20 12 and the past 20 1 1 year, the international economic, political and security situation is complicated, the developing China countries represented by the BRICS countries have risen, and the process of world multipolarization has accelerated. The international economic recovery is slow and uneven, and there are still many uncertainties. The international security situation is not optimistic, the security of the Korean Peninsula is not optimistic, the situation in the Middle East is turbulent, the Iranian nuclear issue has not been effectively resolved, large-scale military conflicts in Africa and territorial disputes between China and neighboring countries have intensified. 20 1 1 has passed the halfway point, looking forward to cooperation, peace, development and green.
Simply from the perspective of several big countries: the United States was unable to do so, made strategic adjustments, returned to Southeast Asia with high profile, and contained China; The European Union and the Eurozone have been severely tested by the international financial crisis, and European leaders are doing their best to fight the crisis. Russia felt the disadvantages of resource export-dependent economic structure and decided to increase the intensity of diplomacy to serve economic modernization; Japan's economy has been depressed. After the earthquake of magnitude 9, the national economy suffered heavy losses and the government's credibility declined. China's active diplomacy has played an increasingly important role in international economic recovery, global comprehensive governance and regional stability. However, the continuous rise of domestic CPI and territorial disputes with neighboring countries have become the most important issues affecting the development of China.
1. Emerging powers exert influence in various fields, and the process of world multipolarization is accelerated.
Developing countries such as Asia, Africa and Latin America have maintained a strong momentum of development in general, especially China, Russian Federation, Indian, Brazilian and South African countries. Their international influence is constantly improving, the international power balance is further developing in a relatively balanced direction, and the trend of world multipolarization is more obvious. The International Monetary Fund predicts that developing countries will account for 52% of global GDP in 20 1 1 year, surpassing OECD countries for the first time in history. Emerging powers, represented by BRIC countries, are playing an increasingly important role in global economic and financial governance, climate change and international and regional hotspot issues such as Iran's nuclear program and North Korea's nuclear program. Emerging markets and developing countries account for half of G20 members. However, the West, led by the United States, still has comparative advantages, and its discourse power in international politics, economy, military affairs, science and technology still occupies a dominant position.
In view of the new changes in the international situation, major countries have adjusted their foreign strategies and policies one after another, and their interaction has become more active. The forms of international relations are more diverse and the connotations are more complicated. The camps and boundaries between traditional countries tend to be blurred, and the interest combination tends to be complex. Around climate change, nuclear safety and non-proliferation, international financial reform and other issues, countries have formed different alliances according to different interests. Actors in international relations are more diversified and international power is more dispersed. Ordinary people have increased their influence on foreign affairs and international relations through information technologies such as the Internet and mobile phones.
2. The economy is recovering slowly in the process of adjustment, and it still faces many uncertain risks.
20 10 both developed countries and emerging economies have shown signs of economic recovery to varying degrees. On the other hand, the expansionary policies implemented by countries to stimulate economic growth have led to high government debts. According to the data of the World Economic Forum, the average fiscal deficit of G20 members accounts for nearly 8% of GDP. In fiscal year 20 10, the US fiscal deficit reached a record 1.3 trillion US dollars, and the fiscal deficit in fiscal year 201/kloc-0 will further deteriorate. Japan's financial situation is also not optimistic. The scale of government debt is 200% of GDP, and the consumer price index has been falling for 20 consecutive months, and it is deeply mired in deflation. However, post-earthquake reconstruction may bring some changes to Japan.
Major Asian countries, such as China and India, have strong economic recovery, but they face the risks of rising prices and overheating, which may spread the risks to other Asian countries. 20 1 1, the world economy will continue to grow, but there are uncertain factors whether the growth will slow down. The development trend of the world economy is still very pessimistic.
The IMF's Global Financial Report believes that although the world economy is still recovering, the development of the global financial system still faces many uncertainties. With the recovery of the world economy, the balance sheets of economic entities have gradually improved, but to make greater progress, we must solve the problems left over by the major banking systems. However, huge downside risks still exist, and developed countries are facing the challenge of achieving sustained economic growth. Facts have proved that emerging market economies are more resistant to the impact of the financial crisis, but their financial systems are still very fragile and face the risk of being hit by huge capital inflows.
The international security situation is complex and changeable, and China and the United States play an important role.
First, the situation on the Korean Peninsula is tense: North Korea and South Korea are still at loggerheads over the Cheonan incident and the shelling incident on Yeonpyeong Island, and the tension on the Korean Peninsula will continue. The possibility of another military friction between North Korea and South Korea is quite high. Because the leaders of the two sides have limited room for manoeuvre in the domestic political field, the control of military frictions and conflicts will rely more on the restraint and restraint of neighboring powers such as the United States and China.
Second, the situation in the Middle East is worrying: the Arab-Israeli negotiations have broken down again because of the Jewish settlement issue, and the Middle East peace process has once again come to a standstill, making it difficult to restart in the near future. From July 20 1 1, American troops will begin to withdraw from Iraq, but the scale of withdrawal may still depend on the performance of the Iraqi maliki government. Because Pakistan resolutely refuses to cross the Pakistan-Afghanistan border to encircle the Taliban hiding in Pakistan's tribal areas, and the Karzai government supported by the United States is very fragile, it is difficult to decide the scale of the withdrawal of the United States from Afghanistan. After a series of diplomatic compromises, the Iranian nuclear crisis is still deadlocked.
Iii. 20 1 1 The security situation in Africa is not optimistic: Sudan held a referendum on whether southern Sudan is independent on10.8, and the north and south sides respected the results of the referendum and parted peacefully. The result was not bad, and there was no large-scale conflict. Look at Libya, Gaddafi and the opposition are fighting in their own way, and NATO has carried out military strikes and air strikes against them, causing great harm to the people and causing casualties.
Fourthly, it is worth mentioning that on May 1 this year, bin Laden was killed by American troops in Pakistan, which dealt a great blow to Taliban militants. This is undoubtedly an important blow and victory in the global fight against terrorism. However, the spread of terrorism still brings pressure to the world like a dark cloud. On May 2, People's Daily published an article written by a well-known media commentator, entitled "Bin Laden was buried in spring, but the US war on terrorism is still in the severe winter", arguing that "from the actual situation, the US anti-terrorism strategy in the Middle East has never been successful, but it has become more and more frightening."
Finally, the surrounding areas of China are very unstable: first, the differences with Vietnam, the Philippines, Indonesia and other countries have widened due to the South China Sea dispute. Vietnam and the Philippines have been expanding their armaments and then showing off their strength, but recently they seem to be easing; Secondly, the Diaoyu Islands dispute, Sino-Japanese relations were once tense, but because of the earthquake in Japan, this matter seems to be temporarily put on hold; Finally, there is a territorial dispute between China and India. By importing advanced equipment, India has continuously improved its military strength and formed a confrontation with China. China has always adhered to the principle of solving problems through peaceful dialogue. On the one hand, negotiate with it through diplomatic means and try not to have direct military conflict with it. On the other hand, it has greatly improved China's military defense capability. Advanced military weapons such as Dongfeng 2 1-D, J-20, and aircraft carrier are constantly appearing to deter other countries.
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