In 2008, the Middle East was still an "eventful autumn", which was still concerned by the world, but the smell of gunpowder was weakened. Moreover, because the Beijing Olympic Games, the Russia-Georgia conflict and the American financial crisis have attracted the world's main attention, the hot spots in the Middle East are not as radiant as in previous years. Generally speaking, the situation in the Middle East was relatively stable in 2008, and the authority of the United States in the Middle East declined. Looking ahead, the three hot spots are full of variables.

The overall situation is relatively stable.

1. The security situation in Iraq has improved slightly. According to figures released by the US military and Iraqi officials, the number of violent attacks in Iraq has decreased from more than 200 per week/kloc-0 in the same period last year to more than 200 at present, down 80% year-on-year. In June this year, the number of civilian and American deaths in 65438+ 10 also decreased to 238 and 13 respectively, which was the lowest level in a single month since the Iraq war in 2003.

Western analysts believe that there are other reasons for the decrease in violence in Iraq, except that the US troop increase has shown some effects. First, al-Qaeda is becoming increasingly unpopular among the Iraqi people. In the past two years, some Sunni organizations in Iraq have not only stopped supporting Al Qaeda, but even joined the US military's attack on them. Secondly, the transfer of some Al Qaeda forces from Iraq to Afghanistan has greatly reduced the probability of violence in Iraq. Third, the actions of the US military are relatively concentrated and reduced, and the stationing is also zero, which naturally reduces the risk of being attacked. Fourth, Iraq's main anti-American armed forces, the Mahdi Army, unilaterally ceased fire. Fifth, the number of Iraqi defense forces has increased and their combat effectiveness has increased.

However, the security situation in Iraq has not fundamentally improved, and vicious explosions still occur from time to time in the capital Baghdad and the northern oil town of Kirkuk. As the top commander of the US military in Iraq said, the security situation in Iraq is still "fragile" and "reversible".

Second, the resumption of Palestinian-Israeli peace talks has weakened the intensity of Palestinian-Israeli confrontation to some extent. Although the goal set by the Annapolis Middle East Peace Conference has not been achieved, the Palestinian-Israeli peace talks, which have been shelved for eight years, have finally been restarted and maintained the momentum of continuation.

In fact, it is Bush's wishful thinking to achieve a breakthrough in peace talks and sign a comprehensive peace agreement within one year. Border demarcation, the status of Jerusalem, the return of Palestinian refugees, the future of Jewish settlements and the distribution of water resources are all insurmountable obstacles to the current Palestinian-Israeli peace talks. However, the real reason why Americans are pessimistic about the goal of achieving Palestinian-Israeli peace is the sudden change of Israeli-Palestinian politics. In particular, the forced resignation of former Israeli Prime Minister Olmert, the failure of the new Kadima Party chairman Livni and Israel's early general election have basically brought the resumed Palestinian-Israeli peace talks to a standstill, at least until the caretaker cabinet is elected in February next year, and there is no authority to make major decisions on the Palestinian-Israeli issue. As US Secretary of State condoleezza rice said, the current Israeli political situation "limits the government's ability to reach an agreement".

The current political situation in Palestine is also an important factor hindering the conclusion of the Palestinian-Israeli peace agreement. Due to the split situation formed in June last year, President Abbas of the National Authority has actually become the "president" of half the Palestinians. Recently, the Central Committee of the PLO elected Abbas as Palestinian President, which was categorically rejected by Palestinian radical organizations such as Hamas. Hamas's restraint has greatly hindered the peace talks in Abbas and will continue to do so. In addition, Hamas was excluded from the Palestinian-Israeli peace process, which greatly weakened the authority of the outcome of the peace talks. As an Arab expert on the Middle East said, even if Abbas reached an agreement with the Israelis, it would be meaningless because it could not be implemented.

3. Israel and Hamas reached a ceasefire agreement. Under Egyptian mediation, Israeli and Hamas and other Palestinian armed factions in Gaza reached a six-month ceasefire agreement on June 19 this year. Although the ceasefire situation is fragile, the two sides have basically abided by their respective commitments in the first four months, and the number of rockets fired by Palestinian armed factions and "targeted killings" by the Israeli army has obviously decreased. This has played a certain role in easing the tension in Gaza.

However, since 165438+ 10, the ceasefire agreement has been in jeopardy. From 4th to 5th, the Israeli army launched a military operation against Gaza, killing 1 1 Palestinian militants. Palestinian militants also fired more than 60 rockets at Israel. Since then, the situation in Gaza has become tense, with the closure of the goods transport corridor in Gaza. 165438+1On October 23rd, Palestinian armed factions in Gaza held a meeting and agreed to continue to abide by the ceasefire agreement in exchange for the opening of the cargo port in Gaza. However, only five days later, Hamas's armed faction "Kasang Brigade" fired mortar shells at an Israeli military base in southern Israel, injuring eight Israeli soldiers. After the incident, Israeli Deputy Defense Minister Vilnay declared that the Israeli army was "close" to take large-scale military action in Gaza. As expected, the situation in Gaza is tense and loose.

The Iranian nuclear issue was a false alarm, but it did not lead to military conflict. In May and June this year, Israel, which regarded Iran's nuclear program as a fatal threat, insisted on a surgical strike against Iran's nuclear facilities and prepared for war. Bush repeatedly threatened that "all options are on the table". Israeli media have also been speculating that it is inevitable for the United States and Israel to use force against Iran. However, Bush never agreed to Israel's demand of using force, which delayed Israel's success. The once tense Iranian nuclear situation surprised the whole world. On the contrary, the relationship between the United States and Iran has undergone dramatic changes this year: US Assistant Secretary of State Burns attended the Iran-Europe talks on the Iranian nuclear issue with Iranian representatives in Geneva; The American Basketball Association invited the Iranian national basketball team to the United States to prepare for the Beijing Olympic Games; The American government announced that it would set up an office in Tehran.

Since June 5438+February 2006, the Security Council has made three consecutive resolutions on the Iranian nuclear issue, increasing the pressure on Iran and trying to force it to give up its nuclear program. However, Iran has never given up uranium enrichment. Under the impetus of the United States, the six countries on the Iranian nuclear issue put forward a plan for resuming talks in May this year, giving Iran both hard and soft. Just as Iran didn't reply for a long time, the US-Europe summit adopted new sanctions against Iran on June 9. However, Iran has not been moved by all this. 1 13 10 13, the representatives of the six countries on the Iranian nuclear issue met again in Paris to discuss the implementation of new sanctions against Iran, but again it was fruitless. Western countries advocate increasing sanctions, while China and Russia oppose it.

5. The indirect negotiations between Syria and Israel initiated by Turkey have made some progress, paving the way for direct talks in the future.

6. Syria and Lebanon formally established diplomatic relations. Syria and Lebanon put aside their grievances for more than 60 years, and formally established diplomatic relations at ambassadorial level in June 65438+1October 65438+April this year, achieving a win-win choice.

Seven, Turkey's attack on PKK did not lead to the border conflict between Turkey and Iraq, nor did it lead to the resurgence of Kurdistan's independence.

American authority has declined.

With the shake of American global hegemony, the Bush administration's authority in the Middle East has also declined. It is mainly manifested in two aspects: first, the agreement on US troops stationed in Iraq is difficult to produce, and second, the "timetable" set by Bush to sign the Palestinian-Israeli peace agreement within this year has failed.

After more than eight months of bargaining, the United States and Iraq finally finalized the agreement on the US military presence in Iraq, which was reluctantly passed by the Iraqi National Assembly on June 27, 165438, thus saving Bush from the embarrassing situation of ending the UN mandate and illegally stationing US troops in Iraq. In June 5438+October 2003 10, under the impetus of the United States, the Security Council adopted resolution 15 1 1, authorizing the establishment of a multinational force in Iraq headed by the United States. The Bush administration is eager to sign a bilateral agreement with Iraq before the end of June 5438+February 3 1 UN mandate, so as to legalize the continued US military presence in Iraq. As an "occupier" of Iraq, it should not be too difficult for the United States to continue to station troops in Iraq. Moreover, the security situation in Iraq has not fundamentally improved, and the US military is still needed for the time being. However, in order to sign this agreement, the negotiations between the United States and Iraq, which were originally scheduled to start in early March and end at the end of July, were postponed to 1 1. In addition, although the agreement on the three-year US military presence has been signed and approved by the Iraqi parliament, the parliament has decided to hold a referendum on the agreement in July next year. In the eyes of Americans, a very simple bilateral agreement has gone through so many troubles that the Bush administration has to make some concessions on major issues such as the timetable for withdrawing troops, the extraterritorial jurisdiction of Americans and the authority of the US military to take unilateral military action. In particular, the holding of a referendum on the agreement was once resolutely opposed by Bush, because it was obviously ill-fated for the reluctantly reached US-Iraq agreement. All this undoubtedly made the United States, which had reacted so quickly, lose face in front of the whole world.

The failure to sign the Palestinian-Israeli peace agreement as scheduled is another shame of the Bush administration. At the Annapolis International Conference on the Middle East hosted by Bush in June 5438+065438+ 10, 2007, Israeli and Palestinian leaders promised to restart the Palestinian-Israeli peace talks that have been put on hold for many years and strive to reach a comprehensive peace agreement before the end of 2008. However, one year is about to pass, and the Palestinian-Israeli peace talks have so far failed to make substantial progress. During her recent visit to Israel, Rice reluctantly stated that it was "impossible" to reach an Israeli-Palestinian peace agreement before the end of this year. This is the first time that an American leader who has always been complacent about resuming the Palestinian-Israeli peace talks has expressed pessimism about the prospects of the peace talks. At the end of last month, when Bush and Olmert spoke in Washington after their last formal meeting before leaving office, neither of them mentioned the topic of signing the Palestinian-Israeli peace agreement this year. Bush's "timetable" can no longer be realized.

The three hot spots are full of variables.

Looking forward to 2009, with the change of American government, the development trends of the three hot spots in the Middle East are full of variables. First of all, the Iraq issue will focus on the withdrawal of the United States and the changes in the security situation. President-elect Obama will certainly make some progress on the issue of withdrawing troops after taking over the mess in Iraq from Bush, but the promise of 16 months to completely withdraw troops cannot be fully fulfilled. It has been a dream of the United States for many years for the US military to get its hands on the Middle East. It is an established policy of the United States to station troops in Iraq for a long time. The more than 4,200 lives and more than 600 billion dollars that the United States has paid for the Iraq war so far will not be wasted. Although the U.S. agreement on stationing troops in Iraq can guarantee the legitimacy of the U.S. troops in the next three years, with the continued stationing and partial withdrawal of the U.S. troops, the local elections in Iraq and the referendum on the U.S.-Iraq agreement held at the beginning of the year, the activities of Al Qaeda and anti-government forces will rise, and the power and interests struggle between ethnic groups and sects will be further intensified, and the overall security situation in Iraq may be reversed in a short time. There is a great possibility that the US-Iran agreement will be rejected by referendum, and new variables will appear in the US-Iran relationship.

Secondly, the Palestinian-Israeli peace talks may continue, but they cannot achieve results in the short term. Whether the peace talks can make progress in the new year depends on the changes in Israeli-Palestinian politics. On the one hand, if Israel's relatively moderate Kadima Party or Labour Party wins the cabinet in the February general election, it will be conducive to peace talks; However, if Netanyahu makes a comeback, the Palestinian-Israeli peace talks may encounter new troubles and may even be shelved again. On the other hand, if the Palestinian internal front achieves national reconciliation under the mediation of Egypt and other Arab countries, it will be conducive to peace talks; Otherwise, it is difficult to make a breakthrough in the peace talks. More and more analysts believe that Hamas cannot be excluded from the Palestinian-Israeli peace process. The United States still plays an irreplaceable role as a mediator in the Palestinian-Israeli peace process. However, it is impossible for any American president to change his position of favoring Israel, and it is impossible for Obama to "balance a bowl of water." Therefore, we should not expect too much from Obama in solving the Palestinian-Israeli issue.

Third, the Iranian nuclear issue will become one of Obama's biggest headaches. Obama advocates a "carrot and stick" policy toward Iran, but he also made it clear that "Iran's nuclear support is unacceptable". Iran has repeatedly claimed that it will not give up its nuclear program. Therefore, the international game centered on the United States and Iraq will continue, and it is unlikely that the Iranian nuclear issue will be resolved peacefully or militarily in the short term. However, with the change of president, the relationship between the United States and Iran may change further. Obama's idea of direct contact with Iranian leaders, and Iran's reformist Khatami or moderate Rafsanjani's return to power in next year's general election are all positive factors that US-Iran relations can expect.

Analysis of Economic Situation in 2008

First of all, the first aspect, then a preliminary analysis of the international economic situation, and then a basic summary of the point of view, by the US subprime mortgage crisis, the depreciation of the dollar, international oil prices and food prices and other major factors, in 2008, world economic growth will drop significantly, world inflation will rise significantly, and world trade rate will drop significantly. Mainly reflect the three main indicators of the world economy to summarize the situation of the world economy in 2008. So in this chart, we can all see that relevant national organizations and forecasting institutions have predicted the world economic growth rate, so the latest forecast result is like this. According to the International Monetary Fund, the world economy grew by 2.6% in 2008, which was 1. 1 percentage point lower than that in 2007. Then the British economist think tank also predicted that the world economic growth rate was 2.6%. The decline is about 1 percentage point, and the lower forecast is that the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development will grow by 2. 1. Then the British company predicted a slightly higher growth of 2.9, and the initial judgment was a decrease of 1 percentage point. Then let's take a look at the situation of some large developed economies. The situation in the United States is like this. The International Monetary Fund predicts that the economic growth rate in 2008 will be 0.5%, which will decrease by 1.7 percentage points, the Asian Development Bank thinks it will decrease by 1.7 percentage points, and the British economist think tank thinks it will decrease by 1.4 percentage points. On the whole, the economic growth rate of the United States will drop by 65,438. What about the euro zone? The forecast results of each family are between 1.4- 1.7, which is about 1 percentage point lower. In Japan, the forecasts of various countries are relatively close, ranging from 1.3 to 1.5. These three economies have fallen back step by step, with the United States falling the most, followed by the euro zone and Japan again.

Then, in 2008, the economy of developing countries will still maintain a high growth rate, but the growth rate will slow down due to the economic slowdown in developed countries. In 2008, developing countries grew by 0.7, so these emerging economic powers also fell back. The Asian Development Bank predicted that the economic growth of developing countries and regions in Asia would be 0.6 in 2008, with a decrease of 1. 1 percentage point. The main reason for the decline is that the economies of most developing countries and regions in Asia, including China and India, will slow down, and the growth rate of China's imports and exports will slow down, thus affecting the economic growth rate. India's economic growth is mainly domestic demand, and the decline in economic growth will be less. China's economic growth rate is 10%. According to the results of the Asia-Pacific region survey recently released by the Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific, the economies of developing countries and regions reached the fastest since 2007, and will fall back in 2008. The growth rate of this region was 8.8 in 2007 and 7.7 in 2008, but compared with other regions in the world, it is still outstanding, mainly due to the rapid growth of China and India. In 2008, China's economy will grow by 65,438+00.7, Indian by 9% and Russian by 6.5%. This is the growth rate of the world economy. Generally speaking, all major economies have shown an obvious downward trend.

The second aspect is the world inflation rate, which will show an obvious upward trend. Then, due to the high national oil price and food poverty, the world CPI rose in the first quarter. The statistics of the World Bank rose from 3.9 in 1 month to 4. 1 in March, the United States was above 4%, the euro zone rose from 3.2 to 3.6, Britain rose from 2.2 to 2.5, developing countries rose from 7.6 to 8.4, and South Korea and South Korea rose. In 2008, the inflation situation is grim, and the inflation rate of both developed and developing countries will rise. Third, the growth rate of world trade will drop sharply. On April 17, the World Trade Organization released a report, pointing out that after the bursting of the real estate bubble in the United States, the exchange rate of the US dollar against the world's major currencies continued to fall, the international income was unbalanced, the international oil price rose, and there was a worldwide food shortage. In 2008, the development of world trade will be challenged by many uncertain factors, and the growth rate of world trade will drop sharply. This year, the growth rate of world trade will drop from 5.5% last year to 4.5%, which is a foregone conclusion. Then, on April 9, the International Monetary Fund released the spring report on the world economic outlook in 2008, arguing that the deterioration of the world trade environment has a greater impact on developing countries than on developed countries. It is estimated that the import and export of goods and services in developed countries will increase by 3. 1 and 4.5 respectively in 2008, which is 1 and 1.3 percentage points lower than the previous year, while developing countries will increase by 1.3 percentage points respectively. The fourth point is the influence of the national economic situation on China. The first is the impact of external demand. The global decline in the United States, the euro zone and Japan will affect external demand. The impact on investment will slow down China's export growth, reduce the investment demand of China's export industry, and have an impact on employment. The decline of world economic growth will slow down our export growth and affect employment in the export industry. The impact on prices, the world inflation rate has risen sharply, which has increased the pressure of imported inflation in China and increased the import cost. The indirect impact of the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States on China is not low, and our stock market has fluctuated greatly under the influence of the global financial crisis. The devaluation of the United States has led to the influx of international speculative capital, which not only touches the danger of China's financial system, but also affects the dollar income of foreign exchange reserves. The impact on China's macro-control and many complicated international factors have increased the difficulty of macro-control and been squeezed to some extent.

The second aspect is the analysis of the domestic economic situation. First of all, a very important analysis is the impact of rain and snow disasters.

So we make a general judgment on the domestic economic situation in 2008. We judge from the perspective of demand, first from the perspective of consumer demand. First, the income of urban and rural residents increased rapidly in 2007, so the disposable income of urban households increased by 17.2 in 2007, which was 1.85 percentage points faster than that of the previous year and exceeded the growth of GDP, which is a rare state in recent years. Then the per capita growth of rural residents will stimulate the growth of demand. Second, according to the deployment of the 17th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, the state has raised the urban and rural minimum living standard since June 5438+1 October1,which will stimulate consumer demand. Second, the Olympic Games will drive residents' consumption in accommodation, catering and other fields. Fourth, disasters have increased government spending on disaster relief. Now there is a new situation, earthquake disaster, financial losses are very large, but the impact of flow on GDP is likely to stimulate investment and consumption. Then from the perspective of investment demand, there are both factors that stimulate demand growth and factors that inhibit demand growth. Stimulating factors such as the change of government will drive the growth of investment. Second, there are many new projects, and third, post-disaster reconstruction, including the reconstruction of infrastructure such as electricity and housing, will stimulate the growth of consumer demand. The first is that tight monetary policy, related land policy and environmental protection policy will inhibit growth, and the second is that the slowdown of world economic growth will reduce the investment demand of China's export industries. Then, from the perspective of export demand, first of all, the global, American, euro zone and Japanese economies are obviously declining, which will lead to a further decline in China's export growth rate; Secondly, the adjustment of export tax rebate policy, the appreciation of RMB and the increase of labor cost will all inhibit the growth of exports. Then in the first quarter, China's exports increased by 2 1.4, down by 6.4 percentage points compared with last year, imports increased by 10 percentage point, and the surplus decreased by 10.6 percentage point year-on-year. So preliminary analysis, to sum up, the growth of consumption demand in 2008 may be maintained or slightly higher than that in 2007, investment demand may be slightly lower than that in 2007, and the growth of export demand may be lower than that in 2007, so the overall economic growth rate may be slightly lower than that in 2007.