I am now studying for a master's degree in finance at Chongqing University. I have translated a paper on the changes of Turkey's exchange rate system before, which can be regarded as a certain understanding of Turkey's economic development. First of all, at the macro level, by 20 12, Turkey's per capita GDP will reach 10457 US dollars at the exchange rate (purchasing power parity may be slightly lower than this), which is basically a middle-income country but has not yet entered the ranks of developed countries. Since 2000, the average annual GDP growth rate of Turkey has been 7%, and the per capita GDP of Turkey has tripled compared with that of 2000 (not excluding the nominal value of exchange rate factor). Around1980s, the economic development mode of Turkey has undergone great changes. Since the Kemal Revolution in Turkey in the 1 920s, Turkey has always adhered to the development model of import substitution industrialization, namely, exporting primary products and raw materials, importing advanced foreign equipment, developing domestic industries to reuse trade barriers, and protecting "domestic infant industries", supported by a strict fixed exchange rate system (Latin American countries, South Korea, China, Taiwan Province Province and Pahlavi Iran adopted this industrialization model), but Turkey imported substitution. Turkey lacks internationally competitive primary products and cannot obtain enough foreign exchange income to introduce modern industrial facilities. On the contrary, it was more successful for Iran to rely on oil exports and imports to replace industrialization in Pahlavi period. 2. After introducing modern industrial infrastructure, Turkey cannot cultivate competitive domestic enterprises. Except for infrastructure-related industries such as steel industry and construction industry, other manufacturing industries are not competitive, and trade barriers and fixed exchange rate system make economic operation inefficient. By the1970s, influenced by the disintegration of the Bretton Woods system and the oil crisis, Turkey's foreign exchange reserves were greatly reduced, and the fixed exchange rate system was unsustainable, resulting in serious stagflation+high unemployment rate+high fiscal deficit in China.

Since 1980, Turkey has started economic liberalization reform to overcome the crisis. 19801On October 24th, the Turkish government announced an economic stabilization and reform plan, which involved trade and financial liberalization. The main goal of trade and financial liberalization is to promote the development of financial markets, while trying to implement a more liberalized trade mechanism characterized by floating exchange rates, which is in line with the development strategy based on export-driven development. In the early 1980s, the introduction of actively managed floating exchange rate mechanism was an important step to implement this reform plan, which has always been the central work of trade liberalization projects. Before 1980, international capital flows and foreign exchange controls were strict. After the reform, they became completely liberalized and the Turkish lira was fully convertible at 1989. On the other hand, Turkey privatized state-owned enterprises, relaxed the entry threshold for foreign investment, and actively supported the development of emerging service industries such as tourism. By the time Erdogan came to power in 2000, Turkey had further accelerated the pace of financial liberalization, and Erdogan's "neoliberal" economic policy was statistically successful in the past 12 years.

At present, Turkey's economic development level and situation are relatively good among emerging economies, and the investment environment is good, but there are structural problems in Turkey's economic development mode. 1. 1980 Since the reform, Turkey's domestic industries have relied heavily on international capital inflows and foreign capital, and the large-scale entry and flight of foreign capital has brought great instability to Turkey's economy. 1 June 1994,1June 2006 and February 2006, 5438+0, the floating exchange rate system was abandoned twice because of the financial crisis caused by the large-scale flight of foreign capital in a short period of time. 2. 1980 Since the reform, Turkey has vigorously developed the modern service industry represented by tourism and related industries. However, the development of domestic manufacturing industry lags behind, and a large number of manufactured goods in Turkey need to be imported. Therefore, the domestic inflation level in Turkey is greatly influenced by the exchange rate. At the same time, because the economies with backward manufacturing industries can't absorb enough employed people, the unemployment problem has not been well solved, although the economic aggregate has grown rapidly. Not long ago, protests against Erdogan broke out nationwide, and the high unemployment rate was also an important reason. Countries in the Middle East and North Africa, including Greece and Ireland in Europe, are facing similar problems. In recent years, the domestic political situation in Turkey has become more volatile, and Islamic extremist forces have seized power (now Erdogan and his ruling party). Turkey's involvement in the current Middle East turmoil is not ruled out, and the future environment of Turkey's economic development is very variable.

I hope I can help you. . . . . .