The specific content of this article:
The content of this paper is that when the annual energy release rate of Eurasian earthquakes is higher than 50% and accompanied by earthquakes of magnitude 8 or above, there will be many earthquakes of magnitude 7 or above in Chinese mainland in the next three years, and this relationship has passed the significance test at the level of 10%. "The significance level is 10%" means that the probability of the above results being wrong is 10% and the probability of being correct is 90%.
This online article says that the research results of this paper are equivalent to the early warning of this Turkish earthquake, and its occurrence tells us that there is a 90% possibility of an earthquake of magnitude 7-8 in China in the next three years. Although we don't know the exact time and place of the earthquake, this kind of early warning is extremely precious and scarce.
Experts think there is no need to panic:
Sun Shizhen, a researcher at China Seismological Network Center, said: In the past 100 years, the average probability of earthquakes of magnitude 7 or above in Chinese mainland was twice every three years, so the conclusion of this article has no special significance. In other words, whether an earthquake of magnitude 7 or above occurs in Turkey or other countries in the world, it is very likely that an earthquake of magnitude 7 or above will occur in China within three years.
Turkey earthquake and Wenchuan earthquake originated in the same seismic zone;
Turkey is not only a romantic country at the intersection of Europe and Asia, but also a country in the middle of the Alps-Himalayan orogenic belt.
This orogenic belt is the frontier of collision between African plate, Arabian plate, Indian Ocean plate and Eurasian plate. The whole ancient ocean disappeared here, leaving only the dying Mediterranean.
At the same time, it is also one of the three major volcanic earthquake zones on this planet, and its influence spans three continents: Asia, Africa and Europe. Earthquakes occurred frequently in history, which brought great losses to human society many times.
This earthquake zone also has a great influence on China. /kloc-The Wenchuan earthquake 0/5 years ago was also the product of the activity of this seismic belt, and the shadow of fear it left for people has not completely subsided.
We feel the same for such a disaster; We have deep sympathy for the victims of the disaster. But we also believe that although the activities of the earth are difficult to understand, the courage of human beings to unite and help each other to overcome disasters will not be blocked by mountains, roads and national borders.
Be sure to turn on the earthquake warning function of the mobile phone!
There is no sense of security without earthquake warning! (Experience from experienced people)
Android users must turn on this feature! Although iPhone users don't have their own, they can also use third-party software!
Mobile phone earthquake warning settings
Xiaomi: mobile phone housekeeper → family care → earthquake warning;
Huawei: Setup → Safety → Emergency Warning Notification → Earthquake Warning;
Glory: setting → safety → emergency warning notice → earthquake warning;
Vivo: Weather App→ Settings → Earthquake Early Warning → Enable Earthquake Early Warning Service;
OPPO: setting → safety →SOS emergency contact → natural disaster early warning → earthquake early warning;
Realme: Settings → Safety →SOS Emergency Contact → Natural Disaster Alert → Earthquake Alert.
Apple users need to download third-party software.
Download earthquake warning and open the following settings:
1, Settings-Notification-Earthquake Warning-Enable Notification
2. Settings-Privacy-Location Services-Earthquake Warning-Select Always
Whenever there is a great disaster, there will always be heavy sorrow. In the face of disaster, how do we avoid danger and save ourselves?
How to avoid danger when the earthquake comes?
When you encounter an earthquake indoors, you should quickly run to the open place outside the house and wear protective equipment on your head. In case you can't escape in time, you should hide near solid furniture, inside walls, corners and other places that are easy to form a triangular space, and cover your mouth and nose with towels or clothes to prevent dust and smoke from entering.
Stay away from external walls, doors, windows and balconies. Remember not to use the elevator, let alone jump off a building.
When you encounter an earthquake outdoors, you should pay attention to protecting your head and quickly run to the open field and squat down. Avoid high-rise buildings and overpasses, and stay away from dangerous facilities such as high-voltage lines.
How to save yourself from being trapped in an earthquake?
1? Stay awake. Hear someone outside, shout loudly or tap the pipeline for help; If you don't know if there is anyone outside, you should reduce your physical exertion and make intermittent noises.
2? Clear the overlay. If you can't escape for a while, you must find a way to free your hands and feet and remove the covering that is pressed on your body, especially above your abdomen.
3? Cover your nose and mouth with towels, clothes, etc. Prevent inhalation of smoke and dust, causing suffocation.
4? Prevent falling. We should try our best to support heavy objects that may fall to ensure safe living space, and it is best to move in the direction of light and air circulation.
5? Looking for weight loss recipes. If it is difficult to escape, try to find life-sustaining items such as water and food in a movable space and wait patiently for rescue.
6? If you smell gas, don't use matches, lighters, telephones, power switches or any electronic equipment.
Recently, there have been many places where birds hide the sky. Actually, don't panic too much. The most important thing is to be calm, master safety knowledge and skills, take risks scientifically and protect yourself.