With the rapid development of intelligence and automation, the number and specifications of sensor applications will usher in a new wave of growth, and image perception is the most important.
Driven by smart phones and hardware, sensors have developed rapidly in the past decade. In the period of 5GAIoT, the Internet of Everything has been gradually realized. The technology of autonomous driving and robot is close to the singularity of large-scale commercial use, which is expected to usher in a new wave of growth.
Because most AI relies on image recognition to make decisions, optical sensors are not only the core entrance of information collection, but also the converter and main bridge between the real world and the mirror universe. The industry track is long and snowy.
CMOS accounts for half of photoelectric components, which will drive the overall market to approach 10% compound growth in the next five years.
According to IC insights, the market size of OSD semiconductor will be 88.3 billion US dollars in 2020 (accounting for 20% of the overall semiconductor market), of which photoelectric components, sensors and discrete devices will account for 50%/ 19%/3 1%. It is estimated that the OSD market scale will reach132.6 billion USD in 25 years, and CAGR will reach 8.5%.
In the past 20 years, the market scale of CMOS/LED lighting/laser emitter/coupler /CCD is 654.38+0.9 billion/654.38+0.3 billion/22 billion/654.38+0.9 billion/654.38+0.2 billion respectively. It is estimated that the overall market size will reach 68.3 billion in 25 years, and CAGR will reach 9.2%.
CMOS is the core component of optical sensing, accounting for nearly half of the cost of mobile phone/car camera module.
Generally speaking, CMOS/ lens /VCM/ components account for about 40%/20%10%15% of the total camera cost respectively. As the core component of optical sensing, CMOS accounts for nearly 50% of the cost of optical systems such as camera modules and lidar.
In the future, with the promotion of high-definition images, the proportion of high-pixel or CMOS costs will further increase.
The downstream application of CMOS has gradually shifted from mobile phones to automobiles, industrial security and VRAR.
According to Omida's prediction, in 2020, the proportion of CMOS downstream applications in mobile phones, industrial security and automobile applications will be 73%/1%/6% respectively (according to market scale); The proportions below 5mp/6-12mp/13-32mp/33-50mp/above 5 1MP are 27%/32%/16%//respectively.
With the rise of autonomous driving (L3 is expected to reach 12% in 25 years), it is expected to reproduce the multi-camera upgrade trend brought by smart phones (1 8 bicycle camera and 0 1 lidar).
In addition, with the popularity of cost-effective Oculus 2 and the launch of MR head display by Apple next year, ARVR is also expected to bring potential increment in the next five years (it is estimated that the shipment will reach 30 million in 25 years, with 8 single machines).
Copy the growth trend of smart phones, and the car market can be comparable to mobile phones for a long time.
At present, bicycle cameras are generally equipped with 1-2 cameras (1 front view+1 rear view). However, from the perspective of autonomous driving, a complete ADAS system should generally include at least 6 cameras (1 front view, 1 rear view and 4 panoramic views), and the number of cameras in high-end smart cars can reach 8- 12.
According to IDC's forecast, in 2024, the global shipment of self-driving cars will exceed 55 million, the shipment of vehicle-mounted cameras will exceed 440 million, and the CAGR will exceed 20%.
At the same time, the value of car camera far exceeds that of mobile phone camera. Although the pixel specification of car camera is low, its CMOS price is much higher than that of mobile phone because of its security, and its long-term market scale is expected to be equivalent to that of mobile phone.
Autopilot multi-sensor is the trend, and lidar is an important increment of optics. In 25 years, the shipment volume was 300 million pieces, and the market scale exceeded 654.38+0.5 billion US dollars.
At present, the mainstream autopilot sensors mainly include car camera, ultrasonic radar, millimeter wave radar and laser radar. With the improvement of autonomous driving level, the number of on-board cameras and radars is increasing.
According to TSR forecast, in 2025, the global market size of vehicle-borne lidar will be about 654.38+0.5 billion US dollars, of which CAGR will exceed 80%. The current price of lidar is more than 3000 dollars. With the improvement of industrial chain maturity, it is estimated that the cost will be reduced to 500 USD in 2030. After the price reduction, the advantages of high precision and wide detection range are highlighted, and the market space is expected to be further expanded.
The tightening of international politics and the development of smart cities have promoted the rapid growth of demand for high-definition security cameras.
Security cameras are widely used in public services, enterprise services and civil scenes. According to Yole data, the global security CCM market in 20 18 was 860 million US dollars. It is estimated that the market scale will reach USD 2 billion in 2024, and the CAGR will be about18-5% in 2024.
With the development of smart cities and the promotion of new infrastructure, as well as the rise of non-civilian demand brought by political situation, the demand for security video surveillance cameras is increasing.
According to TSR data, in 20 19, the global shipment of safety lenses was 3130,000 pieces, and in 2014-20/9, the CAGR exceeded 20%. At the same time, in response to the call of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology "4K first, take care of 8K", high-definition security cameras will be the future trend.
It is estimated that in 20021year, the shipment of high-definition cameras (1080P) will reach 76%, and the proportion of zoom lenses will gradually increase. A single VR needs multiple cameras, and ARVR is expected to grow in the next five years.
There are four cameras around Oculus quest2 for position tracking, perspective and hand tracking.
According to the U.S. Patent Office, Apple's patented VR head display is equipped with eight surround sensing cameras with overlapping fields of view, which can provide a 360-degree physical view of the user's environment.
According to IDC's forecast, the global sales of VR head-mounted displays will reach 28.6 million units in 25 years, and the compound growth rate in 202 1-2025 will be about 40%. If there are 8 cameras in a single machine, the shipment will exceed 200 million.
In terms of AR optics, AR equipment includes multiple cameras, including depth of field, environment and high-definition cameras, many of which are 3D cameras, which are used to obtain information for modeling.
CMOS has three pillars, Weir and Gekewei have made steady breakthroughs, and Anson and Stevie have deepened their market segments.
At present, the CMOS industry is dominated by Sony (47%), Samsung (20%) and Weir (12%). From the perspective of mobile phone CMOS, Sony (48%), Samsung (26%) and Howe (14%) are still in the top three, followed by Gekewei (5%) and stmicroelectronics (4%), of which Gekewei and stmicroelectronics account for 60% of the market below 5MP, and Sony accounts for 6mp-10. On the other hand, Anselmi and Stevie have advantages in vehicle and safety market segments.
The domestic industrial chain may rely on the high growth of domestic demand to achieve substitution.
At present, the industry mostly adopts IDM mode+a small amount of outsourcing packaging. Under the trend of localization, the purely designed Weil and Gekewei have made breakthroughs in the high-end and low-end markets respectively, especially in the fields of automobiles and security. We judge that major foundries, such as TSMC, SMIC, Hua Hong Semiconductor, and packaging and testing plants, such as Cai Jing, Tongxin Electric, Jingyuan Electric and Fang Jing Science and Technology, are expected to benefit from the increase of outsourcing share and process upgrade.
As a subdivision track that occupies half of the non-IC market, photoelectric components are expected to benefit from the continuous penetration of sensing applications.
As a core component, CMOS is expected to become the most favorable part of driving in emerging fields such as autonomous driving and ARVR.
Driven by the domestic supply chain, head manufacturers such as Will and Gekewei are expected to continue to break through in technology and share; The unique design+OEM mode will also support the rapid growth of TSMC, SMIC, Hua Hong Semiconductor, back-end packaging and testing materials, Tongxin Electric, Jingyuan Electric, Fang Jing and other scientific and technological achievements.
The penetration rate of autonomous driving is less than expected, and the uncertainty brought by external factors to the manufacturing process.
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The original name of the report is: image sensor: a bridge between the real world and the digital universe.
Authors and analysts: Hong Jiajun and Li Jiaxun of Industrial Securities.
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