With the continuous development of human society, the level of urbanization is steadily improving. Especially in the recent stage, the state has issued a series of related policies: building a new socialist countryside, vigorously developing small and medium-sized towns and so on. At the same time, many rural residents yearn for urban life, and most urban residents are eager to gain a foothold in the city. Residents of small and medium-sized cities also want to explore their own sky in provincial capitals and developed cities, which leads to the continuous growth of floating population and urban population. The existence of a large number of floating population determines the strong demand of the residential rental market. However, at present, the management of China's residential rental market is extremely irregular and the rent is unreasonable. The inefficiency of the rental market leads to the fact that most residents can only realize their housing demand by buying houses, which undoubtedly leads to excessive demand in the first-class real estate market. At present, our city is implementing the household registration reform to encourage foreign residents to buy houses in Romania. In addition, experts predict that by 20 10, China's urban population will reach 6 10/00000; In the next 20 years, more than 300 million people in China will move from rural areas to cities; According to the statistics at the end of 2005, the population of our city has reached 64 1.7 million, and will reach 6.65 million by 20 1 year. Then, according to this calculation, China needs to build 327 million square meters of houses every year to meet the needs of residents, and our city will also build nearly 4 million square meters of houses every year.

The second reason: the change of residents' consumption structure and its influence.

Humans generally go through several processes when eating: from no food, to food, to delicious food, to health, to culture and taste. Similarly, consumers' demand for housing has changed from no housing, to housing, to good housing, to comfort, pleasure and happiness, so that they can really live and work in peace and contentment ... Therefore, the consumption structure of residents is constantly changing, and the requirements for the comprehensive quality of housing are getting higher and higher.

In view of this phenomenon, when developing projects, developers constantly try to improve the comprehensive quality of real estate, work hard on quality, do a good job in landscape planning of real estate, improve supporting facilities and strengthen property management. , thus pushing up house prices.

This phenomenon can indeed meet the housing needs of residents, but some development enterprises blindly develop large-area, high-grade and luxurious houses in pursuit of profit maximization. If high, middle and low-grade houses can develop in a balanced way, the relationship between supply and demand can also reach a balance point, so that the development of the real estate industry can be benign. However, some developers blindly follow the trend and develop a large number of high-grade houses to raise housing prices. ...

Reason 3: The development cost is getting higher and higher.

1, land costs continue to rise.

Land is a necessary condition for the survival and development of the real estate industry, and it is also an important part of the cost of the whole commercial housing. After the implementation of the new national land policy, the land price rose rapidly and the land supply decreased greatly. The rapid growth of housing demand has further aggravated the contradiction between land supply and demand in real estate development. In the long run, due to the scarcity of land resources, the limitation of land supply and the difference of location, the relative shortage of land supply and the imbalance of land supply and demand, the land price has objectively increased to some extent. The further standardization of demolition work has also correspondingly increased the subsidy fee for demolition. On the other hand, the land transfer fee is also the source of funds for the government to carry out supporting infrastructure construction. So the cost of land will gradually increase. The surge in credit funds and the rise in land transaction prices are important drivers of the excessive rise in housing prices. The real estate industry is a capital-intensive industry, and its development cannot be separated from the support of funds and the supply of land. In recent years, it is these two factors that directly promote the excessive prosperity of the real estate industry and indirectly promote the sharp rise in housing prices.

Of course, our city is no exception. It is understood that the land acquisition price when the airport road is completed is about 260,000 yuan/mu, and the land behind it has now risen to more than 400,000 yuan/mu; Last year, the land acquisition price of a building under construction near Jiulongtai on the west bank of the Chan River was about 3 1 10,000 yuan/mu, and the land in the north of it has now risen to nearly 400,000 yuan/mu; In addition, in order to further speed up the construction of the new district and maximize the land revenue, the city has adjusted the starting price of the land that can be sold in the new district: the starting price of the land sold in the area north of Kaiyuan Avenue has been adjusted from 500,000 yuan to 550,000 yuan, and the starting price of the land sold in the area south of Kaiyuan Avenue and north of Guanlin Road has been adjusted from 450,000 yuan to 500,000 yuan. Recently, Hebei Dihua Enterprise Group won a piece of land covering an area of 324,234 mu in the new district at a price of 690,000 yuan per mu.

2. The cost of Jian 'an is rising.

In recent years, due to over-investment and other factors, the price of building materials has continued to rise. In 2004, the national fixed asset investment price increased by 5.6% over the previous year. Among them, the price of construction and installation projects increased by 8.2%, the price of materials increased by 10.7%, and the price of steel for construction increased by 17.4%. The rise in building materials prices directly leads to the rapid increase in the completion cost of commercial housing. In 2004, the average completion cost of commercial housing in China was 1.402 yuan per square meter, an increase of 10% over the previous year. ...

On the whole, despite the recent decline in building materials prices, the tight supply of raw materials will continue in the long run. The tight supply of electricity, coal and oil in China will continue; It is difficult to fundamentally alleviate the tension in railway transportation; The price of building materials will remain high.

3. Development tax rises.

Taxes and fees refer to business tax, urban maintenance and construction tax and education surcharge that should be included in the cost of construction and installation projects according to state regulations. Specifically, the taxes involved by real estate development enterprises are: business tax, urban construction tax, education surcharge, local education surcharge, urban land use tax, property tax, land value-added tax, stamp duty, corporate income tax, personal income tax, etc. It can be seen that there are many kinds of development taxes. At present, the comprehensive development tax has been raised from 5.5% to 9.8%, which has relatively increased the development cost to some extent.

4. The management cost rises.

At present, it is difficult for labor cost, project cycle cost and other related expenses to drop significantly. Due to the rigid characteristics of wages, the labor costs of real estate development enterprises will continue to rise; Most of the expenses during the project are collected by government departments and approved by relevant departments, which is unlikely to be reduced in the short term. ...

5. It's hard to reduce profits.

Because the state has adopted macro-control policies such as increasing the construction of ordinary commercial housing and affordable housing, rectifying and standardizing the market order, the profit of real estate is limited. However, as a legal entity in the market, real estate enterprises can only focus on profit, and most development enterprises are trying to improve their profit points through various channels in the process of development and construction. For example, many multi-storey projects are no longer allowed to be built on the seventh floor, but some development enterprises have built buildings on the sixth and seventh floors in order to increase profit points. So in the long run, this part of the cost will not have room for decline. ...

Reason four: the speed of old city reconstruction is accelerating.

At present, our city is vigorously promoting "building a city with the best living environment in the central and western regions", so it is necessary to speed up the transformation of the old city, beautify the style of the ancient capital and enhance the city's taste. Our city has identified 138 projects in the transformation of old districts, and 62 projects have entered the implementation stage. This year, 76 projects are planned to be implemented, with a total construction area of over 3 million ㎡ and a completed area of 2120,000 ㎡. At present, the city has transformed 22 plots in the old city and 36 plots in the village, and built 63 projects such as International Trade Center and Xigong Pedestrian Street through land transfer. The reconstruction of villages in cities is in full swing. Among them, the urban reconstruction projects such as Dongjiangou, Jinguyuan Road, East Station, North Street and Yiyong Street are nearing completion, and the reconstruction projects such as Dongxiachi, Tonglezhai, Xinjie, Peony Square, Shachang Road, Wangcheng Avenue, Jiudu Road, Chundu Road, Xia Yuan Road and Xusheng Village are in full swing, and many reconstruction projects such as Shentai New Century Square and Shijiatun on Jiudu Road are about to start.

Such a large-scale demolition and transformation of the old city requires a large number of houses to resettle residents, forcing the passive demand in the housing sales market to increase. Obviously, house prices will naturally rise. ...

Reason 5: The urban framework is expanding.

Looking at the development of some cities in our province, while the population is increasing and the speed of old city reconstruction is accelerating, the urban framework of many cities is expanding. Zhengzhou is developing Zhengdong New District, which has begun to take shape. At the same time, we will develop the western area and prepare to get out of the "depression". The next step will be to realize the integration of Zhengzhou and Bian. Kaifeng is developing the West District; Xuchang develops the East Zone; Xinyang is developing Yangshan area and Hudong area; Nanyang is also developing Henan area ... and our city is developing Luonan. In the past two years, more than 100 high-rise buildings will be built along the Luohe River in the new area. Sun Shanwu also envisaged the development of Golden Dream and Xiaolangdi. ...

Development is the last word! How to develop? Attracting investment, attracting investment, building houses, revitalizing the economy ... house prices naturally rise. I remember that in 2002, the average price of a building near Zhengzhou 107 National Road was 1460 yuan. With the development of Zhengdong New District, the average price has now risen to more than 3,000 yuan! And our city is not like this! The high-priced house in Luonan is conclusive evidence! !

Reason 6: Development enterprises and planners join hands in hype.

Everyone in the industry knows that due to the changes in the real estate market and the increasingly fierce market competition, the role of real estate planners is becoming more and more important. A good planner has the functions of doctor, legal adviser, financial expert, director and captain. They can combine the four marketing tools of real estate (product strategy, price combination, advertising strategy and sales execution) to solve the obstacles in actual work and the resulting work details and personnel organization structure under the existing conditions, so as to achieve the best real estate sales in a short time. For example, Zhengzhou Jianye City Garden, Xie Ying Garden, Dihu Garden, Golden Harbor, 2 1 Century Community, Xinyuan Masters, First Avenue, Beautiful Scenery Tiancheng, Yaxing Shi Sheng Home, Luoyang Xinglong Garden, Forest Peninsula, Yahweh Jincheng, International Trade Center, Sino-Thai Century Flower City, Xinduhui, Lv Xian Supermarket, King's Landing Plaza and many other real estate projects have been successfully operated, and development enterprises and planners have jointly planned speculation.

Therefore, a good planning case can not only create maximum value for developing enterprises, but also make the real estate market develop in a virtuous circle.

At the same time, there are not a few developers and planners who drive up housing prices. In order to seek more benefits, some development enterprises join hands with planners, clamoring for "reduced land supply", overemphasizing flashy community landscape and appreciation prospects, and hoarding housing, which artificially caused market tension, disturbed people's rational understanding of housing prices, and led to repeated increases in housing prices. ...

According to my personal point of view, the main trigger for the rise of housing prices in our city lies in the emergence of several foreign development enterprises and their planners in 2004. In 2004, they stole the limelight in the real estate market in our city, eclipsing the local development enterprises in our city. The "Centennial Home" in April, the "Leather World" in June, the "Qianjiang Trade City" in September, and the storm of Shunchi and Jianye in the second half of the year stirred up the whole Luoyang property market. Their planners used various marketing planning methods to shine brilliantly on the project. Especially in the second half of the year, with the promotion of Shunchi and Jianye, all kinds of overwhelming real estate advertisements can be seen everywhere, which set off the advertising great leap forward climax in Luoyang real estate history. We have to admit that the successful planning and operation of Sunco's "First Street" and Jianye's "Forest Peninsula" projects have made immeasurable contributions to our city, but at the same time, we can also see that it is precisely because they are taking the "high-end route" that the real estate prices in our city have risen. The average price of commercial housing in our city rose rapidly from 1770 yuan/square meter in 2003 to 1938 yuan/square meter in 2005. Then, with the upsurge of new district development, local and foreign development enterprises followed suit, joined hands with planners and took the high-end route, which made the average house price in our city rise rapidly to more than 2,300 yuan/square meter in 2005 and still rising. ...

Reason seven: consumers' awareness of buying houses and investing is constantly increasing.

In recent years, the interest rate of bank deposits is low, the stock market is depressed, and the bond market is small ... In this case, consumers begin to change their investment channels, especially the exaggeration of real estate personnel on the preservation and appreciation of houses, which makes a large number of consumers more and more aware of buying houses and think that real estate is a promising investment channel, thus making a large amount of funds flood into the real estate market and turn it into real estate development funds, becoming the most important source of funds for enterprises. Housing prices in some cities have risen too fast and social expectations are high. The rapid expansion of local investment demand has intensified speculation. Among them, "Wenzhou real estate speculators" and "Shanxi real estate speculators" gathered tens of billions of funds to speculate on faster housing, which further aggravated the excessive rise in housing prices. Although the government's new real estate policy has led to their decline, as ordinary consumers, no one wants the price of the house they spent a lot of money on to decrease, so there are still consumers who want to buy a house and expect their house to appreciate. ...

Reason 8: The rise of composite real estate has boosted housing prices.

The so-called composite property is a property composed of two or more property forms, such as shops, houses, office buildings, property-style hotels and apartments. In recent years, there are more and more complex buildings. At present, the complex buildings in our city include: Maple Leaf International Plaza, Yahweh Jincheng, Shentai New Century Plaza, Wangcheng Yufu, Wanguo Ginza, Shifu Mansion, Xinduhui, Fuya Oriental, Champs Elysé es Sunshine, Meicheng, Xinjie Jinyuan Mansion, Jiudu Xintiandi, King's Landing Plaza and residence Meiju.

Some people say that the compound can be regarded as a concentrated "city" to a certain extent, from which we can imagine its complete functions and convenient life. But the comprehensive price is much higher than that of ordinary real estate. For example, the prosperity of Pearl River Commercial Street has increased the gold content of Pearl River Road; The successful planning and operation of King's Landing Plaza has heated up the yarn mill road plate and doubled the comprehensive price. Carrefour entered Xinduhui to promote the gold content of its plate; Sunco's "First Street" famous street, although the average price exceeds 5,000 yuan/m 2, its sales volume is also considerable; There are Yahweh Jincheng, Juye Home, Wangcheng Royal Bow ... I don't need to elaborate here. Therefore, the rise of housing prices is also closely related to the rise of composite real estate.

Reason 9: National policy regulation has not solved the fundamental problem.

Last year, the state adjusted some new real estate policies one after another, and issued "Opinions on Doing a Good Job in Stabilizing Housing Prices", aiming at macro-control of the real estate market from policy and system innovation to curb the excessive rise of housing prices.

It is undeniable that the introduction of these new policies has dealt a strong blow to some real estate speculators, and has played a certain role in curbing the excessive rise in housing prices and regulating the real estate market. However, these new policies, including the recently promulgated "National Six Articles", may not be able to solve the root causes of rising housing prices.

According to the characteristics of real estate itself (long-term use, attached income, duality of capital and consumer goods, mutual influence of real estate itself and the influence of surrounding community environment), most real estate speculators are choosing medium and long-term investment, and some ordinary people are taking advantage of idle funds to participate in medium and long-term housing investment.

The most direct point is that the development cost is getting higher and higher, and the profit is becoming more and more transparent. This problem has not been fundamentally solved. Why don't house prices go up?

Reason 10: Insufficient motivation for falling house prices.

There are three main activities in the real estate market: first, government departments, including the central government and local governments; Second, enterprises, mainly real estate enterprises and financial institutions, including upstream enterprises that provide raw materials for real estate enterprises; The third is property buyers, mainly residents. Judging from the behavioral motives of these three aspects, the motivation for the decline of real estate prices is obviously insufficient.

The government is the supervisor of the real estate market and is directly responsible for the stable development of the real estate market; In China, the government, especially the local government, is also a participant and profit distributor in the real estate market. Different interests lead to slightly different behavior orientations, but in any case, under the current situation, they do not want and will not let house prices fall. For local governments, the high dependence of local governments on land revenue determines that they don't want a sharp drop in house prices. Local governments are the number one beneficiaries of the real estate market. The greater the real estate expansion, the greater the income of local governments. This is first manifested in land revenue. Secondly, the interests of local governments are also reflected in the real estate transaction process. Most of the transaction fees directly or indirectly become the funds of local governments. Therefore, the rise of real estate prices can not only improve the data of local GDP, but also enable local governments to obtain more land transfer fees, engage in more urban construction and increase the promotion opportunities of local officials. At the same time, local governments have not paid any economic costs. The decrease of land, the bad debts of banks and the exhaustion of resources have almost nothing to do with local governments and are not the ultimate responsibility. It is this extreme asymmetry of costs and benefits that makes local governments become the driving force for the rapid development of China's real estate industry.

The price impact of banks on the real estate industry is basically neutral, because the tightening of bank loans to developers reduces the supply of the real estate market, while the tightening of mortgage users reduces the demand of the real estate market. From the interest of banks, the ups and downs of real estate market prices are not in line with the interests of the banking industry. However, at present, most bank credit funds have been injected into the real estate market, which has implied huge financial risks. Falling house prices will not only directly affect the recovery of bank credit funds, but also lead to the credit crisis of the entire financial system.

Developers are a group that closely follows the rhythm of local governments, and they also have good expectations for the price trend of the real estate market, but they have no leading ability. But in any case, as a supplier of commercial housing market, real estate developers certainly don't want the price to fall, and they will choose corresponding countermeasures in the game with the government to maximize their own interests. On the other hand, in the context of macro-control, if real estate developers really have huge profits, then real estate prices have room to fall at least in theory; On the other hand, if the profit margin of real estate developers is not large, then the result of falling house prices is that real estate developers stop developing or even go bankrupt, but low-priced houses still cannot be built.

As the ultimate consumers of housing, residents are in a dilemma about the fluctuation of housing prices. For residents who haven't bought a house, they definitely hope that the house price will come down to meet their housing needs; However, for most families who already own real estate, the sharp drop in house prices is of course not good for them, because the sharp drop in house prices will shrink their assets. Therefore, most consumers will choose real estate with great potential for preservation and appreciation.

As can be seen from the above analysis, in the main body of the whole real estate market, most of them don't want house prices to fall.