Recently, the situation on the Korean peninsula has once again attracted the attention of the whole world, from former South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun's suicide by jumping off a cliff to North Korea's brazen second nuclear test. So how will the situation on the Korean peninsula develop?
First of all, Roh Moo-hyun's death has nothing to do with North Korea's nuclear test, one is an accidental event, and the other is an inevitable event that is irreversible in procedure!
Let's look at the reason why the North Korean issue can't be solved for a long time. It's not that there is no way to solve it, but that the main parties to the contradiction are actually unwilling to completely solve it! What is its reason? To understand this, we must first understand the strategic situation on the peninsula.
The United States' delay in dialogue with North Korea is actually a delaying tactic. He doesn't want to solve the North Korean nuclear issue. If the North Korean nuclear issue is completely resolved, there will be no reason for him to station troops in South Korea, and his control over the peninsula will be greatly reduced, which he does not want to see.
Let me talk about Japan again. Although we see that North Korea's possession of nuclear weapons is a threat to him, and he has been preaching this threat, it is only an excuse for it to develop its military strength. Japan is a very dangerous country, and its military strength is no worse than that of China, but it hides this strength everywhere and clamors to develop other countries. Therefore, the DPRK nuclear issue itself provides Japan with a reason to further develop its military strength that breaks through the peaceful constitution without threatening Japan, so that it will not make any concessions to North Korea.
Let's talk about Korea again. In fact, South Korea still wants to solve the North Korean problem, but it is not the protagonist to solve the problem. He doesn't have such strength. He is attached to the United States. He must keep pace with the United States to show his alliance to some extent. This relationship has become more and more obvious since the Lee Myung-bak government took office, but the problem is that North Korea is a country that responds to a tough attitude with a super tough attitude, so the relationship between the two sides is very stiff. For North Korea itself, he attributed all the difficulties in domestic development to US-Japan imperialism and the sanctions imposed by the running dog Lee Myung-bak's government, so this is also his trump card. If his relations with the United States and Japan are normalized, he will lose the excuse to defend his domestic development problems. Of course, he will benefit from it after the problem is solved, but this is obviously not what he wants to see.
Talking about Russia again, he seems to stay out of it, but he is not, but his role is obviously different. First of all, he has no sense of threat. He only cares about the military strength of the United States on the Korean peninsula. Of course, he is also afraid of another problem. If the United States and Japan use this as an excuse to deploy their TMD in East Asia, it will be fatal to him. So he still wants to solve North Korea and the problem, but he is not the protagonist of solving the problem like South Korea.
China's words very much hope to solve the North Korean problem. First of all, we have always opposed the development of nuclear power by any country, including North Korea. It is obviously not good for us to possess nuclear weapons on the Korean peninsula, so we agree with the condemnation of North Korea's nuclear test by the United Nations Security Council. At the same time, knowing that the United States and Japan are plotting to suppress North Korea, we have to show some support to North Korea, so we are a little embarrassed. Seriously, China is the biggest victim of the North Korean nuclear issue. Once there is a problem with the North Korean regime, we will face huge troubles, which cannot be based on assumptions because there are too many serious things involved. Once there is a problem, it is unknown what initiative the parties will take. Based on this vacillation, the strategic pattern of Northeast Asia established since World War II is something that all parties do not want to change at risk. Therefore, the settlement of the North Korean issue is not an overnight event, but an inevitable result of the compromise and utilization of the interests of all parties.