Many provinces have GDP growth targets below 7% in 2022. Statistics show that some provinces are relatively optimistic and have set a higher goal of economic growth of 7%-9% in 2022. Many provinces have GDP growth targets below 7% in 2022.
The GDP growth target of many provinces in 2022 is below 7% 1 At the beginning of each year, the annual provincial local two conferences will be held in various places, and the provincial two conferences are also regarded as an important window for observing local economic and social development by the industry.
654381October 3, with the opening of the Fifth Session of the 11th CPPCC Central Committee in Xizang Autonomous Region, it marked the official entry of the whole country into the local two conferences in 2022. At present, it has entered the middle and late June of 65438+ 10, which is the intensive period of local two conferences. As of165438+ on October 20th, 22 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities have held local two conferences.
The reporter of China Business News noted that the published GDP growth rate of 202 1 local area is bright, but most places have slightly lowered the GDP growth target of 2022. According to the statistics of Guo Jin Securities, among the 22 published provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities, 8 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities have lowered their GDP growth targets, with an average decrease of 0.7 percentage points.
The industry experts interviewed said that the GDP growth rate in some places that have been announced at present is bright, which is consistent with the improvement of the national GDP growth rate and related to the local emphasis on developing high-end manufacturing and digital economy. However, the proposal of developing digital economy in 2022 shows the leading role of digital economy in China, which is a decision-making arrangement in line with the development trend of China. The digital economy is conducive to optimizing the economic structure, promoting the transformation of traditional industries and achieving high-quality economic development.
202 1 local economic report card is bright.
The reporter noticed that the economic transcripts of Tibet and Anhui in 20021year were more eye-catching. For example, on June 4, 2022, the fifth session of the 11th People's Congress of Xizang Autonomous Region opened in Lhasa. According to the meeting, Tibet's GDP in 20021year exceeded 200 billion yuan for the first time, an increase of about 7% over the previous year.
It is mentioned in the work report of the government of Anhui Province in 2022 (65438+ 10/7) that the GDP of the whole province is expected to increase by 8% in 2002 1 year, with the total amount exceeding 4 trillion yuan and the per capita GDP exceeding110,000 US dollars, and the target of GDP growth in 2022 is proposed to be more than 7%.
Then, on October 20th, 2022 10, 65438, the fifth session of the 13th National People's Congress of Jiangsu Province was opened. According to the work report of Jiangsu provincial government, in 20021year, the regional GDP of Jiangsu province exceeded 1 1 trillion yuan, reaching10.6 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.6%, and the total reached the level of trillion yuan.
In this regard, Pan Helin, member of the Expert Committee on Information and Communication Economy of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and executive director of the Digital Economy Research Institute of Zhongnan University of Economics and Law, said in an interview with the reporter of China Business News on1October 2 1 day: "In 20021year, China's economy benefited from the timely and proper disposal of the epidemic, balancing the relationship between epidemic prevention and development, and all localities seized the relief of the epidemic. At the same time, due to China's timely disposal of the epidemic, China's industry supported the global supply chain, thus maintaining economic growth. "
Pan Helin also pointed out to reporters: "China's local governments attach great importance to the development of high-end manufacturing and digital economy, such as new energy vehicles, biopharmaceuticals, raw materials, new energy power and other industries have gained strong growth momentum, so the 20021local economic transcripts are generally bright."
Ying Wenqian, a macro analyst of China Minsheng Bank Research Institute, also told the reporter of China Business News on June 65438+1October 2 1: "In 20021year, due to the low epidemic base last year, the national GDP growth reached 8. 1%, a record high in recent years. At present, the local GDP growth rate announced is eye-catching, which is also consistent with the improvement of the national GDP growth rate and is the epitome of the whole country. In addition, it is the price factor. In 20021year, China's overall inflation increased compared with previous years, and the nominal GDP growth rate reached 12.8%, much faster than the actual growth rate of 8. 1%, so the total GDP also reached a new level, reaching 1 14 trillion yuan. This is also the reason why the GDP of various places has also reached a higher level, forming a more eye-catching result. "
Many places have slightly lowered their GDP growth targets in 2022.
Although the 20021local economic report card is eye-catching, the reporter noted that in 2022, some places slightly lowered their economic growth targets for 2022. For example, both Beijing and Guizhou lowered their GDP growth targets 1 percentage point: Beijing's economic growth targets in 2022 were lowered from "above 6%" and 5438+0 in 2026 to "above 5%", and Guizhou's economic growth targets in 2022 were also lowered from "around 8%" to "around 7%".
Pan Helin told reporters: "This is mainly because the global spread of Omicron has delayed the global economic recovery, and sporadic regional epidemics in China have also delayed the economic opening up. Due to uncertainty, all localities have rationally chosen to lower their economic growth targets in 2022 and pay more attention to the optimization of economic structure, rather than blindly pursuing scale improvement. "
Ying Wenqian believes: "The important factor for local governments to lower their growth targets in 2022 is that China's economic growth has recovered well from the epidemic in the past 202 1 year, thus forming a high year-on-year base. In contrast, the growth rate of 202 1 is relatively high, which is also caused by the relatively low epidemic base in 2020. Therefore, the downward adjustment of growth targets in 2022 is largely due to technical reasons for the increase in the base. "
The digital economy is concerned.
Judging from the information released by the local two conferences, the digital economy has attracted attention. For example, the work report of Jiangsu provincial government pointed out that in 2022, Jiangsu will accelerate the development of digital economy and continuously improve the level of industrial modernization and the core competitiveness of manufacturing industry.
The work report of Guizhou provincial government also shows that in 20021,the digital economy in Guizhou accelerated its breakthrough, accounting for 34%. The report also pointed out that in 2022, the main goals of high-quality development in Guizhou are: the added value of manufacturing industry accounts for about 2 1% of regional GDP; Digital economy and green economy account for about 36% and 46% of the regional GDP respectively.
In this regard, Pan Helin told reporters: "The digital economy has become an important driving factor for China's economy. All localities have accelerated the development of digital economy, and have seen the leading role of digital economy in China's economy, which is a decision-making arrangement in line with China's development trend. The digital economy is conducive to optimizing the economic structure, promoting the transformation of traditional industries and achieving high-quality economic development. "
The State Council recently issued the 14th Five-Year Plan for the Development of Digital Economy. In the industry's view, this is the first national-level special plan in the field of digital economy in China, and the top-level design of digital economy continues to improve. The plan also proposes that by 2025, the digital economy will move towards a full-scale expansion period, and the added value of the core industries of the digital economy will account for 10% of the GDP.
Wen Xi also told reporters: "All localities have proposed to develop the digital economy, which conforms to the general direction of the times. Especially in the post-epidemic era, on the one hand, the prevention and control of the epidemic has spawned more Internet demands that were not available in the past; on the other hand, many new concepts and business models have gradually become feasible with the progress of technology, such as the recently popular concept of meta-universe. Therefore, all localities have proposed to accelerate the development of the digital economy in order to gain the first-Mover advantage and seize the favorable track as soon as possible under the new situation. "
Many provinces have GDP growth targets below 7% in 2022.
As of June 65438+1October 2 1, 28 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the Central Government) have held local two conferences to release government work reports or annual economic data. According to the statistics of 265438+20th Century Business Herald, under the general tone of "keeping the word steady and striving for progress", most provinces set the GDP growth target below 7%, and seek to develop infrastructure investment in advance by actively expanding effective investment. Carry out diversified activities, promote the recovery of consumption, especially contact consumption, cultivate new consumption growth points, and promote the stable and healthy economic development in 2022.
At the same time, some provinces are relatively optimistic, setting a high target of 7%-9% for economic growth in 2022. Taking Anhui as an example, Xia Xingping, director and researcher of the Investment and Financing Research Institute of Anhui Economic Research Institute, pointed out to the reporter of 2 1 Century Business Herald that the GDP growth target of 7% in 2022 not only implements the central spirit, but also conforms to the economic operation of Anhui Province, which reflects the stability of the word and the progress of stability. At the same time, considering efforts to narrow the gap with Shanghai, Jiangsu and Zhejiang, Anhui must maintain a high growth rate in the coming period. Judging from the supporting factors of economic growth, Anhui investment has a good foundation to achieve rapid growth; Stabilizing and expanding consumer demand is guaranteed; In 2022, exports will still be in the fast lane, and "steady growth is based and guaranteed".
Growth rate: at least 10 GDP growth target is set at 7% and above.
According to the statistics of 2 1 century business herald, as of June 2 1 day, at least 10 provinces in China have proposed that the GDP growth rate in 2022 is expected to be 7% or above. Specifically, the growth rate of Henan Province, Hubei Province, Yunnan Province, Guizhou Province and Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region is expected to be around 7%, and the growth rate of Anhui Province, Jiangxi Province, Xizang Autonomous Region Province, Jilin Province and Hainan Province is expected to be above 7%. Most of these provinces have maintained rapid economic development in the past year, and 8 of the above-mentioned 10 provinces have a GDP growth rate of not less than 7% in 20021year.
How to achieve the economic development goal of "striving for progress while maintaining stability"? 2 1 Century Business Herald reporter noted that for the supply side, a number of proposals will guarantee the vitality of market players and promote the high-quality development of the industry; For the demand side, many places are positioned to promote effective investment and expand and upgrade social consumption.
Market subject is the carrier of economic strength, and it is also the focus of consolidating the foundation of economic development. The reporter of 265438+20 th Century Business Herald noted that in 2022, many places will adopt greater tax reduction and fee reduction policies, with a view to realizing the continuous activity of market players and ensuring the vitality of the supply side. Among them, Henan proposed to deepen the policy of "ten thousand people help ten thousand enterprises" and implement the policy of tax reduction and fee reduction, value-added tax is levied first and then returned to the new one to help the sustainable development of market players; Jiangxi has set the goal of reducing the burden on market players by 200 billion yuan and increasing the number of market players by more than 600,000. Shaanxi proposed that the new combination of tax reduction and fee reduction will reduce the burden on market players and help the poor; Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region will set the goal of cultivating eight new manufacturing "individual champions", 10 "specialized new giant enterprises" and about 100 laws and regulations upgrading enterprises to promote the self-motivation and continuous activity of market players.
On the demand side, promoting the sustained recovery of consumption after the epidemic and cultivating a variety of new consumption have become the key tasks of these provinces with high economic growth plans in 2022.
For example, Henan Province proposes to stabilize the consumption of bulk commodities such as automobiles, household appliances and furniture, strive to create new landmarks in the consumer market, and support Zhengzhou and Luoyang in building international consumption center cities. Jilin Province promotes the upgrading and expansion of its own consumption by developing new tourism, cultivating new e-commerce and expanding new consumption.
Anhui has developed rapidly in recent years. The reporter of 265438+20th Century Business Herald noticed that in the arrangement of promoting consumption and stabilizing growth in 2022, Anhui will definitely pay more attention to improving the level of urban consumption, including promoting the construction of multi-level consumption centers and Hefei's construction of an international consumption center, implementing the action plan of "three industries to strengthen the city", and "coming to Anhui" series of consumption actions, optimizing the consumption environment in multiple dimensions and improving the consumption infrastructure in a two-pronged manner.
In this regard, Xia Xingping believes that in the next step, Anhui should do everything possible to promote the high-quality coordinated development of the three industrial systems and initiate the implementation of the three industrial high-quality coordinated development action plans. In addition, Anhui should focus on primary production, secondary production and tertiary production, accelerate the construction of a strong agricultural province and a strong manufacturing province, improve consumption quality and expand consumption energy levels.
Investment: Properly promote infrastructure investment.
At present, China's economic development faces three major pressures: demand contraction, supply shock and expected weakening. 202 1 Central Economic Work Conference requires that in 2022, economic work should take stability as the top priority, all localities and departments should shoulder the responsibility of stabilizing the macro-economy, all parties should actively introduce policies conducive to economic stability, and the policy intensity should be appropriately advanced.
Affected by the epidemic situation in COVID-19 from the end of last year to the beginning of this year, the steady economic growth in the first quarter of 2022 and the whole year attracted much attention. In 202 1 year, the national GDP growth rate reached 8. 1%. Although the national GDP growth target in 2022 has not yet been released, according to the work reports of provincial governments in 2022, most of them set the GDP growth rate in 2022 at 5.5%-6.5%.
How to achieve this year's economic development goals? 265438+20 th Century Business Herald reporters further combed and found that many places have made it clear that this year, they will actively seize the "window period" of the state to increase the scale of government investment and moderately advance infrastructure investment, and expand effective investment by grasping the construction of key projects, thus promoting the economy to achieve "steady progress". Specifically, Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Hubei, Shanghai, Beijing, Anhui, Chongqing and other places clearly stated that in 2022, effective investment should be actively expanded and infrastructure investment should be moderately ahead.
How to understand the significance of moderately promoting infrastructure investment? How will it be promoted everywhere?
"Today's infrastructure investment is a strong support for tomorrow's urban economic and social development." Wang Huajie, deputy director of the Shanghai Municipal Development and Reform Commission, said at the press conference held on June 65438+1October 08 that expanding effective investment is an important content and an inherent requirement for strengthening existing economic advantages and expanding future development momentum.
Taking Shanghai as an example, Wang Huajie introduced that in 2022, Shanghai will mainly grasp three points in expanding effective investment and stabilizing economic development: First, adhere to planning guidance, give full play to the advantages of Shanghai's "14 th Five-Year Plan" early release and sufficient project reserves, continue to promote the upgrading of traditional infrastructure such as transportation, energy and ecological environment, improve the level of digitalization, intelligence, green and low carbon, and simultaneously accelerate the new layout of infrastructure services, cultivate new kinetic energy and support new tracks. Second, adhere to the combination of distance and distance, and actively promote the construction of key areas and weak links, which not only expands the current effective investment, fills in the shortcomings and strengths, but also enhances the development potential; Third, adhere to the unity of "time, degree and effect". Shanghai will focus on major projects related to the city's economic and social development, which will be implemented in the early period of the 14 th Five-Year Plan after scientific argumentation.
Not only that, many places attach importance to leading through major projects and frontier fields in expanding investment. For example, Beijing proposed to continue to maintain the investment intensity of 1000 billion yuan, Anhui launched an effective investment battle, and Shaanxi indicated that it would increase investment in key areas such as 5G network, next-generation Internet and Internet of Things.
As an economic province with GDP exceeding 1 0.2 trillion, in 2026, the investment in key projects in Guangdong Province exceeded1trillion yuan, 438+0, and the investment in fixed assets in Guangdong Province increased by 6.3%. In 2022, Guangdong will definitely focus on promoting the steady growth of investment. This year, 1570 key projects will be arranged with a total investment of about 7.67 trillion yuan and an annual planned investment of 900 billion yuan. Among them, new infrastructure has become the focus. For example, this year, Guangdong will accelerate the construction of Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area International Science and Technology Innovation Center and a comprehensive national science center, and accelerate the construction of Guangming, Songshan Lake and Nansha Science City; Optimize and upgrade the laboratory system, promote the construction of Pengcheng Laboratory and Guangzhou Laboratory, and strive to lay out a number of state key laboratories in emerging fields and interdisciplinary fields in Guangdong.
Liu Jinshan, director and professor of the Investment Consulting (Research) Center of Jinan University, analyzed that the arrangement of key projects in Guangdong in 2022 embodies several characteristics: First, the volume of 900 billion yuan is relatively high in the country, which will greatly boost the upstream industrial chain; The second is to go ahead, not only to stabilize the economic growth of that year, but also to provide leading capital for future economic development; The third is optimization, and the investment distribution matches the current economic structure optimization in Guangdong; Fourth, innovation. The allocation of key projects in Guangdong this year shows that the investment in scientific and technological innovation is very large.
Consumption: recovery and cultivation are two key words.
Steady growth requires not only expanding investment, but also promoting consumption.
Han Wenxiu, deputy director of the Office of the Central Financial and Economic Committee, said at the previous 20021-2022 China Economic Annual Meeting: "The huge potential of domestic demand is our advantage. We must implement the strategy of expanding domestic demand, promote the sustained recovery of consumption, actively expand effective investment, and pay attention to the combination of steady growth, structural adjustment and benefiting people's livelihood. "
Under the influence of COVID-19 epidemic, promoting consumption recovery has become the top priority of local economy in 2022. Judging from the government work report, many places clearly put forward that a series of consumption promotion activities will be carried out in 2022, such as building consumption gathering areas and issuing consumption vouchers, to further promote consumption recovery.
"Since the outbreak of the epidemic, various localities and departments have issued a series of policies and measures to promote consumption, and the effect has continued to show, and the consumer market has gradually picked up." 65438+1October 18, Jin Xiandong, director of the Policy Research Office of the National Development and Reform Commission, said at the press conference that the contribution rate of China's final consumption expenditure to economic growth in 20021year was 65.4%. Next, as the epidemic situation is effectively controlled, the effect of consumption promotion policy is further revealed, and new policies are further introduced, and consumption will continue to maintain recovery growth.
141October 14, the National Development and Reform Commission also issued the Notice on Doing a Good Job in Promoting Consumption in the Near Future, demanding that under the premise of accurately and effectively preventing and controlling the epidemic situation, we should seize the opportunities in the peak consumption seasons of traditional festivals such as the Spring Festival and the Lantern Festival, adapt to the changes in residents' consumption habits and the upgrading of consumption quality, tap consumption hotspots and growth points, further release residents' consumption potential, and promote the first quarter.
From the local point of view, accelerating the sustained recovery of consumption and cultivating new consumption have also become the clear tasks of promoting consumption in many places in 2022. The reporter of 265438+20th Century Business Herald noted that since the beginning of this year, on the basis of paying attention to online consumption, all localities have further emphasized the need to promote the recovery and development of offline consumption. For example, Sichuan proposed to hold a provincial consumption promotion conference in 2022 to create a number of cultural and sports tourism and business complexes, characteristic blocks, night culture and tourism consumption gathering areas; Shaanxi proposed to implement a three-year action plan to promote consumption growth in 2022, and carry out diversified consumption promotion activities around key areas such as automobiles, home appliances, household appliances and restaurants and entertainment to promote consumption, especially contact consumption.
In addition to promoting traditional consumption, many places also emphasize the need to promote the integration of consumer industries and cultivate new consumption such as life service industry by tapping regional characteristics. Taking Chongqing as an example, in 2022, it will tap Chongqing's characteristic culture, characteristic food and characteristic tourism resources, promote the linkage and integration of consumer industries, improve the quality of e-commerce, and promote online and offline integration and cross-border development of business travel formats.
In 20021year, Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou, Tianjin, Chongqing and other cities were approved to take the lead in developing international consumption center cities. Among them, Beijing, Guangdong, Chongqing and other provinces and cities that have held two sessions will also cultivate and build international consumption center cities as the top priority to boost consumption this year. For example, Beijing proposed that it should actively adapt to the changes in consumption formats caused by epidemic prevention and control, carry out in-depth special actions for international consumption center cities, encourage green consumption, enrich digital consumption, develop sports consumption, innovate life and cultural tourism consumption, vigorously incubate new consumer brands, and expand the supply of quality consumption; Chongqing mentioned that it is necessary to seize the opportunity of cultivating and building an international consumption center city, implement "Ten Major Projects" such as upgrading international consumption carriers, deepen the eight major actions of "Bayu New Consumption", and consolidate the momentum of consumption recovery; Guangdong Province proposed to promote Guangzhou and Shenzhen to build international consumption center cities and expand the consumption of automobiles, household appliances and information.
At the above-mentioned regular press conference, Jin Xiandong also said that it is necessary to combine expanding consumption with improving people's quality of life, promote the creation of a high-quality consumption supply system with rich content, excellent quality and reasonable structure, and guide enterprises to increase the supply of cost-effective goods and services to fully meet the personalized, diversified and improved consumption needs of residents. Formulate relevant policies and measures in a timely manner, realize the simultaneous increase of residents' income and burden reduction, and support the continuous expansion of consumption with the general increase of urban and rural residents' income.
Many provinces have GDP growth targets below 7% in 2022. 3 By the end of 2022, 65438+1October 23rd, 29 provinces in China had announced their economic growth targets for 2022. What signals did the local two conferences convey this year?
Nearly 80% of the provinces' GDP growth rate reached 202 1.
According to the statistics of interface data, from the GDP completion of 202 1, nearly 80% of the 29 provinces have achieved the economic growth target of 202 1. Hubei exceeded the expected target most, and the completion rate of GDP in 202 1 year was 2.9 percentage points higher than the target value. Followed by Jiangsu and Beijing, which are 2.6 and 2.5 percentage points higher respectively. About 20% of the provinces failed to meet the standards. The GDP completion degree of Tibet 202 1 is the biggest difference from the target value, which is 2 percentage points lower. Followed by Yunnan and Henan, which were 0.7 and 0.5 percentage points lower respectively.
The average GDP target of 29 provinces in 2022 is 6.4%, and the median is 6.5%.
Judging from the distribution of GDP growth targets in 2022, the average GDP growth target of 29 provinces is 6.4%, and the median is 6.5%. Nearly 70% of provinces expect GDP growth of 6% and above this year.
More than 80% of provinces cut their GDP target growth rate.
Compared with the GDP growth targets in 20021and 2022, 29 provinces have lowered their GDP growth targets in 2022 by over 80%, with an average reduction of 0.8 percentage points. Hubei has the largest downward adjustment, with a downward adjustment of 3 percentage points. Followed by Shanxi, down 1.5 percentage points. The GDP growth target of nearly 20% provinces is the same as last year. No province has raised its GDP growth target.
Comparing the completion of GDP in 20021year with the GDP growth target in 2022, more than 80% of the 29 provinces' GDP growth target in 2022 is lower than that in 20021year. The GDP growth targets of Henan, Ningxia and Tibet in 2022 are higher than 202 1. Hebei's GDP growth target in 2022 is the same as 202 1.
What changes have been made in the expression of GDP growth target?
According to the statistics of interface data, about 30% of the 29 provinces use "above" to indicate the GDP growth target in 2022, and over 50% use "around". In contrast, among the 29 provinces in 202 1, nearly 60% use "above" to indicate the GDP growth target of 202 1, and nearly 30% use "around".
In the context of the central government's demand for moderate investment in advance, governments at all levels will be more active this year to ensure a good start in investment in the first quarter, forming a powerful effect of grasping projects and stabilizing growth.