Sohu blog
At present, the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States broke out in an all-round way, which not only triggered global financial turmoil, but also began to have an impact on the real economy. With the stock market crash and credit contraction, investors' confidence collapsed, and many developed countries and some emerging market countries fell into recession one after another, the risk of the world economy entering stagnation or even recession increased significantly. The financial crisis and its economic recession will inevitably have negative effects on China's inbound tourism revenue, tourism enterprise investment and domestic tourism consumption.
First, inbound tourism may decline. China's inbound tourists mainly come from Hongkong, Macau, Taiwan Province Province, South Korea, Japan, Russia and other neighboring regions and countries. At present, Hongkong, Taiwan Province Province, South Korea and Japan have all been deeply impacted, with the stock market plunging and the economy slowing down. As Donald Tsang, Chief Executive of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, mentioned in his annual policy address a few days ago, the depth and breadth of the destructive power of this financial crisis far exceeded that of the Asian financial turmoil of 1997. As China's largest source of inbound tourists, South Korea's economy has also been significantly affected-a 65438 report released by the Korean Ministry of Finance1October 6 said that the financial crisis may reduce South Korea's economic growth rate to below 4.5%-4.9% in 2008 (Lee Myung-bak's government, which took office in February this year, said in last year's election campaign that it would achieve an economic growth rate of 7%, but due to the unfavorable economic situation, South Korea. China's second largest inbound tourist source country, Japan's prosperity index also continued to deteriorate, the stock market plummeted and the economy declined. In the long-distance market, China's main inbound tourists are the United States, Britain, German, Canadian and French in the Group of Seven. At present, the stock markets in these countries are depressed, the investment confidence of enterprises is insufficient, and private consumption is generally reduced. In this context, both business tourism and leisure tourism will be affected, which will weaken the pulling effect of the Olympic Games on China's tourism to a certain extent, thus slowing down the growth of inbound tourism and even reducing the absolute amount.
Second, the price advantage is weakened. In the case of continuous domestic economic recession, the US government issued a large number of US dollars to stimulate the economy, which led to a sharp depreciation of the US dollar. At the same time, the financial crisis has seriously endangered the credit crunch in Europe, dragged down the economies of various countries into recession, increased the depreciation pressure of the euro and the pound, and accelerated the appreciation of the renminbi. According to the data released by China Foreign Exchange Trading Center, the central parity of RMB against British pound rose above the integer mark of 1 to 13 for the first time on August 4th, and then broke through the mark of 1 to 12 on September 6th, reaching/kloc-. The RMB is also constantly appreciating against the euro, reaching a new high since the exchange rate reform of 65438 1 October 7, reaching19.328. In addition, the renminbi has also shown a continuous appreciation trend against currencies such as the Japanese yen and the Hong Kong dollar. Although the impact on China's financial system is relatively small, the continuous appreciation of RMB against the US dollar and other currencies will weaken the long-term price advantage of China's inbound tourism.
Third, domestic tourism expenditure has decreased. On the one hand, the financial crisis has aggravated the decline of China A-share market, shrunk investors' assets and weakened the actual purchasing power of some residents. Some people say that "the middle class in China is almost wiped out in the stock market", and the wealth "negative effect" of the stock market adjustment will be unprecedented, and the consumption hotspots dominated by the middle class, such as tourism and automobiles, will surely cool down. On the other hand, the financial crisis has many uncertainties and potential risks, which also makes people's risk aversion generally rise, and they are not optimistic about the future employment situation and income expectations. When residents' income expectations are not good, the first thing to be compressed is non-essential consumption such as tourism. Therefore, domestic tourism will also be affected.
Finally, enterprise financing tends to be difficult. At present, the global financial system is in turmoil, and the non-performing assets of banks have risen sharply. In order to avoid risks, banks are generally reluctant to lend. At the same time, the financial crisis has posed a severe challenge to the "Wall Street Model" and exposed serious loopholes in product innovation and market supervision in modern financial industry. In view of this, our government will inevitably further strengthen financial supervision and tighten monetary policy. In terms of macroeconomic policies, in order to prevent the economy from falling too fast and prices from rising too fast, the central government has put forward a macro-control policy of "one guarantee and one control", which determines that monetary policy cannot be relaxed obviously in the short term. Even if the "two rates" were lowered not long ago, it was only to solve the financial difficulties of small and medium-sized enterprises, and the impact on the financing of large-scale projects such as resorts, theme parks and tourism real estate was extremely limited. Therefore, affected by the financial crisis, the financing of such enterprises will become more difficult.
Generally speaking, in terms of consumption, the financial crisis will have a certain negative impact on China's inbound tourism and domestic tourism. Specific to different industries and markets, its impact may be different: as far as industries are concerned, the hotel industry and aviation industry are more affected; As far as stratification is concerned, enterprises located in the high-end market are greatly affected, while the low-end market is relatively less affected. In terms of investment, it will make the financing of large-scale tourism projects more difficult.
Although tourism has some resilience, its sensitivity is obvious to all. From "9 1 1" and SARS to tsunami and earthquake. A noteworthy phenomenon is that the above-mentioned events have aroused widespread concern in the industry, but the financial crisis sweeping the world has not attracted enough attention so far. In fact, the above-mentioned events only affected some countries and regions, and they were mainly due to psychological fear. The financial crisis is global, mainly due to economic impact. Therefore, compared with the former, the negative impact of the financial crisis on tourism may be more profound, extensive and lasting. In this regard, we must have full mental preparation and positive countermeasures, and we must not take chances or take it lightly.
First, the impact of the financial crisis on tourism in China
1. Inbound tourism will face the possibility of further decline.
2. Outbound tourism will face the possibility of slow growth.
3. Domestic tourism will face the possibility of "three drops and one short".
4. The possibility that tourism enterprises will face operational difficulties.
Second, the opportunities faced by China's tourism industry after the financial crisis
1. The "Olympic effect" will exist for a long time in the next few years and may appear when the international economic situation improves.
2. "Stimulating domestic demand" will stimulate tourism investment.
3. "Eight Plans" will stimulate tourism consumption.
4. "Low-cost tourism" will stimulate tourism demand.
5. "Guaranteeing employment" will enhance the status of tourism.
6. "60th Anniversary" will boost national consumer confidence.
7. "Taiwan Province Province Tour" will become a new tourism highlight.
8. "Shanghai World Expo" and other activities will probably form a "preheating market".
Three. Countermeasures of China Tourism after the Financial Crisis
1. With the support of national policies and measures, enterprises work together to tide over the difficulties.
2. Improve the level of internal management and accelerate the pace of industrial restructuring.
3. Seize the opportunity of the financial crisis and solve the "bottleneck" according to local conditions.
First, foreign trade continued to grow rapidly in the first three quarters.
In the first three quarters of 2008, China's foreign trade accelerated its structural adjustment and achieved sustained and rapid growth under the influence of unfavorable factors such as the slowdown of world economic growth, the rising prices of international energy resources and domestic production costs, and the tight liquidity of small and medium-sized enterprises. The main features are:
1. Export growth slowed down, import growth accelerated, and foreign trade surplus decreased. In the first three quarters, the total import and export value of commodities was196765438+300 million USD, up by 25.2% year-on-year. Among them, 1 quarter exports increased by 30.3%, and the growth rate slowed down in the second and third quarters. In the first three quarters, the total export volume was107.406 billion US dollars, an increase of 22.3%, and the growth rate dropped by 4.8 percentage points compared with the same period of last year. Since the beginning of the year, the import growth has accelerated, with a cumulative import of 893.07 billion US dollars, an increase of 29.0%, and the growth rate is 9.9 percentage points higher than that of the same period last year. The foreign trade surplus was US$ 6,543.8+US$ 080.99 billion, down 2.6% year-on-year.
2. The export of mechanical and electrical products grew rapidly, and the import price of energy rose. In the first three quarters, China's largest export commodity, mechanical and electrical products, exported 61700 million US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 24.0%. Affected by rising operating costs and weak demand, the export of clothing and clothing accessories in traditional commodities only increased by 65,438 0.8%, and the growth rate dropped by 265,438 0.2 percentage points compared with the same period of last year. The export growth of other commodities slowed down. Among the imported commodities, the fastest growth is still energy and resource commodities. Crude oil imports increased by 8.8% year-on-year and the amount increased by 85.5%; Iron ore imports increased by 22.0%, and the amount increased by116.0%; Soybean imports increased by 32.3%, and the amount increased by 137.4%.
3. General trade maintained strong growth, and the growth rate of processing trade continued to decline. In the first three quarters, China's general trade continued to grow strongly, with the total import and export value reaching US$ 956.57 billion, an increase of 35.9%. Among them, the export was 500.78 billion US dollars, an increase of 26.9%; Imports reached US$ 455.79 billion, up 47.3%, 22.7 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The growth of processing trade slowed down further, with the total import and export value of US$ 803.40 billion, up 13.8% year-on-year. Among them, export growth15.6%; Into 10.7% growth.
4. The growth rate of exports to the United States slowed down sharply, and exports to emerging markets increased rapidly. In the first three quarters, China's export growth to developed markets slowed down. Exports to the European Union reached US$ 220.47 billion, up by 25.6%, exports to the United States18965438+300 million, up by1.2%, and exports to Japan reached US$ 85.85 billion, up by 16.0%. Bilateral trade with some emerging economies continues to grow rapidly. For example, exports to India increased by 43. 1%, exports to South Korea increased by 28.4%, and exports to Brazil increased by 90.2%.
Second, the annual export growth rate may be lower than 20%.
The current financial crisis is spreading to the real economy. As personal consumption expenditure and export growth were lower than expected, the GDP growth rate of the United States in the second quarter has been revised from the previous 3.3% to 2.8%. Some research institutions predict that American personal consumption will experience negative growth in the third and fourth quarters, and accordingly, the American economy will enter at least moderate negative growth. The euro zone and Japan have fallen into negative growth in the second quarter. Growth in developing countries and emerging economies has also begun to slow down. Imports of major developed countries may shrink in the fourth quarter, and global commodity trade will also slow down significantly. Affected by the financial crisis, some regions and enterprises have difficulties in payment. China's import and export enterprises have clearly felt the reduction of new export orders and the increase of payment risks.
In July, the futures prices of major primary products in the international market began to fall. The recent turmoil in the financial market and concerns about the future global economic downturn have further squeezed the inflation component of futures prices. However, commodity prices denominated in US dollars are still at historical highs, and the possibility of large fluctuations caused by speculative factors cannot be ruled out. China's domestic inflation rate is still not low, and the export industry will continue to be plagued by rising costs.
Since the reform of the exchange rate mechanism, the RMB has appreciated by more than 20% against the US dollar, and by more than 8% against the euro and the Japanese yen. Recently, the RMB exchange rate has been basically stable, which is related to the measures taken by major developed economies such as the United States, Europe and Japan to stabilize financial markets and curb large exchange rate fluctuations. This temporarily eased the difficulties brought by the rapid appreciation of the renminbi to export enterprises.
Based on the above factors, it is expected that the export growth rate of China will further slow down in the fourth quarter, and the annual export growth rate may fall below 20%.
Third, the foreign trade situation in 2009 is not optimistic.
First, the world economy will fall into a downturn, and the possibility of deepening the crisis cannot be ruled out.
Although governments are taking coordinated actions to build breakwaters so that the financial tsunami will not cause the Great Depression like 1929, it is expected that it will take a long time to restore market confidence and solve institutional and structural problems. According to optimistic estimates, the economies of developed countries will not start to recover until at least the second half of 2009 or even later. The extent to which developing countries and emerging economies are affected by the financial crisis remains uncertain. The whole world economy will enter a long-term depression. At present, the real estate market in the United States has not shown signs of full recovery, and the subprime mortgage problem may still worsen, making more non-performing loans of financial institutions surface. Therefore, the possibility of deepening the financial crisis is not ruled out.
Second, the price of primary products will continue to be at a high level and fluctuate violently.
If the price of primary products can fall back to a lower level, it will obviously be good news for reducing the cost burden of importing countries and stimulating economic recovery. However, the huge demand of emerging markets and the bioenergy policy of the United States, which are the main factors leading to the soaring prices of energy and resource commodities in recent years, have not changed. However, the supply of energy and resource commodities is restricted by the increasing difficulty of mining, the insufficient investment of producing countries and the decrease of agricultural cultivated land, so it is not easy to increase the supply. In order to maintain high oil prices, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries recently planned to reduce global oil production. A large amount of liquidity injected by countries to save financial markets, as well as concerns about the decline in the value of currencies such as the US dollar, will make more international hot money use commodity futures as a hedging tool. All these factors will aggravate the price fluctuation in the international commodity market.
Third, the prospect of Doha Round is dim, and the threat of trade protectionism is increasing.
Unlike the 1997 Asian financial crisis, which only affected some markets, developed economies such as the United States and Europe fell into financial crisis, which affected the stable operation of global trade. After the Doha Round broke down in July, although many members, especially developing countries, hoped to restart the negotiations, some fundamental differences were difficult to bridge in the short term. The outbreak of the financial crisis has made the prospect of a breakthrough in the Doha Round negotiations even more bleak. Moreover, the shrinking trade volume and the rising unemployment rate will make some countries and regions turn to more conservative trade policies, and the threat of global trade protectionism will increase.
Generally speaking, the economic downturn of major trading partners, the sharp drop in import demand, the sharp fluctuation of international commodity market prices and the possible depreciation of major currencies triggered by the international financial crisis will further affect China. It is predicted that the foreign trade situation in 2009 should be very pessimistic. Both import and export growth will slow down.
Fourth, China has certain space to cope with the impact.
China's foreign trade has achieved rapid growth for seven consecutive years. In recent years, the government has substantially adjusted its foreign economic and trade policies, including the continuous appreciation of the RMB exchange rate, which has enabled enterprises to adapt to the survival and development in a tight environment in advance. Many localities and enterprises have actively changed their growth mode, optimized the structure of import and export commodities, accelerated technological progress and transformation and upgrading of processing trade, vigorously explored emerging markets and achieved positive results. A few enterprises that only rely on low-price competition have been eliminated, while enterprises that have certain advantages in technology, brand and customer channels have achieved greater development. The prices of most export commodities have gone up. It should be said that the overall competitiveness of China's export industry is still relatively strong, and the low-cost advantage has not been lost. The global financial crisis and economic downturn will give birth to a new round of international industrial adjustment. For the import and export enterprises in China, they are facing great challenges, but they may also get new development opportunities.
In 2009, the inherent kinetic energy of China's economic development is still sufficient. The fundamentals of the national economy and financial system are healthy. Thoroughly implementing Scientific Outlook on Development, adjusting and optimizing the structure and coordinating urban and rural development will bring huge and long-term investment and consumption demand. Relying on the solid material foundation formed since the reform and opening up, adopting flexible and prudent macroeconomic policies and actively and effectively expanding domestic demand will support and promote the steady and rapid economic growth.
China Municipal Government recently decided to increase the export tax rebate rate for labor-intensive products such as clothing and textiles and high value-added mechanical and electrical products, and there is still considerable room for operation in supporting the export of advantageous enterprises and products in the future. All regions and departments will increase credit support for import and export enterprises, speed up the progress of export tax rebate, encourage and help enterprises overcome difficulties, develop marketable products and expand new markets. At the same time, China has sufficient foreign exchange reserves, and will continue to actively expand imports to promote the basic balance of international payments. This is conducive to improving relations with major trading partners and reducing the pressure of trade protectionism. China's investment environment and infrastructure are constantly improving, with great growth potential. So far, the enthusiasm of foreign investors for direct investment in China has not diminished. Therefore, in the medium and long term, China's foreign trade development prospects are still very bright.
Looking at the future of China's financial supervision system from the international financial crisis
Looking at the future of China's financial supervision system from the international financial crisis
In the American financial crisis, the comprehensive operation of American financial institutions and the problems exposed by the American regulatory system undoubtedly sounded the alarm of financial risks again. In the past 30 years of reform and opening up, China's financial supervision system has grown from scratch. Before the reform and opening up, the People's Bank of China integrated its financial business and management, and financial institutions such as banks, trusts, securities and insurance were gradually established. The People's Bank of China specializes in the functions of central banking and financial supervision. Today, with the establishment and consolidation of the separate financial system, China has established a "one line, three meetings" financial supervision model of the People's Bank of China, China Banking Regulatory Commission, China Securities Regulatory Commission and China Insurance Regulatory Commission. Undeniably, China's financial supervision system reform has made great achievements in the past 30 years. However, in the process of promoting the transformation of China's financial system from separate operation to comprehensive operation, the American financial crisis broke out and spread to the global economy. The comprehensive operation of American financial institutions and the problems exposed by the American regulatory system in this American financial crisis have undoubtedly sounded the alarm of financial risks again. & lt/P & gt； & LTP & GTSince the 1970s, due to the long-term stagflation of economic life and serious financial disintermediation, the United States has gradually relaxed financial control, and financial institutions have gradually broadened their business scope, opening up a "firewall" among banks, securities and insurance. 1999 After the promulgation of the Financial Services Modernization Act, the United States improved the original separate supervision system and formed a new supervision mode between separate supervision and unified supervision, which was called "umbrella supervision mode" by academic circles. Under this model, subsidiaries of financial holding companies are supervised by different industry regulators according to their different businesses. The Board of Directors of the Federal Reserve is the umbrella regulator of financial holding companies, which is responsible for evaluating and monitoring the overall capital adequacy ratio of financial holding companies with mixed operations, internal control measures for risk management and the potential impact of group risks on deposit subsidiaries. In addition, state governments in the United States also have certain regulatory authority in banking, insurance and securities, especially for insurance institutions. However, the outbreak of the financial crisis in the United States shows that under the background of the highly mixed operation and rapid development of the financial industry, this kind of regulatory system arrangement can not effectively supervise the financial market, and may even delay the favorable opportunity to resolve financial risks because of its unclear internal coordination and division of labor, leading to the further accumulation of financial system risks and the formation of systemic risks, which will eventually lead to the outbreak of systemic risks in the form of crisis. & lt/P & gt； & ltP> Specifically: First of all, this "two-line multi-head" supervision mode is prone to a regulatory vacuum, and the biggest vacuum is that the regulatory standards of various departments are not uniform, resulting in overlapping and blind spots. Not only that, there are too many regulators in the United States with overlapping powers. Secondly, while supervision overlaps, there are also many blind spots. For example, financial derivatives such as CDO (debt-backed securities) and CDS (credit default swaps) have not been supervised by any regulatory agency so far. Finally, due to the existence of multi-head supervision, no institution can obtain sufficient legal authorization to be responsible for the risk monitoring of the entire financial market and financial system. & lt/P & gt； At present,<P> has a relatively small impact on China's financial system. On the one hand, it benefits from the effective supervision of the regulatory authorities; on the other hand, China's financial institutions are not innovative enough to participate in the international financial market competition more deeply, and thus get away with it. However, at present, the painful fact that many large domestic companies have disclosed huge losses due to financial derivatives investment mistakes once again shows the heavy price paid by the relatively backward development of financial markets. Therefore, in the process of financial system reform in China, we must not give up eating because of choking. Only by continuing to deepen the reform of the financial system and promoting the development of separate operation to comprehensive operation can we continuously improve the breadth and depth of China's financial market, and only in this way can we more effectively support China's economic growth. & lt/P & gt； & ltP> However, in view of the grim reality brought by the current financial crisis in the United States, in the process of deepening the reform of the financial system, we should pay special attention to drawing lessons from the financial crisis and steadily promote the reform of the financial supervision system to better meet the needs of the reform and development of the financial industry. The author thinks that, on the whole, because the scale of China's financial mixed operation has not yet formed and the mode of separate supervision is relatively solidified, in the initial stage of the development of mixed operation, the mode of China's financial supervision should be a combination of unification and separation. Specifically, under the framework of unified supervision, China's supervision system can be constructed by implementing specialized division of labor within the supervision institutions, that is, establishing China Financial Supervision and Management Committee as a centralized and unified supervision subject, and internally constructing a "trinity" supervision system of China Banking Regulatory Commission, China Securities Regulatory Commission and China Insurance Regulatory Commission; In view of the serious consequences caused by the lack of supervision of financial derivatives in this financial crisis, we should pay special attention to clarifying the supervision responsibility of financial derivatives and strengthen the communication and coordination among various supervision departments through the form of system; With the further development of China's financial industry, when conditions are ripe, it will gradually change from institutional supervision mode to functional supervision mode, and finally form a financial supervision framework in which the People's Bank of China is responsible for financial policy and the Financial Supervision Committee is responsible for financial supervision. & lt/P & gt； & ltP> Of course, in the process of reform, we still need to make overall plans and take measures to reduce the risks of financial reform. On the one hand, accelerate the improvement of laws and regulations on comprehensive operation and financial supervision, and at the same time vigorously promote the cultivation of high-quality financial talents to form a financial supervision team with a global vision; On the other hand, we will continue to promote the corporatization reform of financial institutions, improve the corporate governance structure, and establish a strict information disclosure system and immediate risk control system as soon as possible. Finally, it should be emphasized that in order to identify and prevent financial risks in a timely and effective manner, regulators should continue to strengthen cooperation, jointly establish an immediate risk control system, send early warning signals to financial institutions in time, and take targeted prevention and control measures. At the same time, financial supervision departments should actively cooperate with relevant economic departments, establish a system of publicity and punishment for violations of information disclosure of financial institutions, severely crack down on violations of financial institutions, purify the financial market environment, and promote fair competition in the financial industry. & lt/