Model essay on criminal psychotherapy: the new progress of statistical techniques in criminal psychotherapy Abstract This paper makes an in-depth investigation and introduction of new statistical techniques in the field of criminal psychotherapy abroad, focusing on the newly developed statistical techniques & mdash& ampmdashROC curve and logistic linear regression model, which are of great reference and promotion to the accuracy of criminal appraisal conclusions.
Keywords logistic linear regression model; ROC curve of criminal psychological correction
Fund Project: China University of Political Science and Law 20 1 1 research results of the educational reform project "Case Study of Criminal Psychological Correction".
About the author: Zheng Hongli, School of Social Studies, China University of Political Science and Law.
China Library ClassificationNo.: D9 16 Document IdentificationNo.: Part ANo.:1009-0592 (2013) 05-236-02.
The course of criminal psychology correction is a practical course with a high degree of combination of law and psychology, and it is also a course that students may need to apply directly after leaving school. However, the current curriculum of criminal psychological correction in China lacks operational content, which is seriously out of touch with foreign new technologies and methods. The author intends to introduce the latest statistical technology in the field of criminal correction abroad in recent years into the classroom to improve the operability and effectiveness of students' practical work in the future.
First, the particularity of the evaluation conclusion of criminal psychological correction
Generally speaking, the psychological treatment of criminals today should at least achieve the following goals: identify groups with high possibility of committing crimes through the early behavioral precursors of specific individuals, obtain predictive information, and then apply these information to criminal justice decisions, such as conviction or release. As Andrews and Bonta (2003) said, this recognition or pre-function is to get a statistical or accurate prediction index, and to predict crimes and choose corresponding countermeasures under the guidance of objective evidence. Therefore, the related statistical analysis technology is particularly important. However, different from general psychological statistics, the process of making prediction conclusions in criminal psychological correction is more like the medical diagnosis process of "whether the patient is sick" In addition, with the improvement of knowledge level and the development of statistical technology, people have realized that the "conclusion" of predicting the risk of criminals' recidivism is no longer just a process of judging according to the preset "absolute demarcation point", but a process of finally making a "diagnosis" through the "risk decision" procedure. There are actually only two kinds of diagnosis conclusions: high risk or low risk. Accordingly, criminals actually belong to two kinds of people: they will commit another crime in the future or they will not commit another crime. From this, we can get the following 2X2 contingency table (table 1):
Table 1. 2X2 prediction accuracy table
It can be seen from the table 1 that after the criminal psychological correction evaluator makes a "high-risk" or "low-risk" diagnosis conclusion for a criminal, there will be four situations: in fact, the recidivism is correctly diagnosed as high-risk, that is, true positive (TP); In fact, no recidivist was misdiagnosed as high risk, that is, false positive (FP); In fact, recidivism is misdiagnosed as low risk, that is, false negative (FN); In fact, those who don't commit crimes again are correctly diagnosed as low risk, that is, true negative (TN). This data form is the research object of typical signal detection theory (SDT).
Secondly, the theory of signal detection and the application of ROC curve.
The theory of signal detection first appeared in the field of radar detection, that is, with the help of statistical methods, it helps radar to effectively distinguish "signal" from "background noise" (Leshowitz, 1969). After the strong promotion of World War II, the theory of signal detection and its corresponding technologies and methods have been greatly improved and popularized, and gradually extended to other application fields after the war, such as pharmaceutical industry, non-invasive detection, information retrieval, product inspection, investigation and research, and clinical psychology (Swets, 1996). In recent years, researchers began to try to introduce signal detection theory into the field of criminal psychological correction (for example, mosman,1994; Ward & ampDockerill,1999; Grimbert flug company. Tenstrom, 2000; Andrews & Bonta, 2003).
The important discovery of signal detection theory is that when people make a "yes" or "no" diagnosis, they actually include two processes: identification and decision-making. Therefore, it is not a valuable method to simply use the overall accuracy rate to express the accuracy of the conclusion of criminal risk assessment, and we should seek those data indicators that can reflect the level of discrimination and decision-making at the same time. There are many kinds of such indicators, but ROC is still internationally recognized as the most widely used indicator (Arian, 1998, Yu Chuanhua, 2000). The so-called ROC is called the operating characteristic curve of subjects in English, and it is also called the relative operating characteristic curve, or ROC for short. See figure 1 for details.
Simpson and Fitter (1 973) put forward "the area under the curve ROC curve (AUC, abbreviated as A) as the index of diagnostic accuracy" for the ROC curve with the hit rate as the Y axis and the false alarm rate as the X axis. The range of AUC is 0 to 1, and the larger the value, the better the diagnostic accuracy or judgment ability. Yu Chuanhua (2002) thinks that the diagnostic value of AUC above 0.9 is high, the diagnostic value of AUC above 0.7-0.9 is medium, and the diagnostic value of AUC below 0.7 is low. For example, the AUC value of the ROC curve in the figure is 0.67, which has poor diagnostic accuracy and no diagnostic value.
Third, the current development trend
It is precisely because of the introduction of signal detection theory into the field of criminal psychological correction that we have a new understanding of the formation process of criminal evaluation conclusions: with the improvement of human ability to understand and solve problems, especially the rapid development of statistical technology, criminal evaluation technology is no longer a simple clinical diagnosis process, but introduces concepts such as risk management and probability, and uses powerful statistical methods to make decision-making behaviors of final diagnosis conclusions.
First of all, the evaluation conclusion is made no longer by personal subjective experience, but by means of research, analysis and statistics, and reliable predictive factors (predictive variables) are screened out from huge and complex data, and finally a relatively stable and accurate diagnostic statistical model is formed. The typical equation involved in general diagnosis and prediction is: response variable = g (predictive variable, parameter, random noise).
Among them, the response variable is also the dependent variable Y. In criminal evaluation, Y has only two values and is a binary variable. Y= 1 If the evaluation conclusion is "high risk" for criminals, y=0 represents "low risk". Predictive variables are also independent variables X. For Equation G, we generally assume that it is a variable with k predictive variables x=(x 1, x2, x3,&; Hellip, xk) logistic linear regression model, so this model can be expressed as a more typical equation:
score(x)= 0+ 1x 1+2 x2+3x 3+& amp； hellip+ kxk
Through the statistical analysis of existing materials or data, or the investigation and analysis of polygraph experts' polygraph experience, we can get some regression models with good statistical prediction ability, such as M4 and M5. See Table 2 for specific data.
Based on these two diagnosis models, the risk of criminals is assessed and the final diagnosis conclusion is made. Mdash& ampmdash "high risk" or "low risk". Then, by comparing the actual recidivism or not, the corresponding "hit rate" and "missing rate" are calculated. After repeated for many times, several pairs of "hit rate" and "false alarm rate" data can be obtained, and the ROC curves corresponding to the two diagnostic models can be drawn accordingly. The results are shown in Figure 2.
Table 2
Note: The dependent variable is the score (x)
Convert the above data into a specific diagnostic linear regression model as follows
M4: the score (x) = 3.8+3.1x1+2.4x2.1x 3+2.6x4+1.4x5;
M5: the score (x) = 5.4+4.3x1+2.7x2+2.2x3.
Fig. 2 ROC curves of M4 and M5 models drawn according to actual data.
From Figure 2, we can intuitively know that the diagnosis model M4(AUC=0.944) should be more accurate than the diagnosis model M5(AUC=0.78). Grove et al. conducted a meta-analysis of 136 related studies and found that this evaluation method is superior to the traditional clinical evaluation method (Grove et al., 2000).
References:
Andrews district attorney. Bonta. Psychology of Criminal Behavior, Third Edition. Cincinnati, Ohio: Anderson. 2003.
[2] Leshowitz B. Compare the ROC curves of one and two interval rating scale programs. Journal of the American Acoustical Society. 1969(46)。
[3] Sweets, J. Signal Retention Theory and ROC Analysis in Psychology and Diagnostics. Mahwa, New Jersey: Lawrence Elbaum Society. 1996.
[4] Yu Chuanhua. ROC analysis method and its application in medical research. China Excellent Doctoral Dissertation Full-text Database (Doctoral Degree) .2000.
[5] Ariane van Elkel. ROC analysis: basic principle and its application in radiology. European journal of radiology. 1998(27)。
Simpson, AJ & amp； Fitter, MJ. What is the best indicator of detectability? Psychological bulletin. 1973(80).
[7] edited by Yu. Medical statistics. People's Health Publishing House. 2002.
[8] Grove, W.M., Zade, D.H., Lebo, B.S., Snitz, B.E., & Nelson Angle ... Clinical prediction and mechanical prediction: a meta-analysis. Psychological evaluation. 2000( 12).
Fan Wen-er: Localization and perfection of criminal psychological correction Abstract Criminal psychological correction is the research result of criminal psychology applying psychological principles and methods in educational reform and education rescue in prison reeducation-through-labor institutions. Through the psychological test and psychological evaluation of criminal reeducation through labor, we can master the individual psychological structure characteristics of criminal reeducation through labor, carry out mental health education, psychological consultation and psychotherapy, help criminal reeducation through labor eliminate bad psychology and other psychological obstacles and mental diseases, and promote the benign psychological structure. At present, psychological correction of criminals is regarded as the fourth major means of criminal reform besides prison management, education reform and labor reform. Before the 1960s, with the development of various schools of psychology in the world, psychological correction was applied to the criminal reform system and flourished. After 1960s, it was refrigerated due to its own limitations. However, after practice and development, it gradually recovered in the 1980 s and is now developing rapidly. In China, since 1990s, psychological correction has gradually developed in the prison system. The author studies the value of psychological correction in the reform of criminals, as well as the current theoretical research and implementation status and existing problems in this field in China. On this basis, drawing lessons from some advanced foreign theories and practical experiences, and combining with China's relevant social and cultural values and other basic national conditions, some ideas and suggestions for improving the system are drawn.
Keywords criminals; Psychological correction; Reform criminals; Implementation status quo
First, the concept and present situation of criminal psychological correction.
(A) the concept of criminal psychological correction
Worldwide, psychological rehabilitation plays an important role in the reform of criminals, and has become an important means for prisons to reform criminals, and theoretical research in this field has emerged one after another. Foreign countries, especially developed countries, have conducted in-depth research on this issue and applied it well in prison practice. Since this model was introduced into China in 1980s, many domestic scholars have studied the application of this theory in practice, mainly involving the current situation of psychological correction in the reform of prison criminals in China and the exploration of relevant countermeasures for existing problems.
The premise of the first study is to define its concept accurately. According to China's specific national conditions, "psychological correction of criminals" can be defined as: in the process of educating and reforming criminals, prison reeducation-through-labor institutions use psychological principles and methods to directly introduce the research results of criminal psychology, grasp the individual psychological structure characteristics of criminals through psychological tests and psychological assessments, and carry out mental health education, psychological counseling and psychotherapy with scientific methods to help criminals get rid of bad psychology.
The psychological correction of criminals is based on a certain philosophy. The existence of human reason and consciousness, the basic personality factors of kindness and the existence of repentance provide a human foundation for the psychological correction of criminals. The special preventive measures taken against the individual factors of crime are mainly based on the individual reasons of crime, through life guidance, psychotherapy and desire restraint, to transform and eliminate the defects and contradictions that are incompatible between individuals and society, so as to prevent some individuals from embarking on the road of illegal crime. Punishment itself has no meaning, and it is only valuable for correcting and educating criminals. It believes that punishment is justified only if it is carried out within the limits necessary to prevent crime.
(B) the status and role of criminal psychological correction
1, the position of psychological correction in the reform of criminals. The status of psychological correction in the reform of criminals is related to the promotion and popularization of psychological correction in prison system. There are several views on the current situation of psychological correction of criminals in China: First, psychological correction is considered to be one of the basic means to reform criminals independent of traditional reform means such as prison management, labor reform and education reform; Second, it is considered that psychological correction of criminals is an important part of modern criminal education reform system, and it is the deepening and development of prison education reform in China in the new period. It is a relatively independent working method and plays an irreplaceable role. Thirdly, it is considered that psychological correction of criminals is a comprehensive method and means to supervise and reform criminals. According to a series of documents such as "Regulations on Prison Education Reform" and "Outline of Criminal Education Reform" promulgated by the Ministry of Justice, the author thinks that psychological correction of criminals is an important part of modern criminal education reform system, and it is the deepening and development of prison education reform in China in the new period. It is a relatively independent working method and plays an irreplaceable role.
2. The importance of psychological correction in the reform of criminals. Using psychological correction to reform criminals has become the focus of prison science and practice. It is of great theoretical and practical significance to develop and improve psychological correction in the reform of criminals.
The theoretical importance of (1). The theoretical research of psychological correction started late in China, and it is still in its infancy, which is far from meeting the needs of practice. The development of this theoretical work will further deepen the research on psychological correction of criminals in China and improve and enrich the theoretical system of prison criminals' reform. In addition, it will be beneficial to the development of prison reform discipline.
(2) The importance of practice. Psychological correction plays a very important role in the practice of criminal reform. First of all, from the criminal's point of view, psychological correction can meet the criminal's psychological recovery and development needs, make up for the psychological deficiency, make it adapt to the requirements of society and realize its own development. Secondly, from the point of view of prison police, the use of psychological correction to reform criminals is conducive to improving the self-care quality and professional ability of police officers, improving their own development, enabling them to complete their tasks efficiently in their work and achieve higher social value. Thirdly, from the prison's point of view, under the goal of realizing the prison function, using psychological correction will make the reform task more targeted, suit the remedy to the case, greatly improve the quality and efficiency of work, and be conducive to building a humanized and civilized prison. Finally, from the point of view of the country and society, with the deepening of internationalization, China's execution system and criminal education and reform model are constantly influenced by foreign execution trends. At present, the international execution trend has shifted from "retributive justice" to "restorative justice". The trend of implementing psychological correction for criminals to adapt to the international execution system conforms to the requirements of the times. In addition, the implementation of psychological correction will eradicate the causes of crime from the minds of criminals, which is conducive to the realization of the "first standard" and the security and stability of the whole society.
Second, the development and existing problems of criminal psychological correction in China
(A) the emergence and development of criminal psychological correction in China.
The work of psychological correction for criminals in China started later than that in developed countries, and it is now in its infancy. In the early days of reform and opening-up, psychological analysis of criminals was involved, but in the early 1990s, due to the reform and opening-up, the crime rate in China reached four or five climaxes, which led to a sharp increase in the number of criminals in prisons. With the improvement of the requirements for the reform of criminals and the increasing popularity of psychological knowledge, the psychological correction of criminals is gradually recognized by people.
From 198 1 Summary of the Eighth National Conference on Reform-through-Labor Work, the theoretical circle began to study the application of scientific knowledge such as psychology to reform criminals. In June, 1983, the professional committee of legal psychology of Chinese Psychological Association was announced. Subsequently, many provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the Central Government also set up corresponding academic groups to carry out legal psychology research in an organized and planned way. Legal psychologists' exploration of the theory of criminal psychological correction includes both qualitative theoretical discussion and quantitative empirical research. (2) The main problems existing in the psychological correction of criminals in China.
1. The orientation of criminal psychological correction is vague, the understanding is not in place, and the attention is not enough.
First of all, the leaders themselves do not pay enough attention to it, and the degree of attention is lacking. Psychological correction of criminals has not been included in the important content of prison reform and has not played its guiding role. Secondly, most of the internal staff of prison management organs have established the traditional concept of prison reform, unwilling to accept new things, and have exclusion psychology. Even people who don't have this kind of psychological resistance will doubt it, thinking that this method is costly, slow and inefficient, so they will take the initiative to avoid using this method, thus hindering the development of correction work; Thirdly, the academic circles have different opinions on the concept of criminal psychological correction and whether its position in prison can be replaced, which greatly affects the promotion and popularization of criminal psychological correction; Finally, criminals themselves have insufficient understanding of psychological correction, which is easy to associate with psychotherapy and refuse to accept psychotherapy.
2. The criminal psychological correction system is not standardized.
At present, the psychological correction of criminals in China is characterized by fragmentation, passivity and spontaneity. There is no unified guiding standard and normative model in the whole country, and the degree of coordination and cooperation between regions is low, the system is not perfect and the content is not clear. The specific performance is as follows:
(1) There are loopholes in the organization and rules and regulations. There are basically four levels of psychological correction institutions for criminals in China, including provinces, prisons, prison areas and internal groups of criminals. This kind of mechanism seems to be complete, but there are shortcomings in actual operation. First of all, the provincial prison administration did not understand the actual situation of the prison when designing the psychological correction guidance for criminals, and the theory and practice were out of touch in the process of cooperation. Secondly, the identity of the management members of the organization is vague, and there is a contradiction between the disciplinarian and the psychological corrector, which not only brings them confusion, but also makes the criminals afraid to show their feelings easily because they have a sense of distance from the criminals, and the correction effect is not obvious.
(2) Lack of high-quality professional team. Psychological correction is aimed at the psychological problems of criminals, which requires professional psychologists to carry out psychological correction, help criminals overcome psychological obstacles and psychological problems during serving their sentences, and promote the benign transformation of criminal psychological quality. According to the statistics in 2004, 765,438+0% of the prison staff in our country are policemen who were originally engaged in correctional work, and most of them became monks halfway. By attending psychological training courses and obtaining the professional qualification certificate of psychological counselors, they have obtained the basic qualification of psychological correction, which will lead to many problems in their work: First, the professional role orientation of the people's police leads to contradictions with criminals, and criminals are prone to fear and resistance. Besides, the police. Second, the prison police's own psychological knowledge and technology level is difficult to adapt to psychological correction work; Third, the correction power is single and weak, and the task of criminal psychological correction is heavy, which makes the work in a situation of coping and becoming a mere formality.
Third, summary.
As can be seen from the above, on the one hand, we should pay more attention to and popularize psychological correction, regularly train the internal staff of prison institutions in relevant aspects, and at the same time let criminals and staff establish a correct understanding; On the other hand, it is necessary to improve the organizational structure and rules and regulations to make them play their roles efficiently and effectively. At the same time, a high-quality professional team should be established to study and correct criminals' psychology, so as to effectively change criminals' psychological problems and maintain social stability.
References:
[1] By Di Xiaohua. Introduction to criminal psychological correction, People's Publishing House, 2004, 15.
[2] Zhang Enyou. Psychological Correction of Crime, China Democracy and Legal System Publishing House, September 2007.
[3] Wu Zongxian. Prisoners take care of themselves in China, Law Press, 2004: 78 pages.