Total risk management method is a concrete means to implement risk management process, and the establishment of risk management method system is helpful to the concrete implementation of each process. After years of development, the methods of project risk management are more mature and diversified, which makes it possible to comprehensively analyze all risks of real estate development projects. The risk management method system of real estate development projects is like a method library. Summarize the risk management methods in each process, compare the advantages and disadvantages of each method, and find out the scope of application in risk management of real estate development projects. In project risk management, effective methods can be quickly selected for qualitative and quantitative risk analysis according to the characteristics of each stage. ?

In the framework of comprehensive risk management, the target system is the core, and all personnel, processes and methods must be formulated and implemented around the target of risk management; Organizational system is the foundation, which ensures the smooth progress of risk management from the organizational system and cultivates the atmosphere of risk management for all staff; Process system is the key. Risks in the whole process of real estate development projects should be identified, analyzed, handled and monitored according to the risk management process. Methodology system is a means to promote all risk management. The four systems complement each other, forming a relatively complete comprehensive risk management system for real estate projects. The specific relationship of each system (as shown in figure 1). ?

2. What is the overall risk management process of real estate development projects?

2. 1 Risk identification of real estate development projects?

Risk identification of real estate development projects is the basis of risk management. It is mainly used to determine the source of risk and the process of risk classification. Risk identification is based on the work breakdown of real estate development projects, that is, risk identification is carried out for different stages of real estate development projects. The risk factors at different stages are different, and the basis of risk classification and grouping is also different. ?

2.2 Risk assessment of real estate development projects?

Risk assessment of real estate development projects is a process of estimating the probability and possible consequences of risks in real estate development projects through qualitative and quantitative analysis of risks, ranking risks according to high, medium and low risks, compiling a risk list, and finally conducting special risk research according to the degree of risks. It is worth noting that the risk analysis scope of real estate development project schedule, cost and quality is wider than that of construction projects, so the possible risks should be analyzed from the characteristics of project feasibility study, project planning and design, construction and operation. ?

2.3 Real estate development project risk monitoring?

Risk monitoring of real estate development projects is the process of revising and perfecting the implementation of risk response plan, and it is also the guarantee for the effective implementation of risk management of real estate development projects. Risk monitoring should not only take risk response measures according to the risk response plan, but also revise the results of risk identification and evaluation and the risk response plan with the deepening of the project, that is, the cyclical process of risk identification, evaluation, response, monitoring and re-identification. ?

3. How to deal with the overall risk of real estate development projects?

3. 1 risk aversion?

Risk avoidance is a measure to abandon, suspend or change the conditions of development projects according to risk prediction and evaluation, and fundamentally eliminate potential risks. Usually, when the possibility of potential threats is too great, or the possible loss consequences are too serious, and there are no other risk management measures available, risk avoidance is often taken. Risk aversion can be roughly divided into two ways: one is to give up or terminate an activity that may cause risk loss; The other is to change the activity plan or change the way of working. It can be seen that avoiding risks is a negative preventive measure, and some of them are forced. Because avoiding risks can avoid losses, but at the same time it also loses the opportunity to make profits. Therefore, when choosing risk response measures, it is best to use risk avoidance as a preventive measure carefully. ?

3.2 Risk control?

Risk control refers to measures taken to reduce the probability and degree of risk loss before, during and after risk events. According to the purpose of risk control, risk control can be divided into risk prevention and risk suppression. The former aims to reduce the probability of risk loss; The latter aims to reduce the degree of risk loss. Risk control begins with taking preventive measures to eliminate and reduce potential risks and reduce the frequency and degree of losses. Therefore, this is a positive risk management measure. Because of the low cost and good benefit of risk control measures, there will be no adverse sequelae. Therefore, risk control measures should be given priority to all kinds of risks in the process of real estate development. 3.3 Risk transfer?

Risk transfer refers to the measures taken by developers to consciously transfer the risks they cannot or are unwilling to bear to other economic units during the development process. Risk transfer is different from risk avoidance. It is not to give up or stop project development, but to transfer the legal responsibility for possible losses caused by risks in development activities to others. Risk transfer is also different from risk control. Different from risk control, it does not directly adjust risk factors to reduce the probability and degree of risk loss, but indirectly reduces its own loss by shifting the wind surface. ?

The main ways of risk transfer are contract, guarantee, futures and insurance. Contract forms include fixed lump sum contract, cost-reward contract, unit price contract, etc. Insurance includes property insurance, liability insurance and personal insurance. Various contracts have different effects on the risks of developers and contractors. Developers can adopt appropriate contract forms according to the project situation and transfer risks reasonably, as shown in Table 1. ?

Risk transfer is generally adopted in the following situations: (1) The loss between the transferor and the transferee (risk receiver) of the risk can be clearly calculated and divided, otherwise the risk transfer between the two parties cannot be carried out; (2) The transferee is able and willing to take appropriate risks; (3) The cost of risk transfer is lower than other risk management measures. ?

3.4 Risk retention?

Risk retention is the loss caused by real estate developers taking risks themselves. In real estate development, for some inevitable risks that are difficult to control and transfer, or may gain greater benefits from taking risks, risk retention measures are often taken without affecting the fundamental interests and overall interests of developers. Risk retention can be divided into two categories: planned risk retention and unplanned risk retention. Planned risk retention is active risk retention, and its specific measures are: (l) self-protection; (2) exclusive insurance; (3) loss amortization; (4) loan compensation; (5) deductible insurance. Unplanned detention is passive detention, which is handled by risk emergency reserve. Risk retention measures should be combined with risk control measures. When implementing risk retention measures, we should try our best to ensure that major project risks have been insured or risk control plans have been implemented. We should also compare the risk retention strategy with the insurance strategy in order to make decisions that are more conducive to saving risk management costs. ?

3.5 Risk utilization?

Risk utilization refers to the behavior that developers take advantage of people's fear of risk and pursuit of safety to participate in development activities with real risks, rely on their own solid risk management work, foster strengths and avoid weaknesses, and seek to maximize their own interests. Risk utilization is a higher level of risk management, which requires higher management level of risk managers. They must have rich project experience, skilled skills and high adaptability to emergencies in order to analyze the availability and value of risks and make effective use of them. For example, under the current conditions of land marketization, business land must be obtained by bidding, auction and hanging. However, some shrewd real estate developers have found another way, starting with the first-level development of land, and laying the foundation for obtaining the second-level development right by striving for the development right of a certain piece of land. Because if the first-level land development is carried out, the relevant information of the land will be known in advance to a certain extent. There are inherent advantages in listing and trading in the secondary land market, and the probability of obtaining secondary development rights is greater. The so-called "curve land acquisition" is to make good use of policy risks. ?

4. What problems should be paid attention to in the overall risk response of real estate development projects?

4. 1 Should the risk response plan be targeted?

The formulation of risk response plan is the key link of risk management. Due to the uniqueness and uniqueness of the project, the existing model cannot be copied when formulating countermeasures. We must put forward targeted solutions according to the project's own conditions and the results of project risk identification and evaluation. At the same time, we must overcome the fluky psychology when formulating the response plan, and do not take effective preventive measures against risks in order to reduce expenses. ?

4.2 Pay attention to the combination of management methods?

Whether it is risk control, risk transfer or risk retention, each risk response measure has its limitations. In the face of complex and changeable risks, we should pay attention to the combination of various methods, formulate various schemes according to the specific conditions of the project, and sort them by priority to avoid being caught off guard because of the ineffectiveness of a single scheme. ?

4.3 Pay attention to the economy of management?

In order to avoid or reduce risks and get higher returns, we must pay a certain price. However, based on the principle of economy, it is necessary to comprehensively evaluate the effectiveness and economy of the measures. For example, when dealing with unpredictable risks, insurance or risk retention can often be adopted, but which method is more?

Economical and effective, we can compare the cost of insurance with the expenditure of risk reserve, so as to choose more economical and effective measures. ?

Risk of real estate development and operation and feasibility study of development projects 1. Risk of real estate development and operation (1. Causes of risk of real estate development and operation) Any management activity is risky. The so-called management risk refers to the situation that managers cannot achieve the expected goals due to various factors in management activities, resulting in management losses or failures. The particularity of property management determines the greater risk of property management. 1. The immovability or fixity of real estate location determines the irreconcilability of real estate to market supply and demand; 2. The long-term nature of real estate investment determines the inflexibility of real estate management to changes in market supply and demand; 3. The fixity of real estate investment operation determines that real estate investment operation is not easy to realize; 4. The dispersion of real estate market information determines the inadequacy of real estate market and the difficulty of realizing it. Real estate management risks have different forms and functions at different stages. (II) Types of real estate development and operation risks In order to understand the nature and laws of real estate operation risks, improve the understanding level of real estate operation risk analysis and strengthen the management of real estate risks, real estate operation risks can be divided into different types according to certain standards. 1. Natural risks of real estate management The natural risks of real estate management refer to the risks arising from the destruction and damage to real estate caused by natural disasters, such as earthquakes, floods, storms and fires, in the process of real estate management. 2. Social risks of property management The social risks of property management generally come from two aspects. First, it is caused by political reasons, such as changes in the national political situation and political situation, changes in national macroeconomic policies and real estate policies, and real estate business risks caused by changes in national and real estate laws and regulations; The second is the risks caused by improper or wrong behaviors of the collective and individuals, such as theft, robbery and fraud. Among them, the biggest impact on real estate management is the change of national politics, policies, laws and regulations. 3. Real estate management economy and market risk Real estate management economy and market risk are caused by changes in real estate market conditions or uncertain factors in market operation. Under the condition of market economy, the market is the concentrated expression of various economic operation conditions, and there are many uncertain factors in the market operation. Social and economic changes at home and abroad, changes in economic policies and changes in residents' income levels will all affect the operation of the real estate market. 4. Technical risk of property management The technical risk of property management is the risk brought by scientific and technological progress. Nowadays, it has entered the era of knowledge economy, and science and technology have developed very rapidly. The progress of science and technology has changed the variety, quality and performance of building materials, and also promoted the improvement of building technology and the innovation of building structure, thus greatly improving the scientific and technological content of construction industry and building products, and constantly devaluing existing houses and other buildings, thus causing technical risks in real estate management. 5. Internal Risks of Property Management Enterprises Due to problems such as the internal management level of property management enterprises, the expected returns of enterprises are affected, thus forming management risks. For example, due to the chaotic financial management of enterprises, the capital turnover is slow; Poor construction management delayed the construction period; Low management level has affected the rental and sale of real estate. (III) Risk management methods of real estate operation Risk management is a relatively demanding management. Because the causes of risks are various, extremely complex and sometimes even inevitable, the following methods are mainly adopted in risk management. 1. Avoid risks. Enterprises are required to avoid high-risk or high-risk businesses and choose non-risk and low-risk businesses when making business decisions to avoid management risks. 2. Transfer risks. Is to transfer all or part of the risks that may occur or have occurred in the business. Generally speaking, the main method adopted is to transfer the business projects that may have risks, or to cooperate or jointly operate the projects with operational risks with other units, so as to achieve the purpose of dispersing risks or reducing risks. However, the transfer of risks also requires a certain price, some of which are direct and some are indirect. 3. Reduce risk loss. Once operational risks occur, enterprises should do everything possible to take various effective measures to reduce the losses caused by risks. When reducing business risks, the following methods are usually adopted: accurately predict the cost-income ratio of business projects and reduce unnecessary expenses in the business process; Shorten the business cycle or reduce the business scale; By signing the contract in the same way, the variables that are sensitive to profit, such as interest, development and construction cost, construction period and pre-lease and pre-sale of houses, are fixed, so as to reduce or narrow the risk. 4. Implement insurance for commercial projects. Implementing insurance for business projects is a better way for operators to transfer business risks. Although insurance has to pay a fee, that is, insurance premium, it is much smaller than the loss caused by the risk once it occurs. Under the condition of developed market economy, it is a widely used risk management method to transfer or reduce risks through insurance, so it is also the main method to avoid or reduce risks in modern times. The possible risks should be scientifically classified and queued; Find out the cause of the risk and its causal relationship; Take appropriate measures to identify specific risks. The main methods to identify risks are: analysis and inquiry, financial statements, flow charts, on-site observation and environmental analysis. Identifying risks is the basis and the most difficult task of risk management. Second, the feasibility study of real estate development and operation (I) Significance of feasibility study Feasibility study is an important link in modern management activities and an important method of management. The feasibility study of real estate management is a scientific method for comprehensive technical and economic analysis of business projects before real estate management decision. Through the feasibility study, the market operation, economy, technology and other aspects of the business project can be investigated, analyzed and studied in depth; We can compare, analyze and demonstrate the various management schemes proposed from the technical and economic aspects; It can also scientifically predict and evaluate the economic benefits of management projects, and provide scientific basis for the final decision of management decision-making departments. (2) The feasibility study is generally divided into three stages, namely, the opportunity feasibility study stage; Preliminary feasibility study stage; Final feasibility study stage. 1. The main task of the opportunity feasibility study stage and its task opportunity feasibility study stage is to determine the business direction and put forward the business objectives. For property management companies, it is to make suggestions on management projects. In order to realize the task of opportunity feasibility study stage, it is necessary to make a preliminary investigation and forecast on the development background, local resource conditions, market supply and demand and other basic conditions of investment and operation projects. Through the preliminary research, find and determine the most favorable investment direction and investment opportunities, put forward suggestions for feasibility study, and put forward requirements for the next research. 2. The main task of the preliminary feasibility study stage is to further study the scale of the business project, the supply of building materials, the location of investment lots, the design scheme of the construction project and the construction progress of the project according to the results of the opportunity stage. For some key issues, special research must be carried out, such as market demand, advantages and disadvantages of investment and operation projects, rationality of engineering design scheme, feasibility of construction progress, etc. On the basis of further research on these problems, we carefully compare and analyze various schemes, exclude some schemes with little feasibility, further narrow the scope of work and workload, and lay the foundation for the final feasibility study. 3. The final feasibility study and the final feasibility study of its tasks are the final stage of the feasibility study. The main task of this research stage is to make a detailed and in-depth analysis and demonstration on the technical, economic and market aspects of the management project, determine the main factors related to the management project, and seriously investigate, analyze, calculate and evaluate these factors, and on this basis, put forward one or several alternative optimal schemes as the basis for management decision-making. In a word, in the three stages of feasibility study, the main task of opportunity study stage is to determine the investment direction and put forward the project proposal; The main task of the preliminary feasibility study stage is to determine the vitality and development prospect of the project; The main task of the final feasibility study stage is to analyze the market, economy and technology of investment projects and provide reliable basis for managers. (III) Contents of Feasibility Study The feasibility study of real estate development and management is a very extensive technical and economic analysis. This kind of research not only needs a comprehensive analysis of market, technology, planning, organization and other factors, but also needs to study the problems that are compatible with the national social and economic development environment and coordinated with the overall development planning of the city and region. The feasibility study of property management includes many contents, which can be attributed to different aspects according to different standards. But in any case, the feasibility study of the property management project must include the following three contents: 1. Problems in the real estate market. Under the condition of market economy, production is to meet the needs of the market. If there is no market demand, real estate development and operation will lose the foundation of existence and development. Therefore, the primary problem in the feasibility study of property management is to study whether there is a market and how big the market capacity is. In the feasibility study of property management, whether there is a market is a problem to solve the "necessity" of property management, so this problem has become the basis and premise of all feasibility studies. 2. Engineering and technical issues. This paper mainly studies the high-tech content in planning, design and engineering technology, and whether the difficulties in planning, design and engineering technology can be solved or overcome. This problem is mainly to solve the "possibility" problem of property management. 3. Economic benefits. It is through the economic evaluation of real estate business activities to study whether it is profitable and the level of profitability. Under the condition of market economy, the ultimate goal of any enterprise is to obtain profits and maximize profits. If the enterprise is not profitable, it will lose its business objectives. Therefore, this problem is mainly to solve the "rationality" problem of real estate management or the ultimate goal of enterprise management. Generally speaking, the relationship between these three aspects is: the market problem is the premise of real estate management; Engineering technical problems are the means of real estate management; Benefit is the purpose of real estate management. Only by giving clear answers to these three questions can the feasibility study of property management be completed. (IV) Feasibility study report of real estate development project After the conclusion or opinion of the feasibility study of real estate operation is formed, a feasibility study report must also be prepared.