First, the formation of "population"
How many only children has the basic national policy of family planning brought to China?
This question is like how many people in China have a bachelor's degree, and the National Bureau of Statistics quietly gave us the answer.
In 2005, China conducted a sample survey of 1% population. This survey released a very rare data: the number of only children in China by age (0-30 years old). Neither the sixth population census in 20 10 nor the 20 15 1% population sample survey published this data.
The number of people in the table is sampled according to the ratio of 1.35%, so it is not the number of only children in the whole population, but we can get the absolute number of only children by zooming in. In addition, we can also get the proportion of the only-child population of 0-30 years old according to the age statistics of the national population in the same survey, as shown in figure 1.
Figure 1. The proportion and scale of the only child aged 0-30 in China in 2005 (based on the article published by Zhai Zhenwu and others on 20 14, re-search the data source).
According to the above data, we can roughly calculate that the number of only children aged 0-30 in 2005 was 65.438+0.58 billion. These people will live to be 20 18, which means 13-43 years old.
198 1 year, the national family planning commission was formally established, and China has a formal special agency to take charge of family planning, which is also the first year born after 1980s (note: those born after 1980s are not counted). Similarly, according to the above data, we can calculate that during the 20 years from 198 1 to 2000 (post-80s and post-90s), the total population of the only child was 1 020,000, that is,1100 million people. Today, it is the age to consider getting married and having children.
The population of post-80s and post-90s is about 489 million, and the proportion of only child is 20.9%. If we only consider 90, the proportion is as high as 26.9%. Of course, this ratio is overestimated. Because the data is the cross-sectional data of 2005, families who gave birth to only children are likely to give birth after 2005, but because there is no relevant data to support it, it will not be discussed here. However, the two-child policy was introduced after 20 14 years, so the number of only children after 80' s and 90' s is about1000000, accounting for about 20%, which is quite credible.
In the whole animal world, single seedling exists, but it is often a random phenomenon. Whether cats and dogs, chickens and ducks, fish and turtles, shrimp and worms, most of them have brothers and sisters, and human beings are no exception. Only the generation born in 1980s and 1990s in China have no brothers and sisters, and they have become a brand-new "species" on this planet.
Second, "reproductive isolation"
The proportion of 20.9% or 26.9% does not seem to be a high proportion, but it is actually a proportion enough to form an "isolated population".
Just like the discussion about Pinduoduo two days ago, the so-called "new middle class" with 7.5 1% undergraduate education has been completely separated from those "lower classes" and "unimaginable poor people". Their information depends almost entirely on smart phones, which automatically block Pinduoduo advertisements that have been broadcast on CCTV for three years. They didn't realize the existence of Pinduoduo until the official WeChat account they followed reported its housing information. In the subsequent discussion, they were still immersed in the "echo room" and commented on the people at the bottom. Their surprise is not fake, but that they really don't know how people with a monthly salary of less than 5000 can live.
In the past, most of the discussions about the only child focused on the growth environment, personality and so on. However, from the perspective of "species formation", the most important factor in the formation of "species" of only children is their marriage tendency.
This is not a politically correct question, nor a decent question, but it is a very practical question. Usually this kind of question is answered by serious scholars. Guo Zhigang, a professor at Peking University, and Xu Qi, an assistant researcher at Nanjing University, published a paper in China Population Science 20 14. They used the data of 20 10 family tracking survey in China to make an in-depth study on the marriage matching of the only child, and the conclusion was intuitive:
Only children are more likely to marry only children, and non-only children are more likely to marry non-only children.
The research shows that 26.6 out of every 100 only children marry their only daughter, while only 5 out of every 100 non-only children can marry their only daughter. Out of every 65,438+000 only children, 40 marry only children, while out of every 65,438+000 non-only children, only 9 can marry only children.
This remarkable difference shows that an isolated "group" is forming.
On the one hand, the attribute of the only child is related to urban and rural household registration, birthplace, age, education level and other factors, which have been repeatedly proved to affect marriage matching. However, after controlling these factors, the author still draws the conclusion that "the only child is obviously more willing to choose the only child" through the regression model, which shows that the attribute of the only child itself has become a certain mate selection standard. As shown in Figure 2, after controlling the household registration, age, education level and other factors, "whether the wife is an only child" still significantly affects the husband's only child attribute.
Figure 2. ? Regression analysis of whether the husband is an only child.
Statistically speaking, marriage is an economic problem.
Economy is nothing more than two aspects, stock and flow. In the choice of marriage, economic stock usually refers to the economic conditions in family of origin, that is, the parents of the married person can give support to the new family. In fact, this can be made clear by a simple question: if you have two potential marriage partners with similar conditions in all aspects, but one is an only child and the other is not, which one would you choose?
In order to answer this question, I may have to discuss something less decent again.
After the founding of New China, especially after the reform and opening up, the first incidents of fighting for family property broke out in the post-40s and post-1950s: they often had many children and accumulated a lot of wealth because of real estate development, land expropriation and other factors. However, at the age of 80 or 90, their children born after 60 or 70 turned against each other for property. The younger son scolded his sister and the sister-in-law beat his brother-in-law. David has fresh materials all over the country.
The post-60s and post-70s have no choice, but after witnessing the absurdity at home, they are not married. Their choices will naturally be greatly affected.
As for traffic, from a statistical point of view, the income of only children is often greater than that of non-only children. 20 14 Dr. Tian Feng and Dr. Liu Yulong of China Academy of Social Sciences published "Analysis of the Influence of Higher Education on the Difference between Only Children and Non-only Children" in "Population and Economy". According to the data of the third national comprehensive survey of social conditions, this paper finds that:
Only children are 4.5 times more likely to receive higher education than non-only children. Even after controlling for factors such as age, sex, parents' years of education and household registration, the only child is still 1.8 times more likely to receive higher education than the non-only child.
In terms of income, the income of only children is also significantly higher than that of non-only children. It should be noted that this remarkable effect is indirectly influenced by "higher education", that is, after adding the variable "whether you have received higher education" to the model, there is no significant difference in the income of only children and non-only children. However, the statistical mediation effect is meaningless in real life, and there are significant differences, and people don't care what the path is.
In my experience of recommending others countless times, whether the only child has become a common concern after height, appearance, education and family background.
Third, the "gene" continues.
20 15, 15 On February 27th, the National People's Congress Standing Committee (NPCSC) voted to pass the amendment to the population and family planning law, which was formally implemented in the universal two-child policy on June 27th, 20 1 year.
"All-round two children" refers to the policy that all couples, regardless of urban and rural areas, regions and nationalities, can have two children.
On August 6, 20 18, the overseas edition of People's Daily published a commentator's article "Giving birth to a child is a family matter as well as a national matter", encouraging people to respond to the comprehensive two-child policy and actively give birth, so as to alleviate the social problems brought about by the disappearance of demographic dividend and aging.
However, it is difficult to improve the fertility will that has declined because of the policy.
In 20 14, Dr. Hou Jiawei from Central University of Finance and Economics and his collaborators published a meta-analysis of 227 surveys in China Social Sciences (the top journal of social sciences), and comprehensively investigated the fertility wishes of China people from 1980 to 20 1 1. The result of the article is not optimistic.
In 1980- 1989, the average ideal number of children (ideal number refers to the best number of children that is acceptable to families or couples based on economy, ethics and customs) is 2.13; By 1990- 1999, the index had fallen to1.90; 2000-20 1 1, the index fell to 1.67.
20 16 The Children's Work Department of the All-China Women's Federation, the National Collaborative Innovation Center for Quality Testing of Basic Education, and Beijing Normal University conducted a survey on the impact of implementing the universal two-child policy on family education. The scope includes parents of children aged 0 to 0/5 in Beijing, Liaoning and other provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) 10. The survey results show that 20.5% people are willing to have two children, and 53.3% people don't want to have two children, that is, more than half of the one-child families don't want to have two children, especially in developed areas.
Many people think that only-child couples may be more willing to have more children because they lack brothers and sisters in childhood. However, judging from the existing literature, this guess is not valid.
It can be seen from many surveys on the fertility will of the only child in cities that there is no significant difference between the only child and the non-only child. Not all the only children in cities think that it is best to have two children, and the ideal number of children is nearly half or more; The actual number of children and birth plan of the only-child youth are lower than the fertility will. (Feng, 2004,2010; Ma Xiaohong and Hou Yafei, 2008; Song Jian and Chen Fang, 2065438+00; Wait).
Even some studies have found that the fertility desire of only children is obviously lower than that of non-only children: a survey conducted by Yin Qin et al. (2006) in Changzhou found that the fertility desire of only children is 1.3 1, and that of non-only children is 1.40.
The actual fertility rate is often far below the ideal number of children and fertility will in the survey.
20 18,65438+10 month,18, National Bureau of Statistics released the latest population data. In 20 1723,000, the number of people born in China decreased by 630,000 in 2017 compared with 20 16, and the birth rate also decreased from 1.29% to 654. 30 years ago 1987, the figure was 25 million.
Unwilling to have more children, even unwilling to have children, spread like genes among this generation of young people. In the password of "Gene", not only the basic national policy of "family planning" is written, but also the school district room attached to the primary school in Tsinghua, monthly rent, extracurricular classes, sponsorship fees, papers on studying abroad and extracurricular activities. ......
Biology defines species as a group that cannot mate with other organisms to produce fertile offspring, so the formation of species is an evolutionary process of reproductive isolation between organisms. Although many people don't want to admit it, the "species" of the only child has been formed and will continue their "genes".
Precautions:
1. Because there is no 0 year. AD 0 is actually BC 1, so naturally it cannot be counted as after 00. So those born in 80 years are not after 80, but after 70.
References:
Coyne J.A. & Orr, H. A. (2004). Speciation. Sunderland, Massachusetts: Sinauer Associates? ISBN 0-87893-089-2.
Guo Zhigang,&; Xu Qi. (20 14). A study on the matching between the attribute of the only child and marriage-a test of the hypothesis of "random marriage". China population science? 6, 004.
Tian Feng,&; Liu Yulong. (20 14). Analysis of the influence of higher education on the difference between only child and non-only child. Population and economy, (5), 5 1-6 1.
Zhai Zhenwu, Zhang Xianling and Jin Yong 'ai. (20 14). The demographic consequences of immediately and fully liberalizing the second child policy. Population research? 2( 1).
All-China Women's Federation. (20 16). The influence of implementing the universal two-child policy on family education.
Hou Jiawei, Huang, Xin, Zhang Hongchuan,&; Dou Donghui. (20 14). The change of fertility will of China population:1980-2011. China Social Sciences? 4, 80-99.
Laughing in the wind. (2004). Fertility Desire of Urban Youth: Current Situation and Comparative Analysis. Jiangsu Social Sciences, (4), 175- 18 1.
Laughing in the wind. (20 10). Giving birth to a second child: analysis of the wishes of couples with a second child and related factors. Social science? 20 10(5), 58-66.
Ma Xiaohong,&; Hou Yafei. (2008). Fertility Desire of Beijing's only child and "double-independence" families and its changes. Population and economy, (1), 15- 18.
Song Jian,&; Chen Fang. (20 10). Deviation between urban youth's fertility will and behavior and its influencing factors-a survey from four cities. China population science? 20 10(5), 103- 1 10.
Laughing in the wind. (2009). Fertility will of the first generation of only children: What do we know at present? . ? Journal of social science of hunan normal university? 38(6), 57-62.
Yin Qin, Wen Yong, Zong Zhanhong, Shuai Youliang,&; Xu Pei. (2006). Fertility Desire of Childbearing Age Population in Changzhou and Its Influencing Factors. Journal of Nanjing Population Management Cadre College. 22(2), 40-43.
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