Retail investors don't have a lot of money, and often like to go in and out frequently, seeking so-called compound interest. In this process, I often feel that I don't know why I set it as soon as I buy it, but it will go up as soon as I cut it, and I am in a dilemma.
One reason is that large households take advantage of the market atmosphere, but in the final analysis, this is the use of the reconciliation period. We can understand the mystery in more detail by listing harmonics.
The above are curves with periods of 1: 3: 7 respectively, and they are superimposed as the bottom curves. Here, it is assumed that there is no obvious difference in the amount of funds of each operator, and 1: 3: 7 is an investment preference participant for simulation, intraday operation, 3-day operation and weekly operation.
We can see that the superposition curve seems disorderly, but it is a common expected expression of market fluctuation, which will be discussed in detail later.
It can be found that a wave of rising prices in the market is formed by multiple cycle (level) participants who are optimistic and buy up at the same time, as shown by the first red arrow of each group of curves.
On the contrary, a wave of down cycles in the market is formed by multiple cycle (level) participants who are bearish and throw down at the same time.
The beginning and end of the trend are determined by the participants with the largest cycle operation and the largest amount of funds in the market, and the participants with small cycles echo it.
As can be seen from the final form, with the increase of transaction density, the cycle becomes smaller and the effective transaction decreases. As shown in the figure, the red arrow represents an effective profitable operation, and the black arrow represents a relatively high point, which is a risky operation. One-day traders have only one-third of the effective transactions in two weeks, while three-day traders have only one-half of the effective transactions in two weeks, and only the weekly level can control the whole market.
So we have a conclusion that according to the rhythm of this periodic movement, we can find some clues based on periodic movement, which will guide us how to build a warehouse at the bottom and ship it at the top.
Moreover, we can easily find that the so-called "life lies in Kangbo", "trend is king" and "follow the trend". It is also the same reason that following the general trend and the biggest trend of the market is the most basic thing that can finally make a profit.
To solve these problems, it is necessary to return to the essence of the market-the participants behind it will consider the problem and first ask, who is our opponent?
Here, we may have found that this is a big fish market in eat small fish, and our competitors are our former selves-small retail investors who come and go without direction. We need to stand in the general direction and be consistent with the big family in order to win on the battlefield. I don't like to call them bookmakers because it's a gambling term. In a mature market, there will be no bookmakers. People with the same general direction can jointly form the holders of the best chips in the market, and we can and should be a part of them in the past.
Know yourself and know yourself, and you will win every battle. Understand your own position, and then look at the above three questions, naturally clear.
The small direction is determined by the market atmosphere, and it is easy to be incited and panic. Such a small direction is often sharp, which is the beginning of market changes. Small directions need to be observed, and small changes should not be captured. Laozi said, "I often have no desire to see its wonders, but I often want to see its worries." The change in the general direction is imperceptible, and the small direction we can see is suitable for observing the changing boundary. When the market fluctuates, observe our inner restlessness, that is, observe the direction change of the whole market.
Returning to market participants, the greater the cycle direction, the higher the effectiveness. The trend of the maximum cycle depends on the participants in the market and the maximum cycle, which is a fundamental problem.
For the stock market, it depends on the company's positioning, market value and the moat of its long-term development.
For the currency circle, it depends on faith.
As long as the essential foundation of this general direction is unshakable, the content of participants in this direction will remain unchanged, even incremental. Just like a country, if it does not experience war and disaster, its economy will generally rise steadily.
In the general direction, our technical analysis needs to pay attention to the "maximum observable period". What is different from the "maximum period" here is the word "observable".
My definition standard is that in an image, there are significant vertices and relative lows, which present a typical periodic structure.
It can be seen here that the maximum observable period of several large markets has obvious cyclical laws.
The maximum observable periods of Shanghai Stock Exchange and BTC both show similar periodic superposition structure.
In fact, as long as human beings put their energy into things, we will all see similar trends.
This is also considered as the bubble curve of the market, which appears repeatedly in the initial stage of the speculative market.
Bubble curve is the final result of superposition of multiple attention periods:
Relying on these reliable structures, it will provide effective escort for our operation at the maximum observable level and ensure that our circulation is effective.
Throughout 20 19, I have been paying attention to and exploring this issue. The big level is upward and the small level is downward. How will the market go?
We can move the previous multi-period overlay back and observe its periodic structure.
Rising wave D65438 with a period of 7+0->; e 1；
C65438F 1 wave with a period of 3+0- >;
Four groups of downward waves with a period of 1;
By observing the final curve of their projection in the red box interval, we can find that:
A small level will affect the stage and cause fluctuations. But the final maximum and minimum values R 1 and U 1 depend on the large period.
Small cycle will have icing on the cake effect, and this icing on the cake is the greed and panic behavior of small cycle retail investors, which further promotes the formation of the top and bottom.