1, dollar trend-when the dollar falls, gold generally rises.
Usually, investors will give up dollars when they take gold, and they will also give up gold when they take dollars. Although gold itself is not legal tender, it still has its value and will not depreciate into scrap iron. If the dollar is strong and there is a great chance of appreciation, people will naturally chase it. On the contrary, when the dollar weakens in the foreign exchange market, the price of gold will strengthen.
2. War and political turmoil-gold is12,000 yuan when the gun is fired. When the world is at war and war, gold generally rises.
In times of war and political turmoil, economic development will be greatly restricted. Due to inflation, any local currency may depreciate. At this time, the importance of gold is fully demonstrated. Because gold has recognized characteristics and is an internationally recognized trading medium, people will invest in gold at this moment. Buying gold will inevitably lead to an increase in the price of gold.
3, the world financial crisis-a financial crisis, gold will generally rise.
When the financial system of the United States and other western powers is unstable, world funds will be invested in gold, and the demand for gold will increase, and the price of gold will rise. At this time, gold played the role of a financial refuge. Only when the financial system is stable, investors' confidence in gold will be greatly reduced, and selling gold will lead to a decline in the price of gold.
4, inflation-inflation is fierce, gold will generally rise.
If inflation rises sharply, there is no guarantee to hold cash at all, and interest can't keep up with the sharp rise in prices. People will buy gold because the theoretical price of gold will rise with inflation. The higher the inflation in major western countries, the greater the demand for gold as a safe haven, and the higher the world gold price will be. Among them, the inflation rate in the United States is the most likely to affect the change of gold. In some smaller countries, such as Chile and Uruguay, the annual inflation rate can be as high as 400 times, but it has no effect on the price of gold.
5. Oil price-When the price of crude oil rises, gold generally rises.
Gold itself is a hedge against inflation, which is inseparable from inflation in the United States. Rising oil prices mean that inflation will follow, and so will gold prices.
6, local interest rates-cut interest rates, gold will generally rise.
Investing in gold will not earn interest, and the profit of its investment depends entirely on the price increase. When the interest rate is low, there will be some income from investing in gold; Interest rates are closely related to gold. If the domestic interest rate is high, it is necessary to consider whether it is worthwhile to lose interest income to buy gold.
7, the economic situation-the economy is improving, gold will generally rise.
Prosperous economy and carefree life will naturally enhance people's desire to invest, people's ability to buy gold for preservation or decoration will be greatly increased, and the price of gold will be supported to a certain extent. On the contrary, people live in poverty. During the economic depression, people can't even meet the basic guarantee of food and clothing. Where are they interested in investing in gold? The price of gold is bound to fall. The economic situation is also a factor that constitutes the fluctuation of gold prices.
8. Supply and demand of gold-When output decreases and demand increases, gold generally increases.
The price of gold is based on supply and demand. If the output of gold increases significantly, the price of gold will be affected and fall back. However, if the output stops increasing due to the long-term strike of miners, the price of gold will appreciate in the case of short supply. In addition, the application of new gold mining technology and the discovery of new mines have increased the supply of gold, which will of course cause the price of gold to fall. A place may also have the habit of investing in gold, such as Japan's gold investment boom, which needs to be greatly increased, which also leads to price increases.
9. Economic data-The weak economic data of the United States indicates that the American economy is in recession and gold will generally rise.
? Non-farm employment data, LMCI data, American GDP report, American retail sales monthly rate data, American durable goods orders, American producer price index, American consumer price index, American new house operating rate and construction permit, American purchasing managers index, service industry index ISM, American monthly trade current account, stock market and bond market financing, University of Michigan consumer confidence index, etc. Therefore, when reflecting the American economy, the price trend relative to gold is opposite.
Yao Zhang XI: There are many aspects in the basic analysis of the gold trend. When we use these factors, we should consider how strong their respective functions are. Find out the primary and secondary positions and influencing time periods of each factor, and make the best investment decision. The basic analysis of gold can be divided into short-term (usually three months) factors and long-term factors. We should treat its influence separately.