I. Company Profile
Code: 600050
Industry: Telecom service industry
Abbreviation: China Unicom.
Capital stock: structure (ten thousand shares)
Total share capital: 2 1 19659.64.
A shares in circulation: 650,000 shares
State-owned legal person shares: 1469659.64
Controlling shareholder: China United Communications Co., Ltd.: the shareholding ratio is 69.33%.
Main business: local telephone service; Mobile communication, wireless paging and satellite communication services (excluding satellite space segment); Data communication service, Internet service and IP telephone service; Telecom value-added services; Import and export business approved by the competent foreign trade department of the state; Other businesses permitted or entrusted by the state.
Second, the industry prospect and industry status analysis
In recent ten years, China telecom operators have formed a relatively stable competition pattern through a series of reforms such as splitting, restructuring and listing, and competition has promoted the rapid growth of telecom services. According to relevant data, in 2004, mobile voice occupied the largest share in China telecom market, exceeding 50%, up 23% year-on-year, and the revenue growth rate of mobile data service was 82.7%. From 2005 to 2007, the income from mobile services may become the mainstream income in China telecom market. Mobile data revenue will account for 18%-20% of total revenue, or even more. Therefore, the prospect of the telecommunications industry can still be optimistic.
Recently, China Unicom is in a relatively weak position among the four major telecom operators. However, due to the government's policy support in previous years, China Unicom was able to maintain a faster growth rate than China Mobile until the end of last year. With the government's cancellation of some restrictions on China Mobile and the development of PHS services of China Telecom and China Netcom in full swing, China Unicom is facing increasing competitive pressure. Judging from the number of new users, the monthly number of new users of China Mobile has increased from about 2 million at the end of last year to about 3 million now. China Unicom's GSM monthly new users are basically stable at about 800,000, while China Unicom's CDMA monthly new users have dropped from about 1 100 to about 700,000 now. Therefore, in terms of the number of new users, the gap between China Unicom and China Mobile is getting bigger and bigger, especially in carrying capacity.
3G service is a new opportunity for the whole mobile communication industry, but it may mean a new challenge for China Unicom. This is because with China Telecom and China Netcom entering the mobile communication field, China Unicom will face the impact of more competitors, so it is difficult for the author to give a positive evaluation on the future business growth of China Unicom, especially the business growth. On the other hand, it is still possible to restructure the domestic telecom industry, and the government may also provide new policy support to China Unicom. There is still considerable uncertainty about the future development of China Unicom.
Third, the company's operating conditions analysis
In the first three quarters of this year, the company completed the main business income of 5310.70 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.0%. Among them, the main business income of GSM mobile telephone service was 32.94 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of14.5%; The main business income of CDMA mobile telephone service was 65.438+0.708 billion yuan, up 53. 1% year-on-year, accounting for 34.1%of the main business income of mobile phones. The main business income of long distance, data and Internet services was 36,543.8+0.4 billion yuan, down 4.65,438+0% compared with the same period of last year.
Careful analysis of the quarterly report of the third quarter shows that China Unicom (600050) seems to have increased in the first three quarters of this year compared with the same period of last year, but the competitive pressure it faces is increasing. According to the quarterly report, the sales revenue of China Unicom in the first three quarters was 5310.70 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.0%. However, since last year's quarterly report only contained business data of 2 1 province and city, this year's report added business data of 9 provinces and cities merged at the end of last year, so the actual growth rate of Unicom's business is not so high. As can be seen from the semi-annual report, China Unicom's current business income growth rate has been overtaken by China Mobile. According to the quarterly report of China Mobile, the revenue growth rate of the same caliber business in the first three quarters (2 1 province) was 12.9%, so we expect that the growth rate of the same caliber sales revenue of China Unicom should also be around 13%.
In terms of profit indicators, we found that the gap between China Unicom and China Mobile is widening, and Unicom's net profit even showed negative growth in the third quarter. According to the quarterly report, the net profit of China Unicom in 30 provinces and cities in the third quarter was 696 million, which was nearly 1 billion, or 12.2% lower than the net profit of 793 million in the same period last year. In fact, as far as the growth rate of net profit of 30 provinces and cities with the same caliber is concerned, the net profit of China Unicom in the first half of the year has shown a downward trend. For example, the semi-annual report revealed that China Unicom's net profit in the first half of the year was only 49.8% of last year, while China Mobile's net profit in the first half of the year reached 53% of last year.
Therefore, we can only be cautiously optimistic about the business prospects of China Unicom.
Fourth, the secondary market performance analysis
Since China Unicom hit a high of 5.36 yuan at the beginning of February this year (the highest price after the rights issue was 5. 12 yuan), the stock has been in the process of value regression, reaching a minimum of 2.43 yuan, with a maximum drop of more than 50%, and there is much room for rebound. Since the beginning of this year, the share price has been fluctuating around the matching price 3 yuan, and most tradable shareholders, including institutional investors, are locked in. Based on the closing price of 65438+February 30th, the current dynamic P/E ratio is about 20 times. Recently, the stock price has been running upward, indicating that funds are collected at a low level. Judging from its position in the secondary market, the current circulating market value of this stock is as high as 654.38+09.5 billion yuan, accounting for 8.3% of the total circulating market value of the 50 sample stocks of the Shanghai Stock Exchange, and it is the first heavyweight stock of the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index. With the issuance of SSE 50ETF fund and the gradual opening of positions, this stock will become an important bargaining chip for institutions.
Verb (abbreviation of verb) conclusion
At present, the company is the only listed telecom operator in China, and its telecom industry still has great development potential. However, China Unicom does not have obvious advantages in the industry and its development prospects can only be cautiously optimistic.
From the analysis of its secondary market trend and its secondary market position, the stock is currently in a state of oversold in the middle line, and the potential band rebound space is at least above 20%. It is recommended that investors with lighter positions absorb in batches on dips and enter and exit the band.
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