For more than a decade, tense crises between the two countries have occurred from time to time. However, every time I see "dark clouds gathering", "rain" doesn't rain.
Since the disintegration of the Soviet Union, the contradictions, conflicts and confrontations between Russia and Georgia, two newly born countries, have almost never stopped, and there is a growing trend of tension. From April to May, 2008, because the Georgian unmanned reconnaissance plane was shot down by the military in Abkhazia, China, the government was furious and began to station a large number of troops in the neighboring areas of Abkhazia, while Russia sent more peacekeeping troops to Abkhazia, claiming to severely deal with possible Georgian aggression. The relationship between the two sides is so tense that some people describe the crisis of Russia-Georgia relations as "close to a state of war". For more than a decade, similar situations have often occurred between the two countries. However, every time I see "dark clouds gathering", "rain" doesn't rain.
The basic background of the relationship between the two countries
The Caucasus mountains span the Black Sea and Caspian Sea from northwest to southeast, forming a part of the dividing line between Europe and Asia. The relationship between nations and countries on the north and south sides of the mountain range is complex and special. The northern part of the Caucasus Mountains is called the Inner Caucasus or the North Caucasus, and now it belongs to the southern part of Russia. The Russian central government has good relations with North Ossetia-Alain Autonomous Republic, Ingushetia Republic, Chechen Republic, Caraccia-Zerka Republic and Kabardino-Balkar Republic. The southern Caucasus is called Transcaucasia, also called South Caucasus. There are three countries-Georgia with Orthodox Christianity as the main belief, Armenia with traditional Christianity as the main belief, and Azerbaijan with close relationship between Islam and Iran. Caucasus Mountain divides Eurasia into two parts, which are also divided into two parts by different nationalities and countries, and torn by different civilizations, different nationalities and different powers.
One is Abkhazia, which has close ties with Russia.
Among the three countries in Transcaucasia, the relationship between Georgia and Russia is the most tense. Georgia is a small country, its land area is 0.4 1% of that of Russia, and its total population was 3. 1% of that of Russia at the beginning of 2006. Why is the relationship between two countries with such a huge difference in area tense? There are undoubtedly many reasons, the most direct of which is that Abkhazia and South Ossetia in Georgia are too close to Russia.
Abkhazia, the Autonomous Republic of Georgia, is located on the Black Sea coast in northwest Georgia. Its capital is the coastal city of Sukhumi, which is close to Sochi, a health resort in southern Russia. During the Soviet period, Stalin and other leaders built villas in Sochi. Economically, Sukhumi was the main producing area of tea and citrus in Russia and the Soviet Union. Abkhazia and the Black Sea coastal areas in southwestern Russia belong to a regional economic circle. In addition, Abkhazians converted to Christianity as early as the 6th century, and were influenced by Islam after the rise of the Ottoman Empire in 1 1 century, which brought them closer to the North Caucasus in history, language and culture. The economic and cultural exchanges between Abkhazia and Russia are far closer than those with Tbilisi, the center of Georgia's mountainous areas. Due to the long-term pro-Russian tendency of Abkhazians, Georgia often adopts repressive policies against them in language, culture and ethnic policies. Shortly after the disintegration of the Soviet Union and Georgia's independence, Abkhazia also declared its independence in July 1992, and the Georgian central government sent troops to station, which triggered an armed conflict that lasted for more than a year, causing tens of thousands of casualties and half of the residents fled their hometown. Under the mediation of Russia and the international community, the two parties to the conflict signed a ceasefire agreement in Moscow in May 1994. According to this agreement, Russian troops entered Abkhazia in the name of the CIS peacekeeping force. Since then, Russia has strengthened its ties with Abkhazia in various ways, such as simplifying the procedures for Abkhazians to join Russian nationality and reopening the railway to Sukhumi. Georgia imposed an economic blockade and embargo on Abkhazia. To this day, it is still an arena between Russia and Georgia.
One is South Ossetia, which has a love affair with Russia.
The close relationship between Ossetia and Russia is different from that of Abkhazia. Ossetia is divided into north and south. During the Soviet Union, North Ossetia was originally only a region of the Gor Autonomous Republic, but its status was constantly improved, and it was upgraded to an autonomous prefecture, an autonomous republic and a republic in 1924 and 1936 respectively. After the disintegration of the Soviet Union, North Ossetia was upgraded to a republic of the Russian Federation.
South Ossetia lags far behind its northern brothers in status. During the Soviet Union, although South Ossetia had autonomous status, it was only an autonomous prefecture of Georgia in administrative division. After independence, Georgia is still an autonomous prefecture. Therefore, South Ossetia has always sought an independent status equal to that of Georgia and is not under the jurisdiction of the Georgian central government. As early as 1989, South Ossetia had an open conflict with the Georgian government, which lasted until the summer of 1992, causing a large number of casualties. In the meantime, South Ossetia not only declared its independence in 1990 1 referendum, but also proposed to merge with the Russian Republic of North Ossetia. From June 65438 to June 0992, Russia, Georgia, South Ossetia and North Ossetia held talks on the peaceful settlement of armed conflicts and reached an agreement on a ceasefire, the establishment of a peacekeeping force and a supervisory committee. In July, a peacekeeping force of 1500, composed of Russia, Georgia and South Ossetia, established a security corridor on the border between South Ossetia and Georgia, effectively separating South Ossetia from Georgia. Considering the complicated international relations, Russia neither recognized the independence of South Ossetia nor supported its merger with North Ossetia, but kept close contact with it secretly. For example, most South Ossetians hold Russian passports, and rubles are widely circulated in the local area. In recent ten years, because South Ossetia secretly loves Russia, Russia and Georgia not only quarrel, but sometimes even threaten to use force.
And historical grievances.
In addition to the conflict of interests between Abkhazia and South Ossetia, there are historical reasons why the relationship between Russia and Georgia is difficult to straighten out. The relationship between them is extraordinary. Some scholars describe them as "former brothers" and "enemies" today. Georgians established their own country earlier than Russia. However, by the first half of the19th century, Georgia was annexed by tsarist Russia. After the October Revolution, Georgia once declared its independence, but it was quickly occupied by the Soviet Red Army. 192 1 In February, Georgia established the Soviet Socialist Republic, and in March, 1922, it joined the Transcaucasian Soviet Socialist Federation, and at the end of the same year, it joined the Soviet Union as a federal member. 1936 65438+In February, Georgia was upgraded to join the Soviet Union. Many important Soviet leaders, including Stalin, came from Georgia. Georgia was conquered by Russia and belonged to the Soviet Union, but Georgians have always been worried about independence. Therefore, before the disintegration of the Soviet Union, Georgia issued a declaration of independence on June 4th 1990 and 165438+ and renamed it "Republic of Georgia", and officially declared its independence on April 9th 199 1. In order to erase the shadow of the past,1The new Georgian Constitution adopted in August 1995 named the country "Georgia". After independence, Georgia actively moved closer to the west.
Another big country's gambling table.
There are also broader national factors that affect Russia-Georgia relations, that is, Georgia is actually a "gambling disk" of the game between western powers and Russia. Georgia is a small country, but geopolitics is very important. Western countries regard it as a base to squeeze and contain Russia's strategic space from the south, while Russia, which has lost its traditional spheres of influence such as Central and Eastern Europe, the Balkans and the Baltic Sea, will certainly not easily let the wishful thinking of the West succeed. The great power struggle is embodied in Georgia, which is an endless political struggle between pro-Russian and pro-Western factions. Behind the so-called "color revolution" in 2003 and the large-scale anti-government demonstrations in 2007, we can see the shadow of western countries and Russia. In order to squeeze Russia, after two rounds of eastward expansion in 1997 and 2002, NATO began to brew a third round of eastward expansion this year. One of its main targets is Georgia, where nearly 73% of the people want to join NATO. If Georgia and Ukraine join again, NATO will push its forward position to the southwest and south of Russia, forming an encirclement in the southwest. Russia was deeply affected by the crisis and reacted strongly, which was considered as a "danger signal". Therefore, it not only shows its strength by resuming the routine combat duty flights of long-range strategic bombers over the Atlantic Ocean, the Arctic Ocean, the Pacific Ocean, the Black Sea and the Arctic, but also threatens NATO and Georgia by increasing peacekeeping troops to Abkhazia and supporting the independence of South Ossetia. Now it seems that neither NATO nor Russia will give in, the game will continue, and the relationship between Georgia and Russia will be more difficult to get along with in the case of internal and external troubles.
At present, it seems that it is difficult for Russia-Georgia relations to be fundamentally improved for the time being, but it is unlikely that they will be completely broken and all-out war will break out. Georgia has close economic ties with Russia, especially in the supply of basic energy such as electricity, oil and natural gas. Russia is now seeking to join the WTO, of which Georgia is already a member. Russia cannot but care. The situation in Transcaucasia is more complicated, and the relationship between major powers reflected here is also very complicated. For their own security and interests, Russia, western powers and Georgia will not simply act, and the disharmony between Russia and Georgia will continue. (Kong Han Bing/World Knowledge Magazine)