1999165438+10/5. China and the United States reached a bilateral agreement on China's accession to the WTO. On May 9, 2000, China and Europe reached a win-win agreement. So far, China has reached bilateral agreements with 27 of the 36 countries that want to join the WTO together with China. After that, China also needs to negotiate with Switzerland, Mexico, Ecuador and two other Latin American countries, the most important of which are Switzerland and Mexico. After reaching an agreement with these five countries, they will soon enter the multilateral negotiations in Geneva. On the basis of all bilateral agreements, China's commitments to all contracting parties will be unified into a multilateral framework, which will be adopted by a two-thirds majority at the WTO Ministerial Conference.
The advantages of China's entry into the WTO outweigh the disadvantages.
Generally speaking, China's accession to the WTO will expand China's import and export trade.
It is estimated that by 2005, China's total import and export trade will increase by nearly 30%, and its average annual growth rate will still be higher than GDP growth rate; The contribution of import and export trade to GDP will increase; The trade balance between import and export will decrease year by year, and will basically reach a balance by 2005.
From the perspective of agricultural products trade, China's agricultural products export will gain many development opportunities. The competitive advantage of China's agricultural products in the world market depends to some extent on its inherent comparative advantage, that is, you have a certain market share without me. In addition, after joining the WTO, China can enjoy the universal treatment of WTO members, which will help improve the export environment, expand export channels, and further increase exports. China's accession to the WTO will greatly increase its imports of agricultural products, especially wheat, corn and other grains. The reasons are as follows: First, since 1995, China's grain has completely lost its price advantage. Among them, the price of wheat has been higher than the international market by 28%; The plant height of maize is 71.1%; Rice 17.8% is high. Second, the US export subsidies for grain further reduce the competitiveness of China's grain products, and with the lifting of China's ban on wheat imports in the northwest of the United States, it can be expected that the grain imports from the United States will increase substantially. Third, the import quota has increased a lot compared with the actual import volume in the past. By 2005, the quotas of wheat, corn and rice will reach 9.3 million tons, 7.2 million tons and 5.3 million tons respectively, while the actual average import of wheat, corn and rice is only 68 1.8 million tons, 853,000 tons and 534,000 tons. Fourthly, after China's accession to the WTO, part of the annual import quota must be allocated to the private sector. Under this condition, as long as the international market price is lower than the domestic market price, the government can no longer control the import quantity below the quota by traditional methods through the monopoly position of the state-owned foreign trade department. In addition, after China's entry into WTO, the average tariff of agricultural products will be reduced from 22% to 17.5% (except duty-free grain, cotton and oil, the general tariff rate of agricultural products in China is 50%-70%, and the high tariff rate is above 100%), which is a great drop. In this way, the greater the protection of products in the past, the greater the increase in imports.
From the perspective of textile trade, after China's entry into WTO, China will benefit from the implementation of the Agreement on Textiles and Clothing signed in Uruguay Round, and its exports will increase rapidly. It is predicted that by 2005, China's textile exports will increase by 63.8%, while clothing exports will triple. Then, China will continue to maintain its position as the largest exporter of textiles and clothing among developing countries in the next century. China chemical fiber industry started late. Because of its weak foundation and weak competitiveness, it still relies on the protection of high tariff policy. Therefore, China's accession to the WTO may increase the import of chemical fiber products.
From the perspective of steel products trade, during the Uruguay Round negotiations, China made commitments on tariff concessions, non-tariff barriers, trade rights of steel products, and gradually put them into practice. Generally speaking, China promises to reduce the tariff rate of metallurgical products from the current 10.5% to 8.0% in 2005, which will have little impact on steel imports, because the tariff rate of 223 major steel products in China will be reduced from 1992- 1998. In addition, judging from the trade structure of China's imported steel products, processing trade accounts for more than half in recent years, and this part of steel products imports is subject to zero tax rate. Therefore, tariff preference will not significantly change the import situation of the steel industry. From the aspect of export, since China's steel products export enjoys preferential tariff rates in most countries, the existing tariff concessions of other members will not significantly increase the export growth of China's steel products after China's entry into WTO. In terms of non-tariff barriers, China has promised to cancel the quota license of steel products in the Memorandum of Understanding on Market Access between China and the United States 1992, and will not impose any quantitative restrictions on imported steel in principle. It can be seen that the abolition of non-tariff barriers has little impact on the import and export of the steel industry. In terms of trade rights, China promised to cancel the approved operation of steel products within five years after its accession to the World Trade Organization, and enterprises with foreign trade rights can engage in steel trade thereafter. From this perspective, it may increase the difficulty for the government to control imports.
From the perspective of petrochemical products trade, the impact of China's accession to the World Trade Organization on the import and export of products in China's petroleum and petrochemical industry shows great differences in various sub-industries. From the perspective of crude oil, the price of crude oil in China has been in line with the international market price in June 1998, and the import tariff of crude oil is fixed. Therefore, tariff concessions have little impact on its imports. For synthetic fibers, the nominal import tariff of synthetic fiber raw materials and intermediates is generally 10%- 16%, but the provisional tariff for most imported synthetic fiber raw materials is 3%-5%. So reducing tariffs has little effect on their imports. The oil refining industry will be the most affected. Due to the lack of international competitiveness of enterprises in this industry and the fact that we have been implementing the quota licensing system for refined oil products, if the quota licensing system is phased out within five years after China's accession to the WTO, the quota will increase by 15% every year on the basis of initial access (calculated by import volume 1998, the initial access for refined oil products is19.8 million tons).
From the trade of mechanical and electrical products, the overall impact of tariff reduction on the import and export of mechanical and electrical products in China is limited. Because China has started to reduce import tariffs on mechanical and electrical products, the tariff level of some products is close to the standards set by the World Trade Organization. The cancellation of non-tariff restrictions has a greater impact on the import of mechanical and electrical products than other industries. However, with the strengthening of the competitiveness of the electromechanical industry and the expansion of the product market of foreign-invested enterprises, the substitution pressure of foreign electromechanical products is also increasing, and the impact of canceling non-tariff measures may be weakened.
From the perspective of automobile trade, China's automobile industry has the highest degree of import protection. With the sharp reduction of tariff and non-tariff barriers, the import of automobile products and software and hardware technologies needed for the development of the automobile industry will increase substantially, and it is estimated that the output level of China's automobile industry will decrease by 1 1%. Large multinational companies will enter China's automobile industry by virtue of their great advantages in technology and capital, and monopolize some key industries in China's automobile industry. During the five-year transition period, the price of imported cars dropped by 2%-3% every year on average. It is preliminarily estimated that the domestic market share of imported products will increase from the current 3% to about 10%.
From the trade of information products, after China's accession to the World Trade Organization, the import and export trade of such products will increase to varying degrees. Although we can't overestimate the role of zero tariff in promoting the import of this kind of products in 2005, it is still possible to achieve an average annual import growth of 10%. In addition, since the trade of information technology products in China is mostly processing trade, reducing tariffs means that raw materials can be imported from abroad at lower prices, thus reducing costs, enhancing the international competitiveness of such products and expanding exports. It is estimated that the average annual export growth rate can also reach about 7%.
After joining the WTO, China still has a long way to go.
In order to improve the international competitiveness of our products, further expand import and export trade, and adapt to the new situation of China's accession to the WTO, we must make the following efforts:
First, actively occupy and expand the international market. On the one hand, we should pay close attention to the quality of export products, actively adopt product quality standards recognized by the international market, actively promote the revision and improvement of national standards and industry standards, and enhance the market competitiveness of products. At the same time, implement brand strategy, actively develop products with their own characteristics, and strive to occupy the international market with brand-name products. On the other hand, we should implement diversified market strategies. While continuing to aim at the traditional main sales market, we will actively promote the all-round and diversified export strategy and actively expand the international market.
Second, accelerate the pace of structural adjustment. Give priority to the development of a number of key products, focusing on supporting a number of short-board products with large market capacity, reflecting the strength and level of the industry, which are related to the national economy and people's livelihood and have a strong driving effect on the industry. Cut the long-term production of products with idle production capacity and market supply far exceeding market demand. Support a number of high-tech products. For emerging industries (such as environmental protection equipment, etc. The original foundation is weak, so we should seize the favorable opportunity of rising domestic market demand, give full play to the role of existing assets, improve the ability of technological innovation, focus on developing production and promote China's industrial upgrading.
Third, speed up the process of industrial internationalization, develop large enterprise groups, and improve the international competitiveness of enterprises. After China's entry into the World Trade Organization, China's industries should not only meet the requirements of the socialist market economy, but also fully enter the international market in accordance with the provisions of the World Trade Organization. Therefore, we must intensify the reform of industrial system, push enterprises to the international market, and increase the export proportion of state-owned enterprises.
Fourth, reform the scientific and technological management system and mechanism, intensify technological innovation, and finally form proprietary technology and core technology with independent intellectual property rights. The key point of scientific and technological innovation lies in the innovation of management system and mechanism, which can improve the transformation rate of scientific and technological achievements and shorten the transformation period. Promoting the upgrading of industrial structure with technological progress. In a short transition period, the competitiveness of the industry will reach the level of self-protection for large foreign companies.
Fifth, protect markets and industries in accordance with international practices and safeguard the interests of enterprises and the state. All countries in the world, without exception, use the WTO's exception clauses, international practices and infant industry protection principles to protect their own markets and industries. After China's accession to the World Trade Organization, it should also make full use of the preferential conditions provided by the above principles and practices, and formulate relevant laws and regulations as soon as possible, so as to protect domestic industries by legal means when they are impacted.