The signs of stability are obvious. The question is, what will happen next?
Yes, how will this round of market evolve? Has attracted much attention. Most investors and institutions have a strong risk-averse thinking. Not many people dare to take chestnuts from the fire and look for low-priced assets. Of course, things are not so pessimistic.
First of all, China and the United States are still talking, and there is a turning point. Appropriate easing is possible; Secondly, various financial and opening-up measures will not stop, and hedging and balance will play a certain role; Third, some domestic institutions must always obey; Finally, there will still be favorable factors such as supporting unicorns and CDRs.
Even so, this time I have to say the lever game, which really underestimates that China and the United States will make such a big mess. What impact will the subsequent development of the stock market have on the property market? I have the following three judgments:
1, the stock market has been saved, and it is temporarily tepid, and it is acceptable to fall when there is no way.
This time is different from three years ago. Both are internal and external causes, especially serious external causes. It is impossible not to save them. This concerns the confidence of the whole world in our country.
But objectively speaking, after the stock market turmoil and rescue three years ago, the leverage ratio of the stock-related market has dropped significantly. Although there are ups and downs, the leverage ratio of the property market, including the debt ratio of professional investors, ordinary home buyers, developers and related industries, is not very exaggerated.
More importantly, although the China stock market is dominated by a large number of retail investors, it cannot dominate the market that is often slaughtered. However, the allocation of retail investors' stock assets relative to the property market assets is actually 9 Niu Yi cents, which is not even comparable to the total amount of various deposits and deposits.
Therefore, the stock market can certainly be saved, and today (June 20) the actions and statements of all parties have explained the problem. However, because the total assets allocated by shareholders to the stock market are limited after all, it is acceptable to fall a little when it is unbearable.
The vast majority of investors will not follow their inclinations because of the stock market decline. On the contrary, investors are the most rational people in China, and they are most willing to lose. Because many of them are gambling, and they know it is gambling.
Many people are used to investing by unusual means and speculating in a rotten market order, and everything is acceptable.
Now, it's hard to say what will happen between us and America. Before the lever game, Trump was really underestimated and accepted criticism from many golfers.
The more underestimated it is, the more it shows that Trump is firm in seeking to maximize the interests of the United States, not focusing on such a small profit, but seeking a stronger systematic plan for the United States.
What do you think we can do when we meet such an opponent? The place to carry, the place to mainly can only mainly. Of course, the United States is not without defects. Let's analyze the defects of the United States and emerging markets.
2. American residents' assets are highly bound to US stocks, and the United States is more afraid of falling; Harvest in emerging market countries is a high probability event; China is more resilient, in fact, he is not so afraid of falling, nor is he afraid of falling.
In the emergency of 1000 shares falling below 3000 points, the CEO of the central bank just said:
The People's Bank of China has always attached great importance to the impact of external shocks. Actively do a good job in relevant policy reserves, comprehensively use various monetary policy tools, maintain reasonable and stable liquidity, grasp the strength and rhythm of structural deleveraging, promote stable and healthy economic development, and hold the bottom line that systemic financial risks do not occur.
Figure 1. Yi Changxiang was interviewed by shanghai securities news. Image source | Central Bank website
Yi Gang also said that China will continue to unswervingly deepen reform and open wider to the outside world. Reform and opening up are beneficial to China and the world.
The release signal is:
1. On the one hand, deleveraging in China will be carried out firmly, so don't expect the central bank to release water.
2. The central bank will also provide appropriate help. The bottom line is that systemic financial risks will not occur. For example, in the 20,000-word working document entitled "The Transformation of China's Monetary Control Mode in the Stage of High-quality Economic Development" published on the website of the Central Bank on June 19, RRR was mentioned nine times to cut interest rates.
At the same time, the article also points out that China's monetary policy regulation mode should be changed from monetary quantity regulation to monetary price regulation. Therefore, don't expect too much from low-cost funds.
3. China's attitude towards domestic reform and opening up is clear. We welcome doing business with the world and global capital investment.
As mentioned above, we have to recover, but even if we have to fall again, we can accept it. America is different. The bull market in the United States has been eight or nine years, and the valuation is at a high level anyway.
Many assets of American residents are linked to the stock market, and many of their pension funds and assets invested in the stock market through the 40 1K plan are very high. Just like the recently popular "Tomorrow Fund" on East Wall Street, it highly binds the interests of the whole people with those of the government and chaebol.
Do you think the United States can accept a worse decline than ours? Therefore, if there is no lower limit for Sino-US trade conflicts, Americans will feel uncomfortable. President Trump is under great pressure at home.
Of course, Americans are also smart. On the one hand, they have established a free trade system with developed countries. On the one hand, harvest emerging market countries. As Guan Qingyou, president and chief economist of Financial Research Institute, said, the signs of global capital flowing out of emerging markets are very obvious, global liquidity contraction and asset repricing are definite trends, and the crisis in emerging markets is definite trends.
In this regard, the lever game is deeply touched. Through harvesting, the United States can gain benefits. But the United States still dare not take it lightly. In fact, we don't want the US stock market to plummet, because the consequence is that the global financial system will be seriously impacted.
If a chain reaction is triggered, the consequences can be imagined. We are the second largest economy in the world, and how much interest do we have in the United States ... So, we'd better have a good negotiation.
Having said the defects of the United States, it is time to talk about the defects of China.
Exchange rate and real estate market must not break out.
The leverage game has been analyzed above. Anyway, our stock market is at a low point. How bad can it be? I experienced it on 20 15, and it has been "falling endlessly" for decades. I am afraid of hair.
But the exchange rate is different from the property market.
As repeatedly analyzed before the leverage game, the confidence of the RMB must be guaranteed, otherwise it will plummet. The problem now may not be the collapse of the renminbi, but the fear of excessive appreciation.
In other words, the current worry is two-way. On the one hand, the renminbi cannot plummet, which will seriously affect confidence; On the other hand, the excessive appreciation of RMB is also terrible, which will affect the export and domestic asset pricing.
Regardless of the concerns of the former. Zhang has analyzed it many times. Talk about the latter. Everyone still remembers the Plaza Accord and the bursting of Japan's asset bubble.
If it appreciates sharply, how can it benefit exports? If there is a crisis in the trade surplus, our defense ability will be seriously reduced. At the same time, if the appreciation is obvious, we seem to be intoxicated with the illusion that we can buy the whole world. Isn't the domestic real estate bubble bigger?
Therefore, whether it is a thousand miles or a sharp appreciation, it is terrible. What I'm afraid of is that domestic asset prices can't stand it. The leverage game is more direct, that is, the house bubble cannot continue to blow and cannot be broken casually. I can't stand blowing up bombs in the future. If it breaks down directly, it will be unbearable immediately.
The leverage game has been analyzed above. Too many assets of China residents are in the house, which is the same as that of American residents who are highly bound to the stock market interests. It is just a new form of assets. But the difference is that the stock market can support high-quality enterprises and can flow efficiently.
And our real estate bubble-by the way, all bubbles that are not broken are not bubbles. In addition to supporting steel, building materials, home appliances, decoration and automobiles, it has limited help for scientific and technological progress and production efficiency improvement, and for industries with global value. On the contrary, people suffer from it, and real estate speculation has become a national belief. ...
Therefore, no accidents can happen. In the event of an accident, it may be a high probability event to embark on the old road of water release. If so, wouldn't the efforts to deleverage and crack down on the chaebol in the past two years fall short?
It's not easy to keep the exchange rate stable and house prices out of trouble. For some places, the leverage game really wants to say that you really shouldn't blow the real estate bubble too much for the sake of the country. The bigger you blow, the more pressure we have.