First of all, comparative advantage is dynamic and has undergone important changes.
Since Adam Smith, the theoretical study of comparative advantage has been the focus of economics and has become the standard to guide the industrial policies of some countries. But what exactly is comparative advantage? What is the source of comparative advantage? There are different views in academic circles. According to the traditional view, comparative advantage is a manifestation of comparative advantage in international division of labor, which usually refers to the division of labor results of comparative advantage elements through comparative advantage industries, and the source of comparative advantage is the difference of factor endowments. The theory of dynamic comparative advantage extends this concept, and holds that the combination of technology, management advantages, marketing network advantages, production network advantages, institutional advantages and infrastructure conditions is also the source of comparative advantage. We believe that comparative advantage refers to the dynamic changes of comparative advantage factors and comparative advantage departments caused by factor accumulation and technological progress, which leads to the improvement of factor quality and the emergence of new higher-level factors, thus upgrading the comparative advantage departments or division of labor and improving the position of division of labor.
This judgment is based on the definition of comparative advantage and the change of its research status. Practice has proved that comparative advantage is not static. The understanding of comparative advantage is deepening with the development of economy and society and the deepening of research, during which it has experienced from single factor endowment to comprehensive factor endowment, from factor endowment to human capital accumulation and technical level. [1] The author believes that in addition, other factors that constitute industrial competitiveness, such as industrial supporting conditions, infrastructure, institutional factors, etc., should also be regarded as important factors of comparative advantage. At present, we believe that the changes of China's comparative advantage factors are mainly reflected in the following aspects.
1. The focus of comparative advantage gradually shifts from manufacturing comparative advantage to service comparative advantage.
Under the condition of open economy, the tradeability of goods and services has a great influence on a country's macro-economy, involving industrial structure, employment, income distribution, price level, real exchange rate, terms of trade and trade surplus. In China, vigorously promoting the service economy represented by producer services has become an important force to adjust and optimize the industrial structure. Therefore, while considering comparative advantage, we must attach importance to the study of comparative advantage of services under the background of service trade ability. It is worth noting that the comparative advantage of service industry is different from traditional manufacturing industry, which not only involves the necessary production activities in economic life such as service industry, but also is influenced by many factors such as people's income level and the elasticity of substitution with tradable goods. Therefore, in order to study the changes of industrial structure, it is necessary to analyze the demand side in the economy.
2. The comparative advantage factors change from relatively static to relatively dynamic.
Scholars who advocate static comparative advantages, such as Lin Yifu, Cai Fang and Zhou Li, think that China should give full play to the comparative advantages of labor-intensive industries, integrate into the international division of labor system to solve the employment problem, and make full use of foreign capital to learn advanced foreign technology and management technology; The optimization of industrial structure should be mainly decided by the market, so it is advocated that "industrial policy" should follow the idea of planned economy. [2] Scholars who advocate dynamic comparative advantages, such as Krugman, Grossman and Hupman, emphasize maintaining national economic independence under open conditions, advocate moderate opening, attract foreign investment, attach importance to economic (industrial) security, and emphasize the role of industrial policies, and think it is necessary to strive for catching up in strategic industries. In reality, the first choice is likely to fall into the so-called "comparative advantage trap", while the second choice will have the opportunity to push China to catch up with the related industries and realize the "leap" of industrial upgrading.
3. The elements of comparative advantage shift from elements to links or departments.
We believe that the traditional comparative advantage theory is aimed at the comparison between price competition and opportunity cost, in other words, the traditional comparative advantage focuses on the innate factor endowment and the acquired factor accumulation. However, in today's enterprises, competition has shifted from cost-price competition to non-price competition such as product differentiation, service, brand and response speed, so the understanding of comparative advantage must be expanded. The author thinks that comparative advantage should include not only the factors of improving productivity and reducing cost, but also the factors of improving value and ability. It can be said that after expanding the concept and connotation of comparative advantage, the rise of factor prices is not the main reason that affects comparative advantage, but the control of links and profits and the dominance of distribution in the global value chain division system are the most important factors that determine comparative advantage. The control and monopoly of multinational corporations on the high-end links of the industrial chain and the price war between enterprises in China are the fundamental reasons for the formation of the trade pattern and comparative advantage between China and developed countries. [3]23
4. The domestic market effect in comparative advantage
The traditional theory of factor comparative advantage has a strong explanatory power in explaining inter-industry trade, but it is not satisfactory in the face of the growing intra-product trade, which is the so-called "Leontief paradox". Linde and others explain this phenomenon from the preference similarity theory, and think that the local market, demand scale and income level will also affect a country's comparative advantage. On this basis, Lancaster, Krugman, Grossman and Hupman put forward the famous "local market effect", arguing that economies of scale can promote commodity trade between countries with no differences in factor endowments in the same industry. [4] Rodrik and Short (Rodrik &; Schott) and others found in the empirical study of China's export commodity structure and comparative advantage that compared with China's factor endowment and economic development level, China's export commodity structure is unique. Davis and Weinstein (Davis &; Weinstein), Lin Faqin, Tang, etc. The comparative advantage of China industry is explained by "domestic market effect", and it is believed that the expanding domestic market in China will promote the formation of economies of scale. However, many manufacturing sectors, especially the electromechanical industry, have strong economies of scale, and industrial agglomeration in China has given China a comparative advantage of economies of scale in these products, which is surpassing the comparative advantage of factor endowments. [5]
5. The influence of relative price distortion on comparative advantage
The assumption of traditional comparative advantage theory is equivalent exchange, that is, not only the parties involved in the international division of labor carry out equivalent exchange according to the relatively unified international value, but also the determination of comparative income between different domestic commodity production is carried out under the conditions of relatively equal, fairness and justice. However, in fact, international trade is an unequal exchange. Developed countries usually take advantage of their dominant position in the global market, core technology and global industrial chain to raise the prices of their own comparative advantage products at will and obtain excess comparative benefits, thus solidifying the pattern of comparative benefits in the national division of labor. In addition, the distortion of various factor prices and product prices within a country has also become a normal phenomenon, [6] which has become an important factor to change the initial comparative income conditions, leading to changes in comparative advantage departments and industrial restructuring.
Second, the dynamic changes of China's industrial comparative advantage and its impact on industrial restructuring.
1. Dynamic changes in the comparative advantage of China's industrial development.
The explicit comparative advantage index (RCA index) put forward by American economist balasa is a representative index reflecting the comparative advantage of product export. This paper intends to use this index to measure the influence of the change of China's industrial comparative advantage factors on the upgrading of industrial structure.
In order to better study the industry differences under the influence of China's industrial comparative advantage, we divide China's manufacturing industry into six categories according to the factor intensity: technology-intensive industries, medium technology-capital-intensive industries, medium technology-labor-intensive industries, capital-intensive industries, medium capital-intensive industries and labor-intensive industries, and calculate the RCA index of these sub-industries. The calculation results show that from 1992 to 2009, the RCA index of labor-intensive industries in China is the highest and has the most comparative advantage, but its value gradually shows a downward trend, from 2.4 in 1992 to about 1.6 in 2009. At the same time, labor-intensive industries with medium skills have a relatively fast comparative advantage, and their RCA index rose from 1.45 in 0992 to 1.4 1 in 2009, changing from a comparative disadvantage industry to a comparative advantage industry, gradually replacing labor-intensive industries and becoming the most comparative advantage industry in China. It can be seen that with the changes of China's comparative advantage factors, the differences of China's comparative advantage industries are becoming more and more obvious. In the future, with the cultivation of human capital and the improvement of technical level in China, medium-skilled labor-intensive industries are expected to become the industries with the most comparative advantages (see figure 1).
Figure 1 Present situation and development trend of comparative advantages of manufacturing industries in China
Source: Calculated according to China Statistical Yearbook of relevant years.
2. The influence of changes in comparative advantage factors on industrial structure adjustment
At the same time, after more than 30 years of opening to the outside world and deepening of international division of labor, China's industrial structure adjustment has also been affected by changes in comparative advantages, showing obvious characteristics of moderate technical labor intensity. Since 1993, the proportion of moderate capital-intensive industries, capital-intensive industries and resource-based industries in China has not changed much, and has basically remained between 5% and 7%. Technology-intensive industries account for the lowest proportion, only about 1.6%, and the annual change is not significant. Medium-skilled labor-intensive industries, medium-skilled capital-intensive industries and labor-intensive industries have changed greatly, among which the proportion of medium-skilled labor-intensive industries has increased most significantly, from 25.7% in193 to 32% in 20 10, and reached 33.4% in 2003. On the whole, the proportion of labor-intensive industries in industry showed a downward trend, with the highest of 25.75% in 1994, and has been declining since then. It reached its lowest point in 2007, accounting for only 16. 1% of the industry, which decreased by nearly 10 percentage point, and gradually rose to 265,438+in 20 10. The proportion of medium-tech capital-intensive industries in industry decreased from 17.4% in 1993 to 15% in 20 10. On the whole, the industrial structure within China's industry has gradually changed from labor-intensive to medium-skilled labor-intensive, and the technical intensity of industrial development has gradually increased, and the industrial structure optimization situation is obvious (Figure 2).
Figure 2 1993-20 10 Industrial Structure of Factor Intensity in China
Third, the trend of industrial structure adjustment in China and its influence on comparative advantage
Generally speaking, developing countries may face a dilemma while developing their own industries: first, develop their own industries with comparative advantages (generally low-tech and labor-intensive industries) according to the principle of comparative advantage; The second is to enter industries that lack comparative advantages at present, but can gain competitive advantages through potential labor productivity growth (such as high-tech and capital-intensive industries). The cultivation process of potential labor productivity is also the formation process of dynamic comparative advantage. The shaping of this dynamic comparative advantage is not only related to a country's industrial structure policy, but also closely related to a country's position and changing direction in the global industrial division of labor system.
1. The new global division of labor system is gradually deepening from inter-industry division to intra-industry and intra-product division.
According to the static comparative advantage, the international division of labor is carried out among industries divided by factor density. For example, developed countries focus on capital-intensive and technology-intensive products, while developing countries focus on labor-intensive industries with labor-intensive elements. This is the direct embodiment of vertical trade among global industries. At present, with the scientific and technological revolution and the accelerated development of multinational companies, the global division of labor has begun to change from vertical to horizontal, and more and more inter-industry division of labor is facing the process of deepening the division of labor within industries and products. However, if the vertical international division of labor is carried out according to the traditional comparative advantage, China's industries are likely to fall into the trap of low-end production of labor-intensive industries. Because the direction of a country's industrial structure adjustment under the new division of labor mode is mainly manifested in the improvement of the position and value-added ability of the industrial chain or product flow, speeding up the industrial structure adjustment and extending the division of labor to the industry and products along the nodes of the global horizontal division of labor chain can prevent China's industry from falling into the "trap" of low-end locking of comparative advantage.
2. The direction of industrial structure upgrading in China is to shift from the leading role of the secondary industry to the balanced development of the secondary and tertiary industries.
According to the classical industrial economic theories of Petty, Clark, Chenery and Kuznets, we can know that with the increase of per capita national income, the industrial structure will gradually shift from the primary industry to the secondary industry and the secondary industry to the tertiary industry. Wang Yueping also believes that China's industrial structure is unreasonable, the proportion of the secondary industry is too large, and the proportion of the tertiary industry is low. In order to improve the national income level, the proportion of the tertiary industry in China should be increased to more than 60%. [3]2 1 Of course, increasing the proportion of the tertiary industry in the national economy does not mean that the secondary industry is shrinking. Industry, especially manufacturing, is the foundation and pillar of the national economy. Therefore, while developing the tertiary industry, we should further accelerate the pace of industrialization, appropriately raise the prices of service elements and outputs, and promote the reasonable price comparison relationship between industrial products and services, thus promoting the balanced development of industrial structure.
3. Tradeable commodities and structural changes in nontradable goods.
The pulling effect of exports on economic growth has been widely valued. On the one hand, the increase in the proportion of exports to GDP is the result of a country participating in the global division of labor and vigorously implementing the export-oriented economic strategy. On the other hand, the transformation from non-tradable goods to tradable goods is also conducive to promoting the growth of exports and the formation of comparative advantages. Following the research ideas of predecessors, we take the proportion of export delivery value in the total output value of various industries, that is, 10%, as the standard for dividing tradeable goods and non-tradeable goods. If the export of this product is greater than 10% of its total output, it belongs to tradeable goods, otherwise it belongs to non-tradeable goods.
According to our calculation, the total export value of China's industrial manufacturing industry accounts for more than 10% of the total manufacturing output value, which belongs to tradeable goods, and its value rose from 18.24% in 1993 to 23.53% in 2007, greatly improving the degree of tradeability. In terms of industries, China's textile, clothing and other fiber products manufacturing, leather, fur, down and its products, furniture manufacturing, cultural and educational sporting goods manufacturing, plastic products manufacturing, metal products manufacturing, general machinery manufacturing, electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing, electronic and communication equipment manufacturing, instrumentation, cultural office machinery and other industries account for a large proportion of the total output, indicating that the industrial characteristics of China's trade goods not only reflect China's labor-intensive comparative advantages, but also reflect. From the structural transformation characteristics of tradable goods and non-tradable goods, the products of oil and gas exploitation, non-metallic mineral exploitation and other industries are transformed from tradable goods to non-tradable goods, and the products of special equipment manufacturing, transportation machinery and other industries are transformed from non-tradable goods to tradable goods, which shows that the relative structure of tradable goods and non-tradable goods in China has improved, the strategic role of oil and gas in the national economy has been enhanced, and exports have decreased; However, the international competitiveness of products such as special equipment manufacturing and transportation machinery has improved and exports have increased. In addition, the tradable rate of China's main service products, such as transportation, communication and information services, has gradually increased (see Figure 3), greatly optimizing the relative export structure of China's traded goods and non-traded goods.
Figure 3 Tradeable rate of main service products in China.
Source: China Statistical Yearbook and China Service Trade Yearbook.
4. Changes in the relative prices of products of three major industrial sectors in China.
Theoretical analysis shows that unequal exchange in international commodity exchange has become an important factor affecting comparative advantage. The price contrast of various factors in a country, or the distortion of product prices, has also become the motivation to induce price regression or structural adjustment. Through the analysis of the relative changes of prices in different industries, we can get some enlightenment from the adjustment of industrial structure and the changes of comparative advantage in China. By analyzing the price indexes of the three major industries in China (last year 100), we can find that the price trends of the three major industries in China are relatively consistent. Further observation reveals some subtle changes. For example, the price of industrial and agricultural products has risen more obviously than that of service products, and the price of industrial and agricultural products has risen faster than that of service products (see Figure 4). That is to say, compared with agricultural products and industrial products, the price of service products in China has been underestimated.
Figure 4 Price changes of three major industrial sectors in China.
Source: China Statistical Yearbook (1990-20 1 1).
Four. Brief conclusions and policy recommendations
The research in this paper shows that comparative advantage is dynamic and changing gradually. Since the reform and opening up, the adjustment of industrial structure in China is also the result of the change of comparative advantage industries caused by the change of comparative advantage factors. At the same time, the direction and mode of industrial structure adjustment in China also have an important impact on the formation and shaping of dynamic comparative advantage. However, at present, China's industrial structure adjustment and upgrading still faces some problems, such as insufficient cultivation of the intermediate sector, too strict restrictions on the size of the local market, distorted factor prices, lack of key technologies and high trade costs. Therefore, we should vigorously cultivate dynamic comparative advantages and promote the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure. The main measures include: (1) vigorously cultivate the intermediate sector, promote the concentration of capital and technical factors, shape dynamic comparative advantages, and realize dynamic upgrading of comparative advantages; (2) promoting the tradeability of service products and developing producer services; (3) reducing trade costs and enhancing China's right to speak in global trade; (4) Strengthen the domestic market effect and promote the coordination between demand structure and industrial structure; (5) Optimize the allocation of resources and straighten out the relationship between factor prices; (6) upgrade key links and technologies, enhance the status of international division of labor and increase added value.