Text/"Financial Weekly" reporter Wen Li

At present, China's macroeconomic policy is facing a "dilemma".

The People's Bank of China has raised the statutory deposit reserve ratio of commercial banks by 50 basis points since February 24th. After this increase, the statutory deposit reserve ratio of large banks and small and medium banks will reach 19.5% and 17.5% respectively. The central bank still believes that inflation risks are increasing and intends to continue to tighten policies.

"After China adopts the austerity policy, it is necessary to guard against economic downside risks and prevent a large number of' half-pull projects'." Wu Jinglian, a well-known economist and researcher of the State Council Development Research Center, said in an exclusive interview with the reporter of Caijing National Weekly that we should avoid the problems of excessive currency and re-leverage of balance sheets, and at the same time, we should not relax macro policies.

Wu Jinglian believes that during the Twelfth Five-Year Plan period, the solution to the dilemma is to promote the transformation of economic development mode through reform.

From the Ninth Five-Year Plan to the Twelfth Five-Year Plan, this slogan has been shouted for many years. Wu Jinglian said that the crux of years of ineffectiveness still lies in the system.

"The main driving force for transforming the economic development mode in the Twelfth Five-Year Plan comes from the reform and transformation of the economic system." Wu Jinglian said that the establishment of a new system under the auspices of the government is not as specific as a mandatory plan, but it needs a framework design.

Wu Jinglian, who is 8 1 year old and still full of silver hair, speaks firmly of reform. He said that there are still many problems left over from the old system. Using the old system to promote the transformation will lead to a situation similar to the "Great Leap Forward" abroad, which will lead to some negative consequences.

As one of the founders of the discipline of comparative institutional analysis in China, Wu Jinglian has always insisted on the market-oriented reform. In the early 1980s, economists such as Wu Jinglian used the research results of comparative institutional analysis to analyze and compare the transaction costs of planned and market resource allocation methods, demonstrated the rationality and inevitability of establishing a socialist market economy in China, and put forward a theoretical framework for the overall design of China's economic reform.

Wu Jinglian believes that China needs to understand what kind of economic system will be established through reform. He said that according to past experience, making a good plan can't solve all the problems, but how to implement it well is more important.

After more than 30 years of reform, China has changed from a poor country to an economic power, which proves that it is correct to adopt a gradual reform method, which is easy first and difficult later. But this way of reform is not always correct.

Continuing to push forward the reform will not be successfully completed in a short time. At present, because the interest groups that hinder the reform have solidified, Wu Jinglian said that the reform needs a lot of efforts. Take the pulse of China's economic transformation

Text/"Financial Weekly" reporter Wen Li

Guo Shuqing believes that there are two main problems in China's economic development: first, whether the industrial structure can be continuously upgraded; The second is how to change the urban-rural dual system.

"Imbalance", "risk" and "reform" are the concepts that Guo Shuqing mentioned many times in his two-hour conversation with the reporter of Caijing National Weekly.

As the bank is about to announce its first half results to the market, it is currently in the prescribed "silent period". He smiled and said, "You can't ask questions about the operation of banks."

As the chairman of China Construction Bank, the world's second largest bank by market value, Guo Shuqing is more willing to go beyond the banking industry itself and explore China's mid-and long-term transformation proposition. He believes that there are two main problems in China's economic development. First, whether the industrial structure can be continuously upgraded; The second is how to change the urban-rural dual system.

Looking back on Guo Shuqing's resume, he worked in the State Planning Commission and the State Commission for Economic Restructuring in his early years, was one of the participants and designers of China's economic system reform, and served as the vice governor of Guizhou Province for three years. He is very familiar with the unbalanced, uncoordinated and unsustainable problems in China.

In view of the difficulties faced by the current market-oriented reform, Guo Shuqing told reporters that market-oriented reform, especially the marketization of production factors such as labor, land and capital, is different from commodity marketization, with more prominent information asymmetry, more difficult supervision, stronger impact and fluctuation, and the country is more cautious. He believes that on the one hand, vested interests have formed obstacles to reform; On the other hand, there are cognitive barriers, and sometimes it is difficult to weigh the pros and cons.

Guo Shuqing is a banker, an official and a scholar. In addition to scholars and administrative officials, Guo Shuqing has rich experience in China's financial system. First, he served as deputy governor of the central bank, director of the safe, and concurrently served as chairman of the Central Huijin Company. In 2005, he parachuted into CCB as the chairman and promoted the listing of CCB.

Banking is a barometer of macro-control in China. Through the adjustment of bank balance sheet, we can re-examine the transformation of China from a new angle, go deep into the whole macro-economy and understand its operation logic. Guo Shuqing's long-term employment in two departments-bank and government-are also institutions that play a decisive role in China's short-term economic growth and long-term development.

Government departments are not only decision makers of short-term macroeconomic policies, but also traders of economic reforms, providing institutional dividends for the long-term economic development of China. The determination and strength of government departments to promote a series of deep-seated economic reforms will play a decisive role in whether China's economy can truly realize transformation.

Our dialogue with Guo Shuqing is based on the short-term forecast and long-term reform of China's macro-economy, and the resulting bank linkage.