Model essay on international economic situation: Changes in the world economic situation and its impact on China Since the financial crisis in 2008, the world economy has been struggling for nearly six years. At present, the international economic situation is still complicated and changeable, the low-speed growth trend of the world economy will continue, various forms of protectionism are obviously on the rise, the potential inflationary pressure is greater, and the world economy is still in a period of deep transformation and adjustment. This judgment means that the international economic environment will have many influences on China's economic development in the short and medium term.
1. Will the world economy continue to present itself? Weak growth? model
Both the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the United Nations have lowered their economic growth expectations in the 20 13 World Economic Outlook Report, which shows that it will be a long time before the global economy can completely shake off the impact of the financial crisis, and the overall situation has not improved significantly. The pace of global economic recovery is still heavy, and the economic growth rate will remain sluggish.
The American economy continues to recover. On the whole, among the economies of the United States, Europe and Japan, the United States is relatively good, with an economic growth rate of 2.2% in 20 12 and about 2.0% in 20 13. One reason is that household balance sheets are constantly improving. But at present, the main problem in the United States is enterprise investment. Various data show that American enterprises now have trillions of dollars in their hands, and government investment has begun to decline.
The euro zone is struggling with economic recovery. The situation in Europe is not optimistic. In 20 12 years, the economic growth rate of the euro zone was -0.6%. In 20 13 years, the situation is relatively better, but it is still negative growth, probably between-0.5% and-0. This has a lot to do with the government's spending cuts.
The situation in Japan is quite controversial. This is mainly because Abe has implemented the so-called? Abenomics? Policy. At the beginning of 20 13, the Abe regime couldn't wait to launch a large-scale monetary easing policy, which opened the door. Abenomics? A prelude to. Subsequently, the yen depreciated in free fall, and the Japanese stock market rocketed, which made people believe it for a time? Abenomics? It can be a panacea to save the Japanese economy. However, since May, the momentum of the sharp fall of the yen and the sharp rise of Japanese stocks has come to an abrupt end, and it has been replaced by a roller coaster-like ups and downs. The Japanese media suddenly lamented. Abenomics? The first arrow has probably fallen into the hands of overseas hedge funds and international venture capitalists? Playthings? . Unfortunately, tied to this arrow is the future of Japan's economy and the well-being of the Japanese people. But one thing is certain: Abenomics cannot solve the deep-seated problems facing the Japanese economy. The problems of enterprise competitiveness and structural reform cannot be solved by injecting liquidity.
Economic growth in most developing countries and emerging economies has slowed down. The speed of developed countries has declined, and the pace of economic growth in developing countries has also slowed down due to the sharp drop in external demand and domestic economic adjustment. Among the BRICS countries, India's annual growth rate in 20 13 years should be around 6%. But there are also many problems in Indian economy, one of which is inflation. The annual growth rate of Brazil, Russia and South Africa is around 3%; The economic situation of ASEAN countries has been good in recent years, with the growth rate reaching 5.6% in the first quarter of 20 13. It is likely to be 6% for the whole year.
In short, the current economic situation shows that what caused the international financial crisis? An emergency? Turn? Chronic illness? It evolved into the most serious and longest-lasting economic crisis after World War II. Although the prospect of global economic recovery is not optimistic, profound changes have taken place. At present, the three major economies of the United States, Japan and Europe are tending to embark on different recovery processes, showing a diversified trend: the virtual economy and the real economy in the United States are relatively stable; Japan is due to implementation? Abenomics? The virtual economy is beginning to pick up, but whether it can stimulate the real economy is still unknown; The euro zone has not got rid of the sovereign debt crisis, and neither the virtual economy nor the real economy shows signs of recovery.
Second, the impact on China's economic development.
No matter in the short term or in the long term, the international economic environment will have many influences on China's economic development.
1. The international financial crisis has accelerated the changes in the world economic structure, which helps to enhance the discourse power of Chinese dialects.
Due to the international financial crisis, more and more emerging and developing countries, represented by China, have been closely integrated into it.
In the global international division of labor chain, it began to play an increasingly important role in coordinating the global response to the financial crisis. In this situation, China's position, influence and discourse power have been continuously improved, and China's position, discourse power and influence in global economic governance have made a great leap, basically changing its role from passive to active, from periphery to core, and from cooperating with discussions to participating in decision-making.
2. Factors such as shrinking external demand and increasing friction directly impact China's exports.
The decline in the growth rate of world trade led to a sharp decline in China's import and export trade. Most importantly, whenever the world economy is depressed, major developed countries will sacrifice the banner of trade protection, and various trade and investment barriers will increase significantly. At present and in the future, the trade friction faced by China is becoming more and more normal and complicated. Trade friction will run through the whole process of China's transformation from a big trading country to a powerful trading country, and it will be a long-term and arduous task to deal with trade friction.
3. Innovation competitiveness faces the risk of being amplified.
After the financial crisis, in order to revive local industries, developed countries such as the United States and Europe will? Re-industrialization? As an important strategy to rebuild competitive advantage, policies and measures such as vigorously developing emerging industries, encouraging scientific and technological innovation and supporting the development of small and medium-sized enterprises have been introduced one after another. However, in the face of a new wave of industrial revolution centered on digitalization and intelligentization of manufacturing industry, China lacks innovation ability, and the gap with developed countries in Europe and America in the high-end technology field is at risk of being widened again.
Third, China's coping methods.
The Party proposed to accurately judge the changes in the connotation and conditions of the important strategic opportunity period, and the Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the need to profoundly understand, grasp and make good use of the new opportunities brought about by changes in the international environment. These expositions have pointed out the direction and put forward requirements for us to correctly understand and grasp the current world situation and the development environment of China. Historical experience has proved that doing business and doing things will get twice the result with half the effort; The situation is unclear, and if you go against the trend, you will rarely make achievements. In the period of deep transformation and adjustment of the world economy, we should take advantage of the situation and strive to seek greater national interests.
China has strong coping capacity and other domestic favorable factors, which can offset or weaken the adverse effects of the external environment. Since the reform and opening up, China has actively attracted foreign direct investment, brought a lot of low-end technologies, and promoted China's technological progress.
Under the complicated international economic situation, the key is to seize new opportunities and promote the transformation of economic development mode. First of all, insist on expanding domestic demand, maintain a reasonable investment growth rate and optimize the structure, especially strive to expand consumer demand, and establish a long-term mechanism for consumer demand growth in the process of promoting urbanization and urban-rural development integration. Secondly, we should adopt a more proactive strategy of opening to the outside world, cultivate new advantages in international competition of our goods and services, and especially accelerate the formation of new advantages in China's open economy through institutional mechanism reform and policy support.
Judging from the current international economic situation and China's foreign policy, the world economy is on the rise of a new economic cycle. In the next five years ~ 10, the world economy will develop faster than in the 1980s and 1990s. The rise of developing powers such as China, Indian, Russian and Brazil will accelerate the adjustment of international economic relations and the evolution of the pattern, and the trend of multipolarization will become increasingly obvious. American economy? Twin deficits? , making the development of the world economy unbalanced. The depreciation of the US dollar and soaring oil prices have increased global economic risks, but the overall trend of the world economy is still improving.
Last year, the world economy grew by nearly 5%, the best in the past 30 years. This year, due to the weak economies of the euro zone and Japan, the global output growth rate will slow down.
The American economy is still the engine of the world economy. International institutions and economists generally believe that the US economy will continue to expand steadily. Despite the impact of high oil prices, it still faces finance and trade? Twin deficits? However, the American economy is endogenous and its growth momentum will not change. The reasons are: 1, strong recovery of enterprise investment and continuous growth of household consumption. 2. Although the era of low interest rates has ended, the macro environment is still relaxed. 3、? New economy? Although it lacks new motivation, its vitality reappears. In addition, the Obama administration's continued tax cuts, the weak dollar and the moderate decline in oil prices are all conducive to the continued expansion of the US economy.
Japan suffered from the Fukushima nuclear crisis, and its economic recession and recovery were struggling. Last year, international institutions were generally optimistic about the Japanese economy. Japan's economy was at a standstill in the first half of this year and may resume growth in the second half. However, Japan's economic recovery depends not on domestic demand, but on foreign trade. Because, at present, it is still difficult to support Japan's economic recovery only by domestic demand. It can be seen that the current Japanese economic foundation is still fragile. First, the impact of soaring oil prices on the economy began to appear; Second, domestic demand is still not strong; Third, economic development depends heavily on exports.
Economic growth in the euro zone is slow, but the recovery momentum can be maintained. After two consecutive years of downturn, the euro zone economy grew by 2% last year. Although it is lower than the IMF's estimated 2.2%, it is still the best passive continuous appreciation of the euro in the past four years. High oil prices have begun to affect the economic recovery in the euro zone.
Asia's economic growth has peaked, but it is still the fastest growing region in the world. The macro-economy in this region is basically stable, the effect of intra-regional cooperation is prominent, and a mutually beneficial and win-win pattern is taking shape. The development trend is that East Asia will continue to grow rapidly. Four little dragons? Moderate expansion; Southeast Asia's economy will recover steadily, and Vietnam will become the leader; South Asia's economic growth momentum is not weak, and India has become a regional leader; Central Asia's economy is growing rapidly, but the risks of resource-based economy will increase. In the next few years, Asia will maintain the high growth of the global economy and remain the growth center of the world economy.
The economy of developing countries will enter a period of steady growth. International institutions are generally optimistic about the medium and long-term economic prospects of developing countries. At present, developing countries are facing unprecedented opportunities for development:
1. The overall macroeconomic environment has improved.
2. The price of international raw materials continues to rise.
3. South-South economic and trade cooperation has been significantly strengthened. The acceleration of regional cooperation between Asia and Latin America, Asia and Africa, Asia and Latin America has promoted the vigorous development of pan-regional, regional and bilateral cooperation among developing countries.
4. Developing countries such as China, Indian, Russian, Brazil and South Africa have accelerated their economic development and played an unprecedented demonstration effect and leading role in the regional economy.
The current world economic situation and its influence on China;
1, the world economy keeps growing, and China's foreign trade market space is still relatively large.
2. The unbalanced development of the world economy has a significant impact on China's processing trade, and the general trade has maintained rapid growth. .
3. The high unemployment rate in major economies aggravates the risk of world economic friction, and most of the trade frictions initiated by countries such as Europe and America are initiated by the unemployment sector.
4. High oil prices have aggravated the import cost of China, which may lead to cost-driven inflation.
5. Adjust the focus of foreign investment policy according to the trend of foreign direct investment in the world. We will shift the focus to the directional development of some service industries, give priority to the development of service trade of productive services, and focus on the development of export-oriented service industries such as transportation and commercial distribution services related to trade in goods.
There are five outstanding problems in the current economic operation:
There are still many restrictive factors to further increase grain output and farmers' income. There is limited room for the grain purchase price to continue to rise. The prices of agricultural materials such as chemical fertilizers remain high. It is prone to floods.
There are still many new projects in fixed assets investment, and the investment structure is still unreasonable. Because the institutional reasons for investment expansion have not been fundamentally eliminated, investment growth in some places is still too fast.
The profit growth rate of industrial enterprises has declined. The benefits of the industry have been clearly differentiated. The profits of coal, oil exploitation, ferrous and nonferrous metals and other extractive industries increased rapidly, while the profits of building materials, petroleum processing, transportation equipment, chemical fiber and other industries declined more.
The overall situation of coal, electricity and oil transportation is still tight. Because the growth mode has not changed fundamentally, the utilization rate of resources is low and the waste is serious, the contradiction between energy and resource constraints is still outstanding.
The situation of safe production is still grim. The phenomenon of illegal production against the wind still exists, with frequent serious accidents and frequent accidents such as road traffic and dangerous chemicals.
Energy conservation is the fundamental way to solve the energy problem in China.
China has a large population and relatively insufficient energy resources, and its per capita possession is far below the world average. The per capita remaining recoverable reserves of coal, oil and natural gas are only 58.6%, 7.69% and 7.05% of the world average respectively. At present, China is in an important stage of accelerating industrialization and urbanization. The consumption intensity of energy resources is high, the consumption scale is expanding, and the contradiction between energy supply and demand is becoming increasingly prominent. In the future, with the further expansion of economic scale, energy demand will continue to grow rapidly.
Therefore, energy is a prominent bottleneck restricting China's economic and social development at present and for a long time to come, which is directly related to the smooth realization of the goal of building a well-off society in an all-round way.
Energy conservation is the essential requirement of Scientific Outlook on Development.
China is rich in coal but short of oil. Among the fossil resources that replace oil, coal can meet the demand matching with the shortage of oil in the near and medium term10 million tons, that is, synthesizing oil by liquefied coal is one of the most practical and feasible ways to realize the basic self-sufficiency of petroleum products in China. Coal can be converted into gasoline and diesel by direct or indirect liquefaction. Direct coal liquefaction has harsh operating conditions and strong dependence on coal types. Indirect liquefaction of coal is to make syngas from coal gasification first, and then convert it into gasoline and diesel oil through catalytic synthesis. The operating conditions of indirect coal liquefaction are mild, which is almost independent of coal type.
The utilization of nuclear fission energy is more and more extensive, and the related technology is improving day by day, which is a feasible and reliable scheme to solve the energy shortage problem in the next century. The construction, operation and maintenance of nuclear fission power stations, the exploitation of nuclear materials and the disposal of nuclear waste will form a huge industrial chain in the next century. The utilization of nuclear fission energy is limited by the limited reserves of nuclear materials on the earth and the difficulties and dangers of human nuclear waste disposal. Using nuclear fusion energy may be the most important way for mankind to finally solve the energy problem. Sunlight is the energy released by nuclear fusion of hydrogen in the sun. The main raw material of nuclear fusion is inexhaustible deuterium contained in the vast sea water, and its product is inert gas helium. Therefore, there is neither shortage of raw materials nor pollution problems such as nuclear waste or nuclear leakage in nuclear fusion.
The international environment is complex and changeable. At present, the international environment is complex and changeable, and peace and development are the mainstream, but the factors that affect peaceful development still exist, such as power politics, hegemonism, terrorism, regional conflicts, nuclear weapons proliferation, natural disasters, transnational crimes, diseases, smuggling and drug trafficking, etc. Therefore, it is necessary to strengthen international cooperation.
It is of great significance for China's diplomacy to judge the current international situation and communicate with big countries. At present, the competition of comprehensive national strength among countries is becoming increasingly fierce, and the relationship between countries is cooperation and competition, dependence and containment. The overall stability of the international situation provides opportunities for the development of China, but hegemonism and power politics still exist, and China still faces severe challenges.
China should properly handle its relations with big countries, especially with the United States, Russia, the European Union and Japan. The unilateral policy of the United States has been frustrated and it actively seeks international cooperation, but the strategy of the United States to dominate the world has not changed. On the one hand, China should expand cooperation and increase the positive factors in the diplomacy between the two countries; On the other hand, we must adhere to principles and safeguard interests.
The continuous eastward expansion of NATO has seriously affected Russia's expansion in Europe, and Russia has turned its attention to Asia. At the same time, Russia is rich in natural resources, which is of great significance to China in terms of energy supply and border issues.
The EU is actively strengthening its strategic cooperation with the United States, strengthening its dialogue with China, and seeking cooperation with China on major power issues. At the same time, we also saw the huge market brought by the rapid economic development in China.
Because Japan can't face historical issues correctly, it actively expands and establishes its status as a big country, and actively cooperates with the United States to contain China. The opposition between China and Japan is obvious, and it is not easy to handle Sino-Japanese relations well, but the long-term rigidity of Sino-Japanese relations will not be conducive to the development of China.