Dessert, also called dessert, is a very broad concept, which can be roughly divided into sweet snacks and Cantonese syrup. Dessert is usually not regarded as dinner, but is usually a snack in afternoon tea. How to study this topic?
I. Contents and research significance of graduation project (thesis) 1. Research background
China stock market started relatively late, and started to develop from 1990. By 2009, China's stock market had experienced a history of 19, so both the theory of securities investment and the development of the stock market lagged behind the developed countries. Nevertheless, many China scholars still use their advanced foreign theories to make an empirical study on China's securities market, which has played a positive role in promoting the healthy development of China's securities market. By the end of June 5438+ 10, 2009, the total issued share capital had reached 2,577,089 million shares (including193,463.9 million shares in circulation), with a total market value of 21589,205,438+000 billion yuan (including10) China stock market has become an irreplaceable part of China's economic development and the reform of state-owned enterprises, and an important way for China's individuals and institutions to invest.
Due to the late start of China's securities market, both the development of the securities market and the application of investment theory lag behind developed countries. Nevertheless, many China scholars have made an empirical study of China's securities market by using the advanced foreign theories they have mastered, summed up the operating rules of China's securities market, and played a positive role in promoting the benign development of China's securities market. Before analyzing the factors of stock price and stock return, we should first analyze which factors affect stock return and which factors play an important role in stock return, so it is necessary and urgent to study the influencing factors of stock return.
2. Research significance
The two specific objectives of investors' investment are to maximize the investment income under the given risk conditions and to minimize the risk under the given income conditions. For investors, the stock return rate is an important index for investment, so it is of far-reaching significance to study the influencing factors of stock return rate.
3. Research content
In this paper, the factors affecting the stock return rate of listed companies in China are taken as the research object, and various factors affecting the stock return rate of China are empirically tested and analyzed by using various methods combined with theoretical characteristics. Generally speaking, the impact on stock returns can be studied from macro, meso and micro aspects. In this paper, three important factors are selected for analysis. Select the inflation factor from the macro factors, the industry factor from the meso factors and the financial status of listed companies from the micro factors, so as to conduct an empirical study on them.
Second, the graduation project (thesis) research status and comments (literature review) 1, foreign research status.
In foreign stock market research, because it started earlier than our country, we have gained relatively mature experience and methods in investment analysis theory and practice. 1952, the American economist HarryMarkowitz[ 1] published "The Choice of Portfolio" in the financial magazine. The publication of this article marked the beginning of modern modern portfolio theory. In the theoretical circle, it is called the first financial revolution on Wall Street in the 20th century. This paper combines statistical knowledge with securities investment theory, uses quantitative statistical model to analyze the influencing factors of stock returns from different angles, and provides investors with theoretical knowledge on how to invest effectively and a method to identify whether securities pricing is reasonable. With the birth of modern portfolio theory, different schools of thought have been formed in the study of stock returns. For example, the basic analysis school takes the macroeconomic situation, industry characteristics and financial indicators of listed companies as the object of analyzing the influencing factors of stock returns and the basis of investment decisions; Behavioral analysis school holds that CAPM and EMH are the two cornerstones of modern financial theory.
2. Domestic research status.
Although China lags behind developed countries in the theory and application of securities investment, in recent years, domestic researchers have made a lot of attempts and studies on the influencing factors of stock returns. China's Influence on Stock Returns
The articles on influencing factors analysis mainly come from macro factors, micro factors, industry factors, systematic risks or non-systematic risks.
Shi Donghui, Chen Langnan, Yang Chaojun and Chen [2-5] applied CAPM model to domestic stock market and made an empirical test. The results are consistent and contrary, but most of them show that CAPM model is not suitable for China stock market.
Liu Zhixin and Huang Changli [6] applied Fama-French three-factor model to China stock market and made an empirical test. It is found that the reciprocal of the ratio of circulation market value to income price, that is, the price-earnings ratio, significantly explains the expected return, while? Value has no significant effect on the explanation of expected rate of return. Chen Xinyuan, Zhang Tianyu and Chen Donghua [7] obtained it in their research. In single-factor and multi-factor models, the coefficient has no significant effect on the explanation of stock return. In predicting stock returns, scale and book-to-market ratio have strong explanatory power. After controlling scale, the proportion of tradable shares shows strong explanatory power to stock returns. Fan longzhen
[8] Wang Haitao found in the study of stock returns that Fama-French three-factor model was added.
The P/E ratio factor can better explain the stock yield. Gu Juan and Ding Ying [9] found that there is no value growth effect in China stock market, and the basic aspects of listed companies have no significant predictive effect on stock returns. Day Gs and Mai Yuanxun used FM method and LR method to deal with the regression coefficient in the study of stock return, and came to the conclusion that scale effect, value effect and P/E ratio have significant influence on stock return. Liang Qi and Teng Jian [10] used multivariate VAR model to test the relationship between China stock market and economic growth.
3. Overview of research status at home and abroad.
Based on the research status at home and abroad, the research on the influencing factors of stock returns has been continuously improved in research content and updated in research methods, but there are still shortcomings. For example, the practical operation of Markowitz model theory is poor, which is limited in the process of investment practice. Compared with domestic research, foreign countries are more comprehensive, systematic and innovative in research direction, research content and research methods, which is worth studying and learning from at home. In the study of the factors that affect the rate of return due to inflation, Chinese scholars mainly focus on the Fisher effect model in the use of research models, and rarely carry out experimental analysis on other models; In terms of the influence of industry factors, Chinese scholars have relatively little research on this content, and the research methods are not rich enough, and there is no unified research result; On the factors of financial status of listed companies, the classification of financial indicators is not comprehensive enough, and most of them only pay attention to the profitability of listed companies, while ignoring indicators such as solvency and growth ability. Based on the experience and essence of predecessors, this paper makes theoretical and empirical analysis from three aspects: inflation, industry factors and financial situation of listed companies, and uses innovative models and a more comprehensive index system to study. In view of this study, the theoretical definition of influencing factors is added in theory, and the empirical method and object selection are more detailed and clear.
Iii. Graduation design (thesis) research plan and work plan (key and difficult points and methods to be adopted) 1. research project
(1) qualitative analysis method
Based on the comprehensive and systematic analysis and summary of the research results at home and abroad, this paper puts forward the theoretical content of this paper from three aspects: inflation theory, industry theory and financial situation theory of listed companies, and discusses the correlation between these three aspects and stock return rate.
(2) quantitative analysis method
Using regression analysis, correlation analysis and principal component analysis, this paper makes an empirical analysis from three aspects: inflation, industry factors and financial situation of listed companies.
(3) Empirical analysis method
Based on the establishment of mathematical model, this paper selects the relevant data of Shanghai Stock Exchange Index, uses econometric methods and statistical analysis software, such as EXCEL and SPSS, to make statistical analysis on the data.
This paper empirically tests the effects of inflation rate, industry factors and financial status of listed companies on stock returns, analyzes and judges the research results, and puts forward some suggestions.
2. Focus of work
(1) From the perspective of industry factors, this paper analyzes the returns of the Shanghai Composite Index and the returns of various industries by using the Sharp model, and discusses the correlation between the returns of various industries and the returns of stocks and the correlation between industries by using the correlation method.
(2) Make an empirical analysis of the financial situation of listed companies, and use the arbitrage pricing model to regress the stock return rate and various financial indicators. Find out the significance level of each financial index and stock return rate, and make an empirical test of each financial index by principal component analysis to compare the influence degree of each financial index on stock return rate.
3. Difficulties in work
Due to the different financial indicators selected by different industries, it is difficult to find the complete and true financial indicators of listed companies by trying to find the same type of listed companies in training samples and test samples, and it is also difficult to analyze the factors affecting the stock return rate of listed companies in China.
4. Methods to be adopted
In this paper, theoretical research and empirical research are combined, and the sample data are processed by statistical software such as EXCEL and SPSS, and the factors affecting the stock return rate of listed companies in China are comprehensively discussed.
5. Working face
The project starts and ends from February 20 14 to June 20 14.
2065438+February 2004? 2065438+March 2004
Collect information, consult relevant literature at home and abroad, read and sort out relevant works on factor analysis theory at home and abroad, study, sort out and analyze the existing theories and cutting-edge knowledge of the factors affecting the stock return rate of listed companies in China, and grasp the factors affecting the stock return rate of listed companies in China as a whole; And complete the preliminary outline of the paper, ready to open the topic.
2065438+March 2004? April 20 14
Complete the Chinese translation of an English document and collect the data needed for empirical research.
20 14 April? 2065438+May 2004
On the basis of the research results in the previous stages, the empirical in-depth research was carried out, and the corresponding results were obtained and the first draft of the paper was completed.
May 20 14? June 20 14
Ask for advice, revise it repeatedly, and finally finish the thesis and prepare for the defense.
Four, the main references (not less than 10, not less than 7 periodicals, there should be a certain number of foreign literature, at least one cited foreign literature (more than 3 pages) and its translation).
Marcovitz. Portfolio selection [J]. Financial Journal,1952,7 (1): 77-91.
[2] Shi Donghui. An Empirical Study on the Risk of Shanghai Stock Market [M]. Economic Research, 1996, (10):44-48.
[3] Chen Langnan, Qu Wenzhou. An Empirical Study on Capital Asset Pricing Model [M]. Economic Research, 2000, (4):68-72.
[4] Yang Chaojun, Xing Jing. Empirical test of PM in Shanghai stock market [J]. Journal of Shanghai Jiaotong University, 1998, (3):
54-58.
[5] Chen, with. The validity test of CAPM in China stock market [J]. Journal of Peking University, 2000, (4).
32-2-39 .
[6] Liu Zhixin, Huang Changli. A Cross-sectional Study on Expected Returns of China Stock Market [J]. Economic Science,
2000: 156- 16 1.
Chen Xinyuan, Zhang Tianyu, Chen Donghua. Cross-sectional Multi-factor Analysis of Stock Expected Returns: Empirical Evidence from China Stock Market [M]. Financial research, 200 1, (6):24 1-247.
[8] Fan Longzhen, a native of Wang Haitao. Research on the Influencing Factors of Stock Returns in Shanghai Stock Market [J]. journal of management sciences in china, China, 2003,
(2): 1 15- 1 18.
[9] Gu Juan, Ding Ying. An Empirical Study on the Value Growth Effect of China Stock Market [J]. Economic Review in 2003,
(2):94- 104.
Teng Jianzhou, Liang Qi. Rethinking on China's Financial Development and Economic Growth: Diversification Based on the Change of Variable Structure.
VAR analysis [J]. Contemporary Economic Science, 2006, (5):36-43.
;