Seven new cities. A number in Tianjin housing construction plan (20 1 1-20 15) suddenly pushed Tianjin into the spotlight.
According to the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" of housing construction in Tianjin released in the middle of 5438+ 10, it is estimated that the total housing construction in Tianjin during the five-year planning period will be about 95 million ~1200,000 square meters, including 48.75 million square meters of new affordable housing and 46.25 million ~ 71250,000 square meters of new commercial housing. The plan is detailed by region. Compared with Binhai New Area, Central City and the four districts around the city, the planning says that the seven key new towns are more concentrated.
However, in the eyes of many people in the industry, many new cities have been launched in unison, which is really worrying about "indigestion" for Tianjin, which has a high inventory of commercial housing.
"Tianjin is preparing for land marketing, and the essence is to sell land in another way." Shen Wen, general manager of the research center of Kerry Information Group in Tianjin, pointed out in an interview with China Real Estate News.
Most of the new towns that have been planned for many years are still wasteland.
In fact, the construction planning of several new cities in Tianjin has a long history, and the initial number of new cities is more.
In July 2006, the State Council approved the Tianjin Urban Master Plan (2005-2020). 1 1 Planned new cities, namely Jixian, Baodi, Wuqing, Ninghe, Hangu, Xiqing, Jinnan, Jinghai, Dagang, Beijing-Tianjin and Tuanbo.
In the draft of Tianjin Spatial Development Strategic Plan published in 2009, Tianjin adjusted the construction of new cities, pointing out that "seven new cities, namely Jixian, Baodi, Wuqing, Ninghe, Jinghai, Beijing-Tianjin and Tuanbo, will be built according to the standards of medium-sized cities".
The goal of new town construction in the Twelfth Five-Year Plan of Tianjin Housing Construction is basically based on the above-mentioned spatial development strategy. In this way of thinking, several new cities have their own characteristics and perform their duties: Wuqing New City should be developed into an important new city, a high-tech industrial base, a modern logistics base and an ecologically livable city on the axis of comprehensive development of Jingbin; Baodi New Town has developed into an important commercial logistics base, processing and manufacturing base and an ecologically livable city in Beijing, Tianjin and Tangshan. Jinghai New Town has developed into a modern manufacturing base, a regional logistics center and an ecologically livable city. Ninghe New Town has developed into a gateway to the northeast of China, a processing and manufacturing base of Beijing, Tianjin and Tangshan, a commercial and logistics base and an ecologically livable city. Jixian New Town has developed into a famous historical and cultural city in Tianjin and a distinctive cultural, tourism and ecological city in the north of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei. Beijing-Tianjin New Town has developed into a modern service industry base in Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan area, featuring leisure tourism, conferences, exhibitions, culture and education, and showing the characteristics of northern water cities as an ecologically livable city. Tuanbo New City has developed into an eco-livable city with scientific and technological research and development, education and sports, creative industries and tourism and holiday.
Tianjin real estate industry insiders told reporters that although these new cities have been planned for many years, most of them are land planning. Except for a few new towns in Wuqing and Ninghe, most of them are still in a wasteland state, and the project construction has not yet started.
Under the high inventory of the market, the prospect of the new city is not clear.
Although the construction of the new city is about to undergo substantial operation, the real estate market in Tianjin has entered the stage of "indigestion" early.
From June 20 1 1 to June 20 12, the ratio of housing sales to supply in Tianjin was less than 1 for five consecutive months, and the market supply exceeded demand. In this context, Tianjin's residential inventory reached a record high, and the clearance period reached a record 29 months (clearance period = current saleable units/average six-month forward sold units), which was 19 months higher than the relative low in previous years. By the end of June 20 12, the available housing market in Tianjin was nearly140,000 sets, and the inventory pressure was huge.
And this high inventory situation has been maintained until this year. As of August 3, 2065438, the saleable area of Tianjin residential market was 20,408,300 square meters, an increase of 580,000 square meters from the previous month. Although the liquidation cycle has declined slightly, it is still at a high level of 20 months. The digestibility of saleable area in different districts is also different: in August, for example, the saleable area in the six districts of Tianjin and the four districts around the city decreased by 29,500 square meters and 94,600 square meters respectively, while the saleable area in the outer suburbs increased significantly, approaching 6 million square meters, with an increase of 204,900 square meters. The suburban counties are precisely the areas where Tianjin intends to build many new cities.
Therefore, many people in the industry are not optimistic about the development prospects of the new city. "Tianjin is a third-tier city in the eyes of a real estate person. Tianjin is not attractive to the surrounding population, but it has a large amount of development. " Tao, chairman of the real estate service agency, once said bluntly.
"This plan, including the construction of several new cities, is more of an urban development concept. In addition to densely populated places like Wuqing, other new cities such as Baodi and Jixian have a high number of houses with local population and the market is basically saturated. " Shen Wen made it clear that it does not recognize this model of spreading cakes in cities and then building satellite cities.
New town planning is just a land marketing?
According to the data of Ke Rui Research Center, from September 20 1 1 to September 20 13, the total supply area of commercial housing in Tianjin was 33.348 million square meters, but the transaction area was only 26164,000 square meters. In this context, the new town planning is naturally questioned.
In Shen Wen's view, the essence of Tianjin's new town planning is nothing more than "land marketing". "After the new town planning, the price of planned land will rise. Moreover, the Tianjin municipal government can also obtain more land acquisition indicators by planning a new city. "
For the Tianjin municipal government, it seems that the land market really needs a booster. 20 13 In the first half of the year, the supply of land in Tianjin was 38 1 case, a sharp drop of 30% year-on-year. However, it is worth noting that suburban counties, represented by wuqing district, have become large land sellers, accounting for nearly 60% of the city's land supply, of which Baodi District accounts for 15.46%, and wuqing district has the highest proportion, reaching 2 1.95%.
But unlike Baodi, Wuqing is more favored by the industry. Among the seven planned new towns, although people in the industry generally doubt whether the new town will have enough market demand in the future, they are much more optimistic about the prospect of Wuqing New Town.
Yang Bangjun, general manager of Beijing-Tianjin Tongcheng (Tianjin) Investment Co., Ltd., the first real estate company to develop multiple projects in Tianjin, said in an interview with this reporter that Wuqing's Beijing-Tianjin transportation hub has obvious location advantages, good overall planning and the most opportunities for future development. "Comparatively speaking, the development of Jixian County is much worse, with slow development and no new city appearance; Due to the lack of industrial support, the activity and urban atmosphere of Baodi New Town are not very good. Ninghe New Town is the most backward, and it is too far from the center of Tianjin. "
Even if we are optimistic about Wuqing New Town, this will not reduce Shen Wen's worries about the construction of several new towns in Tianjin. "These new towns are all areas with oversupply. With Tianjin's existing urban financial capacity, urban population's ability to pay and market demand, it is impossible to digest so many new cities at once. If built in this way, Tianjin is likely to become the second Tangshan. " Shen Wen said.