Qualitative prediction method mainly takes experts as the object of asking for information, organizes relevant experts, finds out the law and makes a judgment on the future through comprehensive analysis of past and present problems. This prediction method relies on experts' experience and judgment, and makes quantitative estimation with systematic and logical thinking methods, thus predicting the future. This method is simple and time-consuming. It is an early application method and still plays an important role in various forecasting methods. But this method is also one-sided and inaccurate. As an auxiliary method of freight volume forecasting, qualitative forecasting methods mainly include personal judgment method and expert meeting method.
Quantitative forecasting method is to use quantitative analysis to study the development trend of freight volume. Based on historical statistical data and related information, it uses various mathematical methods to predict the future demand of freight market. The commonly used quantitative forecasting methods of freight volume are as follows:
1. Time series analysis. According to the time series composed of historical data, the changing law of development trend is extracted from it, and the future is inferred from the past, relying on the possibility of the past state continuing to the future, so as to achieve the purpose of prediction.
2. Regression analysis method. According to the causal relationship between economic phenomena, the regression equation is used to analyze the law of economic change and make predictions.
3. Grey model prediction method.
4.BP neural network model.
5. Speed proportional method. It is based on the proportional relationship between the growth rate of traffic volume and the growth rate of industrial and agricultural output value in economies of scale, and is more suitable for total forecast.