This potential eruption-or lack of activity-can help us better understand volcanoes and Io itself, which is the most active volcanic object in the solar system.
When this huge volcano named Loki was first discovered, its eruption period was about 540 days. Julie Rasburn, a physicist and planetary scientist at the Institute of Planetary Science, described this research result in a paper published in 2002.
At the beginning of a volcanic eruption, the Loki will light up for about 230 days, and then dim again. Then repeat this cycle. It was not until 200 1 that the volcano stopped getting brighter and darker, and all this happened as accurately as a clock.
Then in 20 13, Loki started again, but the cycle was slightly shorter-475 days instead of 540 days. Since then, his cycle has been 475 days.
"If this cycle remains unchanged, Loki should break out in September of 20 19," Rasborn said. "We correctly predicted that the last eruption will take place in May 20 18."
Rasborn and her team compared Loki to a lava lake, located in a crater-like depression about 200 kilometers (65,438+024 miles) wide, called Paatela. When the cooled crust on the lake becomes unstable and collapses due to gravity, it will later "overturn" and be submerged in fresh lava.
This view is supported by the observation report in 20 17, when the lava wave was slowly rolling in Patra-this process may last for 230 days.
The reason for the interruption of the period from 200 1 to 20 13 is unclear, but one possible explanation may be that the change of volatile components in magma has affected the density of magma and crust. Even a small change will greatly change the time required for the crust to sink.
In recent years, it began to erupt from May 23rd to June 6th, 20 18. This means that the window period of 475 days is between September 9 and 24. It may have already started.
"Volcanoes are hard to predict because they are too complicated. Many things will affect volcanic eruption, including the speed of magma supply, the composition of magma, especially whether there are bubbles in magma, the rock type where the volcano is located, the fracture state of the rock, and many other issues. " Rasborn said.
"We think Loki is predictable because it is too big. Because of its scale, when it erupts, basic physics may dominate, so minor complications of a volcano with less impact may not have much impact on Loki volcano. "
Patra, Loki (Loki) is the largest volcanic depression on Jupiter's moon Io, with a diameter of 202 kilometers (126 miles). It contains an active lava lake and occasionally an overturned crust. The activity of this earthquake is similar to the ultra-rapid expansion of the mid-ocean ridges on the earth. The infrared interferometer and radiometer (IRIS) of Voyager 1 have measured the temperature of thermal emission of Loki Patra volcano, which is consistent with the volcanic activity of sulfur. Lava lakes in Loki, such as Lake Patra, are partially filled with lava and covered with a thin solidified shell. These lava lakes are directly connected with the magma chamber below.
The thermal emission observation results of several lava lakes on Io show that there is hot lava on the edge of Patra in Loki, which is caused by the rupture of the lake shell on the edge of Patra. With the passage of time, because the solidified lava is denser than the molten magma below, the crust may sink, which will lead to the increase of volcanic thermal eruption. On Patra, Loki and other websites, this situation may happen occasionally.
Loki volcano releases ten times as much heat as when the earth's crust is stable. During the eruption, the sinking waves of the crust spread outward at a speed of about 1 km (0.6 miles) every day until the crust of the lake surfaced again. Once the new crust cools and thickens and no longer floats on lava, another eruption will begin.
Author: Michel Starr
Chen Cong
Please also get authorization for reprinting, and pay attention to maintaining integrity and indicating the source.