Chinese name: mbth, simon smith kuznets: Simon Smith Kuznets Nationality: American birthplace: Kharkov, Russia Date of birth: 190 1 Date of death:1July 8, 985 Occupation: economist Graduate school: Columbia University, USA Major achievement: putting forward Kuznets cycle theory.
Put forward the theory of national income accounting
Known as "the father of American G.N.P", his representative works: National Income and Capital Formation, Periodic Fluctuations of Retail and Wholesale Trade, and other biographies, academic contributions, and his main work, Biography of People 190 1, were born in Russian territory under the czar. Little Kuznets spent his childhood in Kharkov, his birthplace, under the care of his parents. After the October Revolution, he entered Leningrad University to study political economy. Simon smith kuznets 1920, Kuznets bid farewell to his native land and went to a foreign country alone, and was admitted to the School of Economics of Columbia University. In addition to studying economics, Kuznets also has a strong interest in mathematics. 1923 graduated with a bachelor's degree in economics and mathematics. However, Kuznets was not satisfied with his grades, and then he was admitted to the Graduate School of Columbia University to continue studying economics. 1924, Kurzner got his master's degree in just one year, which was highly valued by academic predecessors. Professor Mitchell, the founder of the American school of institutional economics, appreciated him very much, and invited Kuznets to his doorstep to serve as his mentor himself. Since then, he began to study institutional economics. Professor Mitchell, one of the founders of institutional school, pays attention to the relationship between system and economic development from the perspective of social system. He emphasized that various institutional factors play a very important role in economic life. Kuznets inherited his academic thoughts and published a long doctoral thesis "Periodic Fluctuations of American Retail and Wholesale Trade" in 1925, which concentrated on expressing the essence of institutional school and Mitchell's thought. Since then, Kuznets officially boarded the academic forum. At the same time, he became an American citizen. 1926, at Mitchell's recommendation, Kuznets came to the American Social Science Research Council. Here, he is busy with complicated affairs all day. In addition, institutional economics is beyond the research scope stipulated by traditional economics, and it is easy to make people lose a clear research object. Therefore, he resigned from the Council and gradually moved away from the institutional school. This decision of Kuznets was a turning point in his academic career. Since then, he has formed a new ideological system and founded empirical statistics by using the research methods of the institutional school he mastered and combining his own characteristics. Kuznets believes that concrete and real data can best reflect the essence of the problem and is the most convincing. So he took advantage of his work and spent more than a year visiting the general managers, chief accountants and lawyers of many economic courts. At the same time, he consulted a large number of materials, such as the gross national product, industrial and agricultural production and sales of various countries, thus obtaining hundreds of thousands of real data and making tens of thousands of cards, which created good conditions for his research. From 65438 to 0927, Kuznets worked as an assistant researcher at the National Economic Research Institute of new york, and his talents were brought into full play. After that, he collected the historical data of major capitalist countries from 19 to the 20th century, studied the national income, and analyzed and compared the economic growth rates of various countries. Several sets of figures reproduce the level of productivity development of the countries concerned at that time. From 65438 to 0930, Kuznets went to the University of Pennsylvania as an assistant professor and associate professor of economics and statistics, and published a paper "The Long-term Movement of Production and Price", which collected the production level and economic growth of the United States, Britain, France, Belgium, Austria and other countries in the past 50 years. He inspected 60 kinds of industrial and agricultural products in these countries and listed the time series of price changes of 35 main industrial and agricultural products, which consisted of tens of thousands of data on investment, raw materials, production and sales. He avoided the concept of short-term and medium-term periodic fluctuation of time when ordinary bourgeois economists studied the economic growth cycle, and focused on the analysis of related series points, which was later called "Kuznets cycle" by western economists. 1933, in his book Seasonal Fluctuations of Industry and Trade, Kuznets revised the statement that Russian economist Nikolai Kondratiev predicted that the long period of economic growth would be 50 years, and further expounded economic fluctuations. However, he completely put aside the inherent contradictions of capitalism, and simply explained the root cause of his long cycle with technological development, gold supply and demand and price changes, and even war. Of course, it is not comprehensive. However, when he was demonstrating, Kuznets' collation and analysis of historical statistical data reflected some characteristics of the development process of capitalist economy in the past hundred years, which was of great reference value. 1938, his book Commodity Flow and Capital Formation came out. At this point, his theoretical system of economic growth has basically taken shape. After World War II, his long-period theory was gradually accepted by the West. In simon smith kuznets 194 1 year, Kuznets published works such as National Income and Debt Expenditure191938 and National Income and Its Composition. 1946, he published the book "gross national product since 1869", which deepened the contents of the first two books, absorbed the achievements of other economists in gross national product and national economic income, classified and synthesized the historical data of 90 years, made it systematic, and rose to the height of theory for rigorous demonstration. Kuznets proposed that all kinds of unproductive income in monetary calculation should be included in the national income, and the redistributed income of * * * personnel, the army, the police, judges and their families should also be included in the gross national product and national income, so as to make it a whole and deal with it. Kuznets made a systematic study on the accounting and statistics of the gross national product and national income of the United States and other countries, which laid the foundation for the national economic accounting system of contemporary capitalist countries. During World War II, Kuznets was appointed by the United States as the deputy director of the Planning and Statistics Department of the Washington War Production Bureau. After the war, he was sent to China as an adviser to the Kuomintang Resources Committee. Since 1946, he has traveled all over China's large and medium-sized cities and rural areas, visited many banks, enterprises, companies, banks and exchanges, learned about China's politics and economy, and investigated the economic penetration of developed countries into developing countries, as well as their impact on economic growth and gross national product in these areas. /kloc-0 returned to the United States at the end of 1948, and/kloc-0 was elected president of the American Statistical Society in 1949. 65438-0950 was sent to India as a consultant to the General Administration of National Income Institutions of India. Kuznets' two trips to the East, which lasted for eight years, enabled him to witness the economic situation of poor and backward countries with his own eyes, know the consequences of imperialist countries' economic aggression against semi-colonies, and accumulated rich materials for him to study the history of economic growth. From 65438 to 0954, Kuznets retired to China and became a professor of political economy at Johns Hopkins University. In the same year, the article "Share of High-income Class in Income and Savings" was published at the annual meeting of American Economics, which was highly praised by the participants and was elected as the president. From 65438 to 0960, Kuznets accepted the appointment of Professor of Economic Statistics at Harvard University. This is the period when he studied the gross national product economy. 196 1 year, he published the book "Capital in American Economy" on the occasion of his 60th birthday. In his book, he introduced his achievements in studying national income and national income distribution and economic growth for many years, and established the theory of "income revolution". This theory is the main body of his welfare economics and capital accumulation theory. 1966 published the book "Modern Economic Growth", which covers the analysis of American economic growth process, the change of growth rate, the supply (savings) and demand (investment) of capital, the role of capital formation, the change of economic structure, the growth of population and productivity, and the change of income distribution. George murphy of the University of California once commented on this book: "Kuznets used his superb skills to sort out a lot of useful data from the chaotic data, and used it appropriately to express what he needed. This book has many incidental and insightful conclusions, and it is indeed a valuable work. " From 65438 to 0969, Cambridge University awarded Kuznets honorary professor of economics and economic statistics. Simon Kuznets's works by Kuznets have long been devoted to the collection, collation, comparison and analysis of economic statistics of various countries, and are the main representatives of the school of empirical statistics. At the forefront of national income research, he established the basic framework of modern national income accounting and laid the foundation of modern western aggregate economics; It is pointed out that the average long period of economic growth in all countries is 20 years, and it is proved that this period is greatly influenced by the change of population growth rate, which is called "Kuznets cycle". Using a large number of historical statistical data, this paper explains the characteristics of economic growth in various countries and the changing trend and relationship of various variables, and puts forward many profound opinions on how to realize economic growth, which has made important contributions in the field of economic growth research and has a wide influence in western economics. 1926, Kuznets published his doctoral thesis "Periodic Fluctuations of Retail and Wholesale Trade", which made his mark in academic circles. In the late 1920s and 1930s, he mainly studied the types of economic changes (cyclical fluctuations and seasonal changes). 1930 in the book "The Long-term Movement of Production and Price", using the research method of empirical statistics, this paper analyzes the long-term fluctuation process of the quantity and price of major industrial and agricultural products in the United States, Britain, Germany, France, Belgium, Austria and other countries in recent 50 years, and draws the conclusion that in major capitalist countries, the length ranges from 15 years to 25 years, with an average. In the late 1930s and 1940s, he focused on national income accounting. 194 1 year, he published an important book "National Income and Its Composition", which systematized and theorized the previous research on national income, expounded in detail the meaning of national income and its composition and the process of estimating national income by using existing data, and laid the foundation for the modern western national income accounting system, and was called the father of GNP. Since 1950s, he has focused on the field of economic growth, studied the economic growth of various countries with the concepts of national income and econometrics, and formed an important branch of modern western economic growth theory. From 65438 to 0954, he published the paper "Share of High-income Class in Income and Savings" at the annual meeting of American Economics, which was highly praised. 196 1 year, he introduced the research results of national income, national income distribution and economic growth for many years in the book Capital in American Economy, and established the theory of "income revolution". He has published six speeches such as Economic Growth (1959), Modern Economic Growth (1966) and National Economic Growth (197 1) and a series of books on economic growth. Through sorting out and comparing a large number of historical statistical data, this paper expounds the changing trend, characteristics and relationship between population growth and economic variables such as population structure, gross national income, productivity, industrial structure, income distribution structure, product use structure and international economic flow in the process of economic growth, provides statistical data for the research field of economic growth, explains the process of economic growth according to experience, and points out that economic growth is realized through technological progress and corresponding adjustment of structure, system and ideology in capitalist society. Kuznets was awarded the Nobel Prize in Economics in 197 1 for his great contribution to the study of population development trend and the relationship between population structure and economic growth and income distribution. Academic contributions emphasize empiricism. Kuznets believes that "the so-called theory is the expression of verifiable relationship between various empirically identifiable factors, which is relatively stable under different conditions such as time and place. We have never mastered this theory of economic growth in various countries. Obviously, we haven't mastered it, and more importantly, we are not ready to master it ... In this environment, this theory will be a dogmatic reflection of some transcendental characteristics of human nature ... or a formalistic economic growth mechanism model. The data required by the empirical constant in the formula and the conclusion of the correct relationship are not completely guaranteed ... It seems that we should limit ourselves to an ambitious task, for example, making some suggestions from the empirical records ... so as to provide guidance for further data research and verifiable theoretical analysis. Simon Kuznets's theory is based on a large number of measurements to understand economic phenomena, so a thorough and systematic test of the obtained data has become the first step of Kuznets methodology. As a rigorous scholar, Kuznets needs to master the early data in order to get an inevitable view of the fundamental economic system and separate short-lived phenomena from a series of long-term movements, but these data are usually incomplete. The data obtained from various sources must be classified, arranged and skillfully combined, and the errors of these original data must be evaluated. The colorful metaphors used by Richard Goodwin in his comments are very appropriate. He said: "Professor Kuznets plunged the stake into the sponge-like swamp of economic factors, and he made a huge raft, which withstood the solid arch support he carefully built step by step." The second step of Kuznets methodology is to classify features, which is a creative process, which wesley mitchell called "analysis and interpretation". In order to infer the relationship between data and represented variables, and to test consistency and rationality, data must be classified and rearranged. This explanation is inferred by judgment. Guided by the concept of economic analysis, scattered and incomplete data are transformed into measurement to supplement the theoretical framework and test the relationship between economic variables to the maximum extent. The discovery, test and explanation of Kuznets' business cycle theory is the focus of the initial research plan of the State Economic Bureau. The economic cycle is limited to the emergence of periodicity, rather than the cyclical fluctuations that occur simultaneously in many economic activities-expansion or contraction. The economic cycle is 5 ~ 6 years, but it may also be 10 ~ 12 years. Clearly pointed out that it is a long-term trend. Three cycles of average duration have been identified from economic cycles and long-term trends, although their sustainability is still controversial. The intermediate period is usually called Kuznets period. The conclusion of Kuznets cycle is not only taken from the original data, but also benefited from two articles by former student and colleague Moses Abramovich. Because of the spontaneity of periodic motion, Abramovich proposed to replace it with "swing" and "fluctuation" according to Kuznets' experience. After excluding the influence of trends and periodicity in the United States and eight other countries on 35% of the prices and 65% of the product lines produced, Kuznets discovered the "second long-term movement", with an average duration of 22 years. Arthur burns first discovered the existence of cycles in overall economic activities and confirmed Kuznets' conclusion about individual commodities through research. Kuznets linked passivity in economic activities with corresponding migration fluctuation, population growth rate and labor force growth. When analyzing the relationship between economy and population change, he made a great pioneering contribution to economic science. Population is the main determinant of economic activities, and economic activities can be manifested as the impact on population growth. However, economists generally believe that population is an exogenous variable. For example, when the output of unit cost is specified, it is regarded as an exogenous variable, that is, the data needs to be adjusted due to demographic factors. In fact, the weak Kuznets cycle has been produced in the representative research of Klein-Goldberg econometric model. Kuznets, the theory of national income accounting, always treats some controversial concepts and statistical problems cautiously in his work, and pays close attention to the classification of basic assumptions. He pays special attention to the subjective factors that are difficult for data users to distinguish and the accuracy of error transmission. In many works of Kuznets, the hypothesis, definition and interpretation of published data are discussed. For example, the gross national product is a comprehensive measure of economic activities, and it is also the basis for enterprises and * * * to make decisions. However, some products and services are excluded because there are no obvious signs, housework services are not included, and some illegal acts are also excluded. Kuznets explained: "For example,' blackmail' services will obviously cause compensation, and their prices depend on the supply and demand of such services in the market, so they are part of our economic system, but if they are included in the gross national product, they cannot explain the parts that are extremely useful to society and contribute to the economic system." In addition, he also dabbled in national income works and many controversial social philosophy issues in domestic and foreign conferences. For example, the difference between final and intermediate, gross output value and net output value is a good example. In order to avoid double counting, the gross national product only includes the final product. For example, the value of flour used to produce the final product of bread cannot be included in the gross national product. However, for the same reason, the transportation cost of workers included in the final product can be regarded as the intermediate cost of products and services produced by workers. The national income account also includes the value of cars produced and the value of new machines used to produce cars, as well as the value of those machines that have depreciated due to production. The estimation of gross national product (gross national product minus capital stock depreciation) does not solve this problem, and because some consumer goods are used to maintain the labor force, the labor resources will also depreciate. Kuznets believes that these problems can be solved by reaching an agreement on the ultimate goal of economic activities. If the ultimate goal of society is to increase the supply of resources, a boundary can be drawn; If the ultimate goal is consumer satisfaction, you can get another boundary ... A legitimate reason for formulating the concept of national income in this way is that due to universal motives, it is necessary to measure the positive contribution made by the economic system to meet the current and future needs of a country, which maximizes the effectiveness of consumers as a whole. The motivation of this kind of consumption maximization is mainly from the point of view that goods exist for people, not for people. On this issue, Kuznets continued his research and revised the definition of the market value of the final product and output. Robert s? Eisner and an association edited the book Estimation of Total Income Account System according to Kuznets' concept and viewpoint. The framework provided by national income statistics is indispensable for the management of modern policies. In the past 50 years, this framework has been widely used all over the world. Kuznets also helped several countries established after World War II to prepare initial income estimates. In addition, the national income account is also the source of consumption, savings, investment and other data needed to test the macroeconomic model established by economists in education and research. Kuznets also made great contributions to this economic and statistical field. In the book "The Long-term Movement of Production and Price" published by 1930, Kuznets put forward the core position of the long-term dynamic growth process in deepening the understanding of economic phenomena. In Kuznets' view, limiting economic analysis to static equilibrium theory will hinder its theoretical development. Kuznets uncompromisingly insisted on the importance of long-term investigation. He pointed out: "If we don't know the total process of changes that demand and supply depend on and the influence that the former may have on the latter, how can our research on the instantaneous and static responses of demand and supply be comprehensive?" In the study of economic growth, Kuznets' method is obvious: compare the growth quantity of a country or a group of countries in different periods, compare the cross-sectional data of characteristic curves of some countries in different development stages at a specific time, and study the related factors and their relationships. Although Kuznets also studies the differences of regional growth patterns, he thinks that "country" is the most suitable unit for research, mainly because the dominant * * * has the ability to promote or hinder economic growth. 19711In February, Kuznets, as a Nobel Prize winner, gave a speech in Stockholm and put forward six interrelated aspects of modern economic growth. The most important of these is the rapid growth of total output and population; The second important factor is the growth rate of production efficiency; The third aspect of the economic structure has changed from agricultural production to manufacturing and service industries; The fourth aspect is the transformation of social structure and way of thinking; The fifth aspect is the interdependence between countries caused by the transformation of communication and transportation technology; The last aspect is the signs of differentiation in the world economy. The main works Kuznets' main works are: Periodic Fluctuation of American Retail and Wholesale Trade (1925); Long-term movement of production and price (1930); Seasonal fluctuation of industry and trade (1933); Commodity flow and capital formation (1938); National income and its composition (1941); GNI since 1869 (1946); Economic changes (1954); Six lectures on economic growth (1959); Capital in American economy (1961); Modern economic growth (1966); Economic growth of countries (1971); Population, capital and growth (1973); Growth, population and income distribution (1979), etc.