Nationality: China China PassportNo.: G 1505387 1 Residence: Shanghai, China.
Position: Former Managing Director of Morgan Stanley and Asia-Pacific Economist
Title: Have ulterior motives to curb the overseas influence of A-shares and resolutely sing A-shares empty regardless of time.
Graduate school: Massachusetts Institute of Technology
His judgment on the situation and trend is accurate in most cases, which is due to his way of thinking-looking at the problem from the perspective of national conditions and fully considering the role of historical, cultural and traditional factors in influencing economic results.
Among Asian analysts with mainland background in Wall Street investment banks, Xie Guozhong is the best. This is a fact recognized by many peers in the industry. In the past three years, Xie, as an Asia-Pacific economist, was selected as the number one analyst in Asia by fund manager clients.
Xie Guozhong foresaw this trap before the Asian financial crisis broke out in 1997, so it was widely recognized by customers. He clearly saw that "there are huge structural problems in the Asian economy." This enabled him to make a more accurate judgment before the Asian financial crisis.
1At the beginning of 1997, Indonesia's trade surplus was still very high, with exports increasing by more than 20%. When the fiscal balance was balanced, Xie Guozhong issued a report saying that Indonesia's economy would collapse. Many people didn't believe it at that time. "I know that the biggest problem of Indonesian economy is corruption," Xie Guozhong said. Indonesia's wealth is empty, but it has been hollowed out. Foreigners don't want to put money in, and the empty shelf falls down.
In September of the same year, more than two months after Hong Kong's sovereignty returned to China, Xie Guozhong wrote a report that Hong Kong's real estate would fall by 50%. At that time, everyone thought it was bullshit. Xie Guozhong explained that he mainly looked at the supply level, and he saw that Hong Kong artificially inflated the capital bubble by controlling the supply of real estate to raise prices.
Also in the summer of 1997, Xie Guozhong saw another problem: deflation in China, and realized that China's economy would move from shortage to surplus. At that time, China's economic growth rate remained at a high level of 8%, and many people were optimistic about China's economy. Xie Guozhong's observation is that the shortage of many products leads to China's strong consumption desire. By around 1997, these short products were basically satisfied and the consumption desire began to decline. China, after all, is a country with low wealth accumulation, and cannot maintain a high level of consumption. Therefore, he proposed that deflation would be the main theme of China's economy in the next stage. This caused great controversy at that time.
However, these prescient observations were later proved to be correct, so Xie Guozhong was recognized by fund managers from 1998 and gradually gained their trust.
Now, Xie Guozhong is the most frequently cited analyst in Asia. Within the company, he is the head of Morgan Stanley's China Economic Research Group. Stephen roach, chief economist of Morgan Stanley, quoted the data calculated by Xie Guozhong in many speeches about China's economy-in China's nearly 8% economic growth rate, exports accounted for 74%.
Xie Guozhong believes that his judgment of the situation and trends can be accurate in most cases, thanks to his way of thinking-looking at the problem from the perspective of national conditions and fully considering the role of historical, cultural and traditional factors in influencing economic results. This way of thinking was gradually formed after Xie Guozhong went to study in the United States. At home, Xie Guozhong studies engineering. After arriving in the United States, he changed to economics because he felt that engineering was no longer a challenge for him. It was when he was studying for a Ph.D. in economics at MIT that he was deeply influenced by Professor Thoreau of the Department of Economics and thought that the complexity of economics was that everything was connected. Simply applying theoretical model can't fully explain practical problems. Looking at a pattern depends on what is primary and what is secondary.
After graduation, Xie Guozhong worked in the World Bank for five years. The role of this experience is to help him understand the special economic development model of Southeast Asia from a macro and national perspective. During his work in the World Bank, he had the opportunity to comprehensively inspect a country's entire financial system or an industry from top to bottom. For example, in Indonesia, one of his main jobs is to study the power industry in this country.
Now, Xie Guozhong is famous among its Asian peers for pursuing novel ideas and unique viewpoints, rather than following other people's advice.
However, people in the industry also pointed out that although the Xie Guozhong Institute covers a wide range, the analysis of some countries and fields is not rigorous and sufficient. In addition, due to the fierce competition among investment banks, Xie Guozhong sometimes tends to talk excessively, that is, he pursues the endless effect of what is called "nothing unexpected".
Xie Guozhong was a very clever man since he was a child. Since childhood, he has always been the first in school exams. Tongji is like this, and MIT is still like this. The only B is also "because I deliberately opposed the teacher".
Xie Guozhong, a Shanghainese, was born and raised in Sri Lanka until he went to study in the United States. He admitted that he had never encountered any setbacks in employment, and every job-hopping went smoothly. At present, he is firmly in the position of chief Asia-Pacific economist of Morgan Stanley (Asia). However, Xie Guozhong is very pragmatic about his outlook on life. He thinks it is most important for people to do what they want. At the same time, people should have self-restraint and patience. Not greedy, not eager for quick success. He said that the biggest weakness of China in the past decade was that many young people were eager for success, which led to exaggeration.
At least so far, Xie Guozhong is satisfied with his work. Because his job requires frequent exchanges and arguments with fund managers, he described it as a feeling of impending war. He said that he likes the excitement and novelty of debating with many people. Especially when the market situation is consistent with the predicted conclusion, he gained a great sense of accomplishment.
However, unlike the popular impression of Shanghainese, Xie Guozhong likes to think about big issues. He is listed as a "master" among investment bank economic analysts, because the breadth and depth of his knowledge and opinions are considered to be higher than all others. Xie Guozhong said that he has a soft spot for history. The two books he is reading recently are The British Empire and The Rise and Fall of the Roman Empire. -
Biographical notes
Xie Guozhong
1960 was born in Shanghai, 1983 graduated from the Road and Bridge Department of Tongji University in Shanghai, 1987 received a master's degree in civil engineering from MIT, and 1990 received a doctorate in economics from MIT. In the same year, he joined the World Bank as an economic analyst. During her five years in the World Bank, Xie Guozhong participated in projects in Latin America, South Asia and East Asia, and was in charge of the Bank's industrial and commercial development projects in Indonesia, as well as telecommunications and power development projects in other countries in the Asia-Pacific region. 65438-0995 Joined Macquarie Bank of Singapore as co-director of corporate finance department. 1997 joined Morgan Stanley and became an economist in the Asia-Pacific region. In 2007, I left Morgan Stanley for personal reasons. Now I'm going to set up my own research team and set up a private equity "investment club" open only to acquaintances, with a capital scale of 200 million to 300 million dollars, which will invest in unlisted companies in China.
Masons Xie Guozhong once published an article:
A. "Research" on Xie Guozhong Oil:
1, oil price will bear market for a long time, March 5, 2003, source: Century Business Herald.
2. "China oil price plummets next year", June 2004 1, source: Information Times.
3. Oil Bubble Will Punch Real Estate Bubble, September 2004 15, Source: New Fortune Magazine.
4. "Bearish oil and bullish coal", 65438+2005124 October, source: Securities Daily.
5. Soaring oil price is also a bubble, March 2005 14, source: Securities Daily.
6. Decline in demand and oil price in the next few years, June 5438+February 65438+June 2005, source: shanghai securities news.
7. International oil price will collapse, June 20, 2006, Source: China Oil News.
8. Oil price will fall below $30 in one year, 65438+2007124 October, source: Finance and Economics.
9. "Oil price will drop to $ 20-25 this year", August 20, 2007, source: China entrepreneurs.
B, Xie Guozhong real estate "research":
1, "China's economy is facing adjustment and the real estate bubble will burst", September 27, 2004, source: Securities Daily.
2. The biggest real estate bubble in history will burst in the near future June 2004 10, source: Securities Daily.
3. China real estate will repeat the mistakes of automobiles, 165438+2004125 October, source: 265438+20th Century Business Herald.
4. "China's economic bubble is bigger or falls sharply in 2005", 65438+February 20th, 2004, source: Securities Market Weekly.
5. The Shanghai Real Estate Bubble is Hard to Break, February 27, 2005, Source: China Business News.
6. China real estate market is a copy of Southeast Asia 10 years ago, March 2005 16, source: Shenzhen Special Zone Daily.
7. The next phase of real estate slowdown will begin in half a year. August 30, 2005 Source: Securities Daily.
C. "Research" on Xie Guozhong Stock Market:
1, China's economic bubble was bigger or fell sharply in 2005, 2004, 65438+February 20th, source: Securities Market Weekly.
2. The biggest bubble in history, 65438+February 26th, 2005, source: blog China.
3. Hot money broke out after leaving Asia for half a year, June 5438+1October 2 1, source: Financial Times.
4. Hidden Risks of Excess Liquidity Beware of the Stock Market Bubble 200765438+10.9 Source: Finance and Economics.
5, "The shock of the next two months", March 5, 2007 Source: Chengdu Evening News.
6. "The government should not save the market. A shares plunged for two months ",March 2, 20071,source: Phoenix.
7. See the top, March 23, 2007, Source: Caijing.
8. The government should introduce policies to prevent the stock market from entering the bubble era, April 28, 2007 Source: Netease Finance.
9. The stock market bubble will burst without government intervention, May 2007 15 Source: Economic Daily.
10, "Suggest that the government levy a capital gains tax to cool the stock market" May 2007 19 Source: Southern Weekend.
1 1, China stock market crash has occurred, July 2007 10 Source: China Economic Net.