufficient.

Developed economies such as the United States and Europe generally need sustained fiscal austerity policies. In the short term, it is difficult for enterprises to form a scale to invest in emerging industries, and the effective demand that loose monetary policy cannot fundamentally reverse is insufficient. Coupled with restrictions such as high unemployment rate, the economic growth momentum is still weak. Some emerging economies rely on energy exports, and the imbalance of international payments is gradually exposed, which increases the risk of slowing economic growth. The IMF predicts that the global economic growth this year will be 3.6%, 20 13, and 4% before the financial crisis, which is lower than the average level of 10. The WTO predicts that global trade will increase by 4.5%, which is obviously lower than the average level of 6% before the financial crisis of 10.

The sovereign debt problem of developed countries may rise again.

Debt crisis, institutional crisis, European monetary union, and more competition crisis in peripheral countries of the euro zone. The preliminary ideas of the European Stability Mechanism and the banking union have been implemented, and the weak links in the design of the euro zone system have been gradually strengthened. However, it will be a long process for peripheral countries to improve their competitiveness, not only because of the huge financial gap, but also because of the relatively weak industrial base. During this period, if the economic and political situation deteriorates more than expected, it may lead to fluctuations in the financial market. 20 13 The financing demand of peripheral countries in the euro zone is still high, and some countries are facing the influence of general elections and European financial markets, which deserves close attention. The fiscal cliff in the United States involves about 4% of GDP. If it is not handled properly, it may drag the recovery of the American economy to recession.

International financial and commodity markets may continue to fluctuate.

In the near future, major economies such as the United States, Japan and Europe will adopt quantitative easing policies. For example, Australia, South Korea, India and Brazil will also cut interest rates to stimulate the economy, which may lead to frequent fluctuations in the exchange rate of a country's currency, and the large-scale cross-border flow of international capital and global financial stability will be affected. Major grain-producing countries such as the United States and Russia have suffered from severe drought, which has led to a global reduction in wheat and corn production, the fragile geopolitical oil supply in the Middle East, loose global monetary policy, and the influx of speculative capital. Speculative profits in commodity markets, agriculture and energy prices are facing greater upward pressure.

This further aggravates trade and investment protectionism.

Without obvious improvement, some countries' economic recovery, easing employment pressure and closing domestic markets to support local industries have hindered normal international trade and investment activities. According to WTO monitoring, from May 2011to May 20 12, *** 182 added trade restrictions, affecting 0.9% of the global import restrictions, which had a far-reaching impact on the crisis and recession and stimulated the recovery of domestic industries. Conservative attitude, transnational investment in emerging industries in some countries, trying to limit. In electoral politics, it has catalyzed the economic and trade policies of some countries and even the dangerous trend of "de-globalization".

, gradually put in place, give play to effective policies and measures to expand domestic demand and stabilize external demand. Domestically, China's economic operation is generally stable. The CPC Central Committee 18 further stimulates the enthusiasm of all parties and is conducive to continuing to promote steady and rapid economic growth and accelerated development. The IMF and other institutions generally predict that China's economic growth will be faster in 20 13 than in 20 12. However, the basis of economic stabilization is still not stable growth, and some industries with prominent domestic demand system and mechanism factors have overcapacity, and production and operation still face many difficulties.

Under the joint action of domestic and foreign risk factors, China's foreign trade development will face greater pressure in 20 13, which is highlighted in the following aspects:

First of all, the contradiction of insufficient external demand has not been fundamentally alleviated.

Under the trend of weak world economic recovery, the problem of insufficient orders for Chinese export enterprises is still outstanding, especially the situation of short orders, small orders, long orders and large orders will continue. As of September 20 12, the manufacturing purchasing managers' index and the new export order index were below 50 for the fourth consecutive month. 20 12 in the first three quarters, the import of processing trade only increased by 1%, indicating that it was more difficult than Big bounce in the export period. The achievement exceeds 1900 key foreign trade enterprises. According to the data of the Ministry of Commerce, as of September 20 12, the export profit index of enterprises has been below the critical point of 100 for five consecutive months.

Continue to increase the impact of trade frictions.

China is the biggest victim of trade protectionism. According to the monitoring of the British "CEPR World Trade Early Warning" project, since 2008, 40% of the world trade protectionist measures have been aimed at China. With the upgrading of China's export industries from labor-intensive industries to emerging industries, foreign countries have restricted the export growth of emerging industries in China. In the first three quarters of 20 12, China's export products encountered 55 cases of foreign trade remedy measures, up 38% year-on-year, involving US$ 24.3 billion, up nearly 8 times year-on-year. The trade friction experienced by solar photovoltaic cells in some overseas markets has caused serious setbacks in exports.

The more urgent task is to change the growth mode of foreign trade. "

In recent years, China's factor cost has risen rapidly, which has weakened the cost competitiveness of manufacturing industry to some extent. From 2008 to 20 1 1 year, the average wage of manufacturing employees in urban units increased by 14.5% annually, with an average annual growth rate of 15%. With the accelerated development of industrialization, there are indications that some sensitive industries and product orders are being transferred to neighboring countries. In the first seven months of 20 12, the market share of seven categories of labor-intensive products in the United States, Europe and Japan decreased by 2. 1, 1.4 and 2.7 percentage points respectively compared with the previous year, and the surrounding low-cost countries were squeezed out. While external demand is declining, facing international competition and the comprehensive advantages of technology, quality, brand and service of export enterprises, it is urgent to accelerate the development of labor-intensive products in China.

You know, in the past 10 years, the 16th Party Congress of China * * * and the fastest-growing decade of China's commodity trade, the import and export trade increased by more than 20% annually. 20 1 1 the annual global share of exports accounts for 10.4%, ranking first in the world for three consecutive years; It accounts for 9.5% of the total imports, ranking second in the world for three consecutive years. With the profound changes in the domestic and international environment, it may be difficult for China's foreign trade to reproduce the sustained high-speed growth in previous years.

Under the severe and complicated domestic and international environment, China's foreign trade policy should continue to focus on stabilizing growth, restructuring and promoting balance. On the one hand, on the current basis, closely follow the changes in the situation, ensure that the policies and measures introduced are in place, help enterprises overcome difficulties such as small orders, high costs and increased friction, strive to minimize the adverse effects of changes in the external environment, and go all out to stabilize foreign trade growth. On the other hand, in the long run, the mechanism will be forced to make full use of the tight market environment, accelerate the transformation of foreign trade growth mode, cultivate new advantages in foreign trade competition, vigorously explore new markets, accelerate the construction of foreign trade transformation and upgrading bases, promote the construction of trade platforms and international marketing networks, and enhance the long-term development potential, thus further developing foreign trade. At the same time, improve the import policy, promote the establishment of more import platforms, actively expand the import of the most advanced technology and equipment, key components and some goods with tight supply in countries with domestic shortages, and promote the balanced development of foreign trade.