Team Lin Yifu opened "Jilin Prescription"
On August 2 1 day, the Research Report on Economic Structure Transformation and Upgrading in Jilin Province (Draft for Comment) was officially released in Changchun, Jilin Province.
In view of "how to revitalize the northeast economy", economist Lin Yifu recently prescribed a prescription: Jilin Province should transform the textile industry, develop labor-intensive industries, and promote the continued development of heavy industry.
Question 1: Is Northeast China suitable for the development of light industry?
On August 23rd, Sun Jianbo, former chief strategist of Galaxy Securities, wrote an article questioning Lin Yifu's team's strategic suggestion of "fostering strengths and avoiding weaknesses". He doesn't think the northeast is a suitable transfer place for light industry. This is what he said:
Sun Jianbo: Northeast China needs to develop advantageous industries, not weak ones. Now in 2 1 century, textile and other light industries have a good foundation in China, Jiangsu, Zhejiang and other places, and are weak industries in Northeast China. If these industries are developed in Northeast China, the cost will be higher and the competitiveness will be weaker. In addition, if the cost of developing textile and other industries in Northeast China is too high, it is bound to rely on government subsidies. If subsidies are given, resources are actually used in places that should not be used, which will affect the development of advantageous industries. In my opinion, Northeast China should still make its advantageous industries stronger.
Response: Jilin cannot avoid the development stage of labor-intensive light industry.
On the same day, Wang Yong, deputy director of Peking University Xinjiegou Research Center, associate professor of economics and doctoral supervisor, responded to this. He pointed out that Jilin has the endowment advantage of developing modern light industry.
Wang Yong: One of the important reasons why we propose that Jilin should develop relatively labor-intensive industries is that our foothold is the factor endowment structure. Jilin's manufacturing industry only accounts for about 5% of employment, far below the national average, and its export ratio is also very low. A large number of laborers are still in agriculture, but the idea of Jilin's development has not yet achieved such a endowment structure.
From the data point of view, Jilin's light industry, such as Liaoyuan socks transferred from Zhejiang Datang, has developed very well in recent years. Moreover, what we propose to develop is the modern textile industry, which has the word "modern", so we do not refuse to absorb appropriate advanced technology and pursue high added value in our development.
On the same day, Fu Ye, researcher of Xinjiegou Research Center in Peking University and executive director of Jilin Research, wrote an article refuting the viewpoint. He pointed out that the proportion of working-age population and rural population is relatively large, so Jilin Province, which has saved the situation, has to vigorously develop labor-intensive light industry.
Fu: Northeast China, with a population of more than 100 million, is different from a district, county and city. Capital-intensive industries, mainly heavy chemical industries, have very weak ability to absorb employment. In order to solve the influence of labor resource endowment on employment, Jilin Province needs to develop labor-intensive industries at present.
As long as we improve and develop the soft and hard infrastructure in line with the potential comparative advantage industries and reduce the transaction costs, we can "lengthen the short board".
Question 2: It is difficult to make the economy develop sustainably only by talking about development without reform.
Tian Guoqiang, Dean of School of Economics, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, pointed out that the Research Report on Economic Structure Transformation and Upgrading in Jilin Province (Draft for Comment) basically did not emphasize the reform of institutional mechanisms. If we only talk about development and don't talk about reform and governance, it is difficult for the economy to achieve sustainable development.
Tian Guoqiang: Since it is an industrial policy proposal, it should be said that it should be led by the government.
Unlike decisions made by individuals and private enterprises, we must be cautious and cautious when proposing specific industrial policies. Once there is a problem with government policies, its impact will be comprehensive and long-term. Therefore, we should have risk awareness and firewall awareness, so that the government can minimize the risks in economic activities.
At the same time, the Research Report on the Transformation and Upgrading of Economic Structure in Jilin Province (Draft for Comment) basically did not emphasize the issues of reform and institutional mechanisms. If we only talk about development, not reform and governance, it will be difficult for the economy to achieve sustainable development.
Similar to others, Zhang, a researcher at the Corporate Finance Research Office of the Institute of Finance of China Academy of Social Sciences, also pointed out that Jilin's economic problems stem from non-economic factors and need the government to add vitality to regional development through "self-reform".
Zhang: What Jilin Province lacks most at present is the soil and environment that can effectively combine the key production factors and bring into play the benefits. Jilin's economic problems stem from non-economic factors. As the main body of positive action, the government needs to play a more active role in Jilin's economic revitalization. This role is not to ask the government how much money to run enterprises, nor is it just to ask the government how many policies to reduce taxes and fees. Instead, it requires the government to speed up "self-reform", loosen the shackles for enterprises and entrepreneurs, cover the bottom of social security, take the initiative to reduce government and decentralization, and reduce institutions and redundant staff.
Response: It is necessary to discuss the targeted measures of system reform in combination with industrial development.
On August 29th, Hui Li, a member of the research team, wrote that there may be misunderstanding that the report did not discuss the importance of system reform.
Huili: The problems of system and mechanism do exist and need to be deepened. However, if we expect institutional reform, the industry will spontaneously upgrade, which is not in line with empirical facts and remains to be discussed.
Professor Tian Guoqiang of Shanghai University of Finance and Economics thinks that the report does not discuss the importance of system reform, which may be a misunderstanding. In fact, in the report, we devoted a chapter to "Five Pushers for Promoting the Genealogy Growth of Five Industrial Clusters". The purpose of promoting enterprise cultivation and industrial development is to create a good business environment for enterprise development from five aspects: enterprise cultivation, attracting investment, investment and financing and industrial guidance funds, factor agglomeration and dual innovation, publicity and promotion, and cross-regional cooperation. We advocate discussing the corresponding targeted measures of system reform in combination with specific industrial development.
Question 3: It is more important to prevent the loss of technicians than to "complement each other"
On August 25th, Zhang, a professor at the Institute of Regional and Urban Economics of China Renmin University, published a long article, arguing that it is empty talk to optimize the economic structure in Northeast China without solving the brain drain problem first.
Zhang: For the northeast region where Jilin is located, the economic structure is not the key to revitalization. The most obvious symptom of depression is the massive outflow of technicians. This loss of technical personnel led to massive bleeding in the old industrial base. Bleeding, optimizing the economic structure is empty talk. It can be seen that preventing the loss of population, especially technical personnel, is more critical than the economic structure.
Response: If Jilin wants to retain talents, it needs to promote industrial development.
Hui Li, a member of the research group, pointed out that there is a difference between an area that is not suitable for survival and development and talents who want to stay or not. If Jilin wants to retain talents, it needs to take many measures to promote industrial development and let people see opportunities for career development in the local area.
Huili: the large-scale one-way flow of labor leaves home mainly because there are not enough industries in the local area to absorb these laborers. However, the existing industries can't provide a certain degree of "employment security", so there are some phenomena such as "one edition is hard to find" and "squeezing the scalp to test civil servants", which are criticized by most people. On the other hand, a healthy industrial system has not been formed. Looking at those areas with net population inflow (such as Chongqing, Hangzhou, Wuhan and other cities), it is not without institutional problems, but a large number of measures have been taken to promote industrial development, so that people can see the opportunities to seek career development in the local area.
Question 4: The New Territories Trench is not suitable for analyzing the shortcomings of Northeast development.
Zhang, a professor at the Institute of Regional and Urban Economics of Renmin University of China, said in a long article that the "new purchase restriction law" is not suitable for regional development.
Zhang: Professor Lin's proposal to identify the growth of Xinjiegou is not suitable for analyzing the shortcomings of regional development. The reason is that this analysis method mainly emphasizes the analysis of micro-enterprise level and regional endowment, and determining the direction of regional development is a strategic analysis, which needs to be carried out on a large regional spatial scale beyond the geographical boundary of the region itself. Although rational regional development strategy design attaches importance to the internal factor endowment, the grasp of external opportunities is much more important than the analysis of internal endowment.
Response: Lin Yifu's first acoustics theory will never be verified if it is not used to guide practice.
Lin Yifu, honorary president of the National Development Research Institute of Peking University, responded to this question. He believes that theory should come from practice and should also be practiced. Only through repeated practice and understanding can the knowledge of social science truly achieve the purpose of understanding and transforming the world.
Lin Yifu: The existing economic theories are still in the primary stage, and most of them are summarized from the experience of developed countries, while the situation in developed countries is mostly different from that in developing countries and countries in transition. Therefore, applying the mainstream theory of developed countries, Huainan is a bitter orange to Huaibei, which is inevitable.
However, if a theory is not used to guide practice, it will never be verified and it will be difficult to constantly improve. Therefore, in order to achieve the goal of "integration of knowledge and practice", I emphasize that theory comes from practice and also moves towards practice. In practice, if we can't prove the result, we should improve our cognition according to the new knowledge and guide the next practice with the new knowledge. Only through such repeated practice and understanding can the knowledge of social science achieve the purpose of understanding and transforming the world, just like learning to swim can only be learned in swimming pools, rivers, lakes and the sea, not on paper.
Question 5: What is the difference between the development experience of western countries and that of China?
Li Xi, Professor of Accounting Department of Hong Kong University of Science and Technology: Aren't developed countries also developing countries in the past? What is the difference between the development experience of most western countries and the current economic development of China? And many of our economic research methods are not from the west, are they?
Response: "Effective market" and "promising government" should be organically combined.
In this regard, Lin Yifu responded that Xinjiegou advocated the organic combination of "effective market" and "promising government".
Lin Yifu: There are similarities and differences. The same place is catching up. The difference is that when the United States began to catch up with Britain after the founding of the People's Republic of China, the per capita GDP was already 70% of that of Britain, while when many developing countries began to catch up with the United States after World War II, the per capita GDP was only 5% of that of the United States.
I don't agree to directly apply the experience of developed countries, because the applicability of experience, like theory, depends on whether its preconditions are similar.
Xinjiegou advocates the organic combination of "effective market" and "promising government", instead of just emphasizing "promising government". Unfortunately, many people only mention "promising government" when talking about the new structural economy, and then some people think that Xinjiegou only advocates "promising government", and even criticize Xinjiegou for the needs of market function.