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Sino-Russian cooperation is only for national defense needs, and Sino-Russian relations are not reliable.
According to the Russian News Agency reported on the 20th11April14th, since the end of the Cold War, the improvement of political and economic relations between China and Russia has affected a series of decisions on international security issues. China and Russia have also expanded their economic and security cooperation. In addition, their unique policies on many global and regional issues are also very similar. However, the solutions to a series of major problems between China and Russia are still uncoordinated and sometimes even conflict with each other. Moreover, compared with other friendly countries, the proportion of Sino-Russian economic and trade cooperation is also very low, let alone compared with allies.
Although strengthening cooperation between China and Russia will pose a greater threat to other countries (such as China and Russia's control over Central Asia), there are still several factors that make it impossible for China and Russia to form such an alliance.
Sino-Russian government relations may have reached the best period in history. The two sides regard each other as developing strategic partners, have conducted a lot of high-level exchanges, issued many statements of mutual support, and done many things that can prove Sino-Russian cooperation. However, the current good situation between China and Russia is not determined by the common values and interests of both sides. In fact, the current friendly situation between China and Russia is largely due to national security considerations. China and Russia have experienced the resurgence of geopolitics in the past two decades, but the defense issues between China and Russia are not directed at each other, but focus on some special regions and issues, such as maintaining stability in Central Asia and restricting the development of North Korea's nuclear weapons.
Most policy makers in China are worried about separatist activities at home and abroad, Islamic terrorists in the West, and the possibility of conflict with the United States in the Asia-Pacific region due to territorial disputes between Taiwan Province Province and the southeast waters of China. On the other hand, Russian analysts are busy dealing with terrorists in the Caucasus mountains, maintaining their influence in Europe and managing defense relations with the United States. The United States has also challenged Russia's national security belt. Neither China nor Russian military experts believe that the two countries will pose a military threat to each other in the short term. The Russian government even provided China's army with an experienced navy, air force and air defense platform. Russia is convinced that the China People's Liberation Army will only use these systems against other countries. In addition, China and Russia have also settled their long-standing border territorial disputes and pinned down their rivals in Central Asia, the Korean Peninsula and other regions. Chinese and Russian leaders promised to respect each other's sovereignty and territorial integrity and refused to publicly condemn each other's foreign affairs and internal affairs. They also issued a joint statement calling for the establishment of a multi-level world ruled by no country.
However, despite the improvement of Sino-Russian relations, the two countries have not yet formed a national defense alliance of mutual trust and pursued similar but different policies on many issues. Compared with the trade in Europe and other countries in North America, there are few non-governmental and economic exchanges between China and Russia.
The most obvious change in Sino-Russian defense relations is that in recent years, Russian arms sales to China have been greatly reduced. The increase and perfection of China's national defense weapons also make Russian officials face a difficult choice. Until now, Russia has refused to sell its most advanced weapons to China, such as long-range ballistic missiles, strategic bombers, air defense and missile defense systems. They are afraid that China will upset the military balance in East Asia after acquiring such weapons.
The Russian government is also reluctant to sell advanced land weapons or tactical air support fighters to China, because these will make the PLA even more powerful in the Sino-Russian land war. On the contrary, Russia sold major advanced naval warfare and air defense weapons to China. Russia's restraint in arms sales means that China only buys weapons from Russia, and it is difficult to confront Taiwan Province Province, Japan or the United States with more advanced weapons. Now, with the vigorous development of China's local military industry, China has been reluctant to purchase Russian low-quality Soviet weapons, and the PLA is only interested in advanced Russian weapons. But the Russian government is unwilling to sell these weapons to China. Apart from national security considerations, they are also afraid that China will copy their technology to make weapons and then sell them to potential Russian customers at low prices.
The change of Sino-Russian military trade means that bilateral military cooperation has deviated from the basis of cooperation after the Cold War and has become the main stimulating factor.
The Russian government is also unwilling to transfer its best nuclear energy technology and other knowledge products to China, because that will make low-priced China manufacturing replace Russia as an exporter in the third market. There are still problems in energy cooperation between the two sides. The two sides kept saying that the two countries signed a huge oil and gas contract, but it was not realized until recently. Russian energy companies are trying to attract customers from Europe and Asia to increase their bids. Although this method improves Russia's bargaining power, it makes China more suspicious of whether Russia is a reliable long-term energy partner.
The two governments also have doubts about each other's activities in Central Asia, where China and Russian state-owned enterprises are once again competing for oil and gas resources. China refused to agree to the Russian decision to recognize Abkhazia and South Ossetia as independent countries. These two places were seized by Russia from Georgia in the August 2008 war. At the social level, China's non-governmental exchanges are also very limited.
China accused Russia of failing to ensure the safety of Russians working in China and did not respect their efforts. Russia complains that pollution from China has flooded into Russian territory, and fears that a large number of immigrants from China have flooded into the Far East, resulting in a small area in eastern Russia actually becoming a part of China.
Years of false expectations and frustrating trade have slowed down the long-awaited energy cooperation between China and Russia. Considering the geographical proximity of China and Russia, Russia is the world's largest oil exporter, while China is the world's largest energy importer and the fastest growing country. It seems that China and Russia will soon form a United front. Russian oil and gas reserves rank among the top in the world, making it easier for China to purchase than the Persian Gulf and Africa, and without the risk of pirates and foreign navies. However, Sino-Russian energy cooperation is limited. Technical barriers, price conflicts, minister of transportation facilities and mutual distrust lead China to purchase Russian energy only at a relatively low level. When evaluating Sino-Russian energy cooperation, it is very important to distinguish between substantive contracts and declared goals.
Although China and Russia reached a border agreement in 2008. However, tensions on the Sino-Russian border also occur from time to time. The trade imbalance between the two sides is another factor in the tension between China and Russia. Although both China and Russia are worried about the strategic ambition of the United States, they have not carried out extensive cooperation in this field. In East Asia and Central Asia, although the policies pursued by China and Russia are basically the same, they have their own thoughts.