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Economics graduation thesis
First, the status quo and problems of the real estate industry
In recent years, China's economic development, the acceleration of urbanization, the improvement of residents' income level and the government's policy of starting domestic demand have injected new vitality into the development of the real estate industry. Overall, China's real estate industry is still operating in a green and prosperous area, but local overheating and structural problems should be paid enough attention.
1, real estate investment has risen steadily, and regional hotspots have emerged.
The theory of developing economy tells us that capital accumulation and investment increase are necessary conditions for economic growth. Without the steady growth of investment, it is impossible for any country to realize the transformation from an agricultural country to industrialization and modernization. For China, a developing country with a rapidly growing population, it is particularly important to maintain a certain investment scale. In recent two years, the global economic growth has slowed down, and China's economy has achieved high growth of 7.3% and 8%, of which the investment contribution rate is as high as 3.6%. In the adjustment of domestic industrial structure, the proportion of real estate investment in fixed assets investment has gradually increased from 5.6% in 1990 to 20.7% in 200 1 year (table 1), which makes up for the decline in the growth rate of traditional industrial investment and gradually shows its contribution rate to economic growth.
From the total analysis, during the period from1997 to 2001,the growth rate of social investment was 8.6%, 13.9%, 5. 1% and 10.3% respectively, and the growth rate of real estate development investment was-/kloc respectively. It is slightly higher than the growth rate of fixed assets investment in the whole society, but the growth rate of 1992 ~ 1993 is as high as 1 7% and 165% (Figure1), and there is no overheating.
The investment structure of real estate development is basically reasonable, with housing accounting for 200 1 total investment at 66%.
Ordinary houses account for 5 1%, villas and affordable housing account for 6% and 9% respectively, office buildings account for 12%, and commercial buildings account for 12%.
Judging from the distribution of hot spots of continuous real estate investment, they are mainly concentrated in Guangzhou, Shanghai and Beijing.
The leading three urban agglomerations (Figure 2), according to the statistical data from June to September 2002, the investment growth rates of Beijing, Shanghai, Guangdong, Zhejiang, Jiangsu and Shandong were 29. %, 365,438+0.4%, 30%, 33.4%, 365,438+0.4% and. Objectively speaking, the real estate investment boom in these areas has its reasonable factors and worrying side. These three areas are the fastest growing areas in China. Economic development, the improvement of residents' income level, the upgrading of consumption, the entry of a large number of foreign capital and the flow of labor force will all increase the demand for real estate. However, like other products, real estate investment should be backed by demand. Without effective demand, real estate investment cannot grow continuously. Then, is the steady growth of regional housing investment in China supported by demand?
2. The sales rate, vacancy rate and regional differentiation are obvious.
In recent years, low-interest loans, tax exemption and loosening of household registration system are the three major policy factors to stimulate residents to buy houses. In 200 1 year, the sales rate of commercial housing (the proportion of the sales area in that year to the completed area in that year) was 88.4% and 75% respectively, and the sales rate of commercial housing reached the highest level in history (Figure 3).
However, while the sales rate is rising, the vacant area is also rising, reaching1200,000 square meters, of which more than 40 million square meters have been vacant for more than one year, accounting for 13.4% of the completed area of the house in that year, which is higher than the international warning line of 10%. We need to analyze the vacancy rate carefully. First of all, the rising vacancy rate is not a good phenomenon in any way. High vacancy rate means mismatch between supply and demand, which takes up a lot of bank funds and will affect the optimal allocation of resources. Secondly, any product on the market needs to have a reasonable inventory. As a high-value commodity, what is the reasonable inventory cycle and inventory ratio of real estate? Take housing as an example. Most of the houses developed in domestic real estate are high-rise and multi-storey, while most of them are single-family houses abroad. Different styles of houses have different degrees of goodness. So there is a good sale and a bad sale. Then, whether the vacancy rates of different houses are comparable is debatable. In addition, the vacancy rate in foreign countries is based on all stock houses, while the number of stock houses in cities and towns in China is still unknown. Third, regional differences. Even in China, the economic strength of different regions is different, and the tolerance for vacant commercial housing is also very different. 1998 after the outbreak of the east Asian crisis, there were 4.25 million square meters of vacant commercial housing in Hainan, which brought heavy losses to the local real estate industry and banking industry, leaving a devastated "unfinished building". At that time, there were nearly 7 million square meters of vacant houses in Shanghai, accounting for one-seventh of the country, but it was able to save the day.
Take the three hot spots of real estate investment as an example. 1998 to 200 1, the sales rates of commercial housing in Guangdong are 66%, 69%, 7 1% and 68% respectively, which are all lower than the national average. In the case of low sales rate, the construction area remains high, which is worrying. During the same period, the sales rates in Shanghai were 73% and 90%. 85% and 100%. As of September 2002, the sales area of commercial housing in Shanghai was14.04 million square meters, and the current completed area was11940,000 square meters. The sales volume is greater than the completed area, which undoubtedly helps to digest vacant commercial housing. In view of the fact that the sales rate and vacancy rate are a result of the pre-investment and business activities of real estate, a comprehensive and dynamic analysis of the linkage relationship between newly started area, construction area, completed area and demolition area can make a correct judgment on the changes of sales rate and vacancy rate.
3. The price is basically stable and the structural changes are outstanding.
From June to September, 2002, the sales prices of houses in some large and medium-sized cities in China rose rapidly, among which the sales price indexes of Nanchang, Hangzhou, Qingdao, Shanghai and Xiamen in Ningbo were 1 19.2, 109.3, 108.4 and 65438+ respectively. However, the average price of the whole country is basically stable, especially the price of commercial housing related to the people has increased slightly, and it has also dropped slightly in big cities such as Beijing (Figure 4).
But in the face of lower prices, ordinary people still can't find affordable houses, which requires us to carefully analyze the composition of the average price, or the structure of the house. In our statistical analysis, only the average house price is provided, and the proportion of houses with different prices or the price of each house is rarely provided. Taking Beijing as an example, in recent years, in order to cooperate with the transformation of the old city, the development and construction of affordable housing have been increased, and the increase in the supply of low-priced housing will undoubtedly lower the average price. In addition, in the past two years, Beijing has been hyping "WTO accession" and the Olympic Games, and the rapid expansion of urban construction has spread like a pie. A large number of villas and high-grade houses in the outer suburbs are patchwork. Due to the low cost of land in the outer suburbs, the villa price is 7583 yuan/square meter, which is lower than that in the outer suburbs 1 1605 yuan/square meter. The launch of such a large number of suburban real estate projects also has the effect of lowering the overall house price.
Therefore, the reasonable overall housing price does not mean that the housing supply structure is reasonable, and the lower unit price (RMB/m2) does not mean that the total price of each house is lower. Although the unit price of affordable housing in Beijing and other cities is controlled by the government, due to the large building area and high building standards, the total price of each house is too high. As a result, many wage earners still cannot afford it. In addition, the location of low-cost housing is not satisfactory. Working-class people who commute by bus want to buy a house within the Fourth Ring Road in Beijing, but low-cost housing is mostly in the Fifth Ring Road and suburbs. It is not surprising that most people who buy affordable housing are people with considerable economic income in the case of inadequate infrastructure construction such as subway and public transportation.
4. Speculating geothermal energy in the geosphere has become a hidden worry in the development of the real estate industry.
Seeking truth from facts, the high housing prices in big cities such as Beijing have their reasonable side, among which "more than five"-a large number of permanent residents, foreigners, migrants and high-income people, and a large number of group purchases will push up housing prices; The irregular land market and geothermal speculation are the fundamental reasons for the rise in housing prices in big cities such as Beijing. Many real estate developers seized the opportunity of "old city reconstruction" or occupied land to increase their land reserves before the implementation of the Provisions on Transferring the Right to Use State-owned Land by Bidding, Auction and Listing on July 0, 2002, resulting in an increase of 173% and 5438+0 in the land purchased in Beijing in 2006, ranking among the best in the country (Figure 5).
Real estate giants have made huge profits from speculation, land prices have changed hands many times, and house prices have also gone up. This kind of land speculation is harmful to the development of Beijing's real estate industry in the long run. As the saying goes, "the tree is not as big as the sky", and the price of real estate cannot go on forever. Because it is impossible for any enterprise or individual to start a business in Beijing to ignore the cost of production and survival, the short-term price increase may be within the tolerable range. However, when the real estate price rises too fast and exceeds the acceptable cost, then Beijing will lose its advantage in attracting entrepreneurial enterprises and talents. The high land price and high housing price in Hong Kong have become the main factors restricting its economic development. Shouldn't this arouse our vigilance and reflection?
5. The development of real estate credit is mixed.
Real estate is an asset with large investment and high value, and its investment and consumption are inseparable from financial support. From the analysis of residential consumption credit, the introduction of mortgage credit mechanism into the residential market is undoubtedly a major breakthrough for China's banking industry, which has been accustomed to chasing "big enterprises", "big projects" and "big loans" for many years, and also a great change in consumption concept and behavior for the general public who are accustomed to "living within their means". The rapid growth of personal housing mortgage loan not only improves the asset structure of banks, but also improves the "security and profitability" of bank credit funds, and also promotes a virtuous circle of housing production and consumption.
From the analysis of real estate development credit, it can be seen that the growth rate of bank loans to real estate development enterprises is very small in recent years, which leads to the proportion of domestic loans in the source of funds of enterprises has been hovering at 22%. Comparatively speaking, the proportion of self-raised funds and other sources of funds is on the rise. Then, under the circumstance that the enterprise's own funds are insufficient and the multi-year debt ratio is as high as 76%, the self-raised funds mainly rely on the pre-sale house payment and the bank working capital loan. In addition to some personal savings, a considerable part of consumers' advance payment for house purchase comes from bank loans. So no matter what form the funds appear, most of them go out from banks.
Then, will bank credit investment induce real estate bubbles and financial risks? In modern credit economy society, bank lending, as a means of financing, is not a bubble in itself. Whether a bubble can be induced depends on the investment and efficiency of funds. If the funds are invested in middle and low-grade ordinary houses with great market demand potential, the investment results can meet social needs and enhance social wealth. On the contrary, blindly speculating on land, high-grade buildings and high-grade entertainment facilities is extremely hot on the surface. In fact, the relationship between supply and demand is seriously unbalanced, and the bubble is inevitable. Therefore, to analyze whether there is a bubble in the real estate industry, the scale and growth rate of bank credit is only a variable, and the key is to look at the investment of funds and the quality of assets.
In addition, whether the bank's own system is sound is also the key to resist the real estate credit risk. The basic indicators to measure the stability of the banking system include: capital adequacy ratio, asset quality (bad debt rate), management level, yield and current asset ratio. 1997 in the east Asian crisis, real estate credit in Hong Kong and Singapore accounted for 30 ~ 40% of bank assets, but it was safe when real estate prices plummeted, because the capital adequacy ratio of banks in Hong Kong and Singapore was as high as 15 ~ 20%, and the non-performing asset ratio was only 3%, while the capital asset ratio of banks in South Korea, the Philippines and Thailand was 6 ~1. In the case of insufficient capital and high rate of non-performing assets in China's banks, how much share should individual housing credit and real estate enterprise loans occupy in bank assets to optimize asset structure? How to improve the quality of real estate credit under the imperfect credit system and mortgage insurance system in China? These are all problems that need to be solved urgently.
Second, measures to prevent the real estate bubble
The above analysis shows that the overall situation of China's real estate market is optimistic, and this round of real estate fever is mainly driven by consumer demand, which is qualitatively different from the single investment fever of 1992 ~ 1993. But the overall situation is optimistic, which does not mean that there are no problems and hidden worries. We believe that the potential risk of China real estate industry is not the total amount, but the structure; Not speed, but quality. Therefore, for different real estate fever, the government's regulation methods should also be different. According to the formation mechanism of the real estate bubble, we think the following measures should be taken to prevent the real estate bubble:
1, standardize the land market from the source of land.
The shortage of land resources not only puzzles the development of China's real estate industry, but also puzzles the development of urbanization and even the whole national economy. In a sense, how to use the relatively poor land resources to provide a just, equal, prosperous and stable development and living environment for all citizens depends on the optimal allocation of land resources. We believe that: firstly, the legal status of urban planning should be determined through legislation, so as to prevent the change of time and quick success, ensure the rationality of land use structure and lay the foundation for the long-term economic development of cities and regions. Secondly, accelerate the construction of the tangible land market and realize the fairness, openness and justice of the transaction of state-owned land use rights. In the future, no matter who is the user of state-owned land (government or other enterprises and institutions), land transfer should be incorporated into the tangible market to avoid many disadvantages of "black-box" operation, and bidding is not simply the highest bidder. The government can use comprehensive indicators, including the qualifications of enterprises, past development performance, land use direction, market prospects of development projects, etc. , determine the qualification of the winning bidder. In this way, the government can effectively regulate the scale, conditions, timing and location of land supply, and at the same time effectively guarantee the supply of ordinary residential land urgently needed by the people. Thirdly, a land information system should be established, and all city governments should disclose all information about land to be sold, existing land use structure, planning, evaluation price and so on. To prevent information asymmetry from providing convenience for some people to seize land and speculate for profiteering; Fourth, impose severe sanctions on violators to ensure the normal operation of market order.
2. Flexible use of interest rates and tax policies to regulate the real estate market.
In the past two years, the real estate craze was formed to some extent under the stimulus of the government's macro-control policies. In the period of economic contraction, it is understandable that low interest rates and tax relief policies are conducive to stimulating effective demand. However, the long-term implementation of a policy or the implementation of the same policy regardless of the beneficiaries may give the market a wrong signal: repeated interest rate cuts and low capital costs will induce many enterprises and individuals to set foot in high-risk investments, which will lead to mistakes in market resource allocation. In order to guide enterprises to invest and develop more in line with market demand, the government should raise the loan interest rate of investment villas, high-grade apartments, high-grade entertainment facilities and office buildings in a timely manner, and raise the loan interest rate of non-owner-occupied individuals, so that the low-interest policy can better tilt towards low-income people; The city government should also levy real estate tax on high-grade real estate, and can adopt progressive tax. For China, which is still in the development stage, this will help to curb rampant extravagance and waste, and realize urbanization and industrialization with limited and precious resources. In addition, improving the supply of market information is also an important part of government regulation of the market.
3. Improve the real estate financial system to prevent problems before they happen.
China's banking industry is involved in the real estate credit business when the financial system is not perfect. From the external environment, China's personal credit system, mortgage system and mortgage insurance mechanism are not perfect. From the internal mechanism, there are many vulnerabilities in Chinese banks, such as insufficient capital, high non-performing assets and low level of asset-liability management, which will increase the risk of real estate credit. However, in the face of the impact of financial globalization and the pressure to reduce the spread many times, China's banking industry urgently needs to find new profit growth points, and emerging real estate credit, especially personal housing mortgage loans, has become an ideal choice for the banking industry. Personal housing mortgage loan is a good asset, but if it is held too high, it will also increase the cost of capital and operational risks. This is the truth that "eggs cannot be put in one basket". In the United States, personal housing mortgage loans only account for 18% of the assets of commercial banks and 50% of the assets of mortgage banks. Bank funds from different sources will have different uses. In Hong Kong, banks should grasp the quality of loans in time. Therefore, China's banking industry should start with infrastructure construction to improve its ability to resist financial risks; Financial supervision departments should improve the development of credit system, mortgage system, mortgage insurance and mortgage secondary market from the perspective of system construction, so as to promote the synchronous development of real estate industry and financial industry.
4. Strive to improve the competitiveness of enterprises and meet the challenges of 2 1 century.
The great adjustment of global economic structure and the acceleration of industrialization and urbanization in China in 2 1 century provide new opportunities for the development of China's real estate industry. We real estate enterprises should recognize our mission and responsibility: we are not only the developers and builders of future cities, but also the designers of future cities and regional spaces; We provide people with not only physical assets and value carriers, but also brand-new knowledge and technology, brand-new production and lifestyle. Therefore, China's real estate enterprises should adhere to the concept of "people-oriented", be less blind and more rational in investment and management; Less hype, more sincerity and more benefits to consumers. Only by working hard on product quality, function and service can China's real estate enterprises be invincible in the fierce market competition.
Main references:
Xu Dianqing et al., Bubble Economy and Financial Crisis, Renmin University of China Press, August 2000.
Lin Yifu, "Some Lessons Worth Thinking from the Southeast Asian Financial Crisis", Economics Izvestia, 1998-05-08.
Liu Shucheng, Wang Lina and Chang Xin, "Analysis of China's Economic Trend", Economic Research, April 2002.
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