First, the factors that directly affect the income of power stations.
Power station income = enterprise electricity fee+Internet electricity fee+kWh subsidy income.
Among them, enterprise electricity fee = power generation × spontaneous self-use ratio × enterprise electricity price
On-grid tariff = power generation × proportion of surplus electricity on-grid tariff × on-grid tariff
Power subsidy income = power generation × power subsidy.
According to the above formula, the power generation and electricity price level of the power station (electricity subsidies are unified throughout the country, while enterprise electricity prices and on-grid electricity prices vary from region to region, which are both called electricity price levels here) and the proportion of spontaneous self-use are the three most important factors affecting the revenue of the power station.
1, power generation of the power station
The power generation of power station is related to solar radiation, conversion efficiency of photovoltaic modules and annual power generation attenuation rate of photovoltaic modules. Irradiance is an important natural factor to judge whether a region is suitable for investing in photovoltaic power plants. The first-class resource areas in China are rich in solar energy resources, and the power generation of power plants is much higher than that of the third-class resource areas under the same conditions. In addition, the conversion efficiency of modules is also an important factor affecting the power generation of power stations. The conversion efficiency of monocrystalline silicon module is higher than that of polycrystalline silicon module, but the cost of monocrystalline silicon module is higher. At present, the distributed photovoltaic power generation market is still dominated by polysilicon modules.
Generally speaking, under the condition that the electricity price level is the same as the spontaneous self-use ratio of the power station, the higher the unit power generation, the greater the income of the power station.
2. Electricity price level
At present, most provinces and cities implement the ratio of peak-valley electricity price to peak-valley power generation time, and the on-grid electricity price is calculated according to the benchmark on-grid electricity price of local coal-fired units. The higher the electricity price, the greater the profit of the power station under the same unit power generation and spontaneous self-use ratio.
3. The proportion of spontaneous use
The proportion of spontaneous self-use is related to the annual electricity consumption, annual power generation, daily working hours, annual holiday days and whether the factory equipment is under static load. The higher the proportion of spontaneous self-use (that is, the higher the photovoltaic power consumption used by enterprises), the higher the income of power stations.
Generally speaking, the power generation level and electricity price are important factors to determine the project development area, and the support of local governments and the level of economic development are also very important reference indicators. After determining the project development area, it is important to evaluate the expected spontaneous self-use rate of a single project and calculate the internal rate of return of the project according to the power generation and electricity price.
Second, the risk control process
When evaluating a single project, it is necessary to strictly control each stage and process, especially the pre-project evaluation before signing the contract energy management and energy-saving service agreement, which mainly evaluates the feasibility of the project from the technical, financial and legal perspectives. At the same time, the control of project implementation and operation stage is also very important, which is directly related to the actual profitability of the whole project. To sum up, a single project needs to be evaluated and controlled in the following stages:
(1) Pre-assessment
1. Pre-development: According to the industry conditions, roof conditions, electricity consumption, business operation, credit, housing and land property rights of a single project, preliminarily evaluate whether it is necessary to further develop the project.
2. Technical evaluation: judge the feasibility of the project from the technical aspects of roof structure and load, electrical structure and load, evaluate and calculate the basic data of a single project, such as installed capacity, unit power generation and spontaneous self-use ratio, and form a preliminary technical scheme to provide a basis for financial evaluation.
3. Financial evaluation: Through the preliminary investment benefit analysis of the project, the financial status of the project, such as profitability and solvency, is investigated to judge whether the project has investment value. General project internal rate of return is not less than 9%. The main economic indicators of financial evaluation are as follows:
(1) installed capacity: the installed capacity of a power station is first determined by the available area of the roof and the capacity of the transformer. However, the greater the proportion of spontaneous self-use of power stations, the higher the income, so the electricity consumption of enterprises also limits the installed capacity. Under the condition of ensuring the basic income, the installed capacity of the power station should be determined in combination with the available roof area, transformer capacity and enterprise electricity consumption. Generally, the technical department needs to carry out preliminary design and component layout, and at the same time, fully consider the problems such as building shadow, and comprehensively evaluate the estimated installation capacity of the project.
(2) First-year power generation: The annual power generation of the power station decreases year by year according to a certain proportion, and the annual power generation can only be calculated by measuring the first-year power generation. In addition to solar radiation and module conversion efficiency, roof type, power station orientation and power station closing time will also affect power generation. Photovoltaic power stations convert light energy into electric energy. The more light the power station receives, the higher the power generation efficiency. Therefore, it is very important to design the orientation and inclination scientifically. As far as the roof type is concerned, the cement roof power station can be installed at the best angle, and its power generation is slightly higher than that of the color steel tile roof power station.
(3) Spontaneous self-use ratio: Its importance has been described above.
(4) Electricity price and discount: Different types of electricity have different electricity prices. Industrial electricity consumption is large, and its roof condition is good, but there is time-of-use electricity price, so the average price is low; The roof area of general industrial electricity and commercial electricity is small, but there is no time electricity price, so the electricity price is relatively high.
(5) Unit construction cost: In addition to the main equipment and engineering costs of the power station, the individual needs of different enterprises will also increase the construction cost of the power station, and ultimately affect the rate of return. In particular, the distributed roof power station is limited by the roof conditions of buildings, which has certain requirements for the structure and bearing capacity of buildings. Some substandard roofs need to be improved by painting and replacing tiles, but at the same time, the construction cost of the power station will increase accordingly. Therefore, for each single project, technical departments and commercial departments need to comprehensively evaluate the unit construction cost of the project.
4. Contract negotiation and review
(1) Contract Energy Management Energy Saving Service Agreement, namely EMC Contract.
EMC contract is the most important contract for photovoltaic power plant investment and construction, and it is the legal basis for power plant investment and construction. The parties to the contract are investors and power users. The purpose of signing the EMC contract is to build photovoltaic power plants for investors and sell them to enterprises, which extends the rights, obligations and risk distribution of both parties to the contract. Contract negotiation is to negotiate the rights, obligations and risks of both parties. Several important concerns of enterprises in contract negotiation are contract term, electricity price discount, roof maintenance responsibility, power quality problems, power station relocation and other liabilities for breach of contract, such as bankruptcy of enterprises, etc. The review of the contract is mainly to analyze and judge its legitimacy and rationality and make adjustments, especially the above concerns.
5. Project review
The above evaluation and judgment are carried out independently by each department. Before signing the EMC contract, it is necessary to hold a systematic project review meeting, requiring the contract initiating department, technical department, financial department, project management department and other relevant departments to participate in the review.
The purpose of the contract review meeting is to understand the feasibility of a single project in technology, engineering construction and later operation, the return on investment of the project, the legitimacy and rationality of legal risk control, etc. At the same time, it is also an important purpose of the contract review meeting to connect with other relevant departments, evaluate the rights and obligations of EMC contracts, and coordinate if there are special requirements, so as to fulfill the contractual obligations more clearly and realize the contractual rights. For example, because the photovoltaic power plant project is entrusted to a third party for construction, there may be special construction requirements in the EMC contract. If the organizer of EPC contract is not aware of this special requirement and fails to deal with this requirement in EPC contract, investors may be held accountable for violating EMC contract.
(II) Project implementation and construction
The photovoltaic power station project mainly determines the component supplier and EPC party (i.e. the project builder) through bidding, in which the component procurement cost and the project construction cost each account for about half of the total investment of the power station, so the performance of the component procurement contract and the project construction contract is very important.
(1) component purchase contract: component delivery obligation is generally after the project starts, and component quality is the most noteworthy performance project. First of all, the quality standards and responsibilities of components need to be clear; Secondly, product supervision, factory test, inspection and acceptance test should be carried out in strict accordance with standards and regulations.
(2) Construction project contract, that is, EPC contract: Please refer to the relevant provisions of the Contract Law for the basic rights and obligations of construction project contracts, and will not repeat them here. In the process of photovoltaic power station project construction, the common problem is that the construction party does not operate according to the regulations and tramples on the components at will. In order to reduce unnecessary litigation, supervision should be strengthened in the construction process, and the strict responsibility of EPC party should be stipulated in the contract.
Before the completion of photovoltaic power station, there may be many reasons for the damage of components, but how to bear the responsibility is more difficult to deal with. If it is settled through negotiation and litigation afterwards, it will seriously delay the construction period and cause losses. Therefore, regarding the risk commitment of component quality problems, investors can negotiate with EPC and component suppliers to determine a time node as the risk transfer time point. Risks such as damage to the subject matter of general sales contracts are transferred at the time of delivery, except for quality problems. It can be agreed here (for discussion only) that all risks shall be borne by the component supplier before delivery and by the EPC party after delivery. After the occurrence of risk events, the EPC party must pay in advance or take responsibility by other means to minimize the losses. If it is later found that all or part of the risk is caused by the component supplier, EPC can recover from the supplier.
(III) Operation and maintenance of the project
Whether the operation and maintenance of the project is done well directly affects the service life and income of the power station. The evaluation of operation and maintenance work is mainly to prevent the third party from damaging the power generation equipment and to repair it in time after the fault occurs.
The photovoltaic power station is installed on the roof of the user. Within the control of users, power station equipment is usually damaged or broken, and users can find it faster than investors and feed it back to investors in time. Therefore, in the process of operation and maintenance, attention should be paid to establishing a stable and friendly cooperative relationship with power users, which is also an important guarantee for the long-term stable operation of the power station.
Third, common investment risks.
Above, we have made a detailed analysis and evaluation of the whole project, including technical evaluation, financial evaluation and legal review, but these are all evaluations of normal matters of the power station in an ideal state. The operation period of photovoltaic power station is as long as 20 years, during which there are many controllable and uncontrollable risks, which require investors to conduct a comprehensive evaluation and find out the risk response measures to minimize the investment risk of power station. The following will analyze the most important risk points of power station investment.
risk factor
1. The owner of the house is different from the user of electricity.
In practice, there are often inconsistencies between power users and property owners, and EMC contracts can't counter the ownership of property owners. Therefore, the investor must obtain the consent of the property owner before he can legally use the roof of the factory building and issue the ownership certificate of the construction site, thus eliminating the risk of the investor infringing the rights and interests of the third party. For detailed analysis, please refer to my other topic "Inconsistency between Power Users and Property Owners in Distributed Photovoltaic Power Generation Projects and Solutions".
2. Equipment quality problems
Photovoltaic module is the most important equipment of photovoltaic power station, and it is usually tendered separately. Components are prone to problems such as cracks and lightning wires, but there are many reasons that may cause the above problems, so the quality of equipment, especially components, is very worthy of attention. The risk of component quality problems is mainly after delivery. For investors, although the risk will not be transferred, the quality problems found after delivery will still adversely affect investors. Therefore, the warranty period, the scope of quality problems and the relief methods after quality problems are strictly stipulated in the parts purchase contract, so as to safeguard their rights and interests afterwards.
3, engineering quality problems
During the construction of photovoltaic power station, it is easy to cause equipment damage due to improper operation, such as during unloading, installation and storage, and components may be damaged due to improper operation. In addition to strengthening supervision, the responsibilities of the construction party should also be strictly stipulated in the EPC contract.
There is a common but important situation that the damage of components may be caused by quality problems and improper operation. In this case, it is difficult to distinguish the respective responsibilities of both parties, which is not conducive to the protection of investors' rights and interests. It is necessary to stipulate the rights and responsibilities of both parties in advance (see the second paragraph of the construction project contract above for details). (The damage of parts may be a quality problem or improper operation, which belongs to the same tort stipulated in the Tort Liability Law. Although it can be remedied through legal channels, this paper mainly discusses the investment evaluation of power stations, aiming at minimizing all kinds of risks and costs before the implementation of the project through project evaluation, which is not repeated here. )
4. Extension of power station construction period
In the investment and construction of photovoltaic power plants, the construction period of power plants is related to the capitalization of investment and the payback period of investment. The shorter the construction period of a power plant, the sooner the benefits and capital return of the power plant can be obtained. However, in actual construction, the problem of long construction period often occurs. The reasons are as follows: firstly, the project construction plan and schedule control are not good, which leads to the serious problem of disconnection between equipment supply and construction; Second, individual projects failed to reach an agreement with the owners on roof maintenance, which greatly affected the normal construction progress of the project. Therefore, before the project starts, we must first do a good job in technical investigation of the project and reach an agreement with the owner of the roof on maintenance matters in advance. Secondly, it is necessary to formulate a detailed construction plan and implement it in strict accordance with the plan.
5. The enterprise is in arrears with the electricity bill.
Before charging the electricity fee for distributed photovoltaic power generation projects, it is necessary to determine the start-up time and reading of the metering device of the electric meter. However, it is difficult for investors to reach an agreement with electricity users on the starting time and reading of electricity charges, because this is directly related to the interests of both parties to the EMC contract. Because photovoltaic power plants need to be connected to the grid, it involves the power supply department. At this time, with the help of its credibility, it is agreed in the EMC contract to take the starting time and reading of the power supply department as a reference.
In addition, after the power station enters the stable operation period, power users may refuse to pay or default on electricity charges due to the deterioration of operating conditions or conflicts with investors. Therefore, before the implementation of the project, we must fully understand the user's financial situation and credit, comprehensively evaluate the possibility of defaulting on electricity charges, and clearly stipulate the liability for breach of contract in the EMC contract.
6. The power station facilities are damaged.
There are many reasons for the destruction of power station facilities (here we mainly discuss the destruction of power station facilities in the operation stage of the project, and the destruction in the construction stage of the project has been discussed in the previous chapter on equipment quality and engineering quality), such as force majeure, accidents, man-made destruction, etc. Losses can be large or small, from the maintenance of power generation equipment to the damage of power stations. If the roof attached to the power station is damaged by the above-mentioned force majeure, accidents and other factors beyond human control, it will also suffer fatal injuries. Usually this situation is not the user's fault, and the user himself has suffered great losses. At this time, it is not practical to ask users to take responsibility, so it is very important to buy property insurance for power stations. In the case of man-made damage, the damage party can be required to bear corresponding responsibilities according to the fault liability, and the power users should also fulfill the obligation to inform and reduce losses.
7. The electricity consumption is lower than expected.
The low proportion of spontaneous self-use means that the electricity consumption is lower than expected. Before the implementation of the project, investors need to know the industry development prospects and their own operating conditions of power users. If the minimum power consumption can be agreed in the EMC contract, this risk can effectively avoid the loss of investors. However, in general, investors are still at a disadvantage in EMC contracts, and electricity users generally do not accept the minimum electricity consumption. Therefore, investors must accurately evaluate the proportion of spontaneous self-use of a single project before the implementation of the project, and control the risk within the controllable range.
8. Power generation is lower than expected.
The new building blocks sunlight, the system conversion efficiency decreases, the components are damaged, and the solar radiation decreases, which will lead to the power generation of the power station being lower than expected. First, buy power generation insurance; Secondly, the system efficiency can be stipulated in the component purchase contract, and the supplier can guarantee the system efficiency; Thirdly, it is necessary to go to the industrial park and other institutions to understand the development plan of the park and predict the development around the project site during the contract period. The technical department will judge its impact on the power generation of the power station, so as to calculate the annual power generation and power station income more accurately.
9, housing property rights change
Bankruptcy of roof owners, building transfer and state expropriation may all lead to changes in building property rights. First of all, investors need to know the operating conditions of power users, evaluate the risks of bankruptcy and transfer of buildings during the contract period, and find out whether there is land acquisition planning during the contract period through local governments and other means; Secondly, the power user is required to reach an agreement with the new property owner in the case of the change of housing property rights, and the new property owner will continue to perform the contract instead of the power user, that is, the general transfer of creditor's rights and debts.
10, building relocation
Building relocation may occur due to the needs of power users' production development and national expropriation and requisition. Therefore, investors need to understand the development plan of power users, evaluate the possibility of their relocation within the contract period, and stipulate in the EMC contract that in the case of building relocation, photovoltaic power stations will provide investors with new building roofs with the same conditions with the relocation of buildings or power users.
(2) Solutions
From the analysis of the causes of the above risk factors and their solutions, there are three main steps to prevent and control the above risks. First, fully understand the causes of various risks, quantify them as risk costs, and reflect them in the financial evaluation model, and comprehensively evaluate the investment income and various factors of a single project. The second is to stipulate the relief methods after various risks appear in the corresponding contracts. Third, actively guard against the above risks in the process of project implementation. The first two steps must be completed before the implementation of the project, so as to control the above risks within the acceptable range of investors and improve their investment confidence.
Four. conclusion
In recent years, the investment in distributed photovoltaic power plants has been increasingly supported by the state and local governments, and with the good demonstration effect of Jiangsu, Shandong, Zhejiang and other photovoltaic provinces, more and more funds have entered the distributed photovoltaic power generation investment market. For example, Evergrande's strong entry into the photovoltaic industry has once again confirmed the great potential of the photovoltaic power generation industry. However, the photovoltaic power generation industry is still a new industry in China, and all parties are in the exploration stage, and the future is still full of many uncertainties. In order to maximize the benefit of power station, the investment evaluation of power station must be strict.