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Thesis title: Research on RMB exchange rate pass-through effect.

Exchange rate pass-through effect refers to the influence of exchange rate changes on domestic price level. This paper studies the transmission effect of RMB exchange rate after the exchange rate reform in July 2005. The research content is mainly divided into two parts, one is the investigation of the level of RMB exchange rate transmission effect, and the other is the analysis of the reasons for the incomplete transmission effect of RMB exchange rate. In the investigation of the transmission effect level of RMB exchange rate, consumer price, enterprise commodity price and imported commodity price are selected as indicators of exchange rate transmission to price level, and the symbol recognition SVAR model is used to estimate the transmission effect level of RMB exchange rate. The cause analysis of RMB incomplete exchange rate pass-through effect mainly studies the influence of low (high) estimation of unbalanced exchange rate on exchange rate pass-through effect, which is related to the long-term debate about whether RMB exchange rate is undervalued or overvalued. The influence of exchange rate fluctuation on the level of exchange rate conduction effect is related to the reform of RMB exchange rate formation mechanism. The conclusion shows that the transmission effect of China's exchange rate is low and lagging behind, and the transmission effect of different price levels is quite different. The low (high) estimation of exchange rate explains the low transmission effect of exchange rate on the price of imported goods to some extent; The increase of exchange rate flexibility is helpful to improve the level of exchange rate transmission effect; The main reasons that affect the incomplete transmission of RMB exchange rate are price stickiness and monetary policy factors. Finally, according to the research conclusion, some policy suggestions are put forward to speed up the reform of RMB exchange rate formation mechanism, improve RMB exchange rate flexibility and control inflation.

This paper mainly includes the following six parts: The first chapter is the introduction. The background, research significance, basic ideas, innovations and main viewpoints of the topic. The second chapter summarizes the theory and literature of exchange rate pass-through effect. Including the meaning and transmission mechanism of exchange rate transmission, the theory and literature review of exchange rate transmission, and the new progress of exchange rate transmission research. The third chapter estimates the level of RMB exchange rate pass-through effect. The purpose of this study is to estimate the level of RMB exchange rate pass-through effect after the exchange rate reform in July 2005, and to have an overall understanding of the level of exchange rate pass-through effect in China. This paper selects three indicators, namely consumer price, enterprise commodity price and imported commodity price, and uses symbol recognition to impact SVAR model, so as to eliminate the phenomenon that the impulse response value of early scholars deviates from economic theory, which leads to the decrease of exchange rate conduction effect level, and estimate the more real exchange rate conduction effect level of RMB. The research conclusion points out that RMB exchange rate transmission is incomplete and low, and the exchange rate transmission effect of different price indexes is quite different. The fourth chapter is the analysis of RMB unbalanced exchange rate and exchange rate pass-through effect. This part draws lessons from the exchange rate transmission effect model of Ghosh and Rajan(2006), and proves that when the exchange rate is undervalued or overvalued, the transmission of the exchange rate to the price level is naturally incomplete. This theory is applied to the analysis of RMB exchange rate transmission effect. Firstly, the behavior equilibrium exchange rate method (BEER) is used to estimate the low (high) estimated level of RMB exchange rate from 2005 to April 20 12. Secondly, based on the model of Campa and Goldberg(2005) to study the exchange rate transmission effect of import price, this paper empirically tests the influence of low (high) valuation of exchange rate on the transmission effect of RMB exchange rate to consumer price, enterprise commodity price and imported commodity price. The research conclusion points out that the undervaluation or overvaluation of RMB exchange rate can explain the transmission of exchange rate to the prices of imported goods to some extent. The fifth chapter is the analysis of RMB exchange rate fluctuation, price stickiness and exchange rate conduction effect. This chapter draws lessons from Devereux, Yetman's (2010) model of exchange rate pass-through effect of small countries' open macro-economy under viscous prices, and extends the model by adding risk variables of exchange rate fluctuations, and solves the expression of exchange rate pass-through effect under the impact of foreign interest rates, monetary policies, technologies and exchange rate fluctuations. Taking RMB exchange rate as an example, this paper estimates the values of related variables in the model of exchange rate pass-through effect and calculates the level of RMB exchange rate pass-through effect. Finally, relax the values of related variables of different shocks in the model and study the reasons that affect the incomplete transmission of RMB exchange rate.

The research conclusion points out that price stickiness and monetary policy are the main reasons that affect the incomplete transmission of RMB exchange rate, and the increase of exchange rate elasticity is beneficial to the improvement of RMB exchange rate transmission effect, but the increase of exchange rate elasticity also means the increase of exchange rate risk in the process of enterprise operation, which will affect the level of exchange rate transmission effect. Chapter VI Main conclusions and policy recommendations.

Abstract 4-6

Abstract 6-8

Directory 8- 10

Chapter I Introduction 10- 15

I. Topic Background 10- 12

Second, the research significance 12- 13

Iii. Basic ideas 13- 14

Four. Innovations and main viewpoints 14- 15

Chapter II Exchange Rate Pass-through Effect Theory and Literature Review 15-39

Section 1 Meaning and Transmission Mechanism of Exchange Rate Pass-through Effect 15- 17

I. Meaning of exchange rate pass-through effect 15- 16

Second, the exchange rate transmission mechanism 16- 17

Section 2 Theoretical Summary of Exchange Rate Pass-through Effect 17-28

First, the complete exchange rate transfer effect theory 17- 19

Second, the traditional analysis method of incomplete exchange rate pass-through effect 19-24

Three, the new open macroeconomics and exchange rate transmission theory 24-28 pages

Section III Literature Review 28-37

I. Analysis of the Causes of Incomplete Exchange Rate Pass-through Effect 28-3 1

Second, the size of the exchange rate transfer effect coefficient 3 1-33

Three. Study on the Transmission Effect of RMB Exchange Rate 33-37

Section IV New Progress in the Study of Exchange Rate Pass-through Effect 37-39

I. DSGE Model and Exchange Rate Pass-through Effect 37

Two. Incomplete financial market and exchange rate pass-through effect 37-39

Chapter III Estimation of RMB Exchange Rate Transfer Effect Level 39-56

Section 1 Analysis of Changes in RMB Exchange Rate and Price Level 39-42

I. Analysis of RMB Exchange Rate Change 39-4 1

Second, the price level change analysis 4 1-42

Section 2 introduces SVAR models 42-45 for symbol recognition and data processing.

I. SVAR model of symbol recognition 42-43

Two. Data processing 43-45

Section III Empirical Analysis of the Transmission Effect of RMB Exchange Rate on Different Price Indicators 45-56

I. Criteria for identifying exchange rate shock symbols 45-46

Second, the construction of SVAR model of symbol recognition 46 pages

Three. Analysis of the impact of exchange rate shocks on different price indicators 46-56

Chapter IV Analysis of RMB Exchange Rate Imbalance and Exchange Rate Transmission Effect 56-7 1

Section 1 Theoretical Analysis of Unbalanced Exchange Rate and Pass-through Effect 56-58

I. Equilibrium Exchange Rate and Exchange Rate Pass-through Effect 56-57

Second, exchange rate imbalance and exchange rate pass-through effect 57-58

Section 2 Calculation of Low (High) Valuation Level of RMB Exchange Rate 58-64

I. Introduction to Behavior Equilibrium Exchange Rate Method 58-60

Two. Estimation of RMB Equilibrium Exchange Rate Level 60-63

Three. Calculation of the estimated level of low (high) exchange rate 63-64

Section 3 Analysis of the Influence of Low (High) Valuation of RMB Exchange Rate on Transmission Effect 64-7 1

I. Empirical model 64-65

II. Data Selection and Unit Root Test 65-67

Three. Analysis of the influence of low (high) exchange rate estimation on exchange rate pass-through effect 67-7 1

Chapter V Analysis of RMB Exchange Rate Fluctuation, Price Stickiness and Transmission Effect 7 1-89

Section 1 Theoretical Model 7 1-77

I. Staggered Price Pricing 7 1-73

Two. Exchange rate determination 73-76

Three. Determining the pass-through effect of exchange rate 76-77

Section 2 Estimation of Related Variable Values 77-84

I. Impact of foreign interest rates 77-78

Two. Impact of domestic monetary policy 78-80

Three. Technical shock 80-83

Four. Impact of exchange rate fluctuations 83-84

Section 3 Estimation of RMB Exchange Rate Transfer Effect Coefficient 84-89

I. Estimation of RMB Exchange Rate Pass-through Effect Level 84-85

Two. Calculation of RMB exchange rate transmission effect level under relaxed conditions 85-89

Chapter VI Main conclusions and policy recommendations 89-94

I. Main conclusions 89-90

Two. Policy recommendations 90-94

Reference 94- 102

Ps 102- 103

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